Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Five Years Later, Spotify Points to Strong Growth in Nigeria — Including a 164% YoY Listening Increase and 1.4 Billion+...
Spotify disclosed that Nigerian users logged over 1.4 billion listening hours in 2025, driving playlist creations past 25 million. The platform reports a 163% year‑over‑year increase in average listening since 2021 and a staggering 5,022% surge in Afrobeats consumption. Local artist presence grew 158% and indigenous‑language streams rose 293% YoY. To monetize growth, Spotify lifted its Individual plan price by 23% and introduced higher‑priced family options, while also planning free‑tier download limits.
Guest Contribution: “Understanding Bond-Stock Price Comovements”
The article examines how Treasury bond returns move together with U.S. stock returns, showing that comovement has shifted from positive in the 1980s to negative in the 2000s and back to positive after 2022. Using rolling 90‑day regressions on daily...
Japan’s Farm and Food Exports Hit New High As Trade Patterns Shift
Japan’s agricultural, forestry and fishery exports reached a record ¥1.7 trillion in 2025, up 12.8% year‑on‑year, marking the 13th consecutive record. Growth was driven by strong demand for scallops, green tea and sake, with the United States and China remaining the...
Lualaba Showcased Cobalt Leadership and Sustainable Vision at Mining Indaba 2026
At Mining Indaba 2026 in Cape Town, Lualaba province positioned itself as the world’s leading cobalt producer, emphasizing its pivotal role in the energy transition. Governor Fifi Masuka Saini highlighted the region’s stable, investment‑friendly governance and alignment with international mining...
Investing Strategies Aligned with the Big Cycle
Last week, I shared a chapter from my 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order that details the classic signs to watch for as the world geopolitical order breaks down in a classic progression of events that I call...
The European Central Bank’s Next President May Decide the Fate of the Digital Euro
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted the digital euro as a core part of her legacy, noting its progress from research to a live policy effort. The project is now in a "preparation phase" with technical design and pilot...
UK to Remove Turkish HDG Quota Exemption
The UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) plans to strip Turkey of its developing‑economy exemption for hot‑dip galvanised (HDG) steel, moving Turkish shipments into the capped “other countries” quota. The move follows Tata Steel’s complaint that Turkish imports surged to 58,030 t...
Mexico’s Cartel Violence Could Hit Economy and Insurance Segment: AM Best
Cartel violence erupted in Mexico after the killing of leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, halting flights and disrupting tourism in Puerto Vallarta. Tourism, which contributes about 10% of Mexico’s GDP, faces short‑term setbacks and longer‑term perception risks. AM Best issued a negative...
IMF Expects Godongwana to Maintain Budget Surplus Target of 1.5% of GDP
The IMF’s South Africa mission chief expects Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to keep the primary budget surplus at 1.5% of GDP and to embed the necessary fiscal reforms in the 2026 budget. The Fund highlighted controlling the public‑sector wage bill,...
America Needs More Than Creativity on Hong Kong – It Needs Action
The article argues that the United States must move beyond rhetoric and take concrete action against Hong Kong’s increasingly repressive regime. It highlights the political role of Hong Kong Economic and Trade Offices (HKETOs) in the U.S., which enjoy diplomatic privileges despite...
Takaichi Draws a Red Line on Nuclear Sharing Amid Japan’s Security Review
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly rejected a NATO‑style nuclear‑sharing arrangement with the United States, reaffirming Japan's Three Non‑Nuclear Principles during a House of Representatives debate. Her statement comes amid a comprehensive review of Japan's National Security Strategy, Defense Strategy,...
Korea’s Demographic Crisis Has Come for Its Military
South Korea’s shrinking birthrate—down to 0.75 children per woman—has cut the pool of eligible male conscripts, driving a 20% drop in active‑duty troops from 560,000 in 2019 to 450,000 in 2025. The Defense Ministry projects the force could shrink to...
In Guinea, the US Has a Rare Opportunity to Gain an Edge over China
Guinea’s newly elected president Mamady Doumbouya hosted a high‑profile inauguration attended by U.S. officials and a Chinese envoy, underscoring the country’s strategic importance. With roughly a quarter of global bauxite reserves and emerging lithium, uranium and iron‑ore projects, Guinea sits...
Cabinet Approves Infra Projects, Farm Benefits of ₹12,236 Crore
The Indian cabinet approved infrastructure projects worth roughly ₹12,236 crore, covering rail line expansions, a new civil enclave at Srinagar airport, and a metro extension in Gujarat. It also raised the raw jute minimum support price to ₹5,925 per quintal, a...
On Africa's Terms: Taking Control of the Resource Future
BGN Group, under CEO Rüya Bayegan, is scaling its African footprint by supplying Egypt with up to 160 LNG cargoes through 2026 and operating fuel terminals across Morocco. In July 2025 the firm launched a joint venture with the DRC’s...
The ‘Resting’ Generation and South Korea’s Youth Recession
South Korea’s headline unemployment rate hovers around 4%, but a hidden youth recession is emerging as roughly 470,000 young adults are “resting” – neither employed nor job‑searching. Hiring for entry‑level positions has fallen for three consecutive years, with large firms...
