Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
RBI Eases On-Lending, Current A/C Rules in Final ECB Framework
The Reserve Bank of India released its final external commercial borrowing (ECB) framework, removing the mandatory "current account" condition for banks to become designated authorized dealers. While the RBI clarified that ECB proceeds may be used to purchase land and other immovable assets, it rejected a request to allow on‑lending for real‑estate projects. These adjustments aim to simplify foreign‑currency borrowing while maintaining prudential limits on high‑risk sectors. The changes signal a calibrated liberalisation of India’s cross‑border financing rules.
Niger Stockpiled 1,000t of Yellowcake at Military Base: FT
Niger's military government moved roughly 1,000 tonnes of uranium concentrate, known as yellowcake, to Air Base 101 near Niamey after seizing the Orano‑run mine. The stockpile remains unsold, with potential buyers from Russia, China, the United States and the UAE...
Munich Security Conference 2026 Key Takeaways & Outlook
The 2026 Munich Security Conference highlighted a shift from cooperative interdependence to a world of managed strategic rivalry, where military posture, technology control, and capital flows are increasingly intertwined. Delegates discussed how this new security architecture reshapes alliances, supply‑chain resilience,...
Offset‑Dependent Clean‑Cooking Firm Fails, Warns Developing Nations
Clean cooking is a key climate solution. A company that raised $300 million and was reliant on carbon offset sales for its business model to work has gone bust. Lots of lessons for developing countries and offset sellers. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-16/clean-cooking-company-s-collapse-touches-world-bank-and-beyond
DII Buying Offsets FII Selling, Keeping Nifty Afloat
FII's sold -972 Cr. DII's Bought Heavily +1666 Cr. It's been more than a year and nifty is trying to survive with the help of DII's only But without FII's, our portfolio will remain down and -ve 🔻 @champ_trader
How Long Can Kyrgyzstan’s Economic Boom Keep Booming?
Kyrgyzstan’s economy surged, posting 11% GDP growth in 2025 after a 9% rise in 2024, driven by a logistics boom that rerouted Chinese goods northward following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The surge is reinforced by soaring gold exports, higher remittances...
India’s Game-Changing Digital Money Model
India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has become the world’s largest real‑time payments network, handling billions of free transactions daily. Built on a public, open‑source infrastructure managed by the National Payments Corporation of India, UPI lets banks, fintechs and merchants interoperate...
Mapfre Re to Open India Branch
Spain‑based Mapfre Re Compañía de Reaseguros SA has secured regulatory approval to open a branch in Gujarat, India. The reinsurer plans to commence operations within weeks after completing pre‑opening procedures with local authorities. This marks Mapfre Re’s first dedicated presence...
Sundaram AMC Launches Mid-Cap Fund in GIFT City
Sundaram Asset Management Company has launched the Sundaram India Mid Cap GIFT, a USD‑denominated offshore feeder fund that gives global investors direct exposure to India’s mid‑cap equities. The fund is domiciled in GIFT City’s International Financial Services Centre and invests...
Jimmy Lai’s Sentence: The High Cost of Western Appeasement
Jimmy Lai received a 20‑year prison term, the harshest under Hong Kong’s National Security Law, just days after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Beijing. The sentencing coincided with a diplomatic overture framed as a “break‑the‑ice” meeting, highlighting a disconnect between...
Indian Entrepreneur to Invest ₹214 Crore in AI-Powered Hydroponic Farming in Karnataka
Indian entrepreneur Vivek Raj is investing ₹214 crore to build an AI‑powered hydroponic farm on 16 acres in Moodbidri, Karnataka. The venture, Panama Hydro‑X, has filed four AI patents covering disease detection, smart lighting and crop monitoring after spending ₹146 crore on...
Exports Rise 0.61% to $36.56 Billion in January
India's merchandise exports rose modestly by 0.61% to $36.56 billion in January, according to Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal. Imports, however, jumped 19.2% to $71.24 billion, widening the monthly trade deficit to $34.68 billion. The fiscal‑year outlook remains positive, with total exports of goods...
