Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee Holds Steady as West Asia Truce Hopes Bolster Sentiment
The Indian rupee stayed flat on market optimism that a West Asia cease‑fire will hold, even as early trade saw it dip 8 paise to ₹95.78 per dollar.
Hedge Funds Pile Into Bearish Sterling Options as UK Political Risk Drives Volatility
Hedge funds and asset managers sharply increased bearish bets on the British pound last week, flooding the market with sterling put options that dwarf call activity. The surge follows Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s hinted move toward a parliamentary run, heightening political risk and expectations of looser fiscal policy. The pound slipped for a sixth straight session, hitting its weakest level in over five weeks against the U.S. dollar. Banks such as BofA and RBC shifted to modest net‑short positions, reflecting broader market anxiety about near‑term volatility.
Indonesia Rupiah Hits New Record Low; President Downplays Day-to-Day Impact of Currency Weakness
Indonesia's rupiah fell to a new record low of 17,668 per dollar, slipping more than 1% as global oil prices rose and the Jakarta stock index dropped over 4%. President Prabowo Subianto downplayed the impact, saying villagers do not use...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.8435 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8086)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8435, slightly above the Reuters consensus of 6.8086. The central bank maintains a +/-2% daily fluctuation band around the benchmark. It also injected 1 billion yuan into the market...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.8086 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is slated to set the USD/CNY reference rate at approximately 6.8086, according to Reuters estimates. China’s managed‑float system anchors the yuan within a 2% band around this daily midpoint, which the PBOC determines using prior...
CGFS 2026 Report Flags Rising Foreign‑Currency Funding Risks
The Committee on the Global Financial System’s 2026 report warns that foreign‑currency funding remains a systemic vulnerability, with the U.S. dollar shouldering most cross‑border liquidity needs. The study draws on balance‑sheet data, confidential derivatives positions and a banking‑sector survey to...
Nigeria’s Debt Swells to N159 Trillion ($111 Bn) Amid Naira Devaluation
Nigeria’s public debt rose to N159 trillion ($111 bn) by December 2025, driven largely by a three‑fold naira devaluation and the re‑valuation of foreign‑currency liabilities. At the same time, a Federal High Court ruling overturning the Central Bank’s dissolution of Union Bank’s...
Mexican Peso Slides to Multi‑Month Lows as Dollar Gains on Fed Rate Hike Odds
The Mexican peso closed at 17.34 per dollar on Friday, marking a 0.67% daily drop and a 0.87% weekly loss, its steepest slide in weeks. The slide reflects rising U.S. inflation, higher oil prices and market pricing of a December...
Citi Says Japan Could Deploy Up to ¥30 Trillion in Yen‑Buy Interventions
Citi estimates Tokyo has already spent roughly ¥10 trillion ($63 bn) buying yen in recent weeks and could raise that to as much as ¥30 trillion ($190 bn) if reserves are tapped. The analysis highlights the scale of Japan’s intervention capacity and its potential...
Warsh Nomination Fuels FX Market Debate Over Potential Rate Cuts
Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair has ignited a fierce policy debate, with former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester questioning his credibility amid soaring inflation. Traders are weighing the prospect of early rate cuts, a scenario that could weaken...
India’s Forex Reserves Surge $6.3 Bn to $696.9 Bn, Hitting New High
India’s central bank reported a $6.3 billion jump in foreign‑exchange reserves to $696.9 billion for the week ended May 8, marking a new record after weeks of decline. The rise was driven by higher foreign‑currency assets and a $5.6 billion surge in gold holdings,...
XRP Meets Tier‑One Criteria, Adoption Determines BIS Designation
Tier one classification from the BIS requires demonstrated stability, global market volume, and proven utility at scale. XRP has a fixed supply, a blackholed origin account, and cannot be frozen or manipulated. As an educational comparison, gold carries asteroid mining...
