Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
BofA analyst sees rupee slipping to ₹98‑99 and fiscal deficit widening to 5% in FY27
BofA Securities analyst Rahul Bajoria projects the Indian rupee will fall to around ₹98‑99 within the next year. He also expects the FY27 fiscal deficit to expand to 5% of GDP, above the government's 4.3% target, driven by higher fertilizer subsidies, an excise‑duty cut on fuel and softer tax collections, adding roughly 150 basis points to the shortfall.
Bank Negara Malaysia Holds Rate at 2.75% as Middle East Conflict Threatens Growth
Malaysia’s central bank kept the overnight policy rate at 2.75% for the fifth straight meeting, warning that the protracted Middle East war could feed higher commodity prices and inflation. The decision underscores how emerging‑market policymakers are balancing solid domestic fundamentals against external geopolitical shocks.
Tariff Outlook and S&P 800
Just returned from Paris and London-interesting meetings with the GIC hosted at the Banque de France. @SamuelRines and @JeffWeniger joined me for a recap of the key discussion in Paris, Sam’s take on tariffs and the trend for S&P 8000. Debating...
How a China-Backed Highway May Turn Landlocked Laos Into a Trade Gateway
China‑backed officials have launched a feasibility study for a 186‑207 km expressway linking Vientiane to the northeastern border with Vietnam, with a longer 440 km corridor to the Chinese border slated for completion by 2030. State‑owned Henan ZhongGong Design and Research Group...
So What’s the Strategy for China?
The Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center released a new podcast, “So What’s the Strategy?,” featuring former deputy secretary of state Kurt Campbell discussing President Joe Biden’s China strategy, the Trump administration’s approach, and Donald Trump’s upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping. Campbell, known...
Ship Traffic Around Southern Africa Resurges
Tanker traffic around the Cape of Good Hope has surged to its highest level since early 2025 as Middle‑East hostilities disrupt the Red Sea and Suez Canal corridor. After a period of uneven flows throughout 2025 and early 2026, traffic...
U.S. Sanctions Cuba's Moa Nickel Venture, Threatening China‑Linked Battery Supply
The United States, via Secretary of State Marco Rubio, sanctioned Moa Nickel SA—a joint venture between Canada’s Sherritt International and Cuba’s General Nickel Company—prompting Sherritt to halt operations and see three directors resign. The move targets a key source of...
Zimbabwe Mulls Seven‑Year Presidential Term, Raising Governance and Investment Stakes
Zimbabwe's parliament is debating Constitutional Amendment Bill No. 3, which would extend the presidential term from five to seven years and shift to a parliamentary selection model. The move has ignited a fierce debate over governance, corruption and the country’s...
India's 10‑Year Bond Slides 0.9% in Worst Monthly Drop Amid Auction Rout and War Jitters
India's benchmark 10‑year government bond posted its biggest monthly loss this year, slipping 0.92% as a tepid auction and escalating US‑Iran conflict rattled investors. The government raised 340 billion rupees ($3.6 billion) in the new issue, but yields jumped to 6.98%, underscoring...
Singapore's STI Climbs 0.3% to 4,942 Amid Regional Market Gains
Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index gained 0.3%, finishing at 4,941.96, as broader Asian markets posted solid advances. The rally was led by Hongkong Land’s 9.2% jump, while energy‑price concerns loom over consumer and telecom stocks.
Trump Says There Will Be 3-Day Ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine War
President Donald Trump announced a U.S.-mediated three‑day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, set to run from Saturday to Monday. The pause will enable the exchange of roughly 2,000 prisoners of war, a move welcomed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump...
Manufacturing Retains Growth Pace in Q4 Despite Cost Pressures: Ficci
India’s manufacturing sector kept expanding in Q4 FY 26, with 93% of surveyed firms reporting stable or higher output despite rising input costs. Domestic demand remained robust, as 89% expected orders to stay flat or grow, while capacity utilisation slipped to...
