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Every morning
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Warsh warns Fed balance‑sheet cuts won’t unlock stimulus
Kevin Warsh, a Fed chair hopeful, argues that reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet would free up stimulus to push fed‑funds rates lower. The article counters that the roughly $3 trillion in reserve balances—about 9% of U.S. GDP—are required by banks and regulation, not a source of economic stimulus.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) clarified that call‑rate levels below the repo rate are a liquidity‑comfort measure, not a prelude to a rate cut. In March, the weighted‑average call rate (WACR) held at 5.25%, aligning with the 5.25% policy repo rate, while banking‑system liquidity showed a daily‑average surplus of ₹1.57 lakh crore (≈$19 bn). RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasized that the lower end of the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) corridor is being used to assure banks of ample liquidity amid heightened uncertainty. The LAF floor remains at 5%, the ceiling at 5.5%, with the repo rate positioned centrally.
March's Fed minutes show broad support for a patient approach to forthcoming rate decisions, but splintering views over what the biggest risk from the Iran war will be. A vast majority of policymakers now expect slower progress toward the 2%...
The Fed minutes showed "the vast majority" of officials thought inflation progress could be slower than expected, driven by three overlapping concerns: tariff effects on goods prices that may take longer to fade, oil prices bleeding into core inflation, and...
In this episode of FX Moment, Chief FX Strategist Audrey Charles Freeman and Chief UK Economist Dan Hansen examine how the recent US‑Iran cease‑fire announcement is easing market sentiment and reshaping the outlook for sterling. They argue that the war‑driven...
Three flows: stock market backend settlement, commodities, FX. Each $6-7T daily volume. Total $18-21T daily XRPL throughput. NASDAQ and NYSE tokenization confirmed. Canton lacks clarity, Project Ion finalized 2022 using XRP settlement.
The U.S. dollar on Wednesday fell to a two-year low against the Brazilian real, down about 19% from its Dec. 2024 peak. Applying this to CBOT soybean prices: 🇺🇸Beans (USD) are up 11% from this same week last year 🇧🇷Beans (BRL) are...
The central banks of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have signed a five‑year currency swap agreement worth roughly $5.3 billion (BHD 2 billion or AED 20 billion). The pact is designed to provide mutual liquidity support, promote the use of local currencies in trade,...
The Reserve Bank of India warned that rising energy prices and a strong dollar could push the current account deficit (CAD) higher in FY27, after it widened to 1.3% of GDP in Q3 2025‑26. Net capital inflows fell short of...
A new paper in the Journal of Post‑Keynesian Economics details how the US dollar became the world’s primary currency, largely thanks to a secret 1974 Saudi‑oil‑for‑Treasury‑bond pact that expired in 2024. The study argues that the petrodollar arrangement allowed the...
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ Brazil's 10-year bond yield tumbled toward 13.7% as crude oil prices plunged, improving the inflation outlook. ⦿ US crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3. ⦿ US 10-year...
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark policy repo rate steady at 5.25% and reiterated a neutral stance on April 8, 2026. The decision came as the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee cited resilient macro fundamentals despite heightened geopolitical...
A durable cease-fire narrows the tail risks for the Fed on both sides, but it may do so asymmetrically: it cuts off the demand destruction tail that could have forced near-term cuts arguably more than it cuts off the upside...
📊 AUDUSD D1 – Trade Update 🔥 The pullback move is complete and our Take Profit has been hit. 🎯📈 📉 Now the market is shifting back into the bearish direction. 🎯 Next Plan: • Wait for selling opportunities • Use lower timeframe confirmation before...
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council is expected to keep its main policy rate at 3.75% through the end of 2024 as global uncertainty and a lingering energy shock persist. Despite a weaker-than-expected pass‑through of oil price hikes to domestic fuel costs...
What Lesetja Kganyago describes here as the structural mechanism, '𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝘁, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗯𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲'. That part is always true, it is textbook stuff. But every...
The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister said the Indian rupee is likely to settle between 92 and 93 per U.S. dollar after recent volatility from global tensions and foreign institutional investor outflows. A temporary cease‑fire between the United...
📊 EURUSD – Weekly Time Frame Forecast 🔎 On the Weekly timeframe, we have a clear bearish structure shift 📉 ⚡ The market is also reacting from a strong Order Block (OB) + Fair Value Gap (FVG) — a high-probability confluence zone. 🎯...
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The People’s Bank of China is likely to set the yuan’s midpoint at 6.8773 per dollar, a level that suggests a modest tightening of policy. At the same time, official data show China’s foreign‑exchange reserves fell 2.5% in March to...
Traders have sharply revised expectations for Bank of England policy, now pricing in only a single 25‑basis‑point rate hike after a cease‑fire between the US, Israel and Iran eased Middle‑East tensions. The two‑year gilt yield fell to 4.1%, down from...
A two‑week ceasefire in the Middle East has pulled oil prices and related markets off the brink of extreme stress. Brent crude slid roughly 16%, prompting a mechanical unwind of the war‑driven risk premium, while equities steadied and the yield...
The latest Elliott Wave analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) indicates the currency is approaching a decisive low, often termed the "final washout." While market chatter focuses on imminent Fed rate cuts, rising liquidity, and a structurally weaker dollar,...
The Reserve Bank of India raised its FY27 baseline crude‑oil price to $85 per barrel, up from $70 in the second half of FY26, and lifted its rupee projection to 94 per dollar, up from 88. The revision follows a...
