Today's Currencies Pulse
Australian Dollar Slides Toward $0.60 as US Dollar Index Holds Firm
The Australian dollar fell toward the $0.60 per U.S. dollar mark as the US Dollar Index steadied higher. The AUD lagged behind the yen, which also faced pressure, while rising gold prices point to either higher real yields or further DXY strength. Volatile oil prices added to risk aversion across commodity‑linked currencies.
Bank of Canada Set to Hold Rates as Economists Urge Patience Amid Mixed Signals
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% on June 8, even after a surprisingly strong May jobs report that added 88,000 positions and pushed the unemployment rate down to 6.6%. Economists view the data as one piece of a mixed picture that includes two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction and lingering oil‑price volatility. Major Canadian banks broadly agree the central bank will stay on hold through the rest of 2026, with any hike deferred to 2027. Trade‑related risks under the CUSMA framework add further uncertainty to the policy outlook.
Sovereign Money Is Not Debt: Why Central Bank Accounting Must Change
Central banks currently list reserves and currency as liabilities, implying the money they issue is a debt owed to banks and the public. Economists Biagio Bossone and Massimo Costa argue this view is conceptually wrong, proposing that sovereign money should...
Australian Dollar Hits Two‑Month Low as RBA Rate‑Cut Fears Mount
The Australian dollar slipped to a two‑month trough, touching 0.7035 USD and 112.63 per yen, as traders priced in possible Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts. The move deepened losses against the euro, Canadian and New Zealand dollars, prompting analysts to flag...
India Rupee Defense Lifts Key Forex Tool Past $110 Billion Mark
India’s central bank has pushed its net‑short dollar book to roughly $110‑115 billion, setting a fresh record across both on‑shore and off‑shore markets. The position rose sharply from $95.3 billion in April, eclipsing the previous high of $103.1 billion recorded the month before....
Market Outlook for the Week of 8thst-12th June
The week ahead is light on major events, but markets will focus on a slate of data releases and central‑bank decisions. Australia’s Westpac sentiment index rose 3.5% in May, yet remains in the low‑80s, while the U.S. is set to...
Olli Rehn: Europe's Economy Under the Weight of Power Politics
Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland, warned that heightened geopolitics—particularly the Iran conflict and Russia’s war—are weighing on euro‑area growth and inflation, outlining three possible inflation paths and stressing that monetary policy must focus on whether shocks become...
India’s Forex Reserves Jump $938 M to $682.32 B, RBI Signals Strong FDI Outlook
The Reserve Bank of India reported a $938 million increase in foreign‑exchange reserves to $682.32 billion for the week ended May 28, reversing a prior $7.51 billion dip. The rise was driven by a $3.12 billion gain in foreign‑currency assets, while gold holdings fell $2.19 billion,...
Monday Morning Early Indications on FX Moves: Eyes on Japanese Intervention
Asian markets opened with modest risk‑off moves, pulling the Aussie to 0.7024 and the Kiwi to 0.5784 against the dollar. The euro, pound and franc also slipped slightly, reflecting thin Sunday‑open liquidity and Friday’s equity sell‑off amid Middle East tensions....
JPMorgan Shifts to Neutral on Turkish Assets Amid Election Risk and Dollarisation Fears
JPMorgan Chase & Co. closed its overweight position on Turkish assets and adopted a neutral stance, warning that the probability of a snap election before 2026 has risen. The bank highlighted inflation pressures and the risk of renewed dollarisation, as...
ECB Reports Money Supply Cooling to 2.7% as Euro‑Area Household Borrowing Holds Steady
The European Central Bank said the broad monetary aggregate M3 grew 2.7% year‑on‑year in April, down from 3.2% in March, while the narrower M1 slowed to 3.8% from 4.7%. Household loan growth held at 3.0%, indicating steady consumer borrowing despite...
