Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Trump’s 10% Global Tariffs Take Effect After Supreme Court Ruling; 15% Hike Under Consideration
President Donald Trump enacted a 10% global tariff on Tuesday, following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated his earlier sweeping duties. The administration is preparing a formal order to lift the levy to 15%, though a timeline remains unclear. The new rate brings the average effective US tariff to about 10.2%, down from 13.6% before the court decision. Major partners such as the EU and India have paused trade talks amid the uncertainty, while Trump signals further investigations to reinforce his trade agenda.
India’s Refund Rollback Lands Exporters with a Bigger Bill
India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade has slashed RoDTEP export rebates by 50%, cutting both rates and value caps across all eligible categories. The move raises the effective cost of exporting, especially for price‑sensitive goods such as textiles and raw...
Stripe, PayPal Ventures Bet on India’s Xflow to Fix Cross-Border B2B Payments
Xflow, a Bengaluru‑based fintech, closed a $16.6 million Series A round led by General Catalyst with participation from Stripe and PayPal Ventures, valuing the company at $85 million post‑money. The startup now has over $32 million in total funding and processes roughly $1 billion in...
Japan’s National Security Reckoning
Japan is overhauling its national security strategy as U.S. “America First” policies erode traditional defense guarantees. Rising Chinese assertiveness, the spillover of the Ukraine war, and rapid advances in drone and AI warfare have forced Tokyo to prioritize strategic autonomy....
Jemmia Diamond Hosts Vietnam UAE Trade Dialogue with Ambassador
On February 9, Jemmia Joint Stock Company welcomed UAE Ambassador Dr. Bader Almatrooshi to its Ho Chi Minh City headquarters for a Vietnam‑UAE trade dialogue. The session gathered Vietnamese firms from real estate, agriculture, robotics, renewable energy and other sectors to discuss cooperation...
India Aims to Raise $19.7 Billion From IPOs of State-Run Firms by 2030
India plans to raise 1.79 trillion rupees (about $19.7 billion) by selling stakes in state‑run firms through IPOs by the 2029/30 fiscal year. The effort is part of a broader $183.7 billion asset‑monetisation drive announced by NITI Aayog, following an earlier phase that fell...
Afghanistan Bombing: What’s Pakistan’s Strategy as India-Taliban Ties Grow?
Pakistan’s military responded to a spate of cross‑border attacks by launching airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar and Paktika provinces, claiming to hit TTP sanctuaries and killing dozens of militants. Kabul rejected the narrative, saying the strikes hit a religious school and...
China’s New Export: Aircraft Debt
China’s state‑owned COMAC is exporting its C909 and C919 aircraft alongside tailored financing, leasing and equity deals, turning planes into long‑term financial levers. The most visible case is Laos, where COMAC holds a 49% stake in Lao Airlines after a lease‑to‑equity...
Russia's Kaspersky Fights Western Sanctions
Kaspersky Lab faces a cascade of Western sanctions that have crippled its European and U.S. operations. Germany’s BSI warning has slashed German sales by roughly 80%, while the U.S. Treasury and Commerce departments have barred Kaspersky products and placed senior...
Blue Planet Expands Operations to Dubai Market
Blue Planet Environmental Solutions, a Singapore‑based leader in sustainable waste management, announced the formation of Blue Planet Environmental Services L.L.C. in Dubai. The new UAE entity will deliver integrated circular‑economy solutions—including organic waste recovery, recycling, landfill mining, and industrial services—across...
Raising Thailand’s Productivity Through Regulatory Reform
Thailand’s labour productivity has stalled, averaging just 2.1% growth from 2015 to 2023, down from 3.7% in the 1990s‑2010 period. OECD product‑market regulation (PMR) scores rank the country among the most restrictive economies, with a 2.4 rating – the fourth...
What I Told Israeli Lawmakers About Reviving Regional Integration
Five and a half years after the Abraham Accords, U.S. and Israeli officials argue that regional integration remains viable despite the Gaza war and a Saudi‑UAE rift. The article stresses that advancing phase two of Trump’s Gaza reconstruction plan—contingent on...
Apple to Shift some Mac Mini Production to Houston From Asia, WSJ Reports
Apple announced it will begin assembling a portion of its Mac Mini desktop computers at Foxconn’s new plant in north Houston later this year, while maintaining Asian production lines. The move aligns with the company’s broader $600 billion U.S. investment commitment...
Visa Expands Latin America Footprint: To Acquire Argentina’s Prisma Medios De Pago and Newpay
Visa announced the acquisition of Argentina’s Prisma Medios de Pago and the fintech platform Newpay, marking a strategic push into Latin America’s payments ecosystem. The combined deal, valued at over $200 million, will be funded largely with cash. By integrating Prisma’s...
Trump's Tariff Rate Uncertain: 10% Formal, 15% Unconfirmed
Trump's 10% global tariff was formalized in a proclamation from Friday and goes into effect at midnight tonight. He later said he would raise it to 15% but with three hours to go, is yet to do anything formal to...
