Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
ECB faces binary decision on rates, says Dutch central bank chief
Olaf Sleijpen, president of the Dutch central bank, told a finance podcast that the European Central Bank’s upcoming Governing Council meeting will centre on either raising interest rates further or keeping them unchanged. He noted the discussion will take place in Frankfurt in a few weeks when the board reviews fresh inflation data.
The onshore yuan slipped modestly against the dollar as markets absorbed fresh developments in the Iran‑Israel war and China’s diplomatic warnings over the Hormuz crisis. Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel, while Beijing urged restraint, underscoring the link between geopolitical risk and China’s currency.
When B Books fail. I still remmember the GBPJPY trade of 2005-2006 like it was yesterday. I was working for FXCM whic was teh biggest retai dealer at the time and of course like dealers the delaing room was rarely offsetting risk...
This morning on @asharqbusiness discussing inflation, ECB rate hikes, buying the dip on gold and other macroeconomic data. 📊
Since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began in late February, the U.S. Dollar Index has risen sharply, pulling down precious‑metal prices. The dollar’s strength is tied to a parallel surge in crude oil, which jumped from the $60s to around...
EM rallying while the dollar firms is a tough combo to sustain. If it breaks, it breaks fast. Where does the pressure show up first when this snaps? em
These FT charts illustrate the shift in market expectations for policy actions by the world’s major central banks. The change has been particularly striking for central banks with a single mandate (of price stability). #economy #markets #centralbanks @financialtimes
Swiss National Bank Chairman announced that the central bank is prepared to push policy rates into negative territory, but acknowledges a high hurdle before such a move. He emphasized that while the policy rate remains the primary tool, foreign‑exchange intervention...
Pro Level Setup 💎 Clean structure, liquidity grab, and strong move down. Patience + precision = consistency. Trade smart, not fast. #Trading #Forex #SmartMoney #ICT #PriceAction
UK importers buying from China face cost volatility because most Chinese suppliers invoice in US dollars, forcing businesses to manage both GBP/USD and USD/CNY pairs. A 5‑10% swing in the pound can instantly raise cost of goods sold, while freight...
The National Bank of Hungary kept its key policy rate at 6.25% on 24 March, reflecting a hawkish stance amid Middle‑East tensions and an energy‑price shock. Inflation fell to a ten‑year low, but the bank expects it to stabilize around 4%...
Macro: ZAR down 1.7% as a firm USD pressures EM FX. Key: stronger dollar despite improved SA leading indicator. Risk: Iran headlines could spike oil and force risk-off. Trade: short ZAR/USD on USD momentum 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More...
European banks have formed a consortium called Qivalis to issue a euro‑denominated stablecoin, marking the first large‑scale, bank‑led effort to internationalise the euro in digital form. The project receives backing from the European Central Bank’s regulatory sandbox, signaling official support...
The article examines why the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have taken divergent monetary‑policy paths in response to the Iran‑Israel conflict. While the Fed has kept policy tight, emphasizing inflation control and using liquidity facilities to cushion market...
The Indian rupee weakened to 93.73 against the dollar, its lowest level in months, after crude oil prices jumped and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) grappled with divergent views on monetary tightening. Traders cite the oil shock and a...
One of the foundations of the US reserve currency status is the 1970s Nixon-KSA agreement that the US provides military protection in return for recycling of Petrodollars into the US bond market. When President Trump says things like that "we...
War, Dollar @ 93–94, Gulf Risk — Will NRI Money Rotate to India and Push Gurgaon Real Estate? This is not fear talk. This is capital-flow math. Right now rupee has touched ~93–94 per USD during the Middle-East war volatility, near record lows....
The IMF’s COFER database shows the U.S. dollar still commands roughly 60% of global foreign‑exchange reserves, keeping its status as the premier reserve currency. Over the past decade the euro and Chinese yuan have inched upward, while the British pound...
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
Interesting FX options expiring tomorrow: $1.1605 for 1.8 bln euros, Thurs ~1.4 bln euros at $1.16. JPY160 for $885 mln A$1.4 bln at $0.6950. $420 mln at CAD1.3785 and $590 mln at CAD1.38. DTCC listed.
Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2026 Indian growth outlook to 5.9%, down from a pre‑war 7% estimate, citing higher oil prices and prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank now projects inflation at 4.6% and expects the Reserve Bank...
The US Money Supply grew 5% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since June 2022. After a brief hiatus, money printing is back. https://t.co/bnnPEsB9x6
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Rally Fails at 100 – Bulls Face Decision Point https://t.co/0qMDRVx9to $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/fcyIgceNQF
The piece contends that foreign‑exchange trading occurs in distinct liquidity pockets rather than a steady stream. Critical windows are the Tokyo 8:55 AM fix, the 7:00 AM London open, the 4:00 PM London WMR fix, and month‑end balance‑sheet rebalancing, each offering a unique...