Tamil Nadu’s $1-Trillion Economy Goal Could Be Delayed by a Year to 2031: Economic Survey
Tamil Nadu’s Economic Survey 2025‑26 projects its $1 trillion GDP ambition could slip from 2030 to 2031 if the rupee weakens faster than expected. The state posted a 16% nominal growth rate in 2024‑25, with manufacturing expanding 14.74% real and exports doubling...
India, UK Making Genuine Effort to See if FTA Can Be Operationalised in April: Commerce Secy
India and the United Kingdom are pushing to operationalise their Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) by April, aiming to grant duty‑free access to 99 percent of Indian exports. The pact still requires approval from the UK Parliament before it can...
IATA Expresses Concern over Suspension of Freighter Flights at Mumbai
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has voiced concern over a nine‑month suspension of dedicated freighter flights at Mumbai International Airport, slated from August 2026 to May 2027 for apron reconstruction. Mumbai handled 6.93 lakh metric tonnes of cargo between April...
US Growth Decouples From Jobs, Entering Uncharted Territory
Via the Financial Times: My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory. The decoupling of US growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years: https://www.ft.com/content/298a38bb-4cc1-44f3-bd62-6aff25d58b94 #economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #growth...
No Question of Ethanol Inclusion in India-US Deal: ISMA’s Deepak Ballani
India’s sugar and ethanol sectors remain outside the India‑US trade talks, with ISMA Director General Deepak Ballani confirming that ethanol is explicitly excluded and sugar export quotas have been modestly raised to 20 LT for 2025‑26. He warns that the limited quota‑based...
India-US Trade Deal: Indian Chief Negotiator to Visit US Next Week to Finalise Legal Framework for BTA Deal
Indian chief negotiator Darpan Jain will lead a delegation to Washington next week to finalize the legal framework of the bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the United States. The interim agreement announced on Feb 7 reduces U.S. tariffs on Indian exports...
Eaglestone Management: Experience Forged in Global Infrastructure Finance
Eaglestone Management’s leadership team combines deep project‑finance banking experience with hands‑on infrastructure execution. CEO Pedro Neto brings over 30 years and involvement in more than €50 billion of global projects across energy, transport and concessions. Managing Partner Nuno Gil adds 25...
Iran and US Joint Oil Investment??? Poland Wants Own Nukes—Rapid Read 16 Feb 2026
The episode examines a surge in sanctions enforcement, highlighted by the US boarding the sanctioned tanker Veronica III, and Iran’s surprising proposal for joint US investments in oil, mining and aircraft. It also covers Hungary’s request to use the Adriatic...
From Pilots to Platforms: Nairobi Sets Out Africa's Practical AI Playbook
The Nairobi AI Forum 2026 gathered 650 delegates to move African artificial intelligence from pilots to scalable, affordable solutions. Co‑hosted by Kenya, Italy and the UNDP, the event announced 1.5 million GPU hours for 130 innovators and a €50 million Harmonic Africa...
Higher Imports Push India’s Trade Deficit to $34.68 Billion in January
India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $34.68 billion in January 2026, driven by a sharp rise in imports to $71.24 billion, especially petroleum, gold and electronics. Export value fell to $36.56 billion, with shipments to the United States slipping month‑on‑month despite overall annual...
Idle Oil and Gas Projects Risk Losing Licenses, Bahlil Warns
Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia warned that 301 explored oil‑and‑gas areas remain idle and could have their licences revoked if operators do not commence production. He cited the long‑stalled Masela Block, managed by Japan’s Inpex, which only...
Busha Champions Stablecoins as a Catalyst for African Trade at Africa Tech Summit Nairobi
Busha, a leading African digital‑asset exchange, highlighted stablecoins as a catalyst for cross‑border trade at the Africa Tech Summit in Nairobi. COO Moyo Sodipo argued that the focus should move from speculation to infrastructure, emphasizing payroll, trade settlement and institutional...
