Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee Holds Steady as West Asia Truce Hopes Bolster Sentiment
The Indian rupee stayed flat on market optimism that a West Asia cease‑fire will hold, even as early trade saw it dip 8 paise to ₹95.78 per dollar.
The Federal Reserve Is Quickly Running Out of Reasons to Cut Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve’s window for cutting rates is narrowing as recent data show a steadier labor market but persistent inflation. April’s payrolls rose by 115,000, a modest gain that eases pressure for easing, while the March CPI held at 3.3%, well above the 2% target. Fed officials, including Goldman Sachs and Brown Brothers Harriman strategists, signal a shift toward a more hawkish stance, removing the easing bias from upcoming statements. New Chair Kevin Warsh, appointed by President Trump, now faces a tough mandate to justify any rate cuts amid rising price pressures.
Half of Fed Forecasters Now Expect No Rate Cuts This Year
More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP. Half now see no cuts this year (and risks are clearly tilted to this group continuing to grow given inertial...
Next Week’s Menu: May 9-15, 2026
Larry Greenberg’s weekly menu outlines a dense slate of economic releases for May 9‑15, 2026, covering U.S. indicators such as producer prices, retail sales, and industrial production, alongside key data from China, Japan, the Eurozone, and emerging markets. The calendar also notes...
Global FX: Yentervention and Other FX Policy Stories
In this episode, Arindam Sandhile and his global team dissect the current FX landscape, focusing on Japan's recent yen intervention, the limited upside for the dollar amid uncertain Fed policy, and the performance of real‑rate currencies like the Norwegian krone...
Dollar's Reserve Role Erodes as Allies Shift Amid NATO Tensions
'US dollar as reserve currency has been in long-term decline. Lists a long list of contributing factors, notably also states that if history is any guide, countries keep reserves with allies, and NATO tensions may negative impact Treasury holdings.' @B_Eichengreen...
Korea, Taiwan Post Record Surpluses Amid Currency Weakness
The surpluses of Korea and Taiwan this year will be incredible The fact that these surpluses coincide with a historically weak Korean won and continued deep weakness in the Taiwan dollar is most interesting
ECB's Nagel: ECB Will Do Whatever Necessary to Him He Energy Price Surge
ECB Deputy Governor Peter Nagel warned that the central bank is prepared to act decisively to curb a fresh surge in energy prices, which he said could reignite inflation risks across the eurozone. He emphasized that the ECB remains highly alert...
USDCAD Runs up to Key Resistance Target and Finds Willing Sellers
USDCAD rose to a session high of 1.3710 after a stronger‑than‑expected U.S. jobs report and a weaker Canadian jobs report, then reversed at a key resistance zone. The resistance cluster includes the 38.2% retracement, the 1.3709‑1.3715 swing area, and the...
Asia’s Heat Waves and Oil Shock Push Inflation to Multi‑Year Peaks
Heat waves linked to El Niño and a lingering oil price shock have driven inflation to multi‑year highs across emerging Asian economies. The Philippines and Pakistan saw consumer price inflation climb above 7% and 11% respectively, intensifying pressure on central banks...
ECB's Lagarde’s Digital Euro Warning: Why Europe Shouldn’t Just Copy the U.S. Stablecoin Model
ECB President Christine Lagarde cautioned that the $310 billion stablecoin market, dominated by U.S. dollar‑pegged tokens, poses systemic risks that could spill over into asset markets during stress. She argued Europe should not replicate the private stablecoin model but instead develop...
Israeli Shekel Pushes Foreign‑Exchange Reserves to Record $235.7 Bn
Israel’s foreign‑exchange reserves climbed to a record $235.7 bn at the end of April 2026, up $6.3 bn from March. The surge stemmed from a $7.5 bn revaluation of assets as the shekel strengthened, offset by $1.2 bn of government foreign‑exchange activity.
Powell Warns Removal Power Threatens Fed Independence
David Wilcox points out Powell, without being explicitly asked about, pointed to the governors' ability to remove regional Fed Presidents as a risk to independence in his latest press conference. @HooverInst https://t.co/J4Uy69mrei https://t.co/Q0ltpyO3sf
ECB Fears Euro Stablecoins Due to Dollar Deficit
In today's Daily Peg, I allege that the ECB's real paranoia about euro-denominated stablecoins stems from a fundamental and structural dollar deficit across the eurosystem. https://t.co/2oIVNDBppn
Fed Data Suggest Japan Sold U.S. Debt Amid Intervention
The Federal Reserve reported a $8.7 billion drop in its custody of marketable U.S. Treasuries, bringing the total to $2.73 trillion for the week ending May 6. The decline coincides with Japan’s Ministry of Finance spending roughly $55 billion to support the yen, suggesting...
Last Bank of Mexico Interest Rate Cut
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) confirmed a 25‑basis‑point cut on May 7, bringing the overnight interbank rate to 6.5 %. The move concludes a tightening cycle that began in March 2024 after the policy rate peaked at 11.25 % in early 2024. Inflation has...
