Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
Yen emerges as world’s cheapest funding currency, fueling a $435B carry‑trade
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the cheapest source of funding globally, underpinning a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary of a sudden, aggressive tightening that could compress spreads and force borrowers to unwind yen‑denominated debt.
The Bank of Japan released a revised natural rate of interest estimate on Friday, marking a notable adjustment to its policy framework. The move is seen as a signal that the central bank may be preparing to alter its stance on future rate moves, prompting market participants to reassess yen expectations amid broader currency volatility.
The Philippine peso closed at a historic low of 60.55 per U.S. dollar, extending a three‑day slide. The decline was driven by persistent global risks, especially elevated oil prices hovering around $95 per barrel, and a strengthening U.S. dollar backed...
NEW w/ @bencasselman: Throughout a series of economic shocks that pushed up consumer prices in the past five years, Americans maintained faith that the Fed would eventually get inflation under control. The war with Iran presents another shock that is...
The Indian rupee breached 94.70 per U.S. dollar on Friday, its weakest level ever, as Brent crude surged above $107 a barrel and geopolitical risk in West Asia intensified. Foreign portfolio investors dumped roughly $9.5‑$10 bn of Indian equities, while the...
Thailand’s baht is under renewed pressure as rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar converge. Tensions in the Middle East keep crude near $100‑$120 per barrel, inflating Thailand’s energy import bill and weakening the currency. Meanwhile, the two‑year U.S....
The U.S. dollar index climbed to 99.64, its biggest one‑day gain this week, after the Federal Reserve signaled a “higher‑for‑longer” policy stance and Middle‑East cease‑fire hopes faded. Rising oil prices above $100 a barrel and heightened safe‑haven demand drove the...
Reading this, all I can think is: what does it say about BoE “independence” if even considering its letter-writing model is deemed hyper controversial in the US? Moreover, I suspect a few former UK PMs would dispute the idea that...
In this episode of NatWest’s Currency Exchange, FX strategists Brian Dangerfield and Paul Robson examine why major G10 currency markets have remained unusually calm despite the heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑related Middle East conflict. They attribute the lull to...
Macro: politicization of money raises policy risk. Key factors: Trump to sign US bills, symbolic reflation tilt. Risks: polarization, FX volatility. Trade insight: hedge USD exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
The Bank of England is deepening its repo‑led, demand‑driven liquidity framework, with market‑wide facilities now supplying roughly a quarter of sterling reserves. Short‑Term Repo borrowing averages about £100 billion ($125 bn) and Indexed Long‑Term Repo about £70 billion ($87.5 bn) each auction, while the...
Eurozone short‑term rates are climbing in lockstep with Brent oil, which has stayed above $100 per barrel, while longer‑dated rates show signs of strain. The 2‑year‑to‑5‑year segment is flattening and could invert if oil breaches $120, suggesting a potential ECB...
Ringgit seeing weakness the last few days. It’s now: • 4.00 against USD • 3.12 against SGD Since the US war began, ringgit has weakened against Yuan, Yen, GBP, EUR. Could it be investors becoming a bit concerned about rising fuel subsidy bill?
genuinely think the BoJ needs to emergency hike. don’t toy with the idea of shorting oil futures (you don’t have the juice for that). Ueda—the JGB steepening can end if you have the courage to do what’s right. https://t.co/cHO1FRRfAf
FinTech startup PipVertex has launched a new multi‑asset trading platform that consolidates currencies, stocks, commodities, precious metals and digital assets into a single, speed‑focused interface. The service is available on browsers, mobile phones and tablets, aiming to simplify market access...
The OECD warns that US inflation will surge to 4.2% this year. As I predicted, the inflation genie will not be put back in the bottle and will remain one of Trump’s Achilles’ heels.
This is what markets are facing as we open for the last trading day of the week. https://t.co/F12P7EqHe1 https://t.co/kOToKFnLTg
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9089, a key daily fixing watched across Asian FX markets. China’s managed‑floating system permits the yuan to trade within a ±2% band around this midpoint. The...
ECB’s Wunsch says rate hike likely if war isn’t over by June https://t.co/DfO5yOLNdf via @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 https://t.co/rkEFK0fHSo
Three scenarios for the Iran war and what they mean for Fed policy under new leadership. Plus eight key takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Tx6udRxjvm
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas kept its benchmark policy rate at 4.25% after an unexpected off‑cycle meeting, citing the sharp oil‑price shock from the Middle East conflict. Domestic fuel costs have surged up to 177%, prompting a national energy emergency...
The Dollar and Oil are Bid: The dollar and oil remain firm. The market has a had muted reaction to President Trump’s announcement late yesterday that it will extend its pledge not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days...
Ahead of the weekend, amid the fog of war, risk appetites are restrained. Escalation to de-escalate? Is today the day the greenback pushes above $JPY160? PBOC sets $USD fix higher on weekly basis for the 1st time in...
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran urged a substantial reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, proposing a cut of $1‑$2 trillion to restore a more neutral monetary stance. He suggested easing liquidity‑coverage‑ratio rules, destigmatizing repo and discount‑window facilities, and allowing securities to...