Newsquawk Week in Focus: US CPI, OPEC, AAPL WWDC, BoC, ECB, UK GDP and Chinese Inflation
The week’s outlook centers on Apple’s WWDC 2026, where the company is expected to unveil a standalone Siri app and broader AI integration, marking CEO Tim Cook’s likely final keynote. Central banks dominate the calendar, with the Bank of Canada...
Azerbaijan Manat Holds Steady at 1.70 per USD Amid Regional Currency Shifts
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan reported that the manat's weighted average exchange rate against the U.S. dollar held at 1.7000 this week, unchanged from the prior period. Minor declines were noted against the euro, Russian ruble and Turkish lira, underscoring...
Indonesia's Central Bank, Finance Ministry Raise Asset Yields to Support Rupiah
Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo and Finance Minister Zulkifli Hasan Purbaya announced a joint plan to boost yields on Indonesian assets, aiming to draw portfolio inflows and shore up the rupiah after weeks of record lows. The move comes as...
Iran Central Bank Publishes June 7 Official Rial Rates Amid Ongoing Conflict
Iran's central bank released its official foreign‑exchange rates for June 7, providing the benchmark that guides rial pricing across the country. The publication comes as the war with the United States and Israel continues to strain regional markets, making the rates...
South Korea Unveils Measures to Stem Won Slide, Curb Speculation
South Korea announced a package of measures to curb speculation after the won fell to its weakest level since 2009, slipping to about 1,562 won per dollar (≈ $1). Deputy Prime Minister Koo Yun‑Cheol convened an emergency meeting with the Bank...
Russia’s Central Bank Ties Euro‑Ruble Rate to Dollar and ECB Benchmarks to Tame Volatility
The Bank of Russia announced that the official euro‑rouble rate will be derived from the U.S. dollar‑rouble rate and the European Central Bank’s euro‑dollar rate, a shift aimed at stabilising the ruble amid erratic swings. The move addresses low liquidity...
Yen Near 160/$ as Gulf Tensions Power Dollar Surge
The Japanese yen fell to 159.93 per dollar, brushing the historic 160‑per‑dollar intervention line, while Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned Japan stands ready to act. The move was amplified by heightened Gulf tensions that have buoyed the U.S. dollar against...
ECB Steps Up as G7’s Lead Hawk With Interest-Rate Hike Primed
The European Central Bank is poised to lift its benchmark rate by a quarter‑point on Thursday, marking the most pronounced tightening move among the G7 this cycle. The hike is driven by heightened inflationary pressure linked to the ongoing Iran...
Chinese Banks Lift Dollar Deposit Rates as Yuan Climbs 3% YTD
At least five Chinese banks have raised the rates they pay on U.S. dollar deposits to roughly or above the 3.61% SOFR benchmark. The move, seen as a coordinated effort to temper a 3% yuan gain this year, could reshape...
RBI Keeps Repo Rate at 5.25% as Inflation Lingers and Global Risks Rise
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee left the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on June 5, 2026. With headline CPI at 3.5% in April, the board balanced growth support against mounting wholesale inflation, a weakening rupee and...
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – June 8th, 2026
The euro‑dollar pair slipped 1.2% last week after U.S. non‑farm payrolls (NFP) outperformed expectations, triggering a bearish move that Elliott Wave analysts had anticipated. The analysis suggests the pair could test deeper lows before a corrective wave emerges. A key...
US Nonfarm Payrolls Surge, Sending Dollar Higher and NZD to Two‑Month Lows
The US added 172,000 jobs in May, far above forecasts, propelling the dollar higher and driving the New Zealand dollar to a two‑month low of 0.5791. The surprise data sharpened market bets that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for...
Indonesian Officials Vow Again to Steady Rupiah, Draw Funds
Indonesia’s finance ministry and Bank Indonesia pledged tighter coordination to stabilise the rupiah and lure capital after the currency slipped 8% and the stock index plunged 39% in five months, making it the world’s worst performer. Governor Perry Warjiyo announced...
