Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee Holds Steady as West Asia Truce Hopes Bolster Sentiment
The Indian rupee stayed flat on market optimism that a West Asia cease‑fire will hold, even as early trade saw it dip 8 paise to ₹95.78 per dollar.
Middle East War Drives Record Capital Outflows From Turkey
Turkey posted a March current‑account deficit of $9.7 bn, roughly 2.6% of GDP, widening the 12‑month shortfall to $39.7 bn. The capital account recorded a record $26.8 bn of outflows, largely attributed to heightened geopolitical risk from the Middle East war. Combined with $7 bn of net errors and omissions, official reserves plunged by $43.4 bn, the deepest drawdown on record. Preliminary data suggest a modest April improvement in the trade balance, but future flows remain vulnerable to external shocks.
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – May 13th, 2026
EWM Interactive released its May 13 2026 Elliott Wave update on the EUR/USD pair, focusing on the recent dip and whether it signals a buying opportunity or the start of a larger downtrend. The analysis highlights a critical technical level near 1.0800...
Colombian Peso Slides 3% in Week, Worst Emerging-Market Currency
The Colombian peso weakened 3.01% to 3,747.10 per dollar in the week ending May 8, 2026, making it the poorest performer among emerging-market currencies. Analysts cite a widening fiscal deficit, a volatile presidential race and a loss of commodity support...
Brevan Howard Adds Three Macro PMs, Swelling Investment Staff Beyond 150
Brevan Howard has hired three macro-focused portfolio managers—Jonas Klink, Mickael Sabban and Ning Guo—bringing its investment headcount to more than 150. The hires come as the firm’s Master Fund posted a modest 0.8% gain in 2025 but slipped 6.6% in...
US Treasury Mulls Currency Swap with China to Bolster Dollar Liquidity
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is spearheading discussions on a bilateral currency‑swap line with China, a move intended to shore up dollar funding and counter growing use of the renminbi in trade. The proposal comes as Washington seeks to protect...
Investor Jitters over Starmer Uncertainty Drive UK Borrowing Costs to 28-Year High
Long-term borrowing costs in the United Kingdom spiked to a 28‑year peak on Tuesday as investors reacted to uncertainty surrounding Labour leader Keir Starmer’s potential departure. The yield on 30‑year gilts rose 14 basis points to 5.81%, the highest level...
China Ramps up Dollar Swaps to Curb Yuan Rise
Bloomberg is reporting a $3b (CNY 17.4b) increase in the use of PBOC swaps in Q1 ... Que forecasts of dollar doom In the first quarter China (PBOC and state banks) bought $180 of fx to keep the CNY from rising --...
How the U.S.‑Israel War Against Iran Is Exposing the Limits of the Petrodollar System
U.S. public debt has risen to $31.27 trillion, edging past the nation’s $31.22 trillion GDP, reviving concerns about fiscal sustainability. Gulf Cooperation Council sovereign wealth funds, which collectively own roughly $2 trillion of U.S. assets, are reassessing those holdings after the U.S.-Israel campaign...
XRP Offers BRICS a Sovereign, Unfrozen Settlement Layer
Governments will not use RLUSD. They want their own stablecoin, their own treasuries, their own interest. RLUSD is also an issued asset Ripple can freeze. XRP cannot be frozen, clawed back, or minted by anyone. Swift participation means you can...
AUD/JPY Climbs to 113.70 as RBA Hikes and Japan Intervention Risk Looms
The Australian dollar pushed the AUD/JPY pair up to 113.70, a 0.13% gain, after the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its policy rate to 4.35% and signaled further tightening. At the same time, market participants flagged a heightened risk of...
Cleveland Fed Median CPI Jumps, 12‑month Rise Hits 2.8
The Cleveland Fed's median CPI was +0.40% in April, or 4.9% annualized. The 12-month median CPI ticked up to 2.8%, the first such increase since last summer. (The median CPI looks at the price change of the item sitting in the...