Volatility on the $DXY Dollar Index keeps has climbed to a 9 month high - when measured by the 20-day ATR. Meanwhile, the 20-day range has leveled out and contracted. So, scenarios: either volatility drops to accommodate range or breakout...
Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch. https://t.co/ixdOHnatCg
Westpac projects Australia’s February CPI to rise 0.1% month‑on‑month, keeping the annual rate at 3.8% for a third straight month. Underlying inflation measured by the trimmed mean is expected at 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y, indicating persistent price pressures. The...
The thing is -- There has been NO dollar reserve accumulation in aggregate over the last ten years. And there was a ton of dollar reserve accumulation during the preceding 10ys (way more than needed for precautionary purposes) https://t.co/GGry0kCOk2
Every single trading day the market runs the same playbook 🌏 Asia → builds the range 🇬🇧 London → makes the move 🇺🇸 New York → continues or reverses Register for our FREE class 👇 Saturday March 28th 7am ET / 11 GMT https://t.co/fn6x49CI6W https://t.co/S1azseaO9G
Japan’s February consumer‑price inflation slowed to 1.3% YoY, driven by lower fresh‑food and utility costs, while core‑core inflation stayed near 2.5% above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Wage negotiations indicate a 5.26% average increase, and PMI readings remain in...
$DXY firm + oil firm is the combo nobody wants to model. It’s a slow tax on margins that shows up AFTER the ‘soft landing’ victory lap. https://t.co/ocSH3ICv0N
This chart really says it all from Torsten Slock. The volatility controllers will do anything in their power to get these rates down or things could really snowball in the wrong direction. Can't wait to see what acronyms come out of the...
The Israeli shekel remains above NIS 3 per U.S. dollar, its strongest post‑war level, driven by defense contracts, natural‑gas exports and high‑tech capital. At the same time, dozens of ancient shekel coins were seized in a smuggling bust, underscoring the currency’s...
The National Bank of Ukraine increased its foreign‑exchange market intervention by 29.6%, reaching $1.34 bn. The move seeks to curb hryvnia depreciation, support inflation targets and signal resilience despite ongoing conflict.
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 86% against the USD over the past year. The only thing that will salvage Venezuela is DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/HsoegSMSO1
Thailand’s baht is projected to weaken further, potentially reaching 33.5 per U.S. dollar this week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify. The dollar’s safe‑haven appeal and rising U.S. bond yields are bolstering its strength, while regional currencies slide...
I spend a lot of time tracking dollar reserve growth. Probably more time than anyone at the Fund. And I absolutely believe that the surge in reserve growth contributed to the rise in imbalances before the...
Ray Dalio told the World Governments Summit in Dubai that the global monetary system is entering a "capital war" and that gold is now the safest form of money. He linked the erosion of fiat currencies and sovereign debt to...
UBS Group AG has been barred from offering range target profit forwards (RTPFs) to Swiss retail clients after the products caused deep losses for a small group of investors last year. The bank now limits RTPFs to professional investors and...
Markets are WILD right now 🔥 Iran war? Pause? Nobody knows. But here's what I DO know... The only edge that's working consistently right now is the ORB strategy. When markets run the highs or the lows = high confidence trade every...
The EU is desperate to preserve monetary sovereignty, which is under attack by US stablecoins. That’s why S&P’s analysis is good news for the EU and ECB, which is in damage control mode, speeding digital euro launch. S&P Global...
Barbados confronted a 2018 crisis with public debt soaring to 179% of GDP and reserves falling to roughly $110 million USD. It introduced the homegrown Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan, swiftly moving to a primary surplus, restructuring debt and...
Johns Hopkins PhD Trita Parsi is on to something. What Parsi reports helps explain why the Iranian Rial has soared by 12% against the USD during the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran.
Scenario guidance is going to take some getting used to. Especially when the BoE gets hold of it, and each member of the MPC sets out their own different scenarios (3 scenarios each, 9 members) 🤣
Latest episode of our Trading Global Macro Podcast: From Hormuz to Washington DC: Recalibrating the 2026 Rate Outlook https://t.co/SWQ3mEPyhx
The hope of a short-end to the war on Iran sees the Fed funds futures market swing back to a (small chance) of a cut this year--2 bp--. It was around 7 bp of tightening before the weekend and 61...
It's amazing what getting backstopped by the U.S. can do for a nation with a currency crisis.
India rupee: 94/USD. Rs 80,000 crore of foreign capital pulled from India in March alone. DXY near 100. Oil at $112. That combination is an emerging market wrecking ball. Few understand this. https://t.co/urDfdNX6YF
funny how things change. This is how Fed staff assessed the risks to dollar after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 https://t.co/XydwiGbPI5
EURUSD has really been building on the initial spike higher shortly after 7am ET https://t.co/JXZcl7G8Dr
This isn't quite true -- at least not always. Under the initial Bretton Woods system capital outflows (including FDI) from the US provided the buildup of fx reserves globally; the US didn't run a current account deficit until the 70s. 1/2
