Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Salaries Delay Hit Eala Lawmakers and Staff
The East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) has halted most operations because partner states have failed to remit their annual contributions, leaving the Assembly with only 38% of its budget. Salaries for MPs and staff have been unpaid since November, and statutory obligations remain unsettled. Only Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda have paid their US$7 million contributions on time, while the DRC, South Sudan, Burundi and Somalia owe millions. The funding shortfall has crippled legislative oversight and strained relationships with regional banks.
Stockpile Buffers Risk, Not Replaces Chinese Supply
A $12B rare earth stockpile is a step in the right direction, but buying from China on the open market isn’t independence; it’s a piggy bank with a very fragile supply chain. Until we build domestic processing, this is a...
Eurasia Holds 81% of Trade‑Linked Jobs Globally
81 percent of employment worldwide that is linked to trade in goods and services is in Europe and Asia. Globalization is a eurasian story. Chartbook 433 just dropped. Check it out. https://t.co/jq1gYjLP4X https://t.co/I3iRrM8XEN
Unpacking the Latest Finance News From China: Key Trends and Market Insights
China’s latest five‑year plan emphasizes a shift from property‑driven growth to technology, targeting near‑5 % GDP expansion in 2026 and projecting tech to account for 18.3 % of output by 2026. The renminbi has appreciated past the 7.0 per dollar mark, indicating reduced central‑bank...
Consumption, Not Exports, Powers China's Growth
Why smart people say that exports “contribute” to China’s growth rather than “driving” it: almost all the time, growth in consumption is, in fact, a bigger contributor. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/NNNTMiyj6N
Fox News’ Dana Perino’s Advice for Gen Z Graduates: Stop Waiting for the Perfect Job and Just Start Working
Gen Z is confronting one of the toughest job markets in recent memory, as AI‑driven cost cuts shrink traditional entry‑level positions. Fox News host Dana Perino, drawing on a non‑linear career that spans journalism, politics and media, advises graduates to...
US Controls Slow China, Ignite Homegrown Chip Drive
NYT: "While Washington’s export controls have slowed China’s chip development, they have added fuel to Beijing’s decade-long push to make strategic technologies like semiconductors and A.I. entirely at home." https://t.co/OcHRXob06N
WTO Warns China's $1.2T Surplus Unsustainable, Urges Model Shift
1/2 AFP: "WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on Friday urged China to change its growth model, arguing that its soaring trade surplus risked sparking new trade barriers. “The $1.2 trillion trade surplus is not sustainable because the rest of the world cannot... https://t.co/fvOrE6LYBH
India's Forex Reserves Drop $6.7 Billion to $717 Billion, Gold Reserves Dip, Reveals RBI Data
India's foreign exchange reserves slipped by $6.7 billion to $717.064 billion in the week ending 6 February, after a record high of $723.774 billion the week before. The decline was driven mainly by a $14.208 billion drop in gold reserves, which fell to $123.476 billion, while...
Ukraine’s Political and Military Presence in Africa
Ukraine is rapidly expanding its political and military footprint across Africa, building on decades of UN peacekeeping deployments and a post‑Soviet non‑aligned foreign policy. After Russia’s full‑scale invasion, Kyiv announced plans for roughly twenty new embassies and a Ukraine‑Africa summit...
Trump, Netanyahu Back Plan for US Pressure on Iran to Cut Oil Sales to China, Agree to Go ‘Full Force’...
President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have agreed to intensify economic pressure on Iran by targeting its oil exports to China, which account for more than 80% of Tehran’s sales. The coordinated effort is intended to force...
China Expanding Aid for Russia’s War, Western Officials Say
China has stepped up its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, expanding exports of dual‑use components and critical minerals that fuel Russian drone production. Western officials say Beijing’s assistance is now essential for Moscow to sustain its military effort, describing...
Elbridge Colby: ‘NATO Is Actually Stronger Than Ever.’
Elbridge Colby, the U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy, told the Munich Security Conference that NATO is stronger than ever and is evolving into a "NATO 3.0" model that shifts conventional defense responsibility to Europe while the United States underwrites the...
Russia ‘Not Serious’ About Peace Deal, Lindsey Graham Says
Senator Lindsey Graham told reporters at the Munich Security Conference that Russia is not serious about a peace deal, contradicting President Donald Trump’s optimism. Graham argues Moscow believes it can win the Donbas militarily and will only negotiate after securing...
A U.S. ‘Debt Spiral’ Could Start Soon as the Interest Rate on Government Borrowing Is Poised to Exceed Economic Growth,...
The CBO projects publicly held U.S. debt will surpass 106% of GDP by 2030 and reach 120% by 2036. Average Treasury interest rates are expected to climb to 3.9% by the end of the forecast, outpacing nominal GDP growth that...
Cognitive Warfare Already Undermining Western Alliances and Institutions
Cognitive warfare isn’t coming—it’s here. Some Western political leaders are being used to weaken alliances, disrupt decision-making, and fragment institutions. Swipe to see the key predictions, and visit davidmurrin.co.uk for the full analysis. #Geopolitics #NationalSecurity #Russia #China #Strategy
Cabinet Approves India’s First Underwater Road-Rail Tunnel Project in Assam
The Indian cabinet has approved the nation’s first underwater road‑rail tunnel, to be constructed in Assam across the Brahmaputra River. The project will link Assam with Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, streamlining freight movement and lowering logistics costs. Officials say the...