Four Corners: May 11
The Australian program Four Corners will broadcast a two‑part documentary, "Clash of the Superpowers," on May 11, offering a rare look inside private U.S.–China negotiations that sparked a decade‑long trade war. The series, directed by veteran filmmaker Norma Percy, draws on...
Skirmishes in Gulf Dent Risk Sentiment
U.S.-Iran clashes in the Gulf lifted Brent crude above $100 a barrel, souring global risk sentiment and nudging the Thai SET index to a modest 0.4% weekly gain despite volatile trading. Institutional investors sold roughly $114 million while retail and brokerages...
XEC:CA: If The War Ends, This Fund Should Continue To Rip
The iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index ETF (XEC:CA) is a CAD‑denominated, passively managed fund with roughly $3.3 billion USD in assets, offering exposure to more than 3,000 emerging‑market stocks. Analysts rate the ETF a Buy, citing a possible near‑term...
Setback Targets Global Tariff, Not US‑China Talks
Will push back a bit against Dr. Prasad's take here, and the NYT headline framing the "122" decision as a set back for the US in the negotiations with China. The actual set back is to any attempt to generate a...
Markets Mask Deep Disruptions with False Confidence
We're seeing major disruptions, yet prices and trading patterns reflect high confidence that everything is fine. That's far from the truth... #finance #globalmarkets #geopolitics https://t.co/JwZT4baTcm
Why an Australia-US Rare Earth Deal Sparked Backlash in Malaysia
A coalition of 57 Malaysian civil‑society groups has condemned a $96 million rare‑earths supply agreement between Australia’s Lynas Corporation and the U.S. Department of Defense, arguing it ties Malaysia’s processing plant to foreign military supply chains. The backlash highlights Malaysia’s precarious...
Rubio Backs NATO in Rome as US-Italy Tensions Simmer
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome that he is a "strong supporter of NATO" amid growing friction between Washington and Rome. The meeting, described as productive and frank, came as President Donald Trump...
Korea, Taiwan Post Record Surpluses Amid Currency Weakness
The surpluses of Korea and Taiwan this year will be incredible The fact that these surpluses coincide with a historically weak Korean won and continued deep weakness in the Taiwan dollar is most interesting
Asia’s Heat Waves and Oil Shock Push Inflation to Multi‑Year Peaks
Heat waves linked to El Niño and a lingering oil price shock have driven inflation to multi‑year highs across emerging Asian economies. The Philippines and Pakistan saw consumer price inflation climb above 7% and 11% respectively, intensifying pressure on central banks...
Guyana Rises to Third Place in Global Chinese Outbound Investment, Capturing 5.7% Share
Data released by the Brazil‑China Business Council shows Guyana captured 5.7% of total Chinese outbound investment in 2025, placing it third behind Brazil and the United States. The surge reflects a broader shift of Chinese capital toward Latin America and...
How China Killed Every Rare Earth Competitor
China has maintained its rare‑earth monopoly for over two decades by deliberately slashing prices whenever a Western firm attempts to develop independent processing capacity. The price‑undercutting destroys the economics of new projects, causing investors to pull back and companies to...
Mozambique Slashes Diesel Affordability with 46% Price Surge Amid Iran War Shock
On May 7, 2026, Mozambique lifted regulated diesel prices by 46%, the steepest hike in the region, as the Iran war pushes global oil costs higher. The move joins Ethiopia, Gambia and Zambia in tightening fuel subsidies, exposing Africa’s vulnerability...
How Venezuela Has – and Hasn’t – Changed Since Maduro’s Capture
Four months after U.S. forces captured President Nicolás Maduro, Vice‑President Delcy Rodríguez assumed power and began rolling back Venezuela's socialist policies under U.S. guidance. The new administration has reshuffled 13 of 32 ministries, lifted sanctions on Rodríguez, and launched a...
The Iran War Exposes Fiscal Fragility Around the World
Fitch Ratings warns that the Iran war has hit global fiscal buffers at a time when most advanced economies have little room to maneuver. Even the EU’s most disciplined nations—Ireland, Greece, Portugal, the Netherlands and Scandinavia—face pressure on debt and...
