Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Fed balance‑sheet shrinkage won’t automatically lower rates, says Warsh
Kevin Warsh argues that reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could free stimulus for lower fed‑funds rates. The article counters that the roughly $3 trillion in reserve balances—about 9% of U.S. GDP—are required by banks and regulation, so trimming holdings merely releases idle assets rather than driving rate cuts.
Marex Group plc announced the launch of a dedicated Private Markets desk, headed by Jack Carnell and Lloyd Beeston. The unit will deliver institutional‑grade foreign‑exchange and interest‑rate hedging solutions tailored to private‑capital managers. Leveraging Marex’s proprietary technology, investment‑grade credit rating and global market connectivity, the desk aims to smooth risk across investment and financing horizons. The service expands Marex’s suite of offerings for private market investors seeking more resilient risk profiles.
Rates down. Dollar down. Commodities and Latam stocks surging. A reminder: This is a supply-driven market — hiking rates won’t solve the problem. If anything, a higher cost of debt only worsens it by tightening access to capital. And to be fair: The US...
My remarks w/ @DailyCaller on the French withdrawing $15B in gold from the US: “The risk of having foreign reserve assets frozen in the US came up when the US & its allies froze Russian central bank assets in Feb. 2022.” I anticipate...
The Indonesian rupiah weakened to roughly 17,070 per U.S. dollar on April 9, 2026, intensifying cost‑push inflation for manufacturers that rely on imported components. Business leaders warned the slide threatens cash flow, margins and overall demand, and urged the government...
Throughout history, all fiat currencies eventually face the same pressures. When debt grows faster than income and money needs to be created to fill the gap, the value of that money changes. This isn’t a prediction—it’s a pattern that has repeated...
The Reserve Bank of India has released new guidelines to accelerate cross‑border inward payments. Banks must credit inbound funds received during foreign‑exchange market hours on the same business day and those received after hours on the next business day, while...
The Reserve Bank of India issued a prudential circular on March 27 requiring banks to cap their net open position in INR at $100 million, with compliance due by April 10. In response, banks have unwound roughly 90 percent of the estimated $18‑30 billion...
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said it will keep monitoring the impact of the Middle East war after S&P Global Ratings downgraded the Philippines' sovereign outlook from positive to stable while keeping the BBB+ rating. S&P cited the country's strong...
The latest data - out today - show gold holdings by Turkey's central bank falling a further 8 tons in the week to April 3. This brings the total drop to 128 tons since depreciation pressure on the Lira peg...
Barry Eichengreen argues that the United States is losing its status as the world’s primary currency issuer, likening today’s dollar decline to the fall of Rome’s denarius. He points to chronic economic stagnation, a debt load surpassing $31 trillion, and costly...
The Central Bank of Liberia announced a new banknote‑printing program to replace mutilated notes and match expanding transactional demand. Deputy Director P. Mah Kruah said the move is coordinated with the IMF and will be sized to market needs, while officials...
President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week ceasefire with Iran sent U.S. crude down 16.4% to $94.41 a barrel, sparked a 2.5% jump in the S&P 500, and drove the dollar to its lowest level in four weeks. Traders now...
The announcement of a two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran sent U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields down 8 basis points to 4.23% and sparked a broad rally in sovereign bonds worldwide. The move erased a sizable risk premium on...
At a Sciences Po address on April 2, 2026, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau highlighted that the eurozone entered the year with a rare "2 % inflation, 2 % interest rate" equilibrium. He warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could reignite...
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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), founded on April 1, 1935 under the RBI Act of 1934, serves as India’s central bank and monetary authority. It formulates and implements monetary policy, regulates currency issuance, and oversees the nation’s credit and foreign‑exchange markets....
The US dollar showed mixed performance Thursday, edging higher against the yen while slipping modestly versus the euro and pound. The move comes amid lingering uncertainty over a potential cease‑fire in the Israel‑Iran conflict, which has driven oil prices up...
After the ceasefire announcement, market pricing shows a broadly dovish repricing of interest‑rate expectations as inflation worries ease. The Fed now shows a 7‑basis‑point cut probability with a 98% chance of holding rates at the next meeting. Most other central...
The rupee lingered at 92.65 per dollar on Thursday, squeezed by volatility from a fragile US‑Iran cease‑fire and the Reserve Bank of India’s suggestion that policy rates could remain low for the next year. Traders unwound roughly $40 billion of arbitrage...
Warren Buffett doesn't believe in the Fed's 2% inflation target. Neither do I. If the goal is "price stability," - why ANY inflation? That 2% compounded is robbing your purchasing power. Here's a thought: What if prices should actually go DOWN? Everyone...
KBank, StraitsX, and Grab Launch Blockchain Cross-Border Payments Thailand's KBank + StraitsX + Grab enable real-time Thailand–Singapore payments via Q Wallet. XSGD stablecoin powers settlement, travelers scan QR codes for instant blockchain settlement bypassing traditional FX costs. Tech: Q-money (KBank's e-money...
The U.S. dollar held modest gains on Thursday as traders remained cautious amid a fragile U.S.-Iran truce. Risk‑off sentiment tempered the rally, leaving European equity indices slightly lower and the DAX still riding yesterday’s 5% surge. In the FX market,...
An oil‑price surge linked to the Iran conflict has pushed the European Central Bank out of its previously comfortable stance, reviving expectations of up to three rate hikes this year. Short‑end money‑market rates have fallen, yet no systemic stress is...
Denis Beau, senior official at Banque de France, outlined the EU’s strategic response to the rise of USD‑denominated stablecoins. He warned that unchecked “stablecoinisation” and “dollarisation” could threaten Europe’s monetary sovereignty and advocated preserving the two‑tier system of central‑bank money...
