Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
ECB's Makhlouf: Not yet Seeing Changes in Consumer Behaviour From Higher Inflation
ECB policy chief Makhlouf told investors the central bank has not yet observed a noticeable shift in consumer spending despite higher inflation. He reiterated the ECB’s commitment to its inflation target and warned that any response to temporary price shocks will be measured. The official hinted that the bank could pause or scale back the 39‑basis‑point hike priced in through July if oil prices stabilize. The comments suggest a possible short‑term divergence from the Federal Reserve’s tighter stance.
Massive Money Printing Raises Bitcoin's Urgency, Not Delay
Governments have printed more money in the last 5 years than the previous 100 combined. And people still ask if it’s too late to buy Bitcoin
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Understanding Quantitative Tightening: How the Fed Reduces Market Liquidity
The Federal Reserve launched quantitative tightening (QT) in 2022, letting roughly $1 trillion of Treasury and mortgage‑backed securities mature without reinvestment to shrink its $9 trillion balance sheet. By reducing liquidity, QT pushes bond yields higher, raises borrowing costs and aims to...
Pound Hits Six‑Week High Above $1.35 per Dollar on Risk‑On Sentiment
The pound surged to a six‑week high of about 1.3515 against the U.S. dollar, outpacing all other G10 currencies. The rally was sparked by upbeat remarks from President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance on Iran negotiations, while traders...
ECB's Lagarde: We Are Between the Baseline and Adverse Scenarios
ECB President Christine Lagarde told investors the central bank is operating between its baseline and adverse economic scenarios. She emphasized a medium‑term outlook while monitoring data daily, stressing the need for agility and data‑dependence. Lagarde warned that the ECB will...
Philip R. Lane: The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area
Philip R. Lane, ECB Executive Board member, delivered a comprehensive briefing on the euro area’s monetary‑policy toolkit, recent balance‑sheet composition and the latest macroeconomic outlook. He highlighted that inflation, especially the non‑energy core component, remains sticky as of Q1 2026, while...
Euro Completes the Round Trip From the Start of the Iran War
The euro has reverted to the exchange rate it held at the start of the Iran‑War, suggesting both market resilience and a potential easing of the energy shock that has weighed on Europe. The IMF’s latest outlook projects 2024 European...
Monetary Policy Tightened in Singapore
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced a tightening of its exchange‑rate‑based monetary policy, the first adjustment since April 2022. The change follows quarterly reviews that earlier in 2025 delivered modest easings. MAS cited heightened uncertainty for growth and inflation, driven...
PBOC Expected to Set USD/CNY at 6.8173 as Yuan Slides to Three‑Year Low
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8173, according to Reuters estimates, as the yuan falls to a three‑year trough. The move comes amid a weakening dollar and optimism around U.S.–Iran diplomatic...
IMF Lowers 2026 Global GDP Growth Forecast to 3.1% vs 3.3% Prior
The IMF trimmed its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3%, citing the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices. The United States sees a modest downgrade to 2.3%, while the euro area falls to 1.1% and China...
Namibia’s Central Bank Lowers Economic Growth Forecasts
Namibia’s central bank slashed its GDP growth outlook, now projecting 2.6% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025, trimming previous estimates by 1.2 and 1.4 percentage points respectively. The downgrade reflects a sharper-than‑expected decline in metal ore output and persistent weakness...
How Central Banks Lose Credibility – and Why It Matters
A 2011 abrupt rate cut by Brazil’s central bank instantly unanchored both short‑ and long‑run inflation expectations, and it took five years for credibility to recover. High‑frequency Focus survey data show expectations spiked and became more volatile after the policy...
Ringgit Surges as War Risks Fade and USD Weakens
Ringgit “trumps” semua currency, consolidating ~3.95 vs USD as war risk dissipates. Ringgit today against: •Spore $. Highest since 26 Mar. •Rupiah. 4335.5 Rp just below ATH. (Or RM230 per 1mil Rp) •Yen. Above 40 Yen, up 0.7% Why? •US-Iran mngkin bincang semula....
Iraqi Dinar Stabilises Near 153.7 per Dollar as Regional Ceasefire Holds
The Iraqi dinar held at roughly 153.7 IQD per US dollar on Tuesday, reflecting the calming effect of a four‑day ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran. While the official rate stays at 130,000 IQD, the parallel market’s near‑record...
The Challenges Facing the New Head of the Federal Reserve
Kevin Warsh is set to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair pending Senate confirmation, inheriting a mixed economic backdrop. Initial jobless claims sit at a historic low of 202,000 and unemployment is 4.3%, yet total employment fell 0.4% year‑over‑year...
Singapore’s STI Holds Near Record Highs as Asian Markets Slip Over 1% on Middle‑East Tensions
Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI) barely slipped 0.3% to trade between 4,995 and 4,970, outpacing regional peers that fell more than 1% amid heightened Middle‑East tensions. The resilience is credited to a strong Singapore dollar, dividend‑rich constituents and a government‑backed...