India, Canada to Hold Next Round of FTA Talks in Ottawa in July
India and Canada will reconvene in Ottawa in July 2026 for the next round of negotiations on their Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The two countries completed a second five‑day session in New Delhi, covering goods, services, IP, rules of origin...
Iran Risk Still Unpriced, Arab Spring 2.0 Delayed
Arab Spring 2.0 - part of my "Iran Risk Not Priced In" - is not removed only delayed.😢 @anasalhajji
The US and China Don’t Need Another Dialogue. They Need a Circuit Breaker.
U.S. and Chinese officials are drafting a bilateral Board of Trade ahead of President Donald Trump’s upcoming visit, aiming to delineate permissible commerce and flag national‑security red lines. Analysts argue the proposal is incomplete without a built‑in “circuit breaker” that...
US Slaps Anti-Dumping Duties on Chinese Pea Protein Exporters
Chinese ag-industrial policy story: the US is already levying anti-dumping duties on the following Chinese bio/ag tech firms that were selling underpriced pea protein to the USA. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/jYxMe3342A
New US-Iran Clashes Hit Peace Hopes, But Oil Under $100
US and Iranian forces clashed in the Gulf after Iran launched missiles, drones and small boats at three US warships, which the United States said it repelled without damage. President Trump maintained that the cease‑fire remains in effect while both...
Daybreak May 8: Trump, Lula Talk Trade as Administration Weighs Expanding Beef Imports
President Donald Trump and Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva met at the White House to discuss trade, including the possibility of expanding U.S. beef imports from Brazil to ease domestic prices. While no decision has been made, the administration is...
China's Imports Stall While Exports Surge, Creating Trade Imbalance
Chinese import growth has stopped tracking with Chinese domestic demand growth. With Chinese export volumes growing much faster than global trade, there is now enormous gap -- an imbalance -- in China's trade https://t.co/BhObwF49bG
Asean to Step up Push for South China Sea Code, Energy Security
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. urged ASEAN to finalize a South China Sea code of conduct by year‑end, aiming to institutionalize crisis‑management rules and stabilize maritime trade. He also highlighted energy security, proposing a regional fuel reserve and accelerating the...
ZDA Promotes Zambia’s Investment Potential During High-Level Germany Engagements
The Zambia Development Agency (ZDA) showcased Zambia’s mining, energy, agriculture and water‑sanitation projects to German and European investors during high‑level talks in Berlin. The delegation participated in the 2027‑2028 Zambia‑Germany development cooperation negotiations, emphasizing governance, food security and water development....
Domestic Institutional Investors Hit Record 20.9% Share of Indian Nifty-500, Driving Sector Shifts
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) lifted their stake in the Nifty-500 to an all‑time high of 20.9% in Q1 CY26, investing $27.2 bn while foreign investors withdrew $15.8 bn. The surge, led by private banks and technology, signals a decisive capital shift toward...
IMF Warns AI-Driven Cyber Attacks Could Trigger Funding Strains for Emerging-Market Banks
The International Monetary Fund warned that AI‑enhanced cyber attacks could cause extreme losses, strain funding and raise solvency concerns for banks and sovereign debt holders in emerging markets. The IMF’s blog highlighted the rapid diffusion of advanced models like Anthropic’s...
Ruble Set to Remain Strong as Export Revenues Bolster Currency, Central Bank Says
The Bank of Russia warned that a surge in export earnings will keep the ruble strong in the coming months. It linked the currency's resilience to a 5.9% inflation rate in Q1 2026 and a path toward a 4% target...
Indonesia Defends Economy as Rupiah Hits Record Low, Tightens Dollar Rules
Indonesia's central bank announced tighter controls on dollar purchases as the rupiah fell below 17,400 per USD, while Governor Perry Warjiyo insisted the economy is healthy, citing 5.61% Q1 growth. The measures aim to limit further currency weakness amid global...
