Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
Yen emerges as world’s cheapest funding currency, fueling a $435B carry‑trade
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the cheapest source of funding globally, underpinning a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary of a sudden, aggressive tightening that could compress spreads and force borrowers to unwind yen‑denominated debt.
The Trump administration is advancing five domestic policy initiatives that touch credit, housing, monetary policy, corporate governance, and digital‑asset regulation. Proposed credit reforms would tighten loan underwriting, while housing changes could modify the mortgage interest deduction. Monetary officials hint at faster rate hikes and a governance push aims to boost board independence. Finally, a clear digital‑asset framework seeks to legitimize crypto markets and attract fintech investment.
Global equities have surged ahead of the U.S. market in 2026, with the MSCI EAFE up roughly 8% and the MSCI ACWI ex‑U.S. gaining about 8.5% year‑to‑date, while the S&P 500 is down 0.5%. Goldman Sachs notes this is the widest...
MillTech’s Q4 2025 Corporate Hedging Monitor shows UK corporates lost an average £6.71 million and US firms $9.85 million in 2025 due to unhedged foreign‑exchange exposure. Eighty percent of surveyed firms reported losses, prompting a rebound in hedging activity as average hedge ratios...
Europe is losing bargaining power with China as the continent’s growth stalls while Beijing posts a record trade surplus. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s upcoming China visit underscores the urgency, with Germany’s 2025 GDP expanding only 0.2% versus a $1.19 trillion Chinese surplus....
The U.S. dollar edged higher as markets awaited the Fed’s January minutes, looking for signals on the timing of the next rate cut. In the United Kingdom, CPI eased to 3.0% year‑on‑year, reinforcing expectations of a BoE rate reduction in...
In a February 2026 lecture, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel argued that Europe’s narrative of decline is misleading. She highlighted the continent’s high quality of life, strong institutions, and social protections as foundations for future growth. Schnabel emphasized that...
Anyone who trusts official Chinese reserve data is a fool. The blind spot in the official narrative about China "dropping the dollar" is China's continued SHADOW dollar reserve accumulation, which looks like the below chart👇 The big January increase in state banks'...
Sir David Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking at the Bank of England, outlined how the regulator’s resolution framework has changed since the 2023 failures of Silicon Valley Bank UK and Credit Suisse. He emphasized a shift toward greater...
The Indian rupee edged higher, closing at a provisional 90.67 per U.S. dollar, up five paise on the day. The modest gain was driven by fresh foreign fund inflows and a buoyant domestic equity market, which saw the Sensex climb...
ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone outlined the digital euro roadmap, confirming that the current preparation phase began in November 2025 and a pilot is slated for mid‑2027. The ECB aims for a first issuance in 2029, contingent on EU legislators...
The European Central Bank has signed a collaboration agreement with Spain’s ONCE Foundation to make the digital euro app universally accessible, especially for people with disabilities, older adults, and those with limited digital skills. The foundation will provide technical advice,...
Alberto Naudon, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, highlighted that 2025 delivered stronger‑than‑expected growth, with non‑mining activity expanding close to 3% and gross fixed capital formation rising about 7% driven by mining and energy projects. Inflation accelerated early...
USDCAD is climbing as Canada’s latest inflation data came in below expectations, reviving expectations of further Bank of Canada rate cuts. The softer CPI reading narrows the interest‑rate gap with the United States, making the U.S. dollar more attractive and...
USD/JPY edged higher this week as traders anticipate the Bank of Japan’s continued policy normalization. The pair’s modest rise reflects expectations of incremental BOJ rate hikes and a narrowing US‑Japan interest‑rate gap. An Elliott Wave update highlights a key resistance...
The EUR/USD pair slipped modestly this week as markets anticipate Friday's core PCE inflation report. Traders are closely watching the hourly chart, which now displays a nascent corrective Elliott Wave formation. The update suggests the pair could test near‑term support...
China met its official 5.0% GDP target in 2025, largely on the back of robust export growth to Asia, Europe and Latin America. Manufacturing investment, particularly in electric vehicles and electronics, remained resilient, while overall fixed‑asset investment fell 3.8% and...
The European Travel Commission forecasts a 6.2% rise in international arrivals to Europe this year, driven largely by a surge in Chinese and Indian tourists. Chinese visitor numbers are expected to jump 28% and Indian arrivals 9% compared with 2025,...
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its official cash rate unchanged at 2.25%, matching market expectations. While inflation stays above the 2% target, slower wage growth and softened demand reduce immediate pressure for further hikes. The RBNZ modestly raised...
How to trade it: → Candle closes above prior session high — look long on the first pullback to that level. Old resistance becomes new support. → Candle closes below prior session low — look short on the retest. Old support becomes...
Stop watching every candle. Only ONE matters... Not the first candle. Not the biggest candle. The candle that CLOSES above or below the prior session high or low. That's the candle that changes everything. Here's why most traders get this wrong: They see price...
Westpac’s Melbourne‑Institute Leading Index barely moved in January, posting a six‑month annualised gain of just +0.02% versus +0.44% in December. The slowdown reflects weakening consumer sentiment and a dip in dwelling approvals, while modest commodity price gains provided limited support....
EU Parliament Backs Digital Euro for Both Online and Offline Use - Fintech Schweiz Digital Finance News - FintechNewsCH https://t.co/mgf2DlIs9B
US Dollar is Mostly Firmer, amid Weak Conviction: The US dollar was sold to new session lows against several currency pairs late in the North American afternoon yesterday, but there has been little follow-through today. The greenback is firmer against…...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its Guidance on the Australian Clearing and Settlement (CS) Facility Resolution Regime, accompanied by a Response to Consultation that outlines stakeholder feedback. The Guidance clarifies how the RBA may exercise its crisis‑resolution...
$USD recovered from the late sell-off in North America yesterday. It is trading firmer against most G10 currencies, but short-term participants seem to lack much conviction. Key US data and SCOTUS still lie ahead. See https://t.co/Ax3iZrTLT7 https://t.co/01M5ylxWt7
The markets are extending higher after yesterday's V-shaped recovery - here's what it means 👇
The Bocconi Institute proposes six pragmatic reforms to close Europe’s “scale‑up gap” and boost venture‑capital financing for innovative firms. Using Dealroom data on 64,500 EU start‑ups, the report shows that VC investment in scale‑ups is under 10% of U.S. levels...
ECB yield caps give the illusion of fiscal sustainability, but it's just an illusion. A real shock like Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows high-debt countries have no money to help Ukraine. For the sake of Europe, the ECB needs to...
Once you reach 60, your conditional life expectancy is another 20+ years. Problem in Southern Europe is that relatively few people work, so population aging becomes very expensive for the state. That only gets fixed if the ECB steps back...
Tiago da Costa Cardoso has rejoined INFINOX as Commercial Director, returning to the Dubai‑based broker after a stint at Exinity, HFM and XTB. His appointment follows INFINOX’s recent receipt of a UAE Capital Market Authority license, positioning the firm for...
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 22.7%, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 13.1%/yr-17.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 5%/yr-9%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/V2EApGpMCY
Will stock markets tip over amid worries about the Fed dragging its feet on rate cuts? FOMC meeting minutes are in focus. #stockmarkets #fed #fomc #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/yYSQfOx27L
CME Group announced a $40,000 fine and a 30‑business‑day suspension for broker Kevin Milan after he disclosed material non‑public information about large crude oil futures orders in April‑May 2020. Milan shared order quantity, side, and contract months before the trades...
Fed governor Michael Barr's latest speech contains 1) A short part on the current policy outlook. The key guidance: "Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time." 2) A...
Two different measures of business inflation expectations have essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels. The Atlanta Fed survey (dark line), which asks businesses how much they expect their own unit costs to change, is back at 2%—right where it was in 2019....
Spotware has partnered with CFD broker GCI Trading to power its offering with the cTrader platform. The integration brings cTrader’s Traders First™ ethos, ultra‑fast execution and transparent trade lifecycle to GCI’s 24‑year‑old client base. GCI will now appear in the...
Today, US-Iran nuclear talks began in Geneva. As the talks start, the Iranian rial is in the tank. It has depreciated by over 43% against the dollar in the past year, making it THE SECOND WORST CURRENCY IN THE WORLD. https://t.co/PORIO6lGtc
DXY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, Gold, Bitcoin, Oil Weekly Technical Outlook (webinar archive) https://t.co/nitfuFDsGb Asset Chaptered on YouTube: https://t.co/yidtEBNR4M
Canada’s annual CPI slipped to 2.3% in January 2026, easing from a three‑month peak of 2.4% and landing just below market forecasts. The trimmed‑mean core rate fell to 2.4%, the lowest level since April 2021, indicating waning underlying price pressure....
Notable acceleration in the fx securities book of the Chinese state banks (And their reverse repo/ other funding of global financial institutions) in January -- consistent with the $90b monthly increase in the reported fx balance sheet https://t.co/PNDncW2w2s
If there was something else to "dig into", I would have. Dollar Up has its implied Correlation Risk today. I'll do what the signal does. It didn't change.
GBP/JPY slipped below the 210.00 psychological level, trading around 207.28 and marking a near two‑month low. The decline follows weaker UK labour‑market data that has pushed market consensus toward two Bank of England rate cuts this year, with the first...
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
$EURUSD has pulled back from its failed run on 1.20 a few weeks back - aligned to a 38.2% Fib of the 2008 to 2022 bear wave. Meanwhile, net speculative futures positioning has jumped this past week to its heaviest net-long...
The United States continues to dominate global growth, driven by an AI-fueled expansion, yet its flagship currency is unusually weak. Markets are now pricing U.S. policy uncertainty on par with economies that lack a reserve currency. Conflicting fiscal and monetary...
As @RayDalio, founder of the world's LARGEST hedge fund told @TuckerCarlson on central bank digital currencies: "There will be no privacy... all transactions will be known... and if you're politically disfavored, you could be shut off." https://t.co/3H4Lcz4ysb
Australia’s Reserve Bank highlighted an unexpected surge in private demand, driven largely by heightened household spending from the baby‑boomer cohort. The increase in consumer‑durable price growth reinforced this trend, prompting the RBA to raise the official cash rate by 0.25%....
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 3RD WORST currency. The won has depreciated by 41% against the USD over the past year. PLIGHT OF THE WON = ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST UNREPORTED STORIES. https://t.co/7leiebPd5D
Low-debt countries like Germany are hopelessly outnumbered at the ECB. That's why ECB policy is inexorably drifting to help high-debt countries at the expense of low debt ones. So no surprise BuBa President Nagel supports Eurobonds. Going with the flow......
UK Unemployment Rises and Private Pay Increases Slow to Five-Year Lows, Pulling Sterling Lower: The US dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies. A healthy reception to Japan’s five-year bond auction helped extend the rally in JGBs, and despite the…...
