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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Fed balance‑sheet shrinkage won’t automatically lower rates, says Warsh
Kevin Warsh argues that reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could free stimulus for lower fed‑funds rates. The article counters that the roughly $3 trillion in reserve balances—about 9% of U.S. GDP—are required by banks and regulation, so trimming holdings merely releases idle assets rather than driving rate cuts.
The pound slipped to about $1.3420 per dollar as markets brace for the U.S. consumer price index. Traders have cut expectations for Bank of England hikes to 30‑40 basis points this year, while the Federal Reserve is still seen cutting rates once by year‑end and possibly again in 2027.
The GBP/USD pair is trading near the lower edge of a well‑defined resistance ceiling between 1.34708 and 1.3488 that has capped upside for six weeks. Buyers remain active, but a break above the ceiling would force short covering and spark...
The article argues that the Federal Reserve must stay agile as geopolitical shocks and soaring energy and fertilizer prices threaten to reignite inflation. It warns that the Fed’s overly accommodative stance in 2021‑22 helped push inflation to a 9% peak,...
The European Central Bank is advancing its digital euro project, originally launched in 2020, as EU legislation clears the path for implementation. The digital currency is envisioned as a cash‑like token to complement physical euros in everyday transactions. ECB officials...
Coming up on CNBC with Kelly Evans & Steve Liesman to talk inflation and the road forward with the Federal Reserve.
The euro appreciated on Friday after ING highlighted that markets now price only a 6‑basis‑point ECB hike on 30 April, with about 55 basis points still priced by year‑end. The analyst expects the euro to hold near 1.1700 against the dollar, outpacing...
The Bank of Korea kept its seven‑day repurchase rate unchanged at 2.50% for the seventh consecutive meeting, matching a 93% market expectation. The decision came as inflationary pressure from oil prices and exchange‑rate volatility rose, but a surge in semiconductor...
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will adopt a wait‑and‑see approach ahead of its April 23 policy meeting, citing the need for clearer evidence of second‑round inflation from the current global oil shock. March inflation accelerated to 4.1 percent, overshooting the central...
The U.S. dollar slipped on Friday, positioning it for its largest weekly decline since January as investors unwound safe‑haven bets following a fragile cease‑fire in the Gulf. The euro rose 1.8% and the pound 2% against the dollar, while the...
For a thorough answer to this question, I would highly recommend reading Bernanke's 2004 speech on this subject. Especially this part: "The public's expectation that inflation will remain low minimizes the second-round effects of oil price increases, which (in a virtuous...
The Indian rupee appreciated to 92.41 per U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday, later opening at 92.57, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) directive to curb banks' overnight dollar positions and heightened geopolitical risk in West Asia....
The Central Bank of Argentina’s latest REM survey lifted the median 2026 inflation forecast to 29.1%, a 3.1‑point jump driven by the Iran‑related oil price surge. The revision threatens the country’s recent disinflation gains and adds pressure on the peso,...
Investors are betting that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year as Europe confronts a fresh inflation surge. Natural‑gas prices have jumped roughly 40 % since February, driven by the U.S.–Israeli strikes on...
I was going to tweet @stripe should add a free exchange rates API after my OpenExchangeRates API started rate limiting me aggressively Then I searched and it already exists and is in beta called the Stripe FX Quotes API I'll try it...
The Australian dollar surged to its strongest level since 2023, trading around 0.7065‑0.7080 USD and up more than 10% year‑over‑year. The rally is driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's aggressive rate hikes to 4.10% and a robust commodity export...
The Reserve Bank of India’s abrupt limits on banks’ daily currency positions have forced a $30 billion unwind of arbitrage trades, sending foreign investors fleeing Indian sovereign bonds. The rupee rallied more than 2% to 92.66 per dollar, but banks face...
Nifty has been going up in the face of an enormous rise in FII selling [annual numbers]. So the selling has not mattered but still all eyes are on FIIs. I can only think of two factors. 1.Withholding Tax [ also...
The European session will feature only low‑tier releases—Swiss consumer confidence and Italian industrial production—so market impact is expected to be muted. Meanwhile, U.S. and Iran delegations are traveling to Islamabad to begin peace talks that could influence global economic stability....
The market awaits the March US CPI report, expected to show a 0.9‑percentage‑point monthly jump and a 3.4% year‑on‑year increase, with core inflation only modestly higher. A higher‑than‑expected headline could keep the dollar firm, but the Fed is likely to...
The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on April 10, citing persistent inflation and heightened geopolitical risk. Governor Rhee, set to retire on April 20, emphasized a data‑dependent approach and avoided any forward guidance on future...
🔥Gold is making history: Gold now makes up 24% of global central bank reserves, surpassing US Treasuries at 21% for the first time since the mid 1990s. This is a complete reversal from Q4 2015, when Treasuries made up 33% of reserves...
Iranian state media rejected reports of a U.S. delegation in Islamabad, insisting talks will only resume after a Lebanon ceasefire. Japan’s finance minister Shunichi Katayama warned of possible FX intervention as oil‑driven volatility spikes, while the Bank of Japan flagged...
The IMF’s COFER data show the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign‑exchange reserves has slipped, driven by a weaker dollar and a rally in gold prices. When exchange‑rate effects are stripped out, the dollar’s share actually rose after 2024 Q4,...
There are a lot of stories about Chinese assets acting like havens, especially China IG credit outperforming. How do you square that with a very weak economy? Well, the reason China IG credit is outperforming is because of the weak economy....
