Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee Holds Steady as West Asia Truce Hopes Bolster Sentiment
The Indian rupee stayed flat on market optimism that a West Asia cease‑fire will hold, even as early trade saw it dip 8 paise to ₹95.78 per dollar.
ZiG Stability Drives 417% Surge in Zimbabwe Stock Turnover
The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) attributed a 416.83% jump in quarterly turnover to the stabilising ZiG currency, with inflation falling to 3.8% and the exchange rate holding at 25.57 per dollar. The surge propelled VFEX market capitalisation to $4 billion and attracted fresh listings, despite the delisting of Econet Wireless Zimbabwe.
Yen Surge Could Trigger Oil Price Crash
Japan's Yen Surge: The Oil Shock Threat Explained. We explore the real risk of a 'tail event' from Japan, focusing on a potential Yen surge and its devastating impact on oil prices. Discover the economic domino effect. TailEvent #YenSurge #JapanEconomy...
European Central Bank and Reserve Bank of India Sign Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation
The European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of India signed a new Memorandum of Understanding on May 10, 2026, updating their 2015 cooperation framework. The agreement, sealed on the sidelines of the BIS meeting in Basel, creates a structured channel for...
Looking Back at Jerome Powell's 8-Year Term as Federal Reserve Chair
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell concludes his eight‑year tenure on May 15, 2026, but will stay on the Board as a governor. In an NPR interview, former Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker praised Powell’s steady, consensus‑building style and his forceful...
Bank of Ghana Posts GH¢15.6bn Loss as Cedi Slides, Sparking Fresh Currency Pressure
The Bank of Ghana disclosed a GH¢15.6 billion (about $1.1 billion) loss for 2025, driven by costly open‑market operations, revaluation and exchange‑rate losses. The deficit comes as the cedi weakens further despite inflation falling to single digits and reserves rising.
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – May 11th, 2026
The euro‑dollar pair climbed last week as markets priced in a possible US‑Iran peace deal, easing concerns that the Federal Reserve would need to resume aggressive rate hikes. Analysts argue the rally reflects reduced geopolitical risk rather than fundamental euro...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – May 11th, 2026
USDCAD climbed during the first week of May 2026, pushing the pair toward the 1.3600‑1.3650 range. Analysts highlighted a key resistance level near 1.3700 that could determine the next directional move. An Elliott Wave count frames the rally as a...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – May 11th, 2026
USDJPY fell for a second consecutive week, testing the 155.00 support level. The support held, providing temporary relief for bulls despite broader yen weakness. Elliott Wave analysis frames the move as a corrective wave, with the 155.00 floor acting as...
Goldman Sachs Ups On‑shore Yuan Forecast as Export Surge Fuels Valuation Case
Goldman Sachs revised its on‑shore yuan projections, moving the 12‑month target to 6.50 per dollar, citing a 14.1% export rise in April and a valuation gap of over 20%. The bank argues the yuan is fundamentally undervalued, beyond short‑term trade‑talk...
Tokyo Faces Only Panic Hike or Yen Collapse
🎯 “the 160 line is going to break, and the next time it breaks, Tokyo’s response options collapse to two: a panic BoJ hike that detonates the bond market, or sit back and watch the yen go to 165, then 170....
Questioning Flawed Research on Banks' Dollar Holdings
Mr. Balding needs to back up his assertion here -- What part is wrong? The increase in banks foreign assets? The SCB's rising dollar holdings (in SAFE's data) The policy banks' dollar lending (from AIDdata) 1/2 https://t.co/bGHKNMvvNj
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How Sterilization Affects Foreign Exchange and Currency Stability
Sterilization is a central‑bank tool that neutralizes the money‑supply effects of foreign‑exchange interventions by buying or selling domestic assets. By offsetting currency purchases, banks aim to stabilize exchange rates without expanding or contracting liquidity. The technique can backfire, sparking inflation...
Citi Rolls Out FX Growth Initiative Aimed at Hedge Funds and Private‑Equity Clients
Citigroup announced a dedicated foreign‑exchange growth program for hedge‑fund and private‑equity clients, positioning the bank to capture rising demand for bespoke FX solutions amid expanding global trading volumes.
Kenya Converts $3.5 Bn of Chinese Loans to Yuan, Signaling Pragmatic Shift Across Africa
Kenya’s Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi confirmed the October 2025 conversion of $3.5 bn of dollar‑denominated Chinese loans to yuan, a move aimed at cutting interest costs. Zambia’s mining firms are also paying taxes in RMB, while African banks link to...
Euro Surges Past 184 Yen on Risk‑On Mood and ECB Hike Odds
The euro rose to 184.15 yen in early European trade on Friday, propelled by stronger risk sentiment and a near‑certain June rate hike by the European Central Bank. Traders see the move as a test of yen support amid possible...
Mongolia's Central Bank Pushes Rate Cuts to H2 2026 Amid Inflation and Tugrik Weakness
Mongolia’s central bank announced it will defer any interest‑rate reductions until the second half of 2026, citing persistent inflation and a weakening tugrik. The decision signals tighter monetary conditions for the mining‑driven economy and could reshape capital flows across emerging‑market...