Kevin Warsh Struggles to Push Rate Cuts At
It’s getting harder for Kevin Warsh to come into the Fed and push for rate cuts, if he even still wants them…
India Forex Reserves Drop $7.8 Bn; Rupee Weakens to 94.47 Against the Dollar
India’s foreign exchange reserves fell $7.8 billion in the week to May 1, bringing the total down to $690.7 billion, the second consecutive weekly decline. The drop was driven by a $5.0 billion reduction in gold holdings and a $2.8 billion fall in foreign currency...
April Jobs Data Frees Fed to Focus on Inflation
The April jobs report allows the Fed to sweat over inflation (as opposed to inflation *and* jobs) https://t.co/6iYFTTwKfI
Ruble Set to Remain Strong as Export Revenues Bolster Currency, Central Bank Says
The Bank of Russia warned that a surge in export earnings will keep the ruble strong in the coming months. It linked the currency's resilience to a 5.9% inflation rate in Q1 2026 and a path toward a 4% target...
Indonesia Defends Economy as Rupiah Hits Record Low, Tightens Dollar Rules
Indonesia's central bank announced tighter controls on dollar purchases as the rupiah fell below 17,400 per USD, while Governor Perry Warjiyo insisted the economy is healthy, citing 5.61% Q1 growth. The measures aim to limit further currency weakness amid global...
McDowell Cited in Bloomberg Article on How Swap Lines Could Undermine Faith in the Dollar
The Bloomberg piece spotlights U.S. dollar swap lines, a network of credit arrangements that let foreign central banks tap emergency dollar liquidity. Daniel McDowell, an Atlantic Council expert, warns that the growing reliance on these lines could signal underlying dollar...
ECB Relieved by EURUSD Rally, Fears Below 1.05
It won't move the needle for the ECB in June, but it's a relief for the bank that EURUSD is rallying, all the same. Nightmare for them would be a trap door to 1.05 or lower exacerbating imported inflation.
US Jobs Surge, Defying Slowdown; Fed Rate Hopes Rise
US NFPs beat expectations and pushes back against economic slowdown concerns. April net jobs +115K vs +62K expected and +185K previously. Jobless rate holds at 4.3% That will further boost Fed expectations but wont dissuade the President from calls of cuts to...
Kenya Converts $3.5 Bn of Chinese Loans to Yuan, Sparking Wider African Diversification
Kenya’s Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi confirmed the conversion of $3.5 bn of dollar‑denominated Chinese loans into renminbi in October 2025, a move aimed at cutting interest costs. The swap signals a broader, pragmatic trend across Africa toward yuan usage in...
April NFP Surpasses Forecast, Unemployment Steady at 4.3%
April Non-Farm Payrolls print at 115K vs expected 65K- Previously 185K Unemployment Holds 4.3% as expected #NFP
US Jobs Boosted as Dollar Slides Post‑Tariff Ruling
US Jobs on Tap after Court Ruled Against Section 122 Tariffs and Conflict in the Middle East: After recovering in the North American afternoon for the second consecutive session yesterday, the dollar has been sold again in Asia and Europe...
Japan Spends $64 Bn to Defend Yen as It Swings Between ¥160 and ¥155 per Dollar
Japanese authorities have poured roughly $64 bn into foreign‑exchange markets since April 30, triggering dramatic yen swings from a near‑¥160 per dollar low to a ¥155 level. The moves have revived debate over direct government intervention and Japan’s free‑floating exchange‑rate regime.
USD Softens Pre‑jobs Report as Markets Ignore Europe Woes
$USD has a softer profile today, ahead of the jobs report. The mkt appears to have largely shrugged off the sharp defeat of Labour in UK local elections and an unexpected decline in German industrial output. Tensions running high in...
BoJ JGB Purchases Neutralize FX Intervention, Yen Slides
The Yen is already falling again. Markets know Japan's official FX intervention can't work as long as the BoJ is buying JGBs to cap yields. That JGB buying puts depreciation pressure on the Yen, so intervention just gives markets a...
Sterling's Resilience and China’s Tactical Game
In this episode of the Currency Exchange podcast, NatWest Markets’ G10FX strategist Paul Robson explains why sterling has remained surprisingly resilient despite Middle‑East turmoil, citing safe‑haven flows, historic UK‑GCC links, and limited fast‑money pressure. He then assesses the impact of...
Turkey's Self‑imposed Dollar Peg Drains FX Reserves
Across all EMs, Turkey has seen by far the biggest drop in official FX reserves. That's an entirely self-inflicted wound and reflects the decision to keep the Lira pegged to the Dollar through a shock where it should obviously have...
The Bermuda Triangle
The article warns that the push for the UAE to raise U.S.‑dollar swap lines exposes a looming liquidity crunch in private‑credit markets. Since Covid, “mark‑to‑model” financing of U.S. tech has moved from IPO exits to private‑market structures, spawning a chain...
Christine Lagarde: Stablecoins and the Future of Money: Separating Functions From Instruments
Christine Lagarde warned that stablecoins, now over $300 billion in value, are reshaping both monetary demand and settlement infrastructure. While the EU’s MiCAR framework brings them under regulation, the speech highlighted that most stablecoins are US‑dollar pegged and dominated by Tether...
