Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
Argentina’s FX Peg Holds Amid External Shocks, Officials Say Reserves Near $45B
Central Bank Governor Santiago Bausili and Economy Minister Luis Caputo told an Atlantic Council audience that Argentina’s exchange‑rate regime stayed intact despite recent external pressures. They highlighted a reserve build‑up to $45.4 bn and an emerging‑market energy surplus as proof of policy resilience.
What Does Foreign Currency Funding Risk Mean for Markets?
Foreign currency funding risk, especially reliance on U.S. dollar financing, is emerging as a primary driver of global market stability. Unlike gradual interest‑rate moves, funding conditions can tighten abruptly, forcing banks and asset managers to unwind positions and repricing risk....
Rupee Weakness Drops India to Sixth in Global GDP Rankings
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: When measured in dollar terms, India falls from 4th to 6th in global GDP rankings. This slip can be laid at the rupee's doorstep. With the rupee down ~11% in FY26, India’s GDP is smaller in dollar terms. India...
Asia Week Ahead: Rate Decisions in China, Indonesia, Philippines and Key Data From Japan and Korea
Asian central banks are set to announce key policy moves next week. China is expected to leave its loan prime rates unchanged despite stronger‑than‑expected Q1 GDP, while Indonesia’s Bank Indonesia will likely keep rates steady as inflation hovers around 3.5%....
Monetary Policy Transmission in Primary and Secondary Markets: Evidence From Indian Government Securities
A new XKDR paper by Barik, Singh and Harsh Vardhan examines how RBI policy‑rate changes affect borrowing costs of Indian government securities. Using monthly data from 2004‑2025 and an ARDL error‑correction model, the authors find that policy‑rate pass‑through is near‑instant and...
Hedge Funds Boost Short‑Dollar Bets Ahead of US‑Iran Talks
Hedge funds have increased net short‑dollar exposure as renewed diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran raise expectations of a softer dollar. Bloomberg highlighted the shift, noting that the move reflects a broader tactical pivot toward currency plays. The...
ASX Slides 0.3% as China Housing Slump and Rate‑hike Fears Hit Banks
The ASX 200 slipped 23.7 points (0.26%) to 8,955 on Thursday, pressured by a robust Australian jobs report that revived expectations of further RBA tightening and by fresh data showing a deepening slump in China's housing market. The decline stood...
BOJ Must Take Into Account Japan’s Low Real Rates in Setting Policy, Governor Ueda Says
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said any rate‑hike decision must factor Japan’s persistently low real interest rates. He warned that inflation is being driven by a negative supply shock, notably higher oil prices, which is harder to curb with monetary policy....
USD/CAD Slides in Early Third‑Wave Decline, Holds Above 200‑SMA Near 1.3770
The USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.3770, staying just above its 200‑day simple moving average. Elliott Wave analysis identifies the start of a powerful third‑wave decline, while technical indicators flag limited upside and potential deeper pulls toward 1.33‑1.29.
Asian Currencies Slide as Oil Tops $110, LNG Soars 143% Amid Crisis
The US‑Israel‑Iran confrontation has driven oil above $110 a barrel and LNG up 143%, triggering a sharp depreciation of several Asian currencies. The shock is reshaping inflation outlooks and central‑bank policy across the region.
Wall Street Turns Gloomy on the Dollar as Haven Demand Fades
Wall Street’s optimism for the dollar’s safe‑haven status is fading as a tentative cease‑fire between the United States and Iran reduces war‑driven risk aversion. Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo argue the greenback’s rally, fueled by geopolitical tension, is likely over. Investors...
Gold Slides to $4,815 as Dollar Recovers, Silver Gains on Weak Dollar
Gold retreated to around $4,815 per ounce as the U.S. dollar index recovered, curbing the metal's earlier gains. At the same time, silver advanced, buoyed by the same dollar weakness and a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. Traders see the moves...
Peru's Trusted Central Bank Governor Faces Retirement Amid Political Turmoil
Peru is gearing up to elect its 10th president in 10 years, but another serious question weighs on the nation of 35 million people: What happens if its central-bank governor of 20 years retires this year? The central bank has a...
Foreign Investors Dump $1.5 Bn of Thai Assets as Iran War Spurs Energy Shock
Foreign investors withdrew $823 million from Thai equities and $705 million from bonds in March, driving the baht lower amid an energy shock from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The outflows, the biggest since October 2024, highlight Thailand’s vulnerability to rising oil...
FX Curbs Lift Hedging Costs 70 Bps, Dampening Demand for Indian Bonds
India's Reserve Bank has tightened foreign‑exchange rules, sending onshore hedging costs up 30 basis points and offshore non‑deliverable forward (NDF) costs up nearly 70 basis points. The surge in hedging expenses wipes out most of the carry on Indian government...
RBI Asks State Oil Refiners to Curb Spot Dollar Buying, Sources Say
The Reserve Bank of India has asked state‑run oil refiners—Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp and Bharat Petroleum Corp—to curb spot‑dollar purchases and instead draw on a special credit line administered by the State Bank of India. The move revives...
#166 - Freddie New - How Governments Destroy Money and Empires (The Lessons From Rome)
In this episode Freddie New examines how currency debasement contributed to the fall of the Roman Empire and draws parallels to modern monetary policy, especially the erosion of the British pound and U.S. dollar through extensive money printing. He explains...
SGD Firm Up as MAS Tightens Policy Amid Iran‑War Volatility
The Monetary Authority of Singapore raised its policy stance on April 14, the first hike since 2022, driving the Singapore dollar to about $0.79 USD and supporting local equities. The move, aimed at countering soaring oil and gas prices from the...
Colombia Readies $4 Billion Bond Buyback, Buys Dollars to Support Peso
The Colombian government is purchasing U.S. dollars this week as it gears up for a $4 billion external‑debt buyback. The dollar purchases have pulled the peso away from a five‑year high and sparked a rally in Colombian sovereign bonds.
Keeping High-Touch FX Execution Efficient, Transparent, and Connected
Automation has streamlined routine FX trades, but a sizable share of orders still demand high‑touch handling. Complex swaps, large sizes, and illiquid pairs often bypass electronic venues, forcing traders to negotiate, stage fills, and use manual tools. Disconnected workflows—spreadsheets, chats,...
FX Settlement Reveals China’s $35B March Currency Purchases
Fx settlement is in my view the single best proxy for China's true intervention. It looks like China, Inc bought about $35b in fx in March even with all the turmoil in the oil market. That's down...
ECB Minutes Suggest Governing Council May Need More Evidence Before Raising Rates
The European Central Bank’s latest meeting minutes reveal that the governing council is reluctant to raise interest rates without clearer evidence that inflation pressures are persisting. Officials highlighted mixed data on price growth, especially in services, and stressed the need...
Europe's Successes and the Path Forward
Isabel Schnabel, ECB Executive Board member, highlighted that the euro area has restored macro stability, with inflation back at target and steady real GDP growth since 2017, while financial markets have become more integrated and banks have improved capital ratios...
CBRT Deputy Governor Hatice Karahan Vows Cautious Policy Amid Middle East Crisis
CBRT Deputy Governor Hatice Karahan told the IIF Global Outlook Forum that the bank will adopt a cautious, data‑driven approach as the Middle East conflict creates a global supply‑side shock. She confirmed the pause on rate cuts in March and...
ECB's Kazaks: Market Pricing of Two Rate Hikes This Year Is Reasonable
ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaķs said market pricing of two additional rate hikes in 2024 is reasonable, with a 67 % probability for a June increase and about 50 basis points of tightening priced in by year‑end. The odds of an...
InvestingLive European Markets Wrap: No Rocking the Boat Just Yet
European markets edged higher as investors remained cautiously optimistic while awaiting concrete progress in the US‑Iran nuclear talks. The Nasdaq posted a new record high, its first in five months, buoyed by the same optimism that lifted S&P 500 futures....
On My Mind: The $ Is Dead, Long Live the $
The article challenges the growing narrative that the U.S. dollar is in rapid decline, arguing that its dominance remains underpinned by deep capital markets, institutional credibility, and the sheer scale of the U.S. economy. Recent Deutsche Bank research linking Middle‑East conflict...
Meeting of 18-19 March 2026
The ECB Governing Council met on 18‑19 March 2026 and flagged a sharp uptick in inflation risk after the Middle‑East war drove Brent crude above $100 a barrel and pushed European gas prices up 52%. Market participants now price roughly...
Circle CEO Sees ‘Tremendous Opportunity’ for Yuan Stablecoin Despite China Curbs
Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire told Reuters that a yuan‑backed stablecoin could be issued within three to five years, presenting a “tremendous opportunity” for China to export its currency. He contrasted this prospect with Beijing’s recent crackdown that declares offshore issuance...
Dollar Dominance Is Surviving the Iran War – Just About
The Iran‑Israel war has not eroded the U.S. dollar’s global dominance, as the greenback rose about 2% against a basket of currencies and U.S. asset markets performed relatively well. The 10‑year Treasury yield climbed 35 basis points to 4.3%, a...
Trump Wants Regime Change at the Fed
In this episode, Paul Krugman warns that former President Donald Trump is attempting to undermine the Federal Reserve’s independence by pressuring for lower interest rates and targeting Fed officials. Krugman explains why monetary policy is a technical, credibility‑driven tool that...
ECB Minutes From March Meeting Confirm Hawkish Pivot
The European Central Bank’s March minutes confirm a hawkish pivot, yet the Governing Council signals no rush to tighten policy further. Officials highlighted downside risks to growth from the Middle East conflict and upside risks to inflation, especially via stronger...
Nigerian Naira Holds at N1,344 per Dollar as FX Inflows Boost Stability
The Nigerian naira traded at roughly N1,344 per US dollar on Thursday, marking a modest appreciation after opening the session higher. Analysts credit fresh foreign currency inflows and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s backlog‑clearing measures for the steadiness, while noting...
Three Scenarios for Energy, Central Banks, Rates and FX Markets
ING outlines three energy‑price scenarios tied to the Middle East cease‑fire outlook. In a base case, Brent crude steadies at $90‑100 per barrel and the euro trades around 1.18‑1.20 by year‑end. A moderate disruption pushes Brent above $100 and lifts...
Our Latest Views on the Major Central Banks
ING’s latest outlook assesses the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ as they navigate a fresh oil price shock and lingering inflation pressures. The Fed sees inflation testing 4% but expects sub‑2% by 2027 if energy costs fall, opening space for...
Eurozone's 2.5% Inflation Becomes New Normal
An in the Eurozone 2.5% is the new 2%; it was before the war in Iran. I think this can be explained in part, by a simple macro framework via the interaction between looser fiscal and tighter monetary...
Falling Energy Prices Undermine Case for ECB Rate Hikes
Dolenc says falling energy prices challenge the case for ECB hikes https://t.co/enf8vbgYkA via @jrandow https://t.co/fkf13bigUP
FX Alert: Dollar Drifts Lower as the Reach For Risk Returns
The U.S. dollar is slipping modestly as investors gravitate toward risk assets, but the decline lacks the momentum of a sustained downtrend because the Federal Reserve has kept rates steady at 3.75%. Foreign investors continue to pour money into long‑term...
Argentina's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Runaway Money Supply Growth
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.6%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Argentina’s money supply is growing at 31.8%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de-facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = MILEI'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/JvIDAwzeSe
Dollar Halts Five-Day Slide, Eyes Recovery Test
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Snaps 5-Day Losing Streak—Recovery Test Ahead https://t.co/xOgkd7QwfX $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/lVeKouhIRr
Bullish Narrative Around India’s Economy at Odds with Struggling Rupee
The Indian rupee has risen about 1.5% since March 27, making it Asia’s top performer, but the rebound masks deeper strains from an Iran‑war‑driven energy shock that is widening the current‑account deficit and stoking inflation. The Reserve Bank of India responded...
ECB to Keep Options Open Before April Meeting, Nagel Says
ECB should keep options open ahead of April meeting, Nagel says https://t.co/Dd1fRDIi4l via @KowalczeKamil @jrandow https://t.co/5FIQHxfeCK
Master Initial Balance Trading with 77% Edge
Breakdown of How to Trade Initial Balance Like a Pro with 77% Edge 👇 https://t.co/ETP9UYc2Vw https://t.co/DcJiRfSMAs
It May Be Time for Sweden to Join the Euro
Swedish economist Lars Calmfors argues that the benefits of euro adoption now outweigh the costs. Sweden has remained outside the monetary union since a 2003 referendum rejected the euro, but recent analysis finds limited economic differences between membership and non‑membership....
USD Rebounds, Major Currencies Pivot at Opening Bell
Today's Opening Bell USD Snaps Back - Key Pivots in Play Across the Majors https://t.co/E70lhy3v5Z
Dollar Rebounds Amid Fed Concerns, Robust UK, China Growth
Greenback Recovers Despite New Threats on the Fed and Stronger UK and Chinese GDP: (A business trip will disrupt the daily commentary tomorrow and next week, but the weekly analysis will be posted here on April 18 and the May...
Dimitar Radev: Economic Prospects in an Uncertain Global Environment
Bulgarian National Bank Governor Dimitar Radev warned that the war‑driven energy shock is shifting Bulgaria’s outlook from modest growth and low inflation to a baseline of about 3 % GDP growth and 3.7 % inflation in 2026. While 2025 saw 3.2 % growth...
IMF Growth Forecasts Too Pessimistic, Revised Upward After Conflict
One year ago, the IMF put out its growth forecasts (blue) right after Liberation Day. Those forecasts were far too pessimistic and were revised up 6 months later (red). It's the same with this week's forecasts if the war -...
Rupee Surge Makes 250 Crore Worth $1.2 Billion
Good to know that INR has strengthened so much that 250 crores is approximately equal to $1.2 billion
Aussie Leads as Risk Optimism Builds, Strong Jobs Push AUD/USD Toward 0.72 Break
The Australian dollar surged toward the 0.72 resistance as global risk appetite improved, buoyed by easing US‑Iran tensions and strong domestic employment data. AUD/USD hit its highest level since late 2022, reflecting both dollar weakness and heightened confidence in the commodity‑linked...