The USD/JPY pair slipped this week as a relief rally lifted the yen against the dollar following the announcement of a US‑Iran cease‑fire agreement. Traders are debating whether the dip represents a buying opportunity or a temporary correction. Elliott Wave...
A two‑week cease‑fire between Iran and its adversaries has sparked a broad risk‑on rally, lifting equities, steepening yield curves and prompting a rebound in most currencies against the dollar. The U.S. dollar index, which rose about 3 % in March, slipped...
EWM Interactive released an Elliott Wave update on the EUR/USD pair, highlighting a sharp rally on April 8, 2026. The analysis applies Elliott Wave theory to the recent price surge, identifying the move as a potential Wave 3 impulse. Key price targets and...
The U.S. dollar fell sharply after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and oil prices slipped below $100 a barrel, erasing much of the war‑premium that had buoyed the greenback. The move sparked a risk‑on rally, with Asian equity indices such as South...
The RBI is balancing inflation control with growth support, keeping rates unchanged amid global uncertainties, while projecting solid GDP growth but slightly softer momentum next year.
The Financial Times’ Monetary Policy Radar team has been introduced, showcasing five senior contributors who specialize in European central‑bank analysis. Chris Giles leads the unit as the FT’s economics commentator, while Andrew Whiffin brings a decade of corporate‑commentary experience. Data‑driven...
The Indian rupee jumped 50 paise to 92.56 per dollar in early trade after President Donald Trump announced a two‑week suspension of US strikes on Iran. The cease‑fire sparked a broad rally in risk assets, with Asian equities, gold and silver...
The Indian rupee weakened to 93.07 per U.S. dollar, slipping 17 paise in early trade. The move was driven by Brent crude climbing to $111.11 a barrel and a $16 billion pull‑back of foreign capital, underscoring how commodity shocks are outweighing...
The US dollar traded at roughly IQD 1,550 in Iraq’s parallel market on April 7, 2026, barely moving from the previous week. The stability comes as the official Central Bank rate sits at IQD 1,300 per dollar, underscoring a widening official‑parallel gap but...
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central reference rate at 6.8680 for the current trading session, modestly weaker than the Reuters estimate of 6.8369. The central bank maintains a +/-2% daily trading band around this reference, allowing...
Good morning, I woke up to the best news ever - we got a two-week ceasefire that has lit Asian and risks assets that have been languishing on the closure of the Strait. The Korean won is rallying the hardest, followed...
Next week's macro docket is nuts. The IMF will update its WEO; China Q1 GDP; Bank earnings start and the Fed Beige Book will inform the Apr 29 FOMC decision (among other many other listings). Are we going to be...
Some catalysts over the next hour or so... 1pm ET - WH Press conference re: difference between Iran 10 and American 15 point plans 1:15pm - Netanyahu press conference re ceasefire 2pm - March FOMC minutes
It's the Dollar versus EM that's been the key leading indicator for USD direction and that's now tumbling (black). We're in a new regime for the Dollar and are going back to the 2010-2013 period, when Dollar weakness was primarily...
The Dollar is tumbling as I forecast in my posts predicting a ceasefire. USD will now unwind all its rise from the past month, which was entirely due to short-term safe haven flows that'll now reverse. We're back to Dollar...
The Fed’s Overton window appears to be changing. Recent speeches suggest a shift in thinking from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity. Details in my latest newsletter: https://t.co/pPOkB73y6o @vtg2 @NickTimiraos @Isabel_Schnabel @conksresearch https://t.co/RyKoxuTxMA
The Brazilian Real today is strengthening sharply against the Dollar. $/BRL has fallen below where it was on Feb. 27, i.e. before the war with Iran began. The Real will now start a big strengthening cycle. Back to $/BRL fair...
Followed by everyone, and it does seem like everyone in EZ rate space, who has been long ERZ6 since 97 and change.
2 days before going on vacation, the key targets were hit. #DXY 200 DMA https://t.co/iYwNgfojQK
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI inflation slowed to 30.87%/yr in March, down from 31.53%/yr in February. With its money supply, M3, still growing at 39.9%/yr, Turkey’s #1 problem REMAINS Inflation. Monetary policy is still too loose. https://t.co/2EpdZjFZ8x
According to Newsday, the release of the New Bank Notes caused a SPIKE in the exchange rate from 1:26 to 1:40 …. Why are @TrevorNcube’s publications always selling negative FAKE NEWS? Surely the @ReserveBankZIM should seek a retraction, this is how...
Romania’s central bank governor joined calls for the Black Sea nation to revive a goal of adopting the euro as the country seeks to get through a painful period of austerity https://t.co/SjqJU4C4eB https://t.co/wJj4vWehdb
To be blunt, no one gave this memo to China's banks External dollar assets up, external dollar liabilities down -- net long dollars way up. and we already know from other banking data that the dollar long increased significantly in...
Very rare event in the 23-hr futures market where you rarely ever see gaps. Look at the #DXY tonight #forex $UUP $FXE #DXY https://t.co/vOGAm4AaUO
Rus, AD, Peso - RS leaders on the weeklies. of course, most all the weeklies look swank w this move (!) https://t.co/WhyaID8PTk
The $DXY has dropped after the ceasefire news. There is some debate that can be had over whether it is a break with follow through. There is a H&S pattern there on the 4hour chart. Neckline around 99.50 https://t.co/uKdc2tAE8J
According to Fedlock, today's speech from Fed Governor Jefferson was his most hawkish since 2023 https://t.co/rgs6erEO5l