US Dollar Rises as Gulf Tensions Spur Currency Market Shift
The U.S. dollar index climbed to 99.27, a 0.32% gain, after a two‑day U.S.–China summit failed to produce a breakthrough on the Gulf crisis. Heightened fears of renewed fighting in the Strait of Hormuz and broader Middle‑East volatility are pushing...
Korea Targets 20%
Hike rates, support the won, limit inflation -- Korea is on track to run a 20% of GDP current account surplus (more if March numbers hold ... ) it can manage without a super weak won
Naira Posts Weekly Loss Despite 249.16% Liquidity Surge at NFEM
The Central Bank of Nigeria reported that the naira weakened 0.7% to N1,371 per dollar (≈$0.73) despite a 249% surge in official FX market turnover to $509.22 million. Deal volume fell, with NFEM transactions dropping 11.6% week‑on‑week and interbank deals plunging...
Emerging‑Market Currencies Slide as Middle‑East Conflict Spurs Dollar Surge
Emerging‑market currencies slumped on Friday, with the MSCI EM Currency index down 0.4% and the Brazilian real, Chilean peso and South African rand each losing over 1.2%. The sell‑off was driven by heightened inflation worries from the Middle‑East conflict, a...
MoF's Dollar Sales Cut Japan Debt, Not Just Spend Reserves
A reminder -- whenever the MoF sells dollar it bought for 80 yen for 155-160 yen, it books a massive profit and reduces Japan's gross debt significantly ... "spending reserves" is a common frame for intervention, but it misses something...
US Rates Rise, Greenback Gains as Economy Re‑accelerates
Week Ahead: Rising US Rates Underpin Greenback: The US economy appears to be re-accelerating here in Q2 after nearly grinding to a halt in Q1 (0.5% annualized pace). April US CPI and PPI were more elevated than expected. The anticipated...
Nigerian Naira Slides to N1,371 per Dollar as Reserves Edge Up
Nigeria's naira weakened to N1,371.04 per U.S. dollar on May 15, 2026, after a modest daily dip of N0.15 in the official market and a sharper slide to N1,415 in the parallel market. The depreciation came even as the Central...
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – May 18th, 2026
The euro‑dollar pair slumped last week as U.S. Treasury yields surged, reflecting heightened expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Market pricing now shows a roughly 70% probability of another Fed increase, pressuring the EURUSD lower. Analysts applying Elliott Wave theory...
Peso Closes Week at New Record Low
The Philippine peso closed the week at a fresh record low of 61.721 per dollar, slipping 8.1 centavos from its prior trough. The decline was driven by a resurgent US dollar, which rose more than 1% as markets priced in...
CAD Slides to 1.3740 as Fed Shift Fuels USD Strength and Oil Prices Falter
The Canadian dollar weakened to around 1.3740 USD/CAD on Friday as a stronger US dollar, spurred by robust retail sales and a Fed leadership shuffle, offset modest oil price gains. The move underscores the CAD’s sensitivity to both monetary policy...
NZD Slides Toward $0.5850 as Fed Hike Odds Jump to 37%
The NZD/USD pair slipped to near $0.5860 on Friday, driven by a surge in market odds that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates in December. Weaker Chinese demand and lingering geopolitical uncertainty further weighed on the kiwi.
InvestingLive Americas FX News Wrap 15 May: Powell Exits as Inflation Fears Roar
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell concluded an eight‑year tenure as Treasury yields surged, reigniting inflation concerns. The 2‑year note rose to 4.08% and the 10‑year to 4.60%, their highest levels since 2025, while WTI crude breached $101 per barrel, adding...
Yen Hits Two‑Week Low as Fed‑Fuelled Dollar Gains Accelerate
The Japanese yen slipped to a two‑week trough, trading just below 158.5 per dollar, as traders priced in a 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike after stronger‑than‑expected US inflation and retail sales. Japan’s own producer‑price surge and lingering geopolitical risk added...
