Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
ECB faces binary decision on rates, says Dutch central bank chief
Olaf Sleijpen, president of the Dutch central bank, told a finance podcast that the European Central Bank’s upcoming Governing Council meeting will centre on either raising interest rates further or keeping them unchanged. He noted the discussion will take place in Frankfurt in a few weeks when the board reviews fresh inflation data.
The market is experiencing a broad liquidity withdrawal, turning the U.S. dollar into the primary exit asset as equities, bonds and precious metals sell simultaneously. Elevated oil prices are driving risk premia across asset classes, eclipsing central‑bank influence and tightening financial conditions. The euro is exposed to a repricing shock due to stretched rate expectations amid weakening European growth. While the Fed projects a softer stance, its mixed signals only marginally affect the dollar’s dominance in this risk‑off environment.
In a March 20 interview, ECB Vice‑President Luis de Guindos warned that the Middle‑East war will significantly pressure euro‑area growth and inflation, though he does not expect a recession even under the most severe scenarios. The central bank’s baseline assumes...
Japan is considering trimming its inflation‑linked government bond buy‑backs to about ¥15 billion per operation for April and June, down from ¥20 billion a month in Q1. The change follows a rise in break‑even inflation rates above 1.9%, indicating stronger investor demand...
The run-up in energy prices is making a very awkward Fed transition even more fraught. This was already complicated. Kevin Warsh's confirmation is stalled by the DOJ probe and the Tillis blockade. Plus, unlike every incoming Fed chair since Volcker, Warsh...
Traders fully price 4 quarter-point hikes from the BOE in 2026 https://t.co/W64ms8NeB5 via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/61ntA97cXa
Analysts warn that the US dollar’s hold on global reserves is being tested. A projected 150‑basis‑point inflation surge in Nigeria, a 30% plunge in US student visas for China and India, and heightened Middle‑East tensions are cited as warning signs....
1/4 I am a little surprised by these comments from the governor of the PBoC. According to Yicai, yesterday he said that "the world’s major deficit countries are the same as 40 years ago because of the inherent flaws in the...
This is perhaps the reason why the US dollar has failed to rally meaningfully amidst today's market carnage. It's likely also the key reason behind the collapse in gold prices.
The US‑Iran war has forced major central banks to pause rate cuts, reversing earlier expectations. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan all kept rates steady, while Sweden and Switzerland...
Through the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran, the Iranian rial has demonstrated surprising resilience. It has APPRECIATED 12% against the USD. https://t.co/eDotRHK77c
So far we've basically spend all of Asia fliing the gap and grinding towrads ORB high. At this point I guess we are going ot go tick for tick with every blast.
Iran's central bank has printed a 10 million‑rial banknote, the country's largest denomination ever, in response to soaring inflation that has eroded the rial's value. The move signals a desperate attempt to keep cash circulation functional and could reshape regional FX...
And Indian tanker has reportedly paid in Chinese yuan. Welcome to the #petroYuan market (thanks donald)
🔺 The $2 Trillion Shift: Is Tokenized Money About to Kill Traditional Banking? 💸 By 2030, tokenized money could be a $2T market. But while the tech is moving fast, the global financial map is becoming a "fragmented mess" of rules. 💬...
A Renmin University report urges China to trim its $3.42 trillion foreign‑exchange reserves, which sit at roughly 16% of GDP, to a more moderate level of about 11.5% of GDP as the yuan gains global traction. The paper argues that a...
Best performing currency in the world in the last 3 months = Norway's Krone +6.0% https://t.co/QTiHlRp0kL
The U.S. is accumulating enemies faster than you can shake a stick. Chinese President Xi SEES AN OPENING. Xi has made a new push the renminbi to be a global reserve currency. https://t.co/qMpgMEp3Fo
South Korea named economist Shin Hyun‑song, famed for foreseeing the 2008 crisis, as the next Bank of Korea governor as the nation confronts inflation risks from the Iran war and uneven Asian growth. In the United States, a federal jury held...
DXY up 3% in a month on safe-haven demand. Oil up 50%. Dollar up AND oil up simultaneously. Emerging markets are getting crushed from both sides. This is the squeeze nobody is modeling. https://t.co/xogAtPGq0m
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in February, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/Q0L3lNddlP
Swissquote reported record H2‑2025 results, with revenues of CHF 365.2 million ($461 million) and net profit of CHF 208.2 million ($263 million), up 2 % and 32 % respectively. Admirals Group disclosed a €18.5 million loss for 2025 and will relinquish its Estonia investment‑firm licence as part of a...
"Gold and silver... [are] distinct from modern forms of money or currency. Currencies such as the US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Brazilian Real or the Euro can be created at the will of central banks. Precious metals cannot.” –Invest Local (2014)...
Markets are now pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING by year-end. Not cuts. Tightening. Six months ago the market expected 3+ cuts in 2026. Next potential cut: autumn 2027. Good luck hitting even that. https://t.co/mmyLstJwNe
The Bank of England is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged through next year, as inflation pressures persist. Oxford Economics attributes the heightened risk to rising energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The central bank’s...
Senior BIS economist @HyunSongShin has been named by South Korea’s president to run the Bank of Korea https://t.co/NVLP6R3Dox
Short-term rates (black) are rising as markets settle in for a long war. That pushes up long-term yields, a problem for any high-debt country out there. The last time we saw this in 2022, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts...