Swiss Bitcoin Initiative Fails to Secure Signatures, Halting SNB Holding Push
Swiss crypto activists led by Yves Bennaim announced the failure to collect enough signatures for a national referendum that would have required the Swiss National Bank to hold Bitcoin. The initiative will now lapse, highlighting the difficulty of translating crypto...
Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks in Newspapers Using GPT
The CEPR paper introduces a newspaper‑based measure of Euro‑area monetary‑policy surprises that leverages GPT‑4‑style large language models. Researchers scraped articles from 11 major European newspapers after each ECB Governing Council meeting, filtered them, and used the LLM to label relevance...
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How Capital Controls Safeguard Economies: Types & Effects
Capital controls are policy tools that limit foreign capital flows to curb currency volatility and protect domestic markets. They are widely used in developing economies and during crises, as illustrated by Greece’s 2015 restrictions that halted bank runs. The IMF...
Indian Rupee Slides to 94.47 as Forex Reserves Drop $7.8 Bn
The Indian rupee closed at 94.47 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level in months, as the Reserve Bank of India’s foreign‑exchange reserves fell $7.8 bn to $690.7 bn in the week to May 1. The twin setbacks reflect soaring crude‑oil prices and heightened...
Smart Money Takes Liquidity, Guessing Loses Profits
No control = no profits. Liquidity was taken. Structure shifted. Smart money executed. Are you still guessing entries? #ForexReels #SmartMoneyTrading #ICTSetup #TradingReels #reels
China's Central Bank Adds Gold for 18th Month
After adding 5 tons of gold to its war chest in March, the People’s Bank of China purchased another 8.1 tons in April. This marks the 18th consecutive month that China has increased its gold reserves. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/jPZkT7Ljpc
Canadian Dollar Falls 0.2% as Weak Jobs Data Cuts BoC Rate‑Hike Odds
The loonie weakened to 1.3690 per U.S. dollar, the sole G10 currency to lose ground, after Canada reported a surprise loss of 17,700 jobs in April and a rise in unemployment to 6.9%. The data trimmed market expectations for Bank...
Reserve Currency Shift Drops DJIA 45% Amid 10× Debt Rise
Agree, on both the impact of going broke in the reserve currency & "denominator blindness": Since the March 1972 date of that article, DJIA (which benefits from survivorship bias) is down 45% in terms of the prior world reserve currency (gold,...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review) 11-15th May 2026:
The week ahead features a suite of pivotal macro releases, starting with China’s April trade data that is expected to show a $82.4 bn surplus, far above the prior $51.1 bn. Inflation readings are in focus as China’s CPI is projected at...
UK Yields Exceed Italy, Not a Weakness, ECB Cap Effect
The UK's long-term gov't bond yields (lhs) are now far above those of Italy (rhs). This doesn't mean the UK is in worse shape. It's just a reflection of past ECB actions to aggressively cap Italian yields. I talked about...
When Money Is a Fiction
In this episode of the Timeless Investor Show, Ari van Gemmeren examines Turkey’s ongoing currency collapse, using the price jump of a simple street bread (simmet) to illustrate how the Turkish lira has lost about 92% of its value against...
Japan Deploys $35 Billion to Defend Yen During Golden Week, Holds Back After Holiday
Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened on April 30, spending about 5.48 trillion yen ($35 bn) to push the yen up 2% during the Golden Week holiday. Analysts say authorities refrained from further action on the first business day after the break, leaving markets...
India's Goldilocks Growth Model Tested by Oil Shock and Rising Inflation
India’s “Goldilocks” growth scenario—strong GDP, moderate inflation and stable finances—is under pressure as crude oil prices have surged about 40% and inflation expectations have been lifted to 5.1%. Analysts say markets have already priced the shock, but the outcome will...
Strong US Data Yet Dollar Declines, Signaling Regime Shift
I'm doing a live stream at 9 am (ET) this morning. I'll talk about how much the Dollar is falling and how we're seeing mounting signs of regime change, whereby strong US data see the Dollar fall. That's how it...
Brazilian Real Leads EM Gains, Set to Dip Below 4.50
The Brazilian Real is now the best-performing EM currency since the start of the war, leaving aside the Hungarian Forint, which is idiosyncratic and about Orban losing the election. The Real has a lot further to go and - unlike...
Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI
Investors are betting that the Middle East cease‑fire will hold, lifting risk assets as oil prices retreat. WTI slipped 7% to about $95 a barrel and Brent fell 6.6% to $101, reversing two weeks of gains. The week’s data focus...
Dollar Declines vs EM Despite No Peace Deal
It's remarkable how much the Dollar is falling versus EM (blue), even though we don't even have a peace deal yet. Dollar down is a really high-conviction trade that people are putting on already now because they know they'll get...
CPI Data and Yen Moves Dominate Upcoming Week
Week ahead highlights: US and PRC CPI, Bessent talks $JPY in Japan, and G2 summit in Beijing. After ordering Fed to check exchange rates in Jan, Bessent quiet on recent BOJ intervention. Outcome of Xi-Trump likely minimal. See...
