Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia creates state‑run export hub to tackle $6.5B under‑invoicing and chase $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that all exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move aims to curb under‑invoicing, which cost $6.5B in 2016, and to generate up to $150B in annual revenue.
Barbados to Host IDB Invest Sustainability Week 2026, Focused on Mobilizing Private Investment
IDB Invest announced that Sustainability Week 2026 will be held May 26‑28 in Bridgetown, marking the first time the event takes place in the Caribbean. The three‑day forum will convene investors, companies and project sponsors to showcase investment‑ready opportunities in resilience, infrastructure, nature‑based solutions and job creation. Building on the success of the 2025 edition in Brazil, which attracted over 900 in‑person participants and 14,500 online attendees, the Barbados event underscores the region’s rising appeal for private capital. IDB Invest, managing $22 billion in assets, aims to accelerate pipelines and share risk through its Originate to Share model.
Malaysia Beats Forecast, Yet MSMEs Face Headwinds
Malaysia’s Economic Outlook & Risks Full-year performance exceeds government’s upper ceiling based on 4Q 2025 data Outperformance —► Hawkish BNM bias. Chatter of tougher operating conditions on the ground, especially for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) including F&B sector are leading many...
Pemex's Bond Return Shows State Risk, Not Confidence
Pemex is back in the bond market after six years — and demand was strong. This doesn't signal confidence in Pemex. Buyers are really underwriting the Mexican state. https://t.co/YRGXmzi4aW #Pemex #Mexico #OilMarkets #EnergySecurity #SovereignRisk #DebtMarkets #EmergingMarkets
New Rules for M&A Financing, Loans Against Shares
The Reserve Bank of India issued final guidelines allowing banks to fund acquisitions only when the acquirer already controls the target and seeks to increase its stake from 26% to 90%. Borrowers must have at least ₹500 crore net worth, three...
China’s Inbound FDI Collapses as Outbound Investment Soars
For years, the world invested in China. Since 2022, foreign direct investment inflows to China have PLUNGED, while China's foreign investment outflows have SURGED. https://t.co/TCWhEPF7bq
China EV Sales Dip, Exports Surge 70% Abroad
China EV Sales Drop for First Time Since February 2024—Chinese exports of EVs and hybrids rise 70% in 2025 as automakers shift their focus overseas @ivy_jiahuihuang https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg
Trade Pacts Will Open New Markets & Won't Hurt Farmers, Assures Chirag Paswan
India’s decade‑long reform agenda, highlighted by UPI, GST and digital payment schemes, is now bearing fruit, according to Food Processing Minister Chirag Paswan. New free‑trade agreements, especially the pending pact with the United States, are expected to unlock fresh export...
The Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway: Still Growing 8 Years Later
Eight years after its 2018 launch, the Addis Ababa‑Djibouti Railway has become a fully Ethiopian‑Djiboutian‑run, electrified corridor linking land‑locked Ethiopia to the Port of Djibouti. Management shifted from China Railway Construction Corporation to the two governments in May 2024, and Djibouti’s top...
Football Has a Real Fossil Fuel Problem – and It’s Not Sustainable
Football’s rapid expansion—more teams, matches, and tournaments—has turned the sport into a major carbon emitter, with its footprint now comparable to Austria’s national emissions. The 2026 World Cup will feature 48 teams, dramatically increasing global travel for players, fans, and...
Infosys ADRs Surge 4%, Wipro's Rise over 2% Despite Weak Wall Street Trade
Infosys ADRs rebounded on Friday, jumping 4% to a intraday high of $14.77, while Wipro ADRs rose 2.2% to $2.33 despite a weakening Nasdaq and soft domestic IT trading. The broader U.S. market slipped, with the Nasdaq down 0.9% and...