South Korea announced Shin Hyun Song, a veteran BIS official and financial‑stability scholar, as its next Bank of Korea governor. The nomination comes as the BOK faces heightened uncertainty from the Iran conflict, rising oil prices and a delicate balance...
Light on US data next week but PMIs are key. These are the events to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US Jobless Claims & UMich Revisions 🇪🇺 EU - PMIs and GE IFO 🇬🇧 GBP -PMIs -Retail Sales -CPI 🇦🇺 AU -PMIs -CPI 🇯🇵 JP -CPI -BoJ Minutes
🇮🇷 Iran has issued a new 10,000,000 Iranian Rial note today, worth just $7. https://t.co/btef2P8Bcv
The Reserve Bank of India’s 622nd central board meeting in Patna approved the 2026‑27 budget and the Utkarsh 3.0 medium‑term strategy while warning of heightened global volatility, currency pressure and inflation risks. The rupee slid nearly 3% in March, touching...
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's inflation is 7.0%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15.1%/yr. That’s above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5%/yr-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/x28UBeLyKl
Everyone is watching oil in dollars. Almost nobody is watching oil in yen. That's where the real risk is. If Japan panics, the carry trade unwinds again — and this time it won't be a two-day event. I laid it all out on CNBC...
Traders now price a greater than 60% chance the Federal Reserve will raise rates by October, after the March meeting left the policy range unchanged. A surge in Brent crude above $109 per barrel has pushed 10‑year Treasury yields to...
The Fed’s Inaction is a Green Light for Gold Here’s my take: The data confirms the Fed is way behind the curve. Inflation is out of control, and they can’t rein it in. Their failure to hike rates isn't bearish for...
India's foreign‑exchange reserves fell $7.05 bn to $709.75 bn in the week to March 13, after the RBI sold roughly $6 bn in the spot market and a revaluation loss hit foreign‑currency assets. The decline underscores mounting pressure on the country's external balance amid...
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced another interest‑rate increase as inflation and cost‑of‑living pressures intensify, compounded by geopolitical risks from the war in Iran. Independent economist Nicki Hutley, featured in Guardian Australia’s “Full Story” podcast, argued the central bank should...
The eight supplied articles cover topics ranging from civil‑rights protests to Jamaican education initiatives, but none address the Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting, the US dollar's movement, or gold prices. Consequently, specific details, quotes, and figures for a currency‑focused story...
Last time the world faced a big supply shock - after COVID in 2022 - the Yen went into a depreciation spiral, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts and the Gilt market blew up in the UK. This environment is...
Week Ahead: The War and Anticipated Policy Responses Drive the Capital Markets: There are two main drivers in the foreign exchange market: war and the anticipated monetary policy response. May WTI peaked on March 9 near $113.40. Last week, the...
The Capital Spectator’s Book Bits (21 March 2026) spotlights two new titles. Barry Eichengreen’s *Money Beyond Borders* examines the U.S. dollar’s more‑than‑10 % slide against major currencies since early 2025 and evaluates scenarios that could dethrone it, emphasizing domestic policy missteps. Gary A. Hoover’s...
China's central bank approved an additional twelve banks to process the digital yuan, extending the retail pilot that began in 2020. The expansion signals a push to deepen domestic adoption and could reshape foreign‑exchange and cross‑border payment flows, though specific...
EURUSD surged over 150 pips after the European Central Bank signaled readiness to resume rate‑hike discussions as early as April, reflecting persistent inflation pressures. The ECB’s hawkish pivot quickly lifted the euro against the dollar, underscoring the power of central‑bank...
The European Central Bank is advancing a digital euro to address the euro area’s reliance on non‑European card schemes, with 15 of 21 countries lacking a strong domestic digital payment option. A 12‑month pilot, beginning in the second half of...
China's central bank will add twelve new banks to the e‑CNY programme, expanding the roster from ten to twenty‑two institutions. The new participants include major joint‑stock banks such as China Everbright and city commercial banks like Bank of Ningbo. The...
The latest NBER paper shows a pronounced shift in the composition of global foreign‑exchange reserves. The U.S. dollar’s share slipped below 57% in Q3 2025, while gold overtook the euro to become the second‑largest reserve asset. Central banks are diversifying into...
Third attempt at TACO this week (one early in the week by Trump, one Thursday by Netanyahu - was that a NACHO?) Both of those failed because Iran and the bond market both get a say. This TACO attempt and all...
The Peterson Institute for International Economics convened a high‑level panel of central bank governors from New Zealand, Spain, Korea and Switzerland to examine open‑economy monetary policy in a rapidly shifting financial and geopolitical climate. Moderated by former Bank of Ireland governor...
Another remarkable change in net-speculative positioning comes from AUDUSD. A further nudge in the net long positioning, pushes futures spec interest to the heaviest long since October 2017. A carry drive as rate forecasts pick up https://t.co/sJ0Xl2KxxD
In case you missed it, net speculative futures positioning behind $EURUSD posted its biggest weekly 'net drop' on record - an 84K contract drop in the net long. That's a strong move away from the anti-dollar pressure over the past...
Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Bulls Rejected at Key Resistance https://t.co/rLrumlAN5T $USDCHF Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/pcvuoorqWD