Hong Kong Issues First Stablecoin Licences, Targeting HKD Digital Payments
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority approved its first stablecoin issuer licences, naming HSBC and a Standard Chartered‑led consortium as early participants. The move aims to bring regulated, USD‑linked stablecoins to the Hong Kong dollar ecosystem and could reshape cross‑border payments...
Singapore Q1 Preliminary GDP up 4.6% on Year, Misses 5.9% Forecast
Singapore’s economy expanded 4.6% year‑on‑year in the January‑March quarter, falling short of the 5.9% consensus forecast and decelerating from a 5.7% gain in the prior quarter. The slowdown reflects tighter monetary conditions as the Monetary Authority of Singapore raised policy...
FT Unveils China's “Sock 2.0
My work on this earth may be nearly over -- or at least my work of the last 4ys could be in its final chapter. The FT's Big Read is on the China sock 2.0 (one of my favorite phrases) and...
Media Misstates Rial, Actually Up 8% Since War
Since Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, frequent media reports indicate that the value of the rial has plunged. WRONG. Today, the rial fell just 0.3% vs the USD. Since the US-Israeli war on Iran, the rial has gained 8%...
AUD/USD Jumps to 0.709 as US‑Iran Talks Spark Aussie Rally
The AUD/USD pair surged to 0.7089, rebounding from a 0.6990 low, after President Donald Trump signaled renewed US‑Iran negotiations. The rally lifted the commodity‑linked Australian dollar and pressured the US Dollar Index, highlighting how geopolitics can swing forex markets.
Yuan Gains as USD Slides for Eight Straight Sessions
Beijing's campaign to accept a modest appreciation of the yuan continues. The fix was set at its lowest level in 3 yrs today. On weekly basis, it has risen 2x since last Sept. Today is the 8th consecutive session...
Higher Oil Prices Won’t Create Massive Petrodollar Surge
A new blog on a hot topic -- petrodollars The basic theme though is back when oil was at $70 there weren't actually many petrodollars -- and there won't be all that many of them even if oil settles at $100 https://t.co/NFWDnn5zbv 1/
EUR/USD Steadies at 1.1685 as ECB Hints at a Fourth Rate Hike
EUR/USD lingered at 1.1685 on Monday after the European Central Bank hinted it may raise rates for a fourth time this year. The level reflects a tug‑of‑war between a weakening dollar outlook and the ECB’s tighter‑policy stance, while analysts split...
DXY Slides, Rate Expectations Lose Grip on Dollar
Fed rate expectations are drawing less influence the bearings of the Dollar. The $DXY's slide - really a 'path of least resistance break' back into range - outpacing a modest shift in FOMC rate cut expectations: https://t.co/X6AzVkA5Mb
Fed Nominee Warsh Stuck in Uncontrollable Inflation Cycle
The Economist reports that Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is caught in an inflation vice. As I've been saying for some time, the Fed won't be able to put the inflation genie back in the bottle. https://t.co/KKXAW30dzz
Xi’s Petroyuan Dream Gets New Life From Trump’s War in Iran
The Iran‑Israel war has revived interest in a Chinese "petroyuan" as Tehran began accepting yuan for oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. A Chinese‑affiliated scholar noted a surge in yuan‑denominated crude, and the Cross‑Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS)...
Fed Holds, Iran Shock Won’t Stubbornly Raise Inflation
Bessent says the Fed is right to wait and see how the economy handles the Iran shock but expects it will not seep into inflation expectations, allowing cuts to eventually resume. "If ever there was ‘Team Transitory,’ it’s this."
Euro Hits Year‑High, Signals Broad Capital Shift
EUR/USD broke above 1.177 — the euro's strongest level in over a year. Dollar weakness + European resilience = a real structural move. When $EURUSD breaks out like this, global capital flows shift. Not just for FX traders — for every asset...
Global Shocks Are Back: Emerging Markets Holding Up
The latest U.S. Federal Reserve tightening in 2022‑23, despite raising rates over five percentage points, did not trigger the financial crises that historically followed such moves in emerging markets. Researchers attribute this resilience to two structural improvements: higher monetary‑policy credibility,...
Dollarizing Boosts Growth; Argentina Should Follow Suit
Ecuador and Montenegro both dumped their local currencies and “dollarized.” Stability and growth followed. Meanwhile, Argentina is plagued with the peso and lags behind. IT'S TIME FOR ARGENTINA TO DITCH THE PESO AND DOLLARIZE. https://t.co/KWvfRtgqwr
US PPI Hits 4%—Inflation Persists Despite Fed Easing
March’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) remains ELEVATED at 4.0%/yr—its highest reading since February 2023. As the Fed pivots away from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, it's having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/DCJ60m5pJO
BRICS Payment System – What Does It Mean for the Nordics?
