Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – April 29th, 2026

Key Takeaways

• USDJPY has risen 1.5% over past two weeks
• Elliott Wave count suggests a bullish impulse extending to 155.00
• Momentum indicators confirm upward bias despite mixed risk sentiment
• Potential resistance near 154.50 could trigger short‑term pullback
• Traders watch Fed rate outlook for decisive catalyst

Pulse Analysis

Elliott Wave analysis remains a niche yet powerful tool for forecasting currency moves, especially in a pair as liquid as USD/JPY. By breaking price action into five‑wave impulsive structures followed by corrective phases, practitioners can identify where the market is likely to extend or pause. In the current cycle, the wave count positions the yen in the third wave of a larger bullish impulse, a stage historically associated with the strongest price acceleration. This framework, combined with Fibonacci extensions, points to a potential target near 155.00, a level that would represent a significant breach of recent highs.

Recent market data corroborates the wave‑based outlook. Over the past two weeks, USD/JPY has rallied roughly 1.5%, maintaining a steady uptrend and testing key psychological thresholds. Momentum oscillators such as the RSI and MACD remain in bullish territory, while the pair’s 20‑day moving average stays below price, confirming trend strength. However, technical charts highlight a resistance cluster around 154.50, where previous pullbacks have materialized. Traders should monitor price action at this juncture; a decisive break could unlock the Elliott‑projected upside, whereas a failure may trigger a corrective wave.

Macro forces add another layer of complexity. The Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory, with expectations of further rate hikes through 2026, continues to underpin the dollar’s strength, while the Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance keeps the yen vulnerable. Global risk sentiment, reflected in equity markets and commodity prices, also sways the pair, as investors shift between safe‑haven yen and higher‑yielding dollar assets. Consequently, the convergence of Elliott Wave signals, technical momentum, and monetary policy dynamics makes the USD/JPY outlook a focal point for currency strategists and institutional investors alike.