Iran’s parliament is trying to ensure that Hormuz transit fees will be paid in RIAL. I currently measure that the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs. the USD since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran. STAY TUNED. https://t.co/o5Mv9sigwg
The Japanese yen slipped back toward ¥159 per dollar and the South Korean won opened at 1,480.6 per dollar as investors reacted to renewed doubts over a newly‑brokered US‑Iran ceasefire. The moves underscore how Middle‑East geopolitics are reverberating through Asian...
Joe Gagnon (@GagnonMacro) should take a victory lap; the IMF has conceded intervention does have a real impact -- "A growing empirical literature finds that such intervention can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances" 1/
Seriously, we have less than 40 minutes until exchange hours close and we loose liquidity for the week. If you have exposure that you feel is 'risky' should the US-Iran conflict kick off again over the weekend, consider cutting or...
Russia's central bank is weighing a pause in its series of interest‑rate cuts, a move that could shore up the ruble as inflation stays near 4‑5% and Middle‑East tensions loom. Advisor Kirill Tremasov said the April board will assess the...
We've entered the phase where the Dollar falls hard against EM. This is driven by a mix of markets feeling like the war is winding down and oil prices still very elevated, which boosts commodity exporting countries like Brazil. Real...
As soon as markets decided Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 wasn't going to lead to WW3, Brazil's Real began rallying hard. It's the same now. The US is clearly eager for a ceasefire and trying to de-escalate. The Brazilian...
Thoughtful Money moderated a live debate between Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, and Brent Johnson, founder of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, to assess the fallout from the US‑Israel war with Iran. The discussion explored whether...
⚠️ US inflation 🔥hotter than prior month Cooler than forecast 🥶 With Oil Drop, inflation fears easing CPI MoM 0.9% in line (Prev 0.3%) CPI YoY 3.3% (Forecast 3.4%, Prev 2.4%) Core CPI MoM 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%) Core CPI YoY 2.6% (Forecast...
G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks: The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today, ahead of the March US CPI report. The dollar bloc and the Japanese yen are struggling. However, the tone is mostly…...
HSBC’s latest geopolitical paper argues that a de‑escalation of global tensions will diminish the U.S. dollar’s safe‑haven appeal. With reduced risk, demand for the dollar should fall, allowing higher‑risk, undervalued currencies to rally. Emerging‑market (EM) currencies and those of energy‑importing...
How bad is the US inflation picture? The spike in oil prices will push up March CPI later today, but - under the hood - inflation is well behaved. Yesterday's PCE reading for February showed core services inflation (blue) slowing....
The G10 fx consolidation today looks constructive. Today's North American highlights including US March CPI and Canada's jobs data. Middle East ceasefire is frayed but intact ahead of the weekend negotiations. Hungary holds key election too. See https://t.co/ilDfPE14fW https://t.co/vM5PZMv4eI
The United States faces a projected cumulative deficit of $22 trillion over the next ten years, far exceeding official forecasts that assume no new wars or recessions. To fund this gap, the Federal Reserve will likely resort to massive balance‑sheet expansion,...
Today we'll see the first impact of higher oil prices on CPI. The news could rock the markets like no other piece of fundamental data. We are going to trade it LIVE and see if we can get FUNDED in one trade. Join...
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Libya's oil production has stabilized at ~1.3 million barrels/day and the price has SOARED. As night follows day, the Libyan dinar APPRECIATED by 27% vs. the USD. https://t.co/5PPdIEUYSV
India, the world’s top remittance recipient with $135 billion in 2025 inflows, is set to speed up inbound foreign‑exchange transfers. The Reserve Bank of India issued a final circular mandating banks to credit payments to beneficiaries on the same business day...
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's March inflation is 7.3%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15%/yr. That’s ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5-7%/yr. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/IKlK5BLB5t
The Once Uber-Dovish ECB Continues QT, Shed €66 Billion in March, Has now Shed 50% of QE Assets since Peak. Marking its gold to market every quarter (unlike the Fed), the ECB booked another big write-up of its gold holdings in...
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Open market operations (OMOs) are the Federal Reserve’s primary tool for adjusting the money supply by buying or selling Treasury securities. Permanent OMOs involve outright purchases or sales to shape long‑term rates, while temporary OMOs use repos and reverse repos...
Kevin Hassett tells @MariaBartiromo the inflation from the oil-price shock will be temporary and should allow the Fed to continue cutting interest rates: "There are a lot of people who are currently at the Federal Reserve that understand that, that this...
Markets are sitting right at those make-or-break levels before the NY open. Everyone's watching to see which way we break. Tomorrow we'll be tracking these key zones live with the DOTS indicator to catch the moves as they develop. https://t.co/66dSROf2rQ...
The Feb PCE deflator - Fed's favorite inflation measure - held at 2.8% earlier. That's well above the 2.0% target...before energy prices sored. Tomorrow's March CPI update is expected to accelerate from 2.4% in Feb to 3.3%. Here's the #Dollar...
"But what currency will replace the USD in global FX reserves?" -Question I've been asked repeatedly over the past 10 years. "No currency will...gold will." -My answer every time over those 10 years. What if the currency system...
The Brazilian real is outperforming every major currency in the world year to date. I was told this could never happen — but here we are. Welcome to a new LatAm cycle, folks. Exciting times ahead for this region. https://t.co/tvtFhSgOxD https://t.co/6dbPKm7I3L
Thailand's March CPI is -0.08%/yr. That's the 12th consecutive month in DEFLATION. In the past 3 years, its money supply has grown BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 5.4-7.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting a 1-3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY...
