Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – May 11th, 2026

Key Takeaways

• USDJPY fell for second consecutive week, testing 155.00 support.
• Support at 155.00 held, easing bearish pressure.
• Elliott Wave suggests bullish reversal if support sustains.
• Traders view 155.00 as key level for month‑end outlook.
• Break below 155.00 could trigger further yen appreciation.

Pulse Analysis

The Japanese yen has been under pressure this spring, with USDJPY sliding for a second straight week. The pair slipped below the 156.00 mark in early May, driven by a combination of higher‑than‑expected U.S. Treasury yields and a modest rebound in Japan’s core‑inflation data that nudged the Bank of Japan away from ultra‑loose policy. Despite the decline, the currency pair found a floor near 155.00, a level that has historically acted as a psychological barrier for both retail and institutional participants.

Elliott Wave practitioners interpret the recent price action as a corrective wave within a larger bullish impulse. The intact 155.00 support aligns with the fifth‑wave sub‑structure, suggesting that a breach could invalidate the current count and open a deeper corrective phase. Conversely, a firm hold above the level would complete the corrective wave and set the stage for a fifth‑wave rally toward the 158.00‑160.00 zone, where previous highs have offered resistance. Technical indicators such as the RSI and MACD are also turning neutral, reinforcing the notion that the market is at a crossroads.

For portfolio managers and day traders, the 155.00 pivot becomes a decisive risk‑management point. A break below could trigger stop‑loss orders and fuel a short‑term yen rally, while a bounce may encourage long‑biased positions and options strategies targeting the 158.00‑160.00 range. Given the tight monetary divergence—U.S. rates expected to stay higher than Japan’s—fundamental support for a stronger dollar remains intact, making the technical battle at 155.00 the primary driver of short‑term USDJPY volatility. Monitoring upcoming U.S. CPI releases will further clarify directional bias.