China May Pause Reserve Dedollarization if US Eases Taiwan Stance
So no more dedollarization of China's formal reserves if the US softens its Taiwan policy? Tis an option that China is at least considering per Lingling Wei and the WSJ 1/ https://t.co/365Y8wHJV4
Trump’s ‘Pro-Israel’ Policies Are Israel’s Biggest Liability
Donald Trump’s tenure produced headline‑grabbing pro‑Israel actions, including the Abraham Accords, the Jerusalem embassy move, and the killing of Qasem Soleimani, which were celebrated as diplomatic victories. Yet the article argues that his maximalist, transaction‑focused style has created strategic liabilities for...
Countries Subsidize Exports, Cutting Domestic Consumption to Offset US Tariffs
1/4 As this WSJ article points out, countries are keeping their exports competitive in the face of US tariffs by increasingly subsidizing them, with the subsidies ultimately being paid for in the form of suppressed consumption. https://t.co/phOREv8G8z
China’s Top Solar Firms Slash One‑third Staff Amid Losses
1/7 Reuters: "China's biggest solar firms shed nearly one-third of their workforces last year, company filings show, as one of the industries hand-picked by Beijing to drive economic growth grapples with falling prices and steep losses." https://t.co/BDS9UWJaXO
Piyush Goyal Virtually Interacts with Canada Minister Maninder Sidhu, Discusses Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal held a virtual meeting with Canada’s International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu to revive the stalled India‑Canada Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The dialogue coincides with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s upcoming visit to India and...
Accelerating Trade Imbalances Will Deepen Global Tensions
Good PIIE paper by Tamim Bayoumi and Joseph E. Gagnon on the consequences of accelerating trade imbalances. They warn that trade tensions are likely to get worse, something I have been saying for years and continue to say. I don't...
World Pivots to India as US Tariffs Alienate Allies
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: At the margin, the world is making a Pivot away towards India. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = MAKING LOTS OF US ENEMIES. https://t.co/3H8maAoa62
Istanbul North Rail Crossing Project (INRAIL)
Turkey’s Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure has secured a US$2 billion World Bank loan, part of a US$6.75 billion financing package that includes the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, ADB, EBRD, Islamic Development Bank and OPEC Fund. The Istanbul North Rail Crossing Project...
China Buys FX as Yuan Rises to Curb Appreciation
A little more complicated -- China consistently buys more fx when the CNY is appreciating (whether for structural or cyclical reasons). Exports start converting, and controlling the pace of appreciation takes intervention. Subtle point, but clear in the data
China’s $100B/Month FX Buying Blocks Dollar Diversification
Me, in the Financial Times -- On the surge in China's intervention, and the impossibility of diversifying away from dollar assets/ Treasuries when the state banks are buying $100b a month in FX 1/ https://t.co/Pc78czuld9
Should Europe Start Talking to Russia?
Europe wrestles with whether to engage Russia as the Ukraine war stalls, recognizing that Putin’s aim of reshaping European security leaves little room for a genuine settlement while he remains in power. A cease‑fire that does not protect Ukraine’s sovereignty...
Bessent: A Trader‑politician Unlike Typical Treasury Secret
Interesting on many levels. Bessent is much more of a trader (and yet also much more political) than most Treasury secretaries ... https://t.co/7m06uOU5eQ
Export Bans that Weren't Really Bans: How Russia Kept Importing Military Goods
EU export bans targeting military‑relevant goods after Russia’s invasion were initially narrow, covering only specific product variants. Transaction‑level customs data show three evasion channels: partially sanctioned variants, transit shipments declared en route, and rerouting through third‑country hubs such as Turkey....
Kazakhstan Managing Uncertainty over Oil Exports
Kazakhstan’s oil export pathway is under heightened risk as Ukrainian drone attacks cripple the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) loading facilities in Novorossiysk, cutting December shipments by roughly 22 percent. The CPC pipeline, which moves over 80 percent of Kazakhstan’s oil,...
India’s Carbon Capture Moment Has Arrived
India’s 2026‑27 Union Budget earmarked roughly $2.4 billion (₹20,000 crore) for a national carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) programme targeting steel, cement and other heavy‑industry emitters. The funding marks a shift from research‑only projects to a full‑scale industrial strategy, driven by...
Are the US and Iran Moving Closer to War?
U.S. forces are assembling their largest deployment since the 2003 Iraq invasion as diplomatic overtures continue with Iran. Both sides have scheduled talks for Thursday, while Tehran declares openness to dialogue but also readiness for war. President Donald Trump's mixed...
Kazakh Journalists Are Being Fined for Surveying Public Opinion on the Upcoming Referendum
Kazakh authorities have fined journalists and a media outlet for conducting online polls about the March 15 constitutional referendum, citing violations of the country’s referendum‑survey law. The Prosecutor General’s Office requires pre‑approval for any poll, a rule that has blocked...
Trump’s Cuba Policy Is Backing Mexico Into a Corner
President Donald Trump issued an executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba and threatening tariffs on any nation that continues supplying oil, effectively targeting Mexico, Cuba’s primary oil source. In response, Mexico halted its daily oil shipments to Cuba,...