Nearshoring and Logistics Upgrades Position the Caribbean as a New Regional Hub
The Caribbean is repositioning as a regional supply‑chain hub as nearshoring gains traction and governments fund logistics upgrades. High logistics costs—16 to 25 percent of GDP—have spurred port expansions in the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Guyana and Belize, backed by investors such as DP World...
Govt Aims to Revive Private Investment in Highway Construction
India’s government plans to award ₹1 lakh crore of highway projects to private developers by fiscal year 2027, aiming to raise private sector participation to 25 % of highway development next year from the current low single digits. The budget allocates ₹12.2 lakh crore to...
GE Aerospace Eyes Explosive Asia Pacific Aviation Growth
bbaviation7 had an exclusive interview with Nakul Gupta, Vice President Sales and General Manager for Asia Pacific at GE Aerospace, where he shares what’s driving the rapid growth of aviation across the region from his perspective. We talk about how his...
China's Surplus Doesn't Directly Boost US Treasury Holdings
Two things are simultaneously true -- a) China's surplus doesn't automatically flow into its fx reserves and then into Treasuries and Agencies b) China's large ongoing surplus (+ the increase in fx assets of the state banks) cautions against using the...
Fitch, Afreximbank, and Africa's Development Sovereignty
Afreximbank terminated its credit rating relationship with Fitch after the agency reclassified the bank as high‑risk for providing debt relief to Ghana. Fitch argued the support indicated a lack of preferred‑creditor status, a claim the bank disputes, citing treaty‑based protections...
Foreign Central Banks Sell USTs Even as Dollar Weakens
One of a number of potentially important macro divergences that occurred in 2H25 is shown below. For the prior 10+ years, foreign Central Banks sold USTs when the USD rose and bought USTs when the USD fell. In 2H25, foreign CB’s sold...
What Happened on October 29 Just Won’t Go Away, PR or Not
Tanzania’s October 29, 2025 election has been condemned by all major African observer bodies as neither free nor fair, triggering international criticism and donor scrutiny. The government has hired the US‑based Ervin Graves Strategy Group at $45,000 per month to repair its...
India's Wholesale Inflation Rises to 1.81% in January
India’s wholesale price index (WPI) accelerated to 1.81% year‑on‑year in January, up sharply from 0.53% in December. The rise was led by higher food prices, while falling fuel costs provided a modest offset. Although the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)...
India Can Lead Globally in AI: Ahead of Delhi Summit, CEA Nageswaran Explains How
Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran told the AI Impact Summit 2026 that India’s ascent to a global AI leadership position will not happen by accident. He emphasized that sustained political will, robust state capacity, and a national commitment are...
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the Middle East: A Conversation with Eva Seiwert
In this episode, host Jonathan Fulton talks with Dr. Eva Seiwert about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s expanding role in the Middle East, noting Iran’s recent full membership and the region’s growing list of dialogue partners. Seiwert explains the SCO’s dual nature—as...
When Juntas Rise, Court Poets Bloom
The column warns that West Africa’s recent military coups, initially welcomed as a break from corrupt civilian rule, are evolving into authoritarian regimes. While street protests celebrated the juntas’ promises, African intellectuals have become “court poets,” praising the new leaders...
Myanmar Junta Expels Timor-Leste’s Top Diplomat Over War Crimes Case
Myanmar's military junta expelled Timor‑Leste's top diplomat after Dili opened war‑crimes proceedings. The case, filed by the Chin Human Rights Organization, accuses senior general Min Aung Hlaing of rape, murder and attacks in Chin State. The junta called the move a breach...
Money and Me: What Singapore Investors Need to Know About Budget 2026 and Brewing Billions in China's Market
In this episode, host Michelle Martin breaks down Singapore's Budget 2026, highlighting Prime Minister Lawrence Wong's AI‑centric growth plan and its implications for local equities and AI‑infrastructure stocks. She then shifts focus to China, evaluating the prospects of EV leaders...