Friday Reading List - 13 February 2026
This episode surveys a whirlwind of political and security developments across Latin America, focusing on Mexico’s fraught reforms under President Sheinbaum, the looming electoral shake‑ups in the region, and the resurgence of U.S. influence via Trump‑aligned policies. It highlights Mexico’s...
Deep Dive: Managers Bullish on China but Await 'Clearer Signals' From Government
Fund managers are increasingly bullish on China as equity markets rebound, but they remain cautious until the government provides clearer policy direction. The recent rally has revived interest in a market once deemed “uninvestable,” prompting a reassessment of exposure levels....
Central Bank Rate Cuts of 100 Basis Points in Egypt and 50 BPS in Russia
The Central Bank of Egypt cut its policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it down to 19.0% as inflation eases to 11.9% after a peak of 38% in 2023. The Bank of Russia trimmed its key rate by another...
IDB Invest Finances the Development of Zona Franca La Lima in Costa Rica to Boost Investment
IDB Invest has signed a revolving financing agreement of up to $5 million with Costa Rica’s Zona Franca La Lima (ZFLL) to fund land acquisition, R&D spaces and multi‑tenant facilities. The loan, initially 18 months and renewable, aims to attract high‑value‑added sectors...
19 MENA Startups Graduate From the Second Exel by Merak Accelerator Cohort
Nineteen MENA game studios have graduated from the second cohort of Exel by Merak, an $80 million gaming accelerator launched by Merak Capital. Each studio receives $300,000 in seed funding plus mentorship and global network access. Cohort 2 has already produced $1.2 million...
Energy Power Plays Trump, Russia, China Militarize Oil
Trump talks "deals" with Iran while Russia & China talk about naval escorts of Iranian oil to Cuba, writes @TheMichaelEvery The US repeals carbon regs & hopes to restart Venezuelan oil output soon. Energy is being militarized Markets, sanctions & climate...
China’s $1.2 T Surplus Fuels Massive Market Interventions
One by product of China's exploding external surplus (goods surplus of $1.2 trillion, q4 current account surplus annualized is close to $1 trillion) is that it creates the raw material for some massive intervention numbers h/t @Mike_Weilandt for the chart https://t.co/PMvhatfgWh
Emerging Markets, Trade and Politics
In this episode, host Eimear Daly and emerging‑market specialist Aditya Sharma break down the newly signed India‑US trade agreement, highlighting how it could boost Indian equities and strengthen the rupee by improving export competitiveness and attracting foreign investment. They then...
Argentina's Survival Hinges on IMF Loans, Not Reserves
And net reserves are still negative -- Argentina survived 2025 thanks to a $14b loan from the IMF and a willingness on the part of the IMF and the US to ignored missed reserve targets. Indeed, Argentina got another $20b backstop...
China's Massive Surplus Threatens IMF Balance
China's reported current account surplus for q4 was $242b (close to $1 trillion annualized), and the 2025 surplus was $735b -- well over 3.5% of China's GDP. This has big implications for the IMF, for Secretary Bessent and and the world...
Iran’s Future Hinges on IRGC-Artesh Power-Sharing
Iran’s strategic trajectory now depends on how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular armed forces (Artesh) negotiate power. The IRGC’s performance in the 2024‑25 conflict with Israel exposed operational weaknesses, eroding its dominance. This vacuum has allowed...
Notable Absentees Among Firms Granted Venezuelan Upstream Access
Can't help but notice who ISN'T on this list of companies who just gained access to invest and operate in Venezuelan upstream. https://t.co/qrLcy4bd48
China Backs Struggling Cuba Amid Looming US Showdown
As Cuba teeters on the brink of economic disaster, China promises continued support. It looks like a SHOWDOWN between the US & China might be in the cards. https://t.co/rb7Qf0CdN2
Ruto Goes All in on Privatisation Ahead of Kenya Pipeline IPO
Kenya is launching the largest privatisation in decades with the IPO of Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC), seeking to raise 106.3 bn shillings by selling 65% of the monopoly to private investors. The offer, priced at 9 shillings per share, values KPC...