Eurozone leaders reaffirmed the strategic importance of a digital euro, linking it to monetary sovereignty, reduced retail‑payment fragmentation, and Single Market resilience. The Eurosystem is advancing technical preparations but will only issue the token‑based currency after a dedicated legal framework...
I still look back at this setup I made $200k trading On USDCAD which was a record month for me trading in terms of gains obviously. It was a simple bullish impulse structure setup Watch the breakdown and recap here https://youtu.be/jlAr5hdXLc0?si=TSGu9_2ivAhZZf0G
Gabriel Makhlouf, the ECB’s chief economist, warned that the ongoing Middle‑East conflict is creating a deep energy supply shock that could push oil to $145 per barrel and keep euro‑area inflation above the 2 % target through 2027. He outlined three...
Luis de Guindos warned that Europe faces heightened geopolitical uncertainty, especially from the Middle‑East war, which threatens energy prices and financial stability. He noted the euro area grew 1.5% in 2025 and inflation has hovered near the ECB’s 2% target,...
The South African Rand is in the process of mean reverting now, i.e. the last few years it has been pulling back (‘strengthening’) from recent lows of around R19.90 region. It hit a cycle high of around R15.68 (Jan, 26)...
Wow I wasn't aware just how positive Brazilian real rates were. This would be like if U.S. interest rates at 12%... https://t.co/M9wTdfi05a
Australian dollar momentum has surged as the US Dollar Index stalls, while the Chinese yuan continues its upward trajectory. Commodity markets have shifted, with oil prices plunging and gold prices rallying, creating a backdrop for a potential AUD super‑cycle. Analyst...
This is the kind wedge pattern break that offers clear resolution for tech observers... $DXY Dollar Index: https://t.co/MwWVvohhYo
I spoke to @SeanPmathews about KING DOLLAR: "Sanctions, wars, and tariffs make it easier for the dollar's challengers. But the US is the biggest, most liquid capital market in the world, bigger than all the others put together. That’s why king...
A ceasefire between the United States and Iran has eased the growth‑downside risk that previously bolstered the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts. While markets have nudged up the odds of easing, analyst Nick Timiraos argues that inflation pressures remain...
#VNZWatch 🇻🇪: In an attempt to prop up the collapsing bolívar, the government has sold about $330 million to purchase bolívars. This is a futile exercise. THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD REPLACE THE BOLÍVAR WITH THE GREENBACK IMMEDIATELY. https://t.co/J9kJ4mZ9TB
The Euro got hijacked by high-debt countries to foster the illusion they're solvent. But yield caps don't confer fiscal space, which is why - when a shock like Ukraine hits - Spain (ES), Italy (IT) and France (FR) can't help....
Westpac predicts the Australian dollar will be capped between $0.7100 and $0.7150 over the next one to two weeks unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens and the US‑Iran ceasefire proves durable. The bank’s FX chief says a breakout higher...
Italy's cash budget deficit in Mar '26 is the biggest ever, wider even than Mar '20 at the height of COVID. At the root of this lies the ECB, which is co-opted by high-debt countries and protects them from markets....
Sterling is carrying more of a war premium than the euro in options https://t.co/0TGxw7IWtw via @vkaramanis_fx https://t.co/auNGmA7b1x
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY mid‑point at 6.8649, within its usual ±2% trading band. The central bank also injected roughly 500 million yuan (about $73 million) into the market through a 7‑day reverse‑repo operation, leaving the repo rate...
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its cash rate at 2.25% for a second meeting, noting that earlier rate cuts are still feeding through the economy. Governor Anna Breman said growth this year hinges on a swift resolution to...
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8315, according to Reuters estimates. The midpoint is announced each morning and defines a ±2% trading band for the onshore yuan. A stronger-than-expected midpoint is...
SDR: Bretton Woods 1944 basket currency, GDP-weighted. IMF lender of last resort. 2014 IMF paper introduced exchange rate peg abbreviation. Ripples rebranded XRP same timeframe. XRP likely bridge between SDR currencies, not replacement.
North Macedonia's foreign exchange reserves rose 9.6% year‑on‑year to €4.249 bn (about $4.6 bn) in March 2026, according to the central bank. The gain follows a 5.5% dip in February, which the bank linked to rising business costs from Middle‑East tensions. Securities still...
The Reserve Bank of India announced that its recent non‑deliverable forward (NDF) market curbs are temporary, targeting speculative pressure linked to the West Asia conflict. Banks must trim net open forex positions to $100 million by April 10, with no deadline extension,...
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) clarified that call‑rate levels below the repo rate are a liquidity‑comfort measure, not a prelude to a rate cut. In March, the weighted‑average call rate (WACR) held at 5.25%, aligning with the 5.25% policy...
March's Fed minutes show broad support for a patient approach to forthcoming rate decisions, but splintering views over what the biggest risk from the Iran war will be. A vast majority of policymakers now expect slower progress toward the 2%...
The Fed minutes showed "the vast majority" of officials thought inflation progress could be slower than expected, driven by three overlapping concerns: tariff effects on goods prices that may take longer to fade, oil prices bleeding into core inflation, and...
This is literally a CBDC which sounds great because we are getting one in or around 2031 and traditional finance is currently preparing for it. Crypto is dead.
According to the FT, the FED has MISSED its 2% inflation target for 60 STRAIGHT MONTHS. Across the world, 3 out of 4 developed economies and 1 in 2 emerging economies are missing their targets as well. THE GLOBAL INFLATION GENIE REMAINS...
It is remarkable that the NZ 2-year yield saw little adjustment with the RBNZ's hawkish shift. The NZ-US 2-year spread was essentially unchanged despite the $NZUSD rally. Remarkable