West Asia Crisis a ‘Live Stress Test’ for India’s Balance of Payments, Says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran
India’s chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran warned that the West Asia crisis has become a live balance‑of‑payments stress test for the country, pressuring inflation, the current account and the rupee. He highlighted a 48% jump in Brent crude, a 500% surge...
Dollar Gains as Oil and CPI Lift Fed Hike Bets, but Risk Appetite Holds Firm
The dollar rose broadly as April CPI jumped to 3.8% YoY and core inflation to 2.8%, nudging Fed‑fund futures toward a 28% chance of another rate hike. Oil prices surged, with Brent above $107 and WTI over $100, driven by...
Rising CPI Makes Rate Cuts Hard for New Fed Chair
Latest CPI report underscores how tough it will be for Warsh to deliver cuts once he takes over as Fed chair. Core CPI is up 0.4% in April, or 2.8% compared to the same time last year. This comes on...
The Market Is Steady/Doing Better Through the CPI Shock
The U.S. Consumer Price Index showed core inflation rising 0.4% month‑over‑month, beating the 0.3% forecast, while headline CPI matched expectations at 0.6%. Year‑over‑year, core CPI climbed to 2.8% versus a 2.7% estimate, and the headline rate held at 3.8%, keeping...
Ramaphosa’s Political Peril Earns Shrug From Investors for Now
South Africa’s rand remains steady despite looming impeachment talks against President Cyril Ramaphosa. The president rebuffed calls to resign in a televised address, while a court ruling on May 8 revived a 2022 farm‑theft scandal that fuels the political drama. Investors appear...
Markets Brace for Hotter US Inflation, Stocks Fall
🚨 US Inflation Report on Tap - Markets are bracing for a hotter inflation print: ⬇️ Stocks ⬇️ Gold ⬆️ USD ⬆️ Yields Here’s what everyone is watching 👇 CPI - MoM 0.6% forecast, 0.9% prior CPI - YoY 3.7% forecast, 3.3% prior CPI Core MoM -...
USD Is Higher to Start the US Session. Yields and Oil Higher. Stocks Lower. CPI Awaited.
The U.S. dollar opened the North American session higher, gaining 0.36% against the euro, 0.27% versus the yen and 0.62% versus the pound as traders brace for the key CPI release. Core CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% month‑over‑month and...
InvestingLive European FX News Wrap: JPY Whipsaws, Risk Mood on the Defensive
The European trading session turned defensive as markets awaited the U.S. CPI report amid heightened geopolitical tension over the U.S.-Iran stalemate. The Japanese yen whipsawed early, briefly falling before rebounding to the key resistance around 158.00 following suspected intervention and...
‘Telling People to Not Buy Gold Has the Opposite Effect’: Deepak Shenoy Shares Other Ways to Reduce Import Bill
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s austerity drive includes a year‑long ban on gold purchases to curb the $51 billion FY25 import bill. Investor Deepak Shenoy argues the ban backfires and proposes supply‑side solutions: the RBI selling 200 tonnes of its gold reserves...
Eurodollar Market Faces Stress as Energy Shock Fuels Swap and Futures Strain
Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University warned that the Eurodollar system is under growing strain from energy price volatility and geopolitical risk, threatening dollar‑funded interest‑rate swaps and Eurodollar futures. He highlighted Brent crude at $130 a barrel and futures near $75,...
Dollar Rises on Trump’s Iran Rejection, Safe‑Haven Demand Surges
President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s response to a U.S. peace proposal pushed the dollar index to 97.99, lifting the greenback against major peers. The move sparked a rally in safe‑haven demand, lifted Brent crude to $104.94 a barrel and...
How Stablecoins Are Extending the Monetary Power of the United States
Stablecoins tied to the U.S. dollar have surged, with transaction volume climbing from roughly $565 bn in 2020 to about $11 tn projected for 2025—representing 65 % of Visa’s network size. Private issuers Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) now control roughly 84 % of...