Is Your ETF Habit Hiding a Systemic Risk?
Passive and thematic ETFs are funneling large inflows into market‑cap‑weighted indices, disproportionately boosting the biggest and most volatile stocks and creating a systemic risk that may outpace liquidity. In Canada, strategist Michael Green warns that this distortion decouples prices from...
Chinese Banks Pivot From US Treasuries to Diversified Reserves
Last week, we published a report titled “How Is China Rewiring Its Trillion-Dollar Surplus?” in response to media reports that Chinese authorities have urged banks to curb their exposure to the US Treasury market. This regulatory signal is highly investment-relevant,...
Mobile Handset Is Now the Front Door to the Future of Banking in Africa
The Africa Digital Banking Experience report shows mobile handsets have become the primary gateway to banking across the continent. With mobile penetration rising and smartphones becoming affordable, banks are shifting to mobile‑first strategies and redesigning products for handset users. While...
Chinese Ports Are the Next Geoeconomic Battleground
China’s state‑owned and private firms have built a maritime logistics empire spanning 133 ports in 67 countries, turning the global ports network into a new geoeconomic battleground. The United States, European Union and Australia are mounting legal, regulatory and acquisition‑based...
Europe Is Helping Ukraine Resist a US Push for Peace at Any Price
European governments are stepping up to shield Ukraine from a U.S. push for a rapid peace settlement that would require territorial concessions. While Washington seeks a quick ceasefire, the EU has increased military aid by 67 percent in 2025 and approved...
Acceleration in India’s per Capita Income Growth Has Been Faster than in GDP Growth: Poonam Gupta
RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said India’s per‑capita income growth has outpaced overall GDP growth, driven by a sharp slowdown in population growth. From $274 in 1981, per‑capita income reached about $2,700 in 2024 and is projected to hit $4,346...
The Reconfiguration of Mexico’s Supply Chains
Mexico’s exports to the United States reached record levels last week, yet the country’s trade surplus with its northern neighbor contracted. Analysts attribute the paradox to a strategic reconfiguration of Mexican supply chains, increasingly funneling production toward the U.S. market...
Iran Defenses Armed; Panama Ports Taken Back; Urals Deep Discount | Rapid Read 23 Feb 2026
The United States stopped collecting tariffs that had been invalidated under emergency authority, while President Trump announced a sweeping 15% global tariff that exempts Canada and Mexico but hits Europe hard. Panama reclaimed two strategic canal ports after a court...
The Perils of Premature Automation
Developing nations are cautioned against rushing AI automation, as integrating advanced technologies into outdated, fragmented bureaucracies can erase middle‑skill jobs without spurring growth. The article argues that the prevailing "move fast or fall behind" mantra overlooks systemic readiness and may...
Russia Lures African Recruits as Ukraine War Reaches Fourth Year
Russia, facing mounting casualties in its fourth year of the Ukraine war, has turned to African recruits to replenish its ranks, with Ukrainian intelligence estimating more than 1,400 individuals from 36 African nations have been enlisted. Kenya reports roughly 200...
China’s New Year Tech Blitz: ByteDance’s New AI Strategy
ByteDance launched Doubao 2.0 just before the Chinese New Year, reaching roughly 155 million weekly active users and touting a pro version that rivals Western models at a tenth of the cost. Alibaba countered with a 3 billion‑yuan voucher campaign tied to its...
Housing Has a Data Problem
The article highlights a critical data gap in global housing, where fragmented tracking tools leave policymakers unable to gauge program effectiveness. United Nations estimates reveal 2.8 billion people lack adequate housing and 318 million are homeless, underscoring the scale of the crisis....
WisdomTree Launches India ETF in Europe: EPI
WisdomTree has launched the WisdomTree India Earnings UCITS ETF (EPI), an earnings‑weighted fund tracking the proprietary WisdomTree India Earnings Index with a 0.55% total expense ratio. The ETF debuted on Xetra, Borsa Italiana and SIX, and will add a London...
China’s USD Pullback Demands over $100B Monthly Liquidity
Setser: "$100b a month is a large sum, it had to go into a fairly liquid corner of the market". And of course if on top of this China really were reducing its exposure to USD assets, we would need more...
Venezuela Leads Global Inflation Surge, Followed by NK, Iran
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 635.0%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 79.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 56.3%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 49.0%/yr https://t.co/22hHl94rWL
Unicapital Trims PSEi Outlook to 6,800 Amid Corruption Scandal, Policy Risks but Sees 2026 Recovery
Unicapital Securities cut its PSEi year‑end target to 6,800, down from 7,100, after re‑rating the index at a 10.5‑times price‑to‑earnings multiple. The downgrade reflects a lingering corruption scandal that has stalled government infrastructure projects and heightened policy uncertainty, including a...