Travel Takes the Lead
Visa’s latest Spending Momentum Index shows travel as the fastest‑growing consumer category in Asia‑Pacific, expanding about 2.5 times faster than overall spend in 2025. Cross‑border card use surged as tourists adopted digital wallets, while affluent consumers generated roughly three‑quarters of...
The Pivot: Unlocking the Central African Republic’s Substantial Resource Frontier
A&S Resources announced strategic contracts to develop a 20 billion‑tonne high‑grade iron ore deposit in the Central African Republic, valued at up to $2.5 trillion in‑situ. The resource, located in the Bangui Anomaly, has been validated by an independent technical report, confirming...
Libya's Economy Lags Egypt After 2011 US Intervention
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Libya’s economy is NOWHERE CLOSE to its neighbor Egypt. Thanks to the US-led regime change operation in 2011, Libya is IN THE TANK. https://t.co/mnlulHdvko
Chinese Loan Data Out After Market - Lighter than Expected
The episode reviews China’s latest loan data released after market close, noting new yuan loans of CNY 4.71 trillion in January—significantly below the CNY 4.8 trillion forecast and far under expectations of around CNY 5 trillion. While total social financing surged to CNY...
Africa's GDP Race Tightens as Economic Interdependence Deepens
Africa’s five largest economies are now separated by razor‑thin margins, with South Africa’s $401.6 bn GDP barely outpacing Egypt’s $399.5 bn. Nigeria remains third at $334.3 bn but its ranking is highly sensitive to exchange‑rate swings. Algeria and Morocco round out the top...
CBRT Hikes 2026 Inflation Outlook, Policy Stays Too Loose
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: In the first Inflation Report of 2026, CBRT Gov. Fatih Karahan revised the end-2026 inflation forecast from 13–19% to 15–21%. Turkey's monetary policy remains TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/EC5mR04dt6
Turkey's 30% Inflation Threatens Global TV Drama Boom
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: In January, Turkey's official inflation was reported at 30.7%/yr. That's SIX TIMES HIGHER than the CBRT’s 5%/yr inflation target. Among other things, Turkey’s sky-high inflation is squeezing its famous TV dramas, which draw crowds of 1 billion+ worldwide. https://t.co/nr4JytEGeV
Asia’s Bitumen Shift: Trade Flows, Freight, and Future Demand
The episode examines how shifting trade flows, tighter vessel availability, and rising freight costs are reshaping the global bitumen market in 2026, especially for Asian importers. It highlights a surge in Chinese bitumen exports that are undercutting traditional suppliers to...
State Firms Snap up Foreclosed Homes, Easing Oversupply
1/2 Reuters: "Chinese state-owned companies are buying foreclosed property projects, in a sign that long-promised government efforts to reduce massive oversupply in the crisis-hit housing sector are finally getting traction, albeit at a slow pace." https://t.co/Nk0gtgJVgr
China's Three-Year Deflation Signals Weak Money Supply
China is in the grip of a DEFLATION. In January, its Producer Price Index (PPI) was NEGATIVE at -1.42%/yr. If that's not bad enough, China's PPI has been negative for 3 STRAIGHT YEARS. DEFLATION = AN ANEMIC MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH STORY. https://t.co/HJkJ55fGfN
2026-02-13: India-US Interim Trade Deal Sparks Opposition Protests and Political Criticism
The episode examines the India‑US interim trade agreement, which has moved from a tariff announcement to a flashpoint in India’s February 2026 budget session. Opposition parties are framing the pact as a “trap deal,” launching parliamentary attacks and street protests...
How Russia Turns Gamers Into Fighters
Russia is actively weaponising video games to recruit foreign fighters and conduct cognitive warfare. Recent Bloomberg reporting details how Russian recruiters used milsim games like Arma 3 and Discord to lure two South African men, who later fought and died in...