McDowell Cited in Bloomberg Article on How Swap Lines Could Undermine Faith in the Dollar
The Bloomberg piece spotlights U.S. dollar swap lines, a network of credit arrangements that let foreign central banks tap emergency dollar liquidity. Daniel McDowell, an Atlantic Council expert, warns that the growing reliance on these lines could signal underlying dollar...
India's Sensex Slides 667 Points as West Asia Tensions Hit Asian Markets
India's benchmark Sensex plunged 667 points (0.86%) to 77,176 and the Nifty 50 fell 174 points (0.72%) to 24,152 as fresh US‑Iran exchanges near the Strait of Hormuz rattled sentiment. The sell‑off was amplified by aggressive foreign institutional selling, driving...
UBA, MoMo PSB and Redtech Launch Pan‑African Payment Interoperability Platform
United Bank for Africa (UBA), mobile‑money arm MoMo PSB and tech firm Redtech signed a partnership that integrates MoMo wallets into UBA’s merchant‑acquiring network via RedPay. The deal opens more than 55,000 UBA locations to “Pay with MoMo” and builds...
US Court Rules Against Trump’s 10% Global Tariff, Lending India a Negotiating Edge
The U.S. Court of International Trade struck down President Donald Trump’s 10% global tariff, ruling it unlawful under Section 122 of a 1974 trade law. The decision restores import duties to the standard most‑favored‑nation (MFN) level for all trading partners,...
Apis Partners Closes $1.23 B Fund III, Doubling Size of Prior Vehicle
Apis Partners announced the final close of its Global Growth Fund III and Growth Markets Fund III at $1.23 billion, more than double the $563 million raised for Fund II. The round closed 23% above target, driven by over 70% of existing...
Maersk’s $1.7B Vietnam Move — What’s Behind It?
Maersk announced a $1.7 billion investment to build a new container terminal in Vietnam, slated for operation around 2029. The project will provide roughly 5.7 million TEU of annual capacity and accommodate vessels up to 18,000 TEU. While the headline figures suggest another...
Is the Global Financial System Making the Hormuz Shock Worse?
The article argues that the current global financial architecture is aggravating the economic fallout from the Hormuz shock, a sudden disruption in oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Instead of providing liquidity, capital is fleeing vulnerable markets, pushing up...
India’s Bangladesh Policy Quagmire: Big Brother’s Recalcitrance and the Chinese Embrace
The BJP now controls all five Indian states that share a border with Bangladesh, giving New Delhi a political advantage but not a diplomatic guarantee. It appointed West Bengal politician Dinesh Trivedi as envoy to Dhaka, breaking the tradition of career diplomats. Ongoing...
DP World’s Thailand Play and the Eastward Extension of Emirati Port Doctrine
DP World, the Abu‑Dhabi‑based terminal operator, announced a strategic push into Thailand, marking the first major Southeast Asian foothold for its expanding port network. The move aligns with a broader Emirati doctrine to extend maritime infrastructure eastward, targeting the region’s...
The Middle East Had Everything Data Center Builders and Hyperscalers Could Wish for — Then the Iran War Happened
The Middle East has positioned itself as a data‑centre hub through AI strategies and sovereign wealth, attracting hyperscalers with cheap power and capital. However, Iran’s drone and missile attacks on AWS facilities in the UAE and Bahrain have exposed the...
Geopolitics, Inflation, and a Bond‑Market Surprise in Favor Of Junk
The VanEck Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF (HYEM) has risen 0.9% since the Middle East conflict began on Feb. 28, standing out as a rare positive performer among foreign‑currency bond funds. By contrast, U.S. and global investment‑grade bond ETFs remain...
Markets Misjudge Iran War's Real Economic Impact
Before you get too excited, NO, I'm not giving away any financial advice. However, whatever the global markets are doing right now doesn't match the physical reality of the Iran war. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/DXHqzdL8af #globalmarkets #geopolitics https://t.co/YYy1ac7Ki6