RBI Signals Possible 50‑bp Rate‑Hike Cycle Starting Oct 2026
The Reserve Bank of India kept its repo rate at 5.25% on June 5 but, according to Elara Capital and market commentary, is likely to start a 50‑basis‑point tightening cycle in October 2026. The forecast follows a package of foreign‑capital...
PSUs to Get Concessional Forex Swaps to Boost External Borrowings
India’s central bank announced a concessional foreign‑exchange swap facility for public‑sector undertakings, running through September 30, to spur external commercial borrowings and increase dollar inflows. The RBI did not set a specific borrowing target but expects “healthy” flows over the next...
China's
Bidding for dollars to keep the dollars out of settlement (and thus out of the PBOC/ whoever now helps the PBOC warehouse the fx bought in settlement) is one of China's oldest tricks -- 1/2
BSP Likely to Keep Raising Rates as Inflation Eases Slightly, Analysts Say
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to raise its benchmark rate beyond the recent 4.5% move, even as headline inflation shows a modest slowdown. Analysts cite persistent energy‑price shocks, a sharp $1.6 billion net outflow of short‑term foreign funds...
Lebanon Depletes $640 Million of Reserves to Keep Pound at 89,500 per Dollar
Lebanon’s central bank has slashed foreign‑exchange reserves by roughly $640 million to hold the Lebanese pound steady at about 89,500 per U.S. dollar. The move buys temporary exchange‑rate stability but deepens concerns over the country’s fiscal fragility as war damage piles...
BNP Paribas Predicts Fed Will Undo 2025 Rate Cuts
BNP Paribas: "We now expect the Fed to reverse 2025’s three 'insurance' rate cuts at sequential meetings, beginning in December."
Three Pillars Powering a Strong US Dollar
last week, i debated Clocktower's China-based strategist on the dollar. I laid out three key drivers of a strong USD: 1) US nominal growth outperformance, 2) Interest-rate differentials, 3) Hard power read my side of it: https://t.co/JHqZ8melDk https://t.co/yCvqwgu7zO
Pakistan’s Forex Reserves Near $18bn as Trade Gap Swells, Rupee Under Pressure
Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $17.2 bn for the week ending May 29, putting the country on track to hit an $18 bn target by June’s end. Analysts warn that a $35 bn trade deficit for FY26 could spark a sharp current‑account swing...
New Fed May Sap Market's Reaction Function to US Jobs Report
The market is bracing for the U.S. May jobs report, which Bloomberg forecasts will add only 88,000 jobs—well below the 150,000 average of March and April. With new Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the helm, the report is expected to have little...
Euro Gains on Lebanon Ceasefire as Market Sentiment Improves
The euro rose against major currencies on Thursday following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, despite a disappointing Eurozone retail sales report. Lower oil prices and U.S. President Donald Trump's optimism on U.S.-Iran talks further buoyed risk...
‘So What? 100 Is Just a Number’: PM Modi's EAC Member Dismisses Alarm over Rupee’s Potential Fall to Triple Digits
Shamika Ravi, a member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Economic Advisory Council, dismissed alarm over the Indian rupee potentially slipping to 100 per U.S. dollar, calling the level “just a number.” She argued that policy should focus on managing the broader economic...
Chhangani’s Piece on Digital Yuan Cited in European Central Bank’s Report on the International Role of the Euro
The European Central Bank’s June 2026 report on the international role of the euro references Alisha Chhangani’s recent analysis of China’s digital yuan. The citation underscores the growing relevance of the digital yuan as a cross‑border payment instrument and its potential...
June ECB Cheat Sheet: How to Train Your Hawks
The European Central Bank is expected to deliver a 25‑basis‑point rate hike on June 11, a move already priced in by markets. The central bank’s primary goal will be to reinforce hawkish expectations and prevent inflation expectations from de‑anchoring amid volatile...
