Higher Energy Prices Due to the Middle East War Would Slow Economic Growth Globally, Particularly in Emerging Markets
The 2026 Middle East war has pushed oil to roughly $120 a barrel and doubled LNG prices, creating a one‑year shock that drags global growth lower and lifts inflation. Emerging economies feel the brunt as fertilizer costs surge, cutting agricultural output and shrinking GDP by up to 3 percent. The Middle East and North Africa region faces the deepest contraction, a 12.4 percent drop, while the United States and China see modest GDP declines of 1.2 and 1.8 percent respectively. The analysis stems from a PIIE working paper that compares war‑affected outcomes against baseline projections.
'Making in Russia for India' Eyes Fertilisers, Critical Mineral Mining JVs
India’s ambassador to Moscow unveiled a "Making in Russia for India" strategy that seeks joint‑venture projects in fertilizers, critical minerals and mining. A flagship urea plant in Russia will churn out 2 million tonnes a year, earmarked entirely for export to...
FAR Expansion, Tax Relief May Boost Foreign Bond Inflows, but Risks Remain
The Reserve Bank of India broadened the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) by adding 15‑, 30‑, and 40‑year government securities and paired the move with tax exemptions to lure foreign portfolio investors. Treasury heads warn that immediate inflows could be muted...
Oman Ports Emerge as India's Gateway to West Asia, Africa
The India‑Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement took effect on June 1, opening Oman’s ports of Sohar, Salalah and Duqm to Indian exporters and investors. Sohar, a fast‑growing deep‑sea hub, now hosts the nation’s first bulk agricultural terminal, while Salalah leverages a...
India-US Interim Trade Deal Likely by Mid-July: Piyush Goyal
India and the United States are on track to sign the first tranche of a bilateral trade agreement by mid‑July, according to Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. The interim deal would grant India preferential market access over rivals such as Vietnam...
FY26 Growth Higher than Anticipated, Shows India's Resilience: MoSPI Secretary
India’s real GDP grew 7.7% in FY 2025‑26, surpassing the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation’s Second Advance Estimate. The uptick follows a 7.1% expansion in FY 2024‑25 and reflects strong capital formation, a buoyant construction sector, and resilient private consumption, especially...
Trump’s Tariffs Are Back – and the Timing Couldn’t Be Worse for Asia
Donald Trump has revived U.S. import tariffs, imposing a minimum 10% levy on 60 countries—including China, Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan and the EU—using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The tariffs are framed as a response to forced‑labor...
RBI, Govt Unveil Measures to Attract Foreign Inflows in Bonds, Equities
The Reserve Bank of India and the government announced a package of reforms aimed at pulling foreign capital into Indian bonds and equities. Key steps include expanding the Fully Accessible Route to 15‑, 30‑ and 40‑year government securities, granting FPIs...
Capital Gains Relief for FPIs on G-Secs a 'Very Helpful Measure', But Bond Yields May Not Go Down Soon: Rama...
State Bank of India Managing Director Rama Mohan Rao Amara welcomed the government’s decision to exempt foreign portfolio investors from capital‑gains tax on Indian government securities, calling it a timely step to lure overseas capital. He said the relief could revive FPI interest...
Piyush Goyal Says India to Remain World's Fastest-Growing Economy for Next Two Decades
Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal told the Citi India Conference that India will stay the world’s fastest‑growing economy for the next two decades. He highlighted the country’s ability to turn crises into investment opportunities and cited strong interest...
India’s Plunging Rupee Puts Surprise Rate Hike Bets on the Table
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is weighing a surprise rate hike as the rupee slides to record lows against the dollar. While most economists expect a hold at the 5.25% policy rate, a minority anticipate a move to curb...
OECD Sees India Growth Slowing to 6.3% From 7.6% in FY27
The OECD projects India’s GDP growth will decelerate to 6.3% in fiscal 2027, down from 7.6% in FY26. The slowdown is driven by higher energy costs linked to the Middle‑East conflict, which will pressure investment, exports and private consumption. Inflation...
Global Trade Imbalances Have Changed Since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Now They Reflect New Risks
Global trade imbalances have shifted since the 2008 crisis, moving from debt‑driven excess to geopolitically driven disparities. The United States’ current‑account deficit has contracted to about 0.9% of global GDP, while China’s surplus has risen to 0.8%, surpassing its pre‑crisis...
Chinese Investors Fear Missing Out on SpaceX IPO After Crackdown
SpaceX is rumored to launch an IPO that could value the company at over $100 billion, sparking intense interest among global investors. Chinese venture capital firms, accustomed to backing high‑growth U.S. tech, now face tighter capital‑outflow restrictions imposed by Beijing. The...
Putin in Beijing, ‘China Shock’ in EU: 7 Global Relations Reads
A wave of geopolitical shifts is reshaping Eurasian relations. The European Commission approved a tougher trade stance toward China, while the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act will tighten investment rules. Russia’s Vladimir Putin visited Beijing days after Donald Trump’s trip, underscoring...