Chinese Stocks And The FXI After The Supreme Court Ruling On U.S. Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s tariffs, sparking a rally in Chinese equities and the iShares China Large‑Cap ETF (FXI). FXI now trades at a blended P/E of 13.27 and a 2.37% yield, well below the S&P...
With Three Contestants, the Globe’s New Great Game Is On
Analysts label today’s geopolitical rivalry a "New Great Game" pitting the United States against a China‑Russia alliance. The contest spans Central Asia, the Middle East, the Arctic and the Indo‑Pacific, driven by competition for fossil fuels, rare‑earth minerals and strategic...
Kazakhstan to Supply Fresh Uranium to India Under New Deal to Fuel Nuclear Power Plants
Kazakhstan’s state‑controlled miner Kazatomprom announced a new contract to supply fresh uranium to India, reinforcing the latter’s nuclear fuel pipeline. The deal follows earlier agreements that delivered 2,100 tonnes in 2009 and 5,000 tonnes between 2015‑19. While exact volumes were...
World Bank Plans to Pump $10bn Into Mozambique
The World Bank announced a $10 bn financing package for Mozambique, including $6 bn of mostly concessional public‑investment funding and an additional $4 bn earmarked for private‑sector projects. A $921 m grant from the International Development Association’s 21st replenishment is also part of the...
Govt Plans Study to Assess Impact of Formalisation on Workers
The Indian government has commissioned a study to evaluate how rapid formalisation and digital transformation are affecting workers, especially those in the informal sector. The finance ministry tasked the labour ministry and EPFO to conduct the research through the Pandit...
Britain’s Chagos Choice Signals Resolve to China
Britain’s decision on the Chagos Islands is more than politics. It shapes how strategic rivals — especially China — interpret UK resolve, alliances and influence. This analysis explains why this matters in the context of great-power competition and what it reveals about...
A New Index Wants to Prepare African Startups for London IPOs
In January, African investors and executives launched the Africa Tech 50 Index (AT50) at the London Stock Exchange to benchmark how prepared African startups are for public listings. The index uses a six‑pillar framework covering valuation momentum, revenue strength, liquidity,...
Central Park Towers: Tbilisi’s First Integrated Luxury Resort Set to Transform Georgia’s Tourism Market
Central Park Towers, a $500 million integrated luxury resort, is under construction on Kazbegi Avenue in Tbilisi and slated to open in 2027. The 24‑hour destination will combine roughly 1,200 hotel rooms with high‑end retail, dining, wellness, entertainment and a 4,000‑guest...
The Druzhba Pipeline: Europe’s Soviet-Era Oil Artery in the Crossfire of War and Sanctions
On 27 January 2026 a Russian Shahed drone struck Ukraine’s Brody pumping station, shutting the Druzhba pipeline’s southern branch that supplies Russian Urals crude to Hungary and Slovakia. The outage, now in its 27th day, has cut 60‑70 % of feedstock for MOL...
Cheap Chinese EVs: Attractive Until Companies Collapse
Cheap Chinese EVs are boon, until the company goes bust. "Neta Auto’s parent company filed for bankruptcy last year after failing to pay wages, stranding customers in Thailand without after-sales support. Singulato, Aiways, Byton, and Levdeo have all shut down." https://restofworld.org/2026/china-ev-exports-competition-price/
Avoid Shorting Illiquid Chinese Stocks Due to Manipulation
when you get involved in some random chinese stock you are exposing yourself to risk of coordinated manipulation. this is why for years we have cautioned our traders to not be short illiquid chinese stocks. the scale of coordination⬇️⬇️⬇️
Iran's Inflation Hits 79.1%, World’s Second‑Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 79.1%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/Z869QfIwJT
Global Imbalances Drive International Payments Problems
A bit more on section 122 -- Adam Tooze noted that the simplest read of "international payments problems" is a problem of global imbalances manifest by large surpluses and large (U.S.) deficits 1/ https://t.co/86nmn36jP7
Energy Firms Ramp up Lobbying for Venezuela Opportunities
👀 #Energy-related companies' interest in opportunities in #Venezuela is starting to show up in lobbying reports. Expect to see more of this K Street action, as we reported in this morning's @axios Future of Energy newsletter. #OOTT (1/3)
Rupee's Fall Fuels 349% Surge in Gold Imports
The WEAKENING Indian rupee is triggering a GOLD RUSH. The rupee is DOWN 5.6% against the USD since the start of last year. In response, India’s gold imports has surged 349% during the past year. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/iGjJpyGh1p
China Swapped US Treasuries for Commodities via BRI
How China largely sold out of their net UST exposure yrs ago AND cornered critical minerals without ever impacting UST or commodity markets: Lend USDs along Belt & Road (BRI), repayable in either USD, CNY, or physical commodities This amounted to swapping...
Dollar's Reserve Role Extends to Growing Quasi‑Reserves
Indeed; an important point -- tho the dollar's reserve currency role is often taken to mean its role in private payments not just in official reserves. More importantly, there is a lot quasi-reserves floating around now --...