RBI, Govt Unveil Measures to Attract Foreign Inflows in Bonds, Equities
The Reserve Bank of India and the government announced a package of reforms aimed at pulling foreign capital into Indian bonds and equities. Key steps include expanding the Fully Accessible Route to 15‑, 30‑ and 40‑year government securities, granting FPIs...
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25%; Markets Rise as Financials Gain, Metals Drag
India’s central bank left its repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on June 5, 2026, while the Monetary Policy Committee lifted its FY27 inflation outlook to 5.1% and trimmed growth to 6.6%. The RBI also announced a package of capital‑account measures—including expanded...
India Central Bank Takes Steps to Boost Rupee, Holds Rate
India’s central bank kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% while unveiling a package aimed at strengthening the rupee. The measures include simplifying foreign investors’ access to Indian government bonds and equities and a cut in capital‑gains tax for foreign...
Japan Warns of ‘Decisive Action’ to Defend Yen as FX Reserves Tumble
Japan’s finance minister warned of "decisive action" as the yen hovered around the critical 160‑per‑dollar line, a threshold that historically triggers official intervention. The warning follows a record‑size yen‑buying operation that shaved $77.1 billion, or 5.6%, off Japan’s foreign‑exchange reserves, bringing...
PBOC Resumes Injections After Two-Day Pause that Forced Banks to Deploy Idle Cash
China's People's Bank of China (PBOC) resumed liquidity injections on Friday, adding 215 billion yuan (≈$30 billion) via seven‑day reverse repos after a two‑day pause. Over the week ending June 6, the central bank withdrew a net 682.7 billion yuan (≈$96 billion), its biggest weekly...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.8157 (Vs. Estimate at 6.7735)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8157, roughly 0.6% stronger than the Reuters estimate of 6.7735. The central bank kept its 7‑day reverse repo rate unchanged at 1.4% while injecting about 215 billion yuan (~$31.6 billion)...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.7735 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to fix the USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7735, according to Reuters estimates. China’s managed‑float regime lets the yuan move within a ±2 % band around the daily reference rate. The midpoint is derived from the...
ECB Set to Lift Deposit Rate to 2.25% in June, Fueling Euro‑Stock Volatility
The European Central Bank is expected to raise its policy deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting, a move fully priced in by markets. The hike aims to anchor inflation expectations amid persistent energy...
Swiss Inflation Holds at 0.6% in May, Bolstering Franc's Safe‑Haven Appeal
Switzerland's Federal Statistical Office reported that consumer price inflation stayed at 0.6% year‑over‑year in May, exactly the same as April and below the 0.8% forecast. The data reinforces expectations that the Swiss National Bank will keep its policy stance unchanged,...
Czech Inflation Drops to 2.1% in May, Lifting Koruna Outlook
Czech consumer price inflation slowed to 2.1% year‑over‑year in May, well below the 2.5% rise in April and under the 2.3% consensus forecast. The surprise dip strengthens the case for a firmer Czech koruna and raises doubts that the Czech...
RBI Dismisses Bloomberg $12 B Forex Sale Claim as Fake
'RBI Slams Bloomberg Report, Rejects $12 Billion Forex Sale Claims as FAKE". #rbi #india #factcheck
Creative Policy Needed to Support Korean Won, Test US Intervention
Indeed Probably time for some creative policy making to support the won in Korea (a pause in NPS outflows is the obvious variable) and perhaps test the willingness of the US to engage in joint intervention? 1/
Eurozone Retail Sales Drop 0.4% in April, Missing Forecast and Pressuring the Euro
Eurozone retail sales slipped 0.4% in April, missing analysts' expectations for a 0.3% decline. The weaker‑than‑expected data deepens concerns about consumer demand and fuels short‑term pressure on the euro against the dollar.
USDJPY Hits 4‑year Low Volatility, Prompting Likely BOJ Intervention
$USDJPY's 20-day (1 trading month) ATR has hit its lowest level since April 23, 2019. This is the third most 'extreme quiet' for the pair in the past four decades... It's very likely the MOF - via the BOJ - attempts...