Dollar at a 3-Year Low: 3 Exporters Quietly Printing Money
The U.S. dollar index has slipped roughly 10% since its January 2025 peak, reaching levels not seen since 2022. A combination of the Trump administration’s trade‑restructuring agenda, a record $1.2 trillion goods‑trade deficit, Fed rate cuts and robust global growth is...
Could UAE Move to De-Peg Early?
The United Arab Emirates is weighing an early de‑peg of the dirham from the U.S. dollar amid a war‑driven oil export slump and its recent exit from OPEC. Proponents argue that a flexible, potentially stronger currency would leverage the emirate’s...
Reverse Carry Trade Starts, Yen Rescue Underway
I'm right. They are preparing to save the Yen. I'm fucking right. Phase 1 of the reverse carry trade HAS begun. Like and repost if you fucking understand this.
Japan Bets on Washington and BOJ for Extra Punch in Yen Battle
Japan is counting on a hawkish turn at the Bank of Japan and an overt endorsement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to give its yen‑buying interventions more bite. Since Governor Kazuo Ueda’s April 28 remarks, the finance ministry has...
Investors Have Worries About Trump’s Pick for Fed Chair. Should They?
President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as his next Federal Reserve chair, prompting a wave of investor anxiety about possible political meddling. Warsh told the Senate he would not act as a "human sock puppet," but markets...
Brazil Central Bank Trims FX Swap Stock as Real Nears R$4.90/USD, Santander Says
Brazil's central bank reduced its reverse currency swap inventory in a standalone auction, leveraging a real that has appreciated to around R$4.90 per dollar. Santander's foreign‑exchange desk head Roberta Guimarães says the move is aimed at shrinking the authority's market...
Goldman Delays Final Fed Cuts to Late 2026, Early 2027
“We are pushing back the final two Fed rate cuts in our forecast by one quarter to December 2026 and March 2027.” - Goldman
Bank of Ghana Reports GH¢15.6bn Loss, Unveils Recapitalisation Roadmap
The Bank of Ghana announced a GH¢15.6bn (about $1.3bn) operating loss for 2025 and a plunge in equity to GH¢93bn negative. The central bank said it remains policy‑solvent but unveiled a multi‑year recapitalisation programme with the finance ministry to rebuild...
Bank Negara Malaysia Holds Rate at 2.75% as Middle East Conflict Threatens Growth
Malaysia’s central bank kept the overnight policy rate at 2.75% for the fifth straight meeting, warning that the protracted Middle East war could feed higher commodity prices and inflation. The decision underscores how emerging‑market policymakers are balancing solid domestic fundamentals...
Consumer Sentiment Misses, Jobs Beat Estimates, Unemployment Steady
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Fri, May 8 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Act 48.2 | Est 49.7 | Prior 49.8 🔴 Average Hourly Earnings m/m: Act 0.2 | Est 0.3 | Prior 0.2 🔴 Non-Farm Employment Change: Act 115 | Est 65...
Swiss Bitcoin Reserve Campaign Set to Lapse After Failing to Gather Signatures
A Swiss citizens' initiative to amend the constitution and force the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to hold Bitcoin alongside gold and foreign‑currency assets failed, gathering only about half of the 100,000 signatures required for a referendum. The SNB has repeatedly...
Weak Dollar Boosts Bitcoin and Risk‑On Assets
Dollar Breakdown Keeps Fueling Bitcoin and Risk-On Equity Rotation Short USD. Short Treasuries. Long the Quad Shift. ⚡💵 While Tourists panic around every $SPY tick, the real Macro move remains the same: ⬇️ Dollar ⬇️ Bonds ⬆️ Bitcoin ⬆️ Risk Assets https://t.co/94qOuTSIrQ
Norway’s Central Bank Raises Rate to 4.25%, Triggering Euro‑Stock Volatility
Norges Bank unexpectedly lifted Norway’s benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on Thursday, citing inflation pressure from the Middle‑East conflict. The surprise move sent Norwegian bond yields higher and nudged equity valuations lower across the Nordics, with...
Zimbabwe’s Gold‑Backed ZiG Currency Stumbles as Merchants Favor US Dollars
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s gold‑backed ZiG legal tender is hitting roadblocks as retailers and online merchants default to US dollars, despite a recent policy lift that raised transaction limits to ZiG 13,000 (≈$9.30). Consumers face higher prices, settlement delays and...
Dollar Hits Two‑Week High as Middle East Tensions Boost Safe‑Haven Demand, Treasury Yields Rise
The U.S. dollar rose to its highest level in two weeks on Thursday, while benchmark Treasury yields climbed amid heightened Middle East risk. Investors are seeking safety as the United States and Iran edge toward a limited cease‑fire, but lingering...
Kevin Warsh Is Right About Fed Reform — but His Inflation Solution Is a T...
Kevin Warsh, the Fed chair nominee, argues that a coming AI‑driven productivity boom will act as a disinflationary force and give the Federal Reserve room to cut rates. He couples this view with a broader reform agenda that includes balance‑sheet...