Demutualizing IDX to Deepen Market Trust
The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) is moving to demutualize, converting from a member‑owned body to a shareholder‑owned company. The reform separates ownership from trading rights, aiming to reduce conflicts of interest and improve governance, transparency, and market liquidity. Concurrently, the...
A Family Fights to Keep Control of 157-Year-Old Firm in Japan
Sixth‑generation brothers Hironori and Takanori Aoki are battling Aeon and activist fund Oasis for control of the 157‑year‑old drug‑store chain Kusuri no Aoki Holdings. They have called an emergency meeting to adopt a poison‑pill that would dilute any shareholder acquiring...
Sheinbaum Halts Cuba Oil to Evade Trump Tariffs
Mexico's Sheinbaum is stopping oil flow to Cuba to dodge Trump’s tariff threat It risks backlash inside Morena’s pro-Cuba wing--her own party. https://t.co/A4rwOfLqHy #Mexico #Sheinbaum #Cuba #Morena #geopolitics #oil #sanctions #trade #tariffs #latam
Blackstone Backs Neysa in up to $1.2B Financing as India Pushes to Build Domestic AI Infrastructure
Neysa, an Indian AI‑infrastructure startup, secured up to $600 million of primary equity from Blackstone, giving the private‑equity firm a majority stake, and plans an additional $600 million in debt to expand its GPU fleet. The capital will help the company grow...
Thai Prime Minister Announces Coalition Agreement With Pheu Thai Party
Thailand’s Bhumjaithai party, after winning roughly 193 of the 500 lower‑house seats in the February 8 election, announced a coalition agreement with the Pheu Thai party. The partnership, together with three smaller parties, gives Prime Minister Anutin’s bloc a clear parliamentary...
Tajikistan: Rahmon Resurfaces, Looking Relatively Fit
Tajik President Emomali Rahmon reappeared after a 17‑day disappearance, confirming he had traveled to China’s Hainan Island for medical treatment. The brief silence, during which only sparse updates appeared on his official website, fueled speculation about his health and the...
HOTEL INVESTMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA KEEPS GROWING
Caribbean and Central America are experiencing a surge in luxury hotel investment in 2026, with a strong focus on sustainability and technology. The Dominican Republic leads the market, welcoming 11.6 million visitors and achieving over 70% hotel occupancy, which has attracted...
MEGA PROJECTS AND A CLEAR STRATEGY DRIVE EGYPT'S TOURISM BOOM
Egypt’s tourism rebounded dramatically in 2025, welcoming 19 million international visitors—a 21% year‑over‑year increase—and generating $18‑$24 billion in revenue. The surge is driven by flagship investments such as the Grand Egyptian Museum, which opened in November 2025, and ambitious Red Sea coastal...
US‑China Gap Lies Beyond Financialization Share of GDP
Whatever the difference between the US and China may be and however you evaluate it, it isn’t in “financialization”, at least not as measured by the share of finance in GDP (h/t twitter account of devarbol for this graph). More...
TIC Data Misses China’s Treasury Holdings Abroad
My periodic reminder that the US TIC data doesn't measure China's holdings of US Treasuries. It only measures China's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. The real question is how many Treasuries Chinese entities hold in non US...
India Has 100M Weekly Active ChatGPT Users, Sam Altman Says
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced that India now has 100 million weekly active ChatGPT users, making it the company’s second‑largest market after the United States. The milestone was disclosed ahead of the five‑day India AI Impact Summit in New Delhi, where OpenAI...
East Asia, Africa Match West; MENA, South Asia Lag
East Asia has labour-market gender gaps comparable to those in Europe and North America. Sub-Saharan Africa is also surprisingly similar (in the formal labour market). MENA and South Asia have massive gender segregation and LatAm and Carib are surprisingly in-between....
Zambia Comprehensive Comeback Belatedly Blesses Debt Framework
The episode reviews Zambia's overdue debt restructuring progress, highlighting a post‑default €3 billion Eurobond swap that now accounts for about a quarter of its external debt and a 95% debt‑to‑GDP ratio. It notes strong market rebounds with the kwacha up 15%...