Recommended Weekend Reads
This weekend’s reads dissect the shifting geopolitics of NATO under Trump’s “quiet‑quit” strategy, the erosion of U.S. reliability among European allies, and Germany’s push to become Europe’s new defense hegemon. They also examine the economic fallout of Trump’s expansive tariff...
Buy Manappuram on Pullbacks Amid RBI
Macro: PE flows target Indian NBFCs. RBI cleared Bain's up to 41.7% in Manappuram; ₹43.85bn injected. Risk: regulatory scrutiny. Trading insight: buy Manappuram on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
India Doubles Down on State-Backed Venture Capital, Approving $1.1B Fund
India has approved a $1.1 billion state‑backed venture capital fund aimed at deep‑tech and advanced manufacturing startups. The fund of funds will channel government capital through private VC firms, building on a 2016 program that invested over $2.8 billion in 1,370 startups....
Single by Choice: Valentine’s Day Is No Longer a Relationship Deadline
New data from Agile Data Solutions shows 68% of single Filipinos are single by choice, a trend the firm calls "Intentional Singlehood." Respondents cite personal, career, and financial goals as primary reasons, while Valentine’s Day elicits neutral feelings for two‑thirds...
Nifty May Plunge to 19k Amid Global Macro Risks
The Nifty Can Crash to 19000 due to Global Macros - Prepare Now - Hindi ... https://t.co/gKdPPrx6C6 via @YouTube The video discussed the current market setup, IT sector view, which sectors are the weakest. Why we got here and where...
Tsukuba Research Park Draws Attention at SEMICON Japan 2025
The Ibaraki Prefectural Government showcased Tsukuba’s Cutting‑edge Research Park at SEMICON Japan 2025, highlighting its role as a new hub for semiconductor R&D. The park hosts TSMC’s first overseas research and development facility within AIST and sits alongside 29 national...
China to Continue Dominance of Global Ammonia Supply
China is projected to supply roughly one‑third of the world’s ammonia by 2030, cementing its role as the dominant producer and consumer. Strong agricultural demand for nitrogen‑based fertilizers and a broad industrial base, from steel to plastics, underpin this growth....
Saudi Arabia Appoints New Investment Minister
Saudi Arabia has appointed Fahad Al‑Saif as the new investment minister, replacing Khalid Al‑Falih who moves to a minister‑of‑state role. Al‑Saif previously led the Investment Strategy and Economic Insights Division at the Public Investment Fund, shaping long‑term capital allocation. The...
SWPC Rebrands as Sharakat to Reinforce PPP Focus
Saudi Water Partnership Company has rebranded as Sharakat to underscore its expanding public‑private partnership (PPP) role in the kingdom’s water sector. The change aligns with Saudi Arabia’s National Privatisation Strategy, which aims to secure more than $64 bn in private‑capital water...
Cabinet Clears Rs 11,000 Crore Highway Projects in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana Under PM GatiShakti
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved highway projects worth over Rs 11,000 crore across Maharashtra, Gujarat and Telangana. Maharashtra will upgrade a 154.6‑km stretch of NH‑160A for Rs 3,320.38 crore, Gujarat will build a 107.67‑km 4‑lane segment of NH‑56 for Rs 4,583.64 crore, and Telangana...
Rubio to Europe: ‘We Care Deeply’
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a sweeping address at the Munich Security Conference, urging a renewed, values‑based transatlantic partnership. He blamed de‑industrialization, unchecked migration, and climate‑policy mandates for eroding Western sovereignty and called for a joint push to...
Dedicated Freight Corridor Won’t Divert Cargo Volumes to Competing Ports, Says APSEZ
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) says the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) will not erode cargo volumes at its flagship Mundra Port. The company cites Mundra’s deep draft, faster vessel turnaround and integrated logistics ecosystem as structural advantages...
Honda, Toyota Voice Concerns over EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan
Japanese and British automakers Honda and Toyota have warned that the European Union’s proposed “Made in Europe” plan could limit their market access. The initiative, driven by EU Executive Vice‑President Stephane Sejourne, seeks to curb cheap Chinese imports and boost...
Week Signals: The European Unicorn
This episode of Week Signals examines why Europe, often dismissed as stagnant, is actually a strong investment "unicorn" despite its self‑deprecating narrative. It contrasts the bleak rhetoric from Munich Security Conference speakers with data showing European equities outperforming US markets,...
Why Does India Need More Energy Suppliers? Union Minister Piyush Goyal Explains
Union Minister Piyush Goyal warned that India’s rapidly expanding energy demand requires a broader base of crude oil suppliers. He argued that additional sources are essential to keep import prices competitive and to shield the economy from supply shocks. The...