Dollar Index Nears Correction Completion, Bullish Outlook Ahead
💵 Dollar Index (D1) Update 💵 I hope this week the Dollar Index completes its corrective move. 📉 After that, we’ll be looking for a bullish continuation for the long term. 📈🔥 Patience is key — let the market confirm the setup before...
Japan's FX Intervention Powerless Against Massive Carry Trade
This is why Japan's intervention efforts won't work. The MOF - via BOJ - are trying to fight risk appetite and a healthy carry trade. That represents a vastly larger pool of wealth than Japanese authorities have in FX reserves to...
Alphabet Taps Banks to Explore Multi‑billion Yen Bond Issuance
Alphabet hired leading investment banks to evaluate a potential yen‑denominated bond offering. While the size and timing of the deal were not disclosed, the move highlights growing appetite for yen‑linked financing among tech giants. The initiative could reshape fee opportunities...
High Inflation, Oil, Strong GDP: Bonds Remain Unattractive
Inflation running above expectations, oil holding above $90, Atlanta Fed GDPNow pointing to +3.7% GDP for 2Q'26 (thanks data center buildout)...difficult to make a bull case for bonds (or rate cuts) for the foreseeable future.
ESF Funds Favor Wealthy Allies,
if the $212b (counting ~ $175b in SDRs that Republicans historically haven't liked using) Exchange Stabilization Fund is going to be given to allies without a financial need (like the UAE) not everyone is going to be able to get...
Indian Rupee Hits Record Low of 95.31 per Dollar Amid Market Turmoil
On May 11, 2026 the Indian rupee fell 82 paise to close at a historic 95.31 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level since the currency was introduced. The plunge was driven by a mix of domestic fiscal strain, widening current‑account deficits...
April CPI Won’t Shift Fed, New Chair Faces Tough Odds
April CPI won't change minds at the Fed. But more of this will complicate the dovish case, which has already flipped away from arguing for cuts and towards arguing against toying with hikes. It's a tough inheritance for a new Fed...
Dollar Weakens, Yields Rise: Loose Policy Warning
Dollar down, yields up. In normal times these are positively correlated. When they diverge and the currency weakens while bonds sell off, it's telling you policy is too loose. Japan has been ground zero for this dynamic. Watch closely to see...
Nigerian Naira Rises as Central Bank Reports $46.7 Bn Forex Reserve Surge
The Central Bank of Nigeria disclosed that foreign‑exchange reserves have jumped to $46.7 bn, prompting a sharp appreciation of the naira against the dollar. The reserve build‑up follows a series of CBN reforms, including an interest‑rate cut, that aim to stabilise...
Low‑Inflation Era Ends; Global Debt Pressures Rise
For the decade before COVID, we were all convinced inflation would always be low and so interest rates would always be low too. That's over. I talked about the global debt overhang and how the UK isn't an outlier in...
Ceasefire Uncertainty Dampens Risk, Lifts Dollar, Fuels Oil
Ceasefire is on "Life Support": Saps Risk Appetites, Buoys the Greenback: The uncertainty about the US-Iran fragile ceasefire, which President Trump has said is on “life support” is weighing on risk-taking appetites today. Brent and WTI are up over $3…...
Panda Power: Pakistan to Tap China Debt Market with First Sale of Yuan-Priced Notes
Pakistan will issue up to $250 million of yuan‑denominated panda bonds, the first tranche of a $1 billion program, with AIIB and ADB guaranteeing 95% of the debt. The three‑year sustainable‑development notes aim to tap lower Chinese borrowing costs after Pakistan raised...
USD Strength Amid Fragile Ceasefire Drags Markets Lower
$USD is bid. Fragility of ceasefire weighs on sentiment. Drags equities and bonds lower. PBOC set $USD fix at new multiyear low. Bessent and Japanese officials talk fx but $JPY falls to new 5-day low. US CPI on...