94.27 on the USDINR. These are going to be rough times, and it's going to take time for flows to come back in
The ECB spent two years cutting rates to revive growth. Now energy shocks are forcing them to hike into a slowdown. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/ZKgiJs3tbu
In this episode, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist Michael Gapin and macro strategist Matthew Hornbach dissect the March FOMC meeting, noting the Fed’s decision to hold rates and retain an easing bias while pushing expected rate cuts from June/September to...
Today's policy speeches from Jefferson and Barr continue to push the Fedlock hawkishness measure even higher. https://t.co/PYi7b3edxv
📊 EURCAD M30 – Trade Setup On the M30 timeframe, we have a bullish market structure in place. 📈 🪤 We also identified a Turtle Soup setup, indicating a potential liquidity trap and reversal move. ⚡ Additionally, the market is forming an AMD...
The Australian and New Zealand dollars edged toward key support zones after Brent crude plunged 6% to under $99 a barrel amid renewed Iran‑Israel hostilities. Energy‑price volatility and broader regional security worries are weighing on Asia‑Pacific currencies, setting the stage for...
The dollar is below 100 on the index, down nearly 5% over twelve months. Textbook says this boosts emerging markets. But emerging market ETFs are down sharply. The Kospi just fell 3% in a session. That correlation isn't working. Why? US Treasury...
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) tightened remittance rules, directing all International Money Transfer Operators to route diaspora inflows through designated naira settlement accounts. The move helped the naira appreciate modestly, closing at ₦1,383.88 per dollar, a 0.2% gain, while...
The United States continues to dominate key global pillars despite the waning of the so‑called “American Century.” Its dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency and U.S. equities account for about half of global market capitalisation. The country leads high‑value...
The Bank of Canada (BoC) warned that structural shifts—declining immigration, evolving trade patterns and rapid AI adoption—will reshape Canada’s economy over the next five years. Combined with a recent rise in energy prices, these forces are expected to keep inflation...
𝗪𝗮𝗿, 𝗢𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 🇿🇦 The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) just mapped out two possible futures for South Africa's economy. 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 If the conflict ends within 2 months, oil averages just under $100/barrel, and the...
Nigeria’s parallel‑market naira slipped sharply even as foreign‑exchange inflows surged 45% to $4.4 bn in February. The rally in offshore portfolio flows and a sharp rise in central‑bank dollar sales highlight a liquidity boost that is not enough to offset structural...
The United States reported a $190.7 billion current‑account deficit for the fourth quarter, a sharp reduction driven by stronger foreign investment earnings than outflows. The swing eases strain on the dollar, lifts equity sentiment and fuels debate over the durability of...
Lots of hints that Turkey has done a gold swap to raise FX to fund the central bank's intervention to defend the lira. It didn't show up in the CBRT's reserve disclosure for March 19th (reporting is lagged a week). ...
There is a CBDC inserted in the middle of a housing act and we’re also getting one in 2030Ish Maybe this is another reason why they don’t wanna give us yield on stablecoins https://t.co/tXDqJOn6hB
Costa Rica’s colon surged to 465 per U.S. dollar, its strongest level since 2005, marking a 7% gain this year. The rally was driven by robust export growth and increased foreign investment. In response, the central bank intervened, purchasing roughly...
mexico just cut rates 25bps (split 3-2 vote) some DM central banks already getting outclassed by an EM
Bank of England rate-setters doubt that the Iran war will trigger a UK price spiral https://t.co/7RIt9Lei1J via @irinaanghel12 @KowalczeKamil @tomelleryrees https://t.co/nWmHGMb2Qb
Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Olayemi Cardoso reaffirmed the regulator’s commitment to ongoing reforms, highlighting eleven straight months of disinflation and a newly liberalised foreign‑exchange market that no longer requires intermediaries. He noted that 32 banks have satisfied the latest...
Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Stalls Below 160 – Breakout or Reversal? https://t.co/GZOTQAu87d $USDJPY Weekly Chart https://t.co/wFejZPDsD5
Japan imports 94% of its crude from the Middle East. 70% moves through the Strait of Hormuz. When oil spikes, Japan sells Treasuries to defend the yen. When Japan sells Treasuries, yields spike. When yields spike, everything breaks. Watch USD/JPY. $TLT $SPY https://t.co/8Vd43Ls5lB
The Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped to near‑key technical supports after Brent crude rebounded to just under $99 per barrel amid renewed Middle‑East conflict. Higher energy costs and a shift in global risk appetite are pressuring the two Southern‑Hemisphere currencies.
Quick video update on the #GBPUSD levels British Pound Struggles as Key Resistance Caps Rally Again https://t.co/fka5fSX6Wb On YouTube: https://t.co/HiVu0iuLkg
Hope Wanes, USD Little Changed while Bonds and Stocks Weaken: The US dollar is trading in narrow trading ranges against the G10 currencies today, but the calm in the foreign exchange market belies stress in other parts of the capital...
The U.S. dollar is trading in a narrow range against G10 currencies while equities and bonds are under pressure. A potential escalation in the Middle East, highlighted by Tehran’s rejection of a U.S. cease‑fire proposal, is dampening risk appetite. Oil...
🇳🇴 Norges Bank hawkish pivot charted. The policy rate is expected to be raised "at one of the forthcoming meetings" assuming the economy "evolves broadly as currently envisaged". https://t.co/3LIbGfEvOW
