Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
The Year’s Best Tech Trade Is Hiding in Plain Sight — and No, It’s Not the Nasdaq
South Korea’s KOSPI has surged 75% in U.S.‑dollar terms through early May, dwarfing the Nasdaq’s roughly 11% gain. The rally is driven by the country’s AI‑focused chipmakers, especially Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which dominate the high‑bandwidth memory market. A swift government‑led oil‑swap program secured over 74 million barrels of crude, easing the energy shock from the Strait of Hormuz disruption. With no imminent tax hikes or rate hikes, the momentum appears set to continue.
Trump, Xi Summit Set Despite China's Hesitance on Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump is moving forward with a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14‑15, even as Chinese officials express unease about the unresolved U.S.–Iran conflict. The meeting, already postponed once due to the war,...
UK and Costa Rica Join CPTPP, Spreading Asian Innovation Globally
There was a time when the United States and the transatlantic West were supposed to be the rule-makers while a lot of analysts reduced Asia to being nothing more than rule-takers. Not that Costa Rica is a big economy, but...
India's 6.6% Growth "Very Good Record" Amid Global Turmoil: Amitabh Kant
India’s economy expanded 6.6% year‑on‑year, cementing its position as the world’s fastest‑growing large economy despite wars, broken supply chains and rising protectionism. Former NITI Aayog chief Amitabh Kant praised the pace as a “very good record” and linked it to structural...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms India at BBB, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS reaffirmed India’s long‑term sovereign rating at BBB with a stable outlook and its short‑term rating at R‑2 (high), also stable. The agency highlighted the country’s resilient macro fundamentals—$700 bn of foreign‑exchange reserves, 3.4% CPI, and a fiscal deficit narrowed...
West Africa: Nigeria's Mining Sector Attracted $2.6bn FDI in 30 Months - Shettima
Nigeria’s vice president Kashim Shettima announced that the mining sector has attracted roughly $2.6 billion in foreign direct investment over the past 30 months, a direct result of recent reforms. The Tinubu administration has de‑risked the industry and made local value‑addition a licensing...
Iran Reduces Oil Production by 400,000 Bpd, Further Cut Back Expected
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Iran has already cut oil output by about 400,000 barrels per day and may trim it further as domestic storage fills. A naval blockade has sharply reduced Iranian crude exports, leaving tankers stranded and...
Kalshi Traders See Odds Rising that a U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Will Be Reached by 2027
Prediction‑market platform Kalshi now prices a 58% probability that the United States and Iran will reach a nuclear agreement by 2027, with a 47% chance of a deal by September. The odds rose after an Axios report suggested the two...
U.S. Sanctions Iraq’s Deputy Oil Minister Over Alleged Iranian Oil Scheme
The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Iraq’s Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al‑Bahadly and several militia‑linked firms for allegedly channeling Iraqi crude into networks that blend it with Iranian oil. The move is part of the Trump...
EM Fixed Income: Parsing Peace Talks and Payrolls
In this episode of Emerging Market Fixed Income, JPMorgan strategists Aneska Christovova, Ben Ramsey, and Tanya Escobedo dissect the latest Middle East cease‑fire talks, U.S. non‑farm payroll data, and their ripple effects across EM FX, sovereign credit spreads, and local...
Sherpas Advance Toward South Col as Nepal Reverses Drone Ban Amid Geopolitical Tension
Sherpas are moving toward the South Col on Mount Everest as Nepal lifts a sudden ban on cargo drones following an avalanche that injured two climbers. The reversal comes amid a high‑profile U.S. drone demonstration, new photo‑restriction rules, and growing...
CoTec and Copper Intelligence Ink JV to Turn DRC Copper Tailings Into Marketable Concentrate
CoTec Holdings and Copper Intelligence have signed a non‑binding term sheet to create a joint venture that will process historic copper tailings in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The partnership aims to unlock the economic value of legacy deposits and...
OPay Targets $20bn Valuation in $4bn US IPO, Eclipsing Nigerian Banks
OPay announced plans for a $4 billion initial public offering on U.S. exchanges, aiming for a post‑money valuation north of $20 billion. The filing positions the African fintech above the market caps of Nigeria’s Zenith Bank and GTCO, and has sparked a...
S&P Cuts India FY27 Growth Forecast to 6.6% Over Iran War Risks
S&P Global Market Intelligence reduced India's fiscal year 2027 growth projection to 6.6%, down from 7.1%, citing the ongoing Iran war. The downgrade highlights shrinking fiscal space, rising debt and potential curbs on capital expenditure, while structural drivers such as...
Skyroot Aerospace Hits $1 B Unicorn Valuation