Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – May 11th, 2026

Key Takeaways

• EURUSD rose on optimism about US‑Iran peace reducing rate‑hike risk
• Elliott Wave count shows uptrend facing resistance near 1.10
• Fed policy outlook now linked to geopolitical resolution, not inflation data
• Traders await wave‑count confirmation before adding to long positions
• Potential pullback may spark short‑term volatility in major pairs

Pulse Analysis

The recent uptick in EURUSD underscores how geopolitical headlines can quickly translate into currency market moves. A tentative US‑Iran peace agreement has softened expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to tighten monetary policy further, a scenario that previously weighed on risk‑on assets. With inflation still above target but the Fed’s next rate decision now seen as more data‑dependent, investors are reallocating toward higher‑yielding currencies, giving the euro a relative boost against the dollar.

Elliott Wave practitioners interpret the price action as an emerging impulse wave, suggesting the pair is still in a bullish phase. The wave count identifies a critical resistance level around 1.10, a zone where prior corrective waves have stalled. Should price breach this threshold with strong volume, the next wave could extend the rally, reinforcing the euro’s momentum. Conversely, a failure to break the barrier may trigger a corrective wave, prompting short‑term retracements and heightened volatility for traders monitoring wave‑structure cues.

For market participants, the confluence of reduced geopolitical tension and a potentially more dovish Fed creates a nuanced risk landscape. Forex desks are likely to adjust position sizing, favoring the euro while keeping protective stops near the identified resistance. Asset managers should also consider the broader impact on emerging‑market currencies that tend to move in tandem with risk sentiment. Monitoring both macro developments and technical wave counts will be essential for navigating the EURUSD trajectory over the coming weeks.