Global FX: EUR-USD Divergences, Systematic Signals, Sterling Struggles
In this episode of JPMorgan’s At Any Rate, co‑head of FX Strategy Meera Chandan and guests Patrick Locke (MacroFX) and Antonin Diller (Systematic FX) dissect recent currency moves, highlighting a renewed bullish stance on the U.S. dollar driven by stronger...
RBI Poised to Hold Rates in June as Inflation Nears 3.5%, H2 Hike Bets Surface
All 12 surveyed economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep its repo rate unchanged at the June 5 meeting, even as April consumer price inflation rose to 3.48%, the highest since May 2023. A minority of forecasters warn...
Dollar Surges as Stocks, Bonds Slip After US‑China Summit
Greenback Breaks Higher, Stocks and Bonds Lower: The US dollar has extended its gains against most currencies today. What is seen as a successful US-China summit and a swing in expectations for Fed policy are aiding the greenback. The anticipated…...
$580 Million Frozen Over One FX Transaction: The Yim Leak Case and Thailand's Enforcement Problem
Thailand’s Anti‑Money Laundering Office has frozen more than 20 billion baht (about $580 million) tied to Cambodian businessman Yim Leak, even though the underlying transaction was a modest $165,000 FX transfer processed through a regulated pooled‑liquidity clearing account. The authorities traced every...
Indian Rupee Slides to Record Low of 96.07 per Dollar Amid West Asia Tensions
The Indian rupee fell to a fresh record low of 96.07 per U.S. dollar on Friday, extending a three‑day slide. Soaring Brent crude, a stronger dollar and heightened West Asia tensions amplified pressure on the currency.
Sweden's Riksbank Likely to Hike Rates Early Q4
Sweden’s central bank will probably raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points in the final quarter of this year, earlier than previously seen, according to a Bloomberg survey https://t.co/PwBoXFvnPE via @ottummelas https://t.co/zTKIbFmOaj
Dollar's Global Reserve Share Drops to 58%, Shrinking Big‑4 Dominance
The US dollar’s share of globally allocated foreign exchange reserves has fallen from over 70% in the late 1990s to approximately 58% today. This development pulls down the share of ‘Big 4’ currencies – inclusive of the dollar, euro, yen,...
The Real Cost of Forex Trading—Everything That Eats Your P&L Beyond the Spread
Forex traders often focus on the headline spread, but the true cost of a trade includes seven hidden fees: spread markup, commissions, slippage, swap/rollover charges, inactivity fees, withdrawal and conversion costs, and execution‑related opportunity loss. These expenses can multiply during...
Japan Currency Intervention Not Likely to Sustainably Curb Yen Weakness - Poll
A Reuters poll of economists shows most expect the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate to 1.00% in June, with the median forecast keeping the Q4 rate at 1.25%. Seventy‑four percent doubt that currency intervention can sustainably curb...
Turkish Central Bank Raises 2026 Inflation Forecast to 26% and Keeps All Policy Tools Open
Turkey’s central bank lifted its year‑end 2026 inflation forecast to 26%, up from a 15‑21% range, and said all monetary‑policy options remain on the table. The revision reflects higher oil prices, rising import costs and persistent food‑price pressures linked to...
The Dollar’s Status Through the Lens of Foreign Exchange Reserves
The U.S. dollar’s share of official foreign‑exchange reserves has slipped from over 70% in the late 1990s to roughly 58% today. Goldberg and Hannaoui demonstrate that this headline decline conflates two separate forces: shifts in countries’ preferences for dollar assets...
Indonesian Rupiah Hits Record Low; Bank Indonesia Promises Smart Interventions
Indonesia's central bank announced "smart interventions" in foreign‑exchange markets after the rupiah slipped to a record low. Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti said Bank Indonesia will stay active via spot trades, offshore and domestic NDFs, and broader monetary tools. The...
Japan's Zero‑Rate Policy Fueled Global Yen Carry Trade
For decades, Japan was the foundation of one of the largest global macro trades in financial history: The “yen carry trade.” Japan kept interest rates near 0% for decades as the country battled deflation and weak economic growth. That created a...
