Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
Currencies Pulse
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Fed balance‑sheet shrinkage won’t automatically lower rates, says Warsh
Kevin Warsh argues that reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could free stimulus for lower fed‑funds rates. The article counters that the roughly $3 trillion in reserve balances—about 9% of U.S. GDP—are required by banks and regulation, so trimming holdings merely releases idle assets rather than driving rate cuts.
The eurozone composite PMI dropped to 50.7 in March, its weakest reading in eight months, as Middle‑East war‑driven energy costs surge. The data, released alongside Spain’s services PMI forecast of 50.7, has pressured European equities, with analysts warning that higher oil and tighter monetary policy could erode recent market gains.
There are so many layers to the dollar story that transcend conventional market economic dynamics. Until investors realise this I do believe they will be caught out by narratives that serve political agendas not reality. Crucially, most “end of the dollar”...
Ethiopia’s birr has lost roughly 107% of its value against the dollar since July 2024, pushing fertilizer prices up 60% and fuel up 56%. The surge in input costs threatens to erode gains from a projected record 7 million‑metric‑ton wheat harvest...
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast projects March headline CPI rising at an annualized quarter‑on‑quarter rate of 5.2%‑5.9%, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast blends recent CPI and PCE releases with daily oil and gasoline price data, indicating inflation remains...
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff warns the Chinese yuan could become a global reserve currency within five years, challenging the U.S. dollar’s entrenched position. The dollar still processes about 58% of international transactions, while the yuan accounts for roughly 2% of...
The European Central Bank has broadened its euro‑repo liquidity facility (EUREP) to offer funding to any central bank that provides high‑quality euro‑denominated collateral. This move underscores the ECB’s growing geopolitical role as the euro seeks to become a more prominent...
The Indonesian rupiah weakened to Rp17,105 per U.S. dollar, a 0.41% slide driven by fears of a U.S. strike on Iran if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts say heightened geopolitical risk is tightening oil markets and...
The ASEAN+3 macroeconomic research office (AMRO) projects the bloc will grow 4% in both 2026 and 2027, even as the Iran war and soaring oil prices pressure the region. The outlook highlights strong inflation control, robust foreign direct investment and...
European investors have not increased their dollar hedges despite early‑year dollar weakness. Danish insurers and pension funds cut their FX hedge ratio to 70.3% in February, the lowest level since before April 2023. Private‑sector foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries has...
The article warns that trading on hope—holding losing positions, skipping stop‑losses, and chasing headlines—creates predictable losses. It contrasts this with disciplined traders who use strict risk management, predefined entry and exit rules, and data‑driven analysis. By treating each trade as...
Copy trading has gained traction among South African forex newcomers, offering a way to mirror seasoned traders’ positions automatically. The model promises rapid market entry without the need to develop a personal strategy, appealing to smartphone‑savvy users lacking formal education....
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the Official Cash Rate at 2.25 percent as the Middle‑East conflict pushed global oil prices higher and disrupted supply chains. Near‑term headline inflation is projected at 3.0 percent in the March 2026 quarter and...
Rupiah at Record Low of 17,080. It’s not just the war. Polisi fiskal memberi bebanan. Between 2025 and April 2026: •Rupiah jatuh 5% in 2025 •Deficit 2.92% of GDP, widest in several years. •Foreign investors sold off bonds •Bank Indonesia (BI) buys govt bonds...
Afreximbank has approved a $10 billion Gulf Crisis Response Programme to cushion African and Caribbean economies from the fallout of the Middle‑East conflict. The fund will supply short‑term foreign‑exchange and liquidity to keep essential imports such as fuel, food and pharmaceuticals...
The Reserve Bank of India imposed a $100 million cap on banks' net open foreign‑exchange positions and barred rupee non‑deliverable forwards, while hinting at incentives for NRI deposits ahead of its April 8 policy meeting. The moves triggered a brief rupee...
The U.S. Congress enacted the GENIUS Act, requiring stablecoin issuers to back each token with short‑dated Treasury securities, effectively tying the burgeoning stablecoin market to U.S. sovereign debt. This framework mirrors the EU’s MiCA rules for electronic money tokens, but...
South Africa operates a floating exchange rate. That simply means the Rand's value is determined by supply and demand in global markets. 𝗗𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 "𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗮𝗯𝘀𝗼𝗿𝗯𝗲𝗿". What Lesetja Kganyago is really telling you is...
The UK’s March 2026 statistical release shows official international reserves totaling £115.5 billion (approximately $148 billion), a 1.2% increase from the previous month. Gold holdings rose to 310 tonnes, valued at roughly $5.5 billion, while foreign‑currency assets grew on the back of higher US‑dollar positions....
Gabriel Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, warned that Europe’s household deposits now total roughly $11 trillion, yet investment falls far short of the $818‑$872 billion needed annually by 2030. He linked this gap to weak growth, persistent Single Market...
François Villeroy de Galhau used his final Eurofi speech as Governor of the Banque de France to warn that Europe is running out of time to act on known reforms. He stressed that the continent knows what must be done,...
FP Markets has partnered with Acuity Trading to launch FP Markets Intelligence, an AI‑powered suite of trading tools for its retail FX and CFD clients. The platform delivers market sentiment analysis, AI‑driven signals and real‑time research, and is fully integrated...
🧵There’s been an acute breakout of death of the petrodollar thought pieces over the weekend. This should have discerning investors thinking twice. Not about the dollar, however. About piling into an obviously crowded and extremely unoriginal perspective that is mostly...
Norway’s central bank, Norges Bank, left its policy rate unchanged at 4 percent, citing persistent inflation above the 2 percent target and heightened uncertainty from rising energy prices. The committee warned that a rate increase is likely in upcoming meetings as wage...
Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour argued that central banks must evolve from pure stability stewards to architects of economic resilience. He highlighted four structural pressures—global economic re‑ordering, rapid digital transformation, demographic shifts, and heightened public scrutiny—that are reshaping policy effectiveness. In response,...
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers addressed the Brandon Chamber of Commerce, warning that Canada faces three structural forces—U.S. protectionism, demographic slowdown, and artificial intelligence—that are reshaping the economy. She highlighted how trade‑policy volatility, especially Chinese canola tariffs and the upcoming...
Cboe FX posted a record‑breaking Spot Average Daily Volume of $74.5 billion in March 2026, a 42.9% jump from a year earlier. The platform also set single‑day highs of $109.1 billion on March 3 for Spot and $6.7 billion on March 6 for its SEF. ECN Firm...
Emotions high = profits low. Liquidity taken. Structure shifted. Imbalance respected. The setup was perfect… discipline wasn’t. Save this before your next trade. #forex #smartmoney #icttrading #tradingmindset #priceaction
Macro: USD strengthens as global stress persists. Key factors: robust US data, rising oil and yields. Risks: Middle East tensions and higher inflation. Trade: Buy DXY on a clean break above 100.20; targets 101–103. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights:...
The Washington Post referenced a new GeoEconomics study highlighting China’s cross‑border digital currency platform, mBridge. The research notes that mBridge, built on the digital yuan, now supports real‑time settlements among pilot banks in Hong Kong, Singapore and other Asian hubs....
Happy to see the IMF has noticed the expansion of global current account imbalances -- And guess what, the IMF seems to have rediscovered the idea that currency manipulation can drive imbalances (though manipulation has been renamed "macro-industrial policy" ......
The PEOPLE LOVE THEIR ZiG…. The Zimbabwe Gold brought Price Stability & Exchange rate Stability… By 2030, with President @edmnangagwa in charge, even the doubting Thomases will be fully embracing the ZiG… https://t.co/YS86xPMcjN
The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) now trades about 23 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s median funds‑rate projections for both year‑end 2023 and the end of 2027. This premium emerged after the war in the Middle East shifted market...
This is good news and we may bottom out in May if this continues - makret has been incredibly complacent so sentiment shift shoud help correct that.
Weekly Dollar line chart (blue line is 5 SMA, only important when trending)...below 99.05 key confirmation level. https://t.co/XNW1syuTPa
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's March official CPI inflation is 30.8%/yr. That's down from 31.5% in Feb. Today, I measure Turkey's inflation at 20.9%/yr. Since my measure leads the official one, I anticipated that the official number would do just what it did. It...
Translation: MUCH less US dollar recycling... More gold, more yuan; less USD, less UST... #NATO #Iran #Hegemony
This is very true I would just add that not only can you never "do" anything to the market but the only intelligent action in the market is reaction rather than prediction https://t.co/oOyO02Go7K
On the Edge of the Abyss: The dollar is mostly narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Swedish krona, which has fallen nearly 0.75% on the back of an unexpected soft March CPI, the other G10 currencies are...
Zimbabweans are LOVING the new ZiG notes… And yes, they got them from ATMs… And Yes, President @edmnangagwa returned the pride & dignity of Zimbabweans by re-introducing the local currency…. ED2030 Woye 🔥🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/eykvrLwJN7
The US deadline draws close. It hangs over market activity. It remains binary. A ceasefire will boost risk assets and weigh on the greenback. The opposite is true, as well. Meanwhile, undaunted, the PBOC set the...
Fed's getting ready to cut rates as inflation cools down. Markets love this combo - cheaper money usually means risk-on mode. Going live at 9am NY to trade this bullish setup with our DOTS indicator showing clear signals. https://t.co/66dSROeuCi https://t.co/23feho9DD6
Switzerland’s inflation rate is 0.1%/yr. That's at the lower end of the Swiss target range of 0%-2%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) just came in at 5.0%/yr. That's within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
What Iran means for the dollar: a perfect storm for the petrodollar - Deutsche Bank Research Institute https://t.co/gVdGKCUzyc Why have fiat as an intermediary when you could trade oil tokens for wheat tokens (or whatever) ? https://t.co/ocO6m7zPVd
BNE Intellinews claims that the Iranian rial is "losing ground as military strikes hit infrastructure across the country". WRONG. FACT: Since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs the USD. https://t.co/6tlVgFd2Lt
Oil spikes trigger the reverse carry trade unwind. Japan raises rates, US Treasuries flood back, markets take losses across the board. Tether depegs. Exchanges go illiquid and need XRP to settle. Shane Ellis theory puts $500 XRP from Bitfinex alone...
Many on X seem to forget that Europe tried to separate from the US 26 years ago, when the EU arranged for Iraq to sell oil in EUR instead of USD (Source: CNN Int’l👇) The EU would have been independent of...
“To innovate, you must make.” -INTC CEO Andy Grove, 2011 The reality is we cannot and will not reindustrialize unless we change USD reserve status structure to a system with a neutral reserve asset instead of USTs; it’s a fundamental double-entry...
The Indian rupee's rally seems to have run out of steam. $USDINR ran a 5-day retreat (rupee a rally) through Friday and notched the biggest 5-day drop since Nov 2022. Put in for a bounce today... https://t.co/qewdcUneMg
Japanese Government 10-Year Yield Highest since 1997, Yen at 160 despite Intervention Threats, But Bond Vigilantes Still Dead. Inflation and deteriorating yen pushed the BOJ into hawkish stance, and bond yields are on their own https://t.co/sF7g5sRsaq https://t.co/XX7yIUKRhS
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran 5 weeks ago, the Iranian rial as APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA (READ: PROPGANDA MACHINE) REMAINS SILENT ON THIS INCONVENIENT FACT. https://t.co/9n42ihPYE9