Hungary Aims to Meet Euro Criteria by 2030
Hungary to meet euro criteria by 2030, new finance minister says https://t.co/AN0YZs31Z6 via @ZoltanSimonBbg https://t.co/4UELJl5uXJ
The Impossible Trinity Behind the Melt Up
The analysts explain that the impossible trinity—independent monetary policy, capital mobility, and FX stability—underpins the current credit‑cycle melt‑up. The United States uniquely combines open capital, sovereign policy and a floating dollar, making the dollar the global reserve and funneling worldwide...
ECB Must Intervene if Iran War Endangers Price Stability
ECB must act if Iran war threatens price stability, Nagel says https://t.co/XRboBjnoxo via @jrandow https://t.co/eWSZmFGVoL
Yen Surge Triggers Global Panic and Reverse Carry Trade
After the rest of the world panics on the surging Yen forcing the reverse carry trade.
“Booming Government Spending” Will Force RBA to Hike Again
Australia's underlying inflation stayed above the RBA's 2‑3% target before the Middle East conflict, prompting a 0.25% cash‑rate hike in February. RBA Governor Michele Bullock directly linked record public spending to excess demand and warned that additional fiscal stimulus could...
Venezuela Still Holds World's Highest Inflation at 529%
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Today, I measure Venezuela's inflation AS THE WORLD'S HIGHEST at a CRUSHING 529.1%/yr. That's down from a peak of 828.6%/yr on February 4th. YOU WON’T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA SPIN. https://t.co/BXznEebbH4
Oil Shock Rattles D-Street as Rupee Hits Record Low
India’s equity markets slumped on Monday as Brent crude breached $104 per barrel, pushing the rupee to a record closing low of 95.31 per dollar. The Nifty 50 fell 1.5% to 23,815.85, breaking the 24,000 support, while the Sensex dropped 1.7%...
ECB Vice‑President Luis De Guindos Urges Caution on Future Rate Hikes
In a Financial Times interview, ECB Vice‑President Luis de Guindos cautioned that the central bank should move carefully on any further interest‑rate increases. His remarks have sharpened market focus on the June policy meeting and added volatility to Euro‑Stoxx 50 equities...
Warsh Nomination Sparks Fed Politicization, Prompting 10Y Selloff
Macro: Warsh nomination raises Fed politicization. Key: White House pressure, rate path, balance-sheet plans. Risk: policy uncertainty. Trade: shorten duration—sell 10Y Treasuries into June meeting. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Is China’s Reserve Shift Real Insight or Overfit?
Question for @EtraAlex and other students of the TIC data. Is this overfitting to the last known data point, or valuable new insight into where China's reserve holdings appear now that it is minimizing the use of US...
Albo & Chalmers vs the Reserve Bank – On Home Grown Inflation
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by a quarter‑point to 4.35%, marking a third straight increase. Treasury Minister Jim Chalmers quickly posted on X that the decision was driven by the war in the Middle East, emphasizing the...
Dollar Edges Marginally Higher, and and Equities Withstand Hawkish Language By Trump
The U.S. dollar edged higher on May 11, gaining 0.1%‑0.4% against major peers despite President Trump’s hawkish language on the Iran standoff. U.S. equity indices nudged up 0.1%‑0.2%, showing resilience amid the geopolitical chatter. Commodity markets reacted sharply, with WTI crude...
PBOC Unveils Multi‑Pronged Plan to Expand Yuan’s Global Use
The People’s Bank of China announced a comprehensive policy package aimed at stabilising domestic markets and raising the yuan’s share in international transactions. The plan focuses on tighter real‑estate financing supervision, new macro‑prudential tools and an expanded role for the...
Dollar Shorts At Risk as Hawkish Fed Looms
I think dollar shorts are vulnerable here and I'm not sure DXY's next go at 100 is going to hold again. Economic data continues to show stabilization and improvement while inflation will worsen in the near-term. Hawkish is the path...