US Government Fails to Push Firms Toward Supply‑Chain Security
Great story in the New York Times highlighting the difficulties that the US government has faced in getting the world's most profitable companies to take supply chain security seriously, and reduce their exposure to a crisis in the Taiwan straights 1/...
Europe Must Block Chinese‑Made Cars From Flooding Market
Good points from Thorsten Brenner -- The "car bosses" are tempted to use their Chinese factories to supply the European market. Deindustrializing Europe isn't their concern. European policy makers need a policy framework that makes this impossible...
In Big Boost, Cabinet May Approve Critical Minerals Pacts with Germany, Canada: Report
The Union Cabinet is set to approve Joint Declarations of Intent with Germany and Canada on critical minerals. The agreements will target joint exploration, sustainable mining, supply‑chain resilience and technology transfer for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare...
Redirect Chinese Savings to Gold to Preserve USD Dominance
“The goal is to keep the USD as the world's transaction rail without agreeing to absorb unlimited foreign savings into USTs” Exactly. Separating from China & re-shoring requires redirecting Chinese surpluses into a neutral reserve asset (gold)…and that requires 5-figure...
IMF: China Too Big to Export Out Its Malaise
“I recently spoke with experts at the International Monetary Fund, who put the problem bluntly: China is simply too big to keep exporting its way out of its own internal malaise.” @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/nsBIj0UbEq
VP Duterte Impeachment Case Bound to Affect Voters in 2028, Says Luistro
House Justice Committee chair Rep. Gerville Luistro announced that impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte will commence on March 2, a process she says will influence voter sentiment ahead of the 2028 presidential election, where Duterte has already declared her...
Turkey's Core Current Account Deficit Surpasses Pre‑2018 Levels
Turkey's "core" current account deficit (blue) has widened back out to levels that exceed where it was before the 2018 "sudden stop" and the catastrophic post-COVID years. Turkey is back in the danger zone. Rebalancing can't happen with Erdogan in...
Most Hedge Funds Bet Heavily on Shorting the Dollar
Almost all Hedge Fund types are exposed to Short Dollar. Some are massively Short. *Will they all be right? https://t.co/Uwzu1CzIdx
India Overhauls GDP Data to Improve Accuracy, Official Says
India will revamp its real‑GDP calculation by adopting a double‑deflation approach that blends 500‑600 price items from the consumer‑price index and the wholesale‑price index, replacing the earlier 180‑item basket. The new methodology, slated for release on 27 February with a...
Japan's New Rare Earth Find Won't Shift Global Supply
Japan has identified a large rare earth deposit of its own, but it's not going to change global supply dynamics. Here's the situation... #rareearths #japan #geopolitics https://t.co/2WX7oeO6Jm
India Lowers Dividend Taxes, Revises France Treaty Amid US Tariffs
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: While the US builds tariff walls, India opens doors. India has just revised its tax treaty with France and lowered dividend taxes for investors. https://t.co/CWxHPKVvRY
Esperanza Securities Launches Asia S First Approved Entertainment Token Investment
Esperanza Fintech Securities secured approval from Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission to launch Asia's first regulated tokenized investment platform focused on live entertainment. The firm will issue security tokens through a managed fund, lowering entry barriers and enabling secondary‑market...
Turkey’s BIST Soars 24% Amid Inflows, Loose Policy
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's main stock index, the BIST 100, is up nearly 24% YTD, and foreign investors are piling into Turkish bonds and equities. Turkey's disinflation story is gaining credibility and capital is flowing in. BEWARE. TURKEY'S MONETARY POLICY REMAINS TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/ubNTzVl6KH
China’s Lunar New Year Spending Modestly up Amid Stimulus
SCMP: "Consumer spending during China’s Lunar New Year rose modestly this year, according to early official data, as authorities extended the holiday and stepped up stimulus measures to support domestic demand." https://t.co/d5LzFaVd4V via @scmpnews
Phuket Emerges as Real Estate Hot Spot in Thailand
Phuket is rapidly emerging as Thailand’s next real‑estate hub as developers pivot from a saturated Bangkok market. Sansiri announced a 24 billion‑baht sales target, planning about 20 new projects—including 13 luxury villas and a Bang Tao condominium—by 2028. Rival firms such as...
Universal Tariff Beats Currency Devaluation for Trade Balance
The irony is that to reduce trade imbalances, tariffs should mostly substitute for currency devaluation, in which case a single, universal tariff is likely to be far more effective than a hodgepodge of bilateral and sectoral tariffs. https://t.co/QVpoGNLwuH
Japan Conveys Concerns to US over Trade Terms in New 150-Day Tariffs
Japan’s economy minister Ryosei Akazawa asked U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to ensure Japan is not treated less favorably under the new 150‑day tariff regime that replaces the invalidated reciprocal levies. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global...
Bangladesh Seeks to Keep Least Developed Status Amid Economic Stress
Bangladesh’s new government has formally asked the United Nations to delay its graduation from least‑developed country (LDC) status. The request cites mounting macroeconomic stress, trade uncertainty and institutional weaknesses. Deferring graduation would preserve preferential trade benefits that shield Bangladeshi exports...