Stablecoins and Money's Future at LatAm Forum
Follow live from 09:00 CET as I speak at the LatAm Economic Forum, organised by @BancoDeEspana. I will discuss stablecoins and the future of money. Watch here https://t.co/qunwAimIBw
FX Daily: Back on the Rollercoaster
U.S. military actions in the Strait of Hormuz revived optimism for a dollar rally as hopes for a near‑term U.S.–Iran deal faded. The euro stayed resilient around 1.18 USD despite President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on EU goods, while the...
Rupee Falls 45 Paise to 94.67 Against US Dollar in Early Trade
India's rupee weakened to 94.67 per U.S. dollar in early Friday trade, slipping 45 paise from the previous close. The decline coincided with Brent crude climbing back to $101 a barrel after U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire near the...
Japan’s Real Wages Rose in March, Boosting Odds of a June Hike
Japan’s real wages rose 2.7% year‑on‑year in March, marking the third straight month of growth, while regular salaries climbed 3.0% and bonuses fell 1.5%. Tokyo’s CPI increased only 1.5% YoY in April, a figure softened by temporary government price caps....
Investors Dump Indian Assets as Energy Shock Sends Rupee Sliding
Investors are pulling billions from Indian equities and bonds after a sharp energy price shock pushed the rupee to its weakest level in months. Foreign portfolio outflows reached roughly $5 billion in the latest reporting week, while the rupee slipped to...
Peso Rebounds as Oil Prices Tumble
Big reversal in FX markets this week. Philippine Peso outperforms after hitting new lows week prior. Helps that oil's off highs a lot https://t.co/7lfET7ggd4
Rupee Gains 36 Paise to a Dollar as Oil Retreats
The Indian rupee rallied more than a rupee against the US dollar, climbing to 94.25 per dollar, up 36 paise from the previous close. The bounce followed four days of declines that saw the rupee hit a lifetime low of 95.28....
Citi Targets Hedge Funds, Private Equity in FX Growth Push
Citigroup is launching a focused push to win hedge‑fund and private‑equity business for its foreign‑exchange (FX) desk. The move comes as global FX trading volumes climb, offering fresh revenue streams beyond Citi’s traditional corporate and real‑money flows. Flavio Figueiredo, Citi’s...
EUR/JPY Holds Near 183.50 as German Factory Orders Surge and Yen Stays Firm
Germany's March factory orders surged 5% month‑over‑month, pushing the euro higher, but the EUR/JPY cross stayed flat around 183.50 as the Japanese yen remained firm. Traders are watching upcoming Eurozone retail sales data and signals from the Bank of Japan,...
Philippine Peso Gains 1.6% on Oil Price Relief, Eyes Stronger Trade Balance
The Philippine peso rose 1.6% to 60.345 per dollar, its strongest daily gain in a month, after oil prices slipped on optimism surrounding a potential US‑Iran peace deal. The move lifts the peso from its status as Asia's worst performer...
China's Forex Reserves Jump to $3.41 Trillion in April, Outpacing Forecasts
China's central bank reported foreign‑exchange reserves of $3.411 trillion for April, surpassing the Reuters poll estimate of $3.36 trillion. The rise, driven by a weaker US dollar, coincided with a 0.83% appreciation of the yuan, suggesting robust capital inflows.
Mocking Jeff: Buy Gold, Short The
So Jeff. Just buy gold and short the dollar bro. Cuz you have lost your mind https://t.co/N6gmcw3inN
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.8138 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8138, the daily midpoint that anchors the yuan’s onshore market. China’s managed‑floating regime allows the renminbi to trade within a ±2% band around this midpoint, giving...
Rial Rebounds Sharply From Lows Despite 10‑day Decline
The Iranian rial’s performance over the last few days: 1. Today, depreciated 0.5% against the USD. 2. Appreciated 9.1% vs. the USD from all-time lows 3 days ago. 3. In the last 10 days, depreciated 9.5% against the USD https://t.co/RcBXFmfctl
Japan Wage Growth Streak Hits Three Months, Putting June BOJ Move in Focus
Japan's real wages rose 1.0% year‑on‑year in March, marking a third consecutive month of growth and signaling a labour market that is translating nominal wage gains into purchasing power. Total cash earnings increased 2.7% YoY, falling short of the 3.2%...
Russia Sells Ruble, Buys Yuan to Curb Appreciation
Since the US-Israeli war on Iran, oil prices have SURGED & so has the value of the Russian ruble. To prevent the ruble from excessive strengthening, Russia is SELLING the ruble & BUYING foreign currency, primarily the Chinese yuan. https://t.co/zThMoq7cun
Ringgit Gains to 3.92/USD Ahead of Bank Negara’s OPR Decision
The Malaysian ringgit strengthened to 3.9230‑3.9275 per US dollar on Thursday, buoyed by falling oil prices and a softer US dollar index. Traders are eyeing Bank Negara Malaysia’s overnight policy rate (OPR) meeting, where the rate is widely expected to...