Cabinet Clears Rs 1 Lakh Crore for India's Big Urban Reset; Aims to Unlock Rs 4 Lakh Crore Investment
The Indian cabinet approved a Rs 1 lakh crore Urban Challenge Fund (UCF) to drive market‑led urban infrastructure over the next five years. The fund offers 25% central assistance, requiring cities to raise at least 50% of project costs from bonds, loans or...
Andhra Pradesh Budget 2026-27 Worth ₹3.32 Lakh Crore — What's in for Women, Govt Employees, Health, Agriculture
Andhra Pradesh unveiled its FY 2026‑27 budget at ₹3.32 lakh crore, marking a roughly 8% increase over the previous year. The plan earmarks substantial allocations for women‑focused initiatives, government employee welfare, health infrastructure, and agricultural support. Health spending is set to rise 15%,...
Can Prediction Markets Fix a Multi-Billion-Dollar Information Gap for African Startups?
African tech startups repeatedly waste capital because founders lack reliable market data, leading to costly pivots and failures. The continent’s ecosystem raised $4.1 billion in 2025, yet 54% of startups still collapse, reflecting a multi‑billion‑dollar information gap. Prediction markets—already familiar through...
France, Germany Launch Sh7.2 Billion Plan to Digitalise TVET Institutions
France and Germany, through the French Development Agency and Germany's KfW Development Bank, have launched a Sh7.2 billion (€46.85 million) programme to digitalise Kenya’s technical and vocational education and training (TVET) institutions. The initiative follows a recent Kenya‑EU partnership agreement and aims...
South Africa's Record Real Rates Prompt Slow, Steady Cuts
South African rates are restrictive. The real policy rate is the highest it’s been in 20 years, and they expect growth. They are suffocating the economy with high real rates. However, we can expect more rate cuts throughout the year,...
China's Foreign Exchange Reserves: Key Trends Unveiled
Deep dive into Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves in today's version of the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/Yc09wNGpPK
India Must Shift From Growth at Scale to Productivity for Viksit Bharat 2047: KPMG Report
KPMG’s new report urges India to move from a scale‑driven growth model to one focused on productivity as it targets a Viksit Bharat by 2047. It outlines ten priority areas, including deepening manufacturing, upskilling a youthful workforce, modernising MSMEs, and...
Poor Nations Double Youth Disengagement Compared to Rich Countries
How rich-country advantages compound. More than twice the share of young people in poor countries are not in employment, education or training. This and more insights in today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/pokvStfn3w
Iran's Inflation Hits 81.5%, World's Second Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 81.5%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/HcSee4i4O2
Makoko’s Five-Point Pact: Peace Today, the Implementation Test Tomorrow
After weeks of protests triggered by the Lagos State Government’s demolition of parts of Makoko’s stilt settlement, a five‑point agreement was signed to halt further construction, establish a community compensation committee, define regeneration boundaries, design a resident‑focused Water City project,...
EU Boosts Chinese Imports as Trump Tariffs Bite
During 2025, Chinese exports to the EU jumped by 6.3%. TRUMP'S TARIFFS = EU PIVOTS TOWARDS CHINA. https://t.co/tkz6F9xAsN
Modi Leveraged Trump Tariff Threat to Advance Free Trade
My take on PM Modi's clever move to reduce India's punishing tariffs and non-tariff barriers: "Modi used the tariff threat from Trump as cover to push for free trade between India and other countries." MODI = SMARTER THAN YOU THINK. https://t.co/aTUbO8em04
EU Trade Surplus Shrinks as Tariffs and China Pressure
1/5 Reuters: "The EU's trade surplus kept shrinking, data showed on Friday, as tariffs weighed on exports to the U.S. and rising Chinese imports crowded out domestic production, highlighting existential threats to the bloc's economic model." https://t.co/91sJO2nGjP
Provincial Revenues Forecast 2‑3% Growth, Lagging Economy
1/4 SCMP: "Major provinces are budgeting for 2 to 3 per cent growth this year in general public operating revenue, broadly in line with last year but below broader economic growth targets, Fitch Ratings said in a research note." https://t.co/HwyAPw042O
China Cracks Down on Hidden Corporate IOU Market
1/3 Very interesting Caixin article on attempts by Chinese regulators to get their arms around "the opaque market for corporate IOUs that has allowed big-name companies to defer payments to suppliers on a massive scale." https://t.co/FIJywKAtIX
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Demand Plummets as Gas Powers Electricity
CHART OF THE DAY: Among the world's top oil consumers, a curious trend. The 2nd largest consumption drop last year ocurred in Saudi Arabia, where demand fell ~60,000 b/d (only South Korea saw a larger drop). The reason? Gas is...
China's January Financing Jumps 2.4% Year‑over‑year, Beating Forecasts
1/5 According to Caixin, China’s aggregate financing grew slightly faster than expected in January, rising by RMB 7.22 trillion. This was 2.4% more than in January 2025 and 10.4% more than in January 2024. It is equal to 5.1% of annual...
China's Railway Investment Climbs 5.5% in January
Xinhua: "China's railway sector completed 46.3 billion yuan (about 6.67 billion U.S. dollars) in fixed-asset investment in January, up 5.5 percent year on year." https://t.co/g109GF2REm