The article examines the BRICS countries’ effort to build a cross‑border payment system that could be operational by 2029‑2030, offering an alternative to Western‑controlled settlement rails. It notes the New Development Bank’s role, having approved over $42.9 billion in loans and...
Lagarde Applauds Hungary's New Leader for Euro Entry Plan
Lagarde welcomes the new Hungarian leader’s plan to join the euro https://t.co/ccZ5XwRv1A via @flacqua @NickHeubeck @weberalexander https://t.co/6Ic3jaRRx6
Iran Conflict Eases Yuan Pressure as Banks Shed $30B
The Iran war took the heat off China's currency. After facing strong appreciation pressure from November through February, the direction of pressure changed in March -- The state banks look to have reduced their foreign assets by ~...
Oil Breaches $100 a Barrel, Sending Latin American Currencies Tumbling
Crude oil surged past $100 a barrel after U.S.–Iran talks collapsed, lifting prices about 6% and prompting a sharp sell‑off in Brazil’s real and Mexico’s peso. Colombia’s peso held steadier, and Peru’s sol edged higher, underscoring how oil spikes create...
Iran's Inflation ~64%, Rial up 8% Despite Claims
Startup Fortune (not Fortune magazine) claims Iran's inflation is 180% and the rial is in freefall. WRONG. I measure Iran's yearly inflation at 64%/yr. Since the war began, the rial has gained 8% vs the USD. I AM THE ONLY ACCURATE...
Dollar Slides Below 99, Signaling Eroding Confidence
DXY just broke below 99 — a 1.25-month low. Dollar weakness at this scale matters globally: commodities reprice, EM debt gets relief, US exporters benefit. But a structurally weaker $DXY also signals eroding confidence. That's the part worth watching. https://t.co/G2iZaPA5wz
USD/CAD Stalls Near 1.3840 as Oil Spikes and Fed Hawkishness Offset Each Other
USD/CAD traded around 1.3840 on Monday, caught between a near‑7% jump in WTI crude that supports the Canadian dollar and persistent expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve that buoy the U.S. dollar. The tug‑of‑war left the pair essentially flat...
America’s Empire: Unraveling or Deliberate Dollar Redesign?
Is the American Empire unwinding… or being deliberately reshaped? @SimonDixonTwitt joins me to break down: • Power structures above politics • The future of the dollar • What it means for your money Full interview 👇🏼 https://t.co/W13LI6XqRY
GBP/USD Eyes Seven-Day Surge, Resistance Ahead
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Surges for 7 Days- Resistance in Focus https://t.co/S48Wqar5jn $GBPUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/P6mS9cEUXe
Euro Continues to Climb as the Market Senses an End to the Iran War
The euro has recovered to its pre‑conflict level as traders price an end to the Iran‑Israel war and the reopening of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Europe’s heavy reliance on Hormuz‑bound crude makes the currency especially sensitive to...
Two‑Month Embargo Cuts China’s Emergency Reserves ~10%
"Even a two-month embargo would only see China depleting its emergency reserves by about 10%." https://t.co/9wseXtRVym https://t.co/ZfwXR9aAGx
US Dollar Gains as Optimism Overpowers Global Pessimism
Optimism Weighs on the Greenback: North American participants shrugged off the pessimism seen in Asia Pacific and Europe yesterday after the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend. The optimism was contagious and reports that another round of… https://t.co/xjkwmLy0gV https://t.co/5ocdwj561m
USD Slides Broadly as Iran Tail Risk Fades
USD trading down on a a very broad basis, as the market continues to price lower tail risk around Iran, despite the day to day fluctuations in spot oil prices
Sudan's Pound Ranks 6th Worst, Down 26% Amid War
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 26% against the USD over the past year. Given Sudan’s brutal civil war, it’s surprising that the pound hasn’t depreciated by more....
North Korean Won Plummets 62%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 62% against the USD over the past year. THE COLLAPSE OF THE WON = THE WORLD'S MOST UNDERREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/dxHRFaYUhS
Stocks Rally on Ceasefire Hopes; Commodities Stay Cautious
Stock markets and the US dollar are painting a rosy picture, with traders seemingly seeing a ceasefire heralding the end of the US-Iran war. Bonds, gold, and oil prices are telling a different story. #IranWar #StockMarket #gold #oil #macro #trading https://t.co/wLRi4EJNxA
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 84%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 84% against the USD over the past year. VENEZUELA’S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/gLHWv0eqUW
Iran's
@ResourceTalks I mention what most people miss: that I am the only reliable source of inflation measurements in Iran. "Since the war started, the Iranian rial has appreciated about 9-11% against the dollar, and inflation is down from over 80%/yr to...