Trump Signals Interest in Iran Deal
In this episode, the host discusses President Trump's recent statements indicating a willingness to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran, including a timeline of about a month for talks. The conversation highlights the contrasting positions of Israeli Prime Minister...
China Mulls Blowing Aussie Property Into Space
Prominent Chinese economists Miao Yanliang and Ju Jiandong have called for easing capital controls, arguing that the current weakening U.S. dollar and a strengthening yuan present a rare opportunity to increase the currency’s value abroad. They describe 2023 and 2024...
US Aims to Process Critical Minerals in Brazil
The United States is actively negotiating with Brazil to develop processing capacity for heavy rare earths, leveraging financing from the Development Finance Corporation. Recent DFC investments have backed the Serra Verde and Aclara rare‑earth projects, which together aim to boost...
James Zimmerman on How the US and China Can Make 2026 a ‘Year of Vision’
James Zimmerman has resumed his role as chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, bringing nearly three decades of on‑the‑ground experience. He argues that the anticipated Trump‑Xi meetings in 2026 present a rare chance to pivot bilateral relations...
Maynilad, Apex Mining Added to MSCI Philippines Small Cap Index
Maynilad Water Services and Apex Mining have been added to the MSCI Philippines Small Cap Index following the February 2026 index review. Maynilad debuted on the Philippine Stock Exchange last November after raising P34.3 billion, the second‑largest IPO in PSE history....
Global Wealth Shift: US Cuts, Overseas Gains Ahead
A Massive Global Wealth Transfer Is Coming Americans will consume less, the rest of the world more. Capital is flowing overseas. This isn’t a crisis, it’s a wealth transfer — and there are winners if you know where to look. PeterSchiff #Economy...
AI, Hypersonics, and Naval Power Redefine Conflict
The Golden Dome is an offensive weapon. In this interview, David Murrin explains how AI, hypersonic weapons, and maritime power are reshaping conflict—why Taiwan matters, and why strategic compression raises the risk of escalation. Watch the full conversation : canadian_prepper #Geopolitics #AI...
Russia, China Shape Western Leaders' Strategic Decisions
This is not about rhetoric. This is about influence that changes outcomes. This piece explores how Russia and China have shaped the thinking and incentives of Western political leaders in ways that matter strategically. If you want to understand why Western policy sometimes...
Cuba's Socialist Crisis Drives 46% Inflation, Fourth Globally
#CubaWatch🇨🇺: Cuba’s socialist disaster produces an inflation rate of 46%/yr. That makes Cuba the WORLD’S FOURTH-HIGHEST INFLATOR. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Cuba. https://t.co/tNgaFALVro
Tie US Aid to Venezuela Publishing Detailed
Secretary Wright, the only way to save Venezuela's oil industry—and I say this as an entirely disinterested party—is to tie any US support to reqs that the VZ oil ministry publicly publish regular, detailed oil industry statistics Simple bulk CSV file...
Venezuela Leads This Week's Hyperinflation, Followed by Iran, North Korea
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 701.6%/yr 🇮🇷Iran — 82.9%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 74.6%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 46.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 45.6%/yr https://t.co/ghPM730D4X
Trump Tariffs Backfire as China Shifts to New Markets
US tariffs were supposed to punish China. Instead, China pivoted away from the US and made friends and commerce with non-U.S. buyers. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = BACKFIRED. https://t.co/oibXA4xbmF
Brazil's ETF Market Set for Explosive Growth
Brazil’s ETF market is poised for tremendous growth… I recently had a unique opportunity to witness the enormous potential firsthand. Here are my takeaways. https://t.co/qSrRWIqgpg https://t.co/psUyootTQQ
Global Equities Surge Far Beyond S&P 2025
Since the start of 2025: S&P 500 +19.5% European stocks +45.3% Emerging markets +50.8% Asian stocks +55.9% https://t.co/lrZrKKIC4x