Bessent Hints BOJ Should Raise Rates to Boost Yen
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that the Bank of Japan should raise interest rates at its June meeting to bolster the yen, which has slipped to roughly ¥155 per dollar. He framed the comment as a subtle "jawbone" intervention, suggesting...
The NZDUSD Falls to New Lows and Tests the Low of a Key Swing Area
The NZDUSD is hovering near session lows, pressing against a key swing zone between 0.5918 and 0.5935 that recently flipped from resistance to support. The 200‑hour moving average sits at 0.5934 within this band, adding technical weight. A decisive break...
Yen Slides to 157.9 per Dollar as Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise
The Japanese yen weakened to around 157.9 per U.S. dollar, extending a three‑day decline driven by stronger inflation data and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The move kept the dollar index near a weekly high of 98.5...
The Buying and Selling in the USDJPY Cannot Be Sustained in Either Direction
The USDJPY pair swung sharply today, dropping from the 157.97 resistance to a low near 157.30 before rebounding. The decline breached key swing lows from March 19 and April 17 and slipped beneath the 100‑hour and 100‑day moving averages, creating...
US Dollar Hits Near‑Week High as CPI Surprises and Fed Hike Odds Rise
The greenback surged to a one‑week high after April CPI jumped 3.8% YoY and PPI rose 6% YoY, reviving bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates later this year. The rally lifted the US Dollar Index to 98.53 and...
Dollar Poised to Break Higher Amid Stable Euro, Sterling
US Dollar Threatening to Break Higher: The US dollar is trading quietly against the major currencies. The euro is holding above $1.17 and sterling is holding above $1.35, but the market does not appear done probing these support areas. The...
Chinese Yuan Hits 3‑Year High as Trump‑Xi Summit Begins
The Chinese onshore yuan surged to 6.79 per dollar, a three‑year peak, on the first day of the Trump‑Xi summit. The move, driven by trade‑surplus strength and expectations of smoother U.S.–China ties, revives debate over the yuan’s role versus the...
Mo Ibrahim: Africa Loses $5bn in Currency Conversion Costs Yearly
A Mo Ibrahim Foundation report estimates Africa loses roughly $5 billion each year to currency‑conversion fees, a hidden cost that inflates intra‑continental trade expenses. The expense compounds existing non‑tariff barriers and slows progress toward the African Continental Free Trade Area’s target of...
Russian MOEX Slides to 2,682 Points as Yuan Weakens to $0.15
On May 13, Russia’s MOEX index fell to 2,682 points and the yuan exchange rate slipped to 10.81 rubles per yuan (about $0.15). The decline reversed a brief rally the day before and reignited concerns about capital flows between the...
Goldman Sachs Forecasts Stronger Dollar and Higher Rates as Energy Shock Persists
Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. dollar to appreciate further while interest rates remain elevated, linking both trends to a sustained energy‑price shock and surprisingly resilient economic growth. The outlook signals a “higher‑for‑longer” rate environment that could reshape global capital flows.
RBI Governor Warns Fuel Price Hikes if Oil Stays Above $100 Amid West Asia Conflict
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned that a sustained West Asia conflict could push retail petrol and diesel prices higher as crude oil hovers above $100 a barrel. The warning comes amid a widening current‑account deficit, a depreciating...
Indian Rupee Slides to Record Low of 95.74 per Dollar as Oil Prices Surge
The Indian rupee fell to a fresh all‑time low of 95.74 per U.S. dollar, pressured by soaring Brent crude and heightened geopolitical risk. RBI interventions and a hike in gold‑import duties aim to stem the slide, but capital outflows and...
Central Banks Swap Dollar Reserves for Gold Surge
🧵#DEDOLLARIZATION DAILY: History is back, it brought gold, and the dollar is losing. The dollar isn't losing reserve dominance to the euro, yuan, or yen. It's losing to a metal. Deutsche Bank's research is unambiguous: ↳ Dollar share of global central bank reserves:...