🎯 Today's Emerging Markets Pulse

Middle East war spikes energy prices, slashing emerging market growth
The conflict has lifted oil to about $120 a barrel and doubled LNG prices, creating a one‑year shock that could cut GDP in emerging economies by up to 3 percent. The Middle East and North Africa region faces the deepest contraction, projected at 12.4 percent, while higher fertilizer costs threaten agricultural output.
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Philippines and Vietnam: Partners for a Changing Asia
The state visit of Vietnamese President and Communist Party General Secretary Tô Lâm to the Philippines from May 31 to June 1 was far more than a ceremonial exchange marking the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Manila and Hanoi. It represented a strategic investment in the future of two Southeast Asian nations whose interests are increasingly converging amid a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. and President Tô Lâm elevated bilateral ties to an Enhanced Strategic Partnership, the first to be entered into by the Philippines with a Southeast Asian neighbor. This signals a shared determination to deepen cooperation across a broad spectrum of areas, from defense and maritime security to trade, food security, education, tourism, and digital transformation. The significance of this development cannot be overstated. The Philippines and Vietnam occupy vital positions in Southeast Asia. Both are maritime nations, dynamic economies, and active members of ASEAN. More importantly, both face common challenges arising from tensions in the South China Sea. While the two countries have overlapping maritime claims, they have consistently managed these differences through dialogue and cooperation rather than confrontation. Their shared commitment to peace, stability, freedom of navigation, and a rules-based international order provides a strong foundation for closer strategic coordination. At a time when geopolitical rivalries are intensifying across the Indo-Pacific, the strengthening of Philippine-Vietnam relations contributes not only to bilateral interests but also to regional stability. The message sent by Manila and Hanoi is clear: ASEAN nations can work together to safeguard peace while pursuing mutual prosperity. Equally important are the economic opportunities arising from the upgraded partnership. Vietnam has emerged as one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies and is increasingly becoming a manufacturing and technology hub. The Philippines, meanwhile, seeks to accelerate industrialization, attract investments, and strengthen food security. During the visit, both leaders expressed the desire to expand bilateral trade beyond the current level of over $7 billion and move toward the $10-billion target. Business leaders from both countries were encouraged to pursue new ventures in agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, energy, tourism, and digital services. Food security deserves particular attention. Vietnam has long been a reliable supplier of rice to the Philippines. As climate change, supply disruptions, and global uncertainties continue to threaten food systems, stronger agricultural cooperation can help ensure stable supplies while promoting technological exchanges that benefit farmers in both countries. The agreements signed during the visit covering defense cooperation, education, tourism, and information technology likewise create pathways for long-term collaboration. Educational exchanges can cultivate a new generation of Filipino and Vietnamese leaders familiar with each other’s cultures and aspirations. Tourism cooperation can stimulate economic activity and strengthen people-to-people ties. Digital transformation initiatives can help both countries remain competitive in an increasingly technology-driven global economy. As the Philippines and Vietnam celebrate five decades of diplomatic relations, they are not merely looking back on a history of friendship. They are laying the groundwork for a future defined by strategic cooperation, economic resilience, and regional leadership. The Golden Jubilee observance thus marks not the end of an era, but a new beginning. In strengthening their partnership, the Philippines and Vietnam demonstrate how neighboring nations can transform shared challenges into shared opportunities. This is an example worthy of emulation across ASEAN and the broader Indo-Pacific region.
Manila Bulletin – Business
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Yemen Declares Ban on Israeli Shipping in Red Sea
bne IntelliNews
'Making in Russia for India' Eyes Fertilisers, Critical Mineral Mining JVs
India's envoy to Moscow, Vinay Kumar, has proposed a 'Making in Russia for India' model. This initiative aims to boost industrial ties across sectors like fertilisers and critical minerals. Joint ventures in Russia will create a captive export market for India. The countries are also working towards a $100 billion trade target.
The Economic Times (India) – Economy
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Tweet by @Lewjackk
Respectfully, both can be true. China weaponized its RE dominance but it was in a position to do so because of the industry's growth through the 80s/90s/00s, not all of which was the product of a grand plan to build a trade war weapon. 🧵

Thread by @David_j_doherty
Economist Ken Rogoff on dollar dominance. - Yuan will benefit from Middle East war - More countries trading in Yuan (eg China pays Yuan for imports which other countries use to buy their exports) - US debt is manageable but no bipartisan effort to manage it - Potential similar setup to the 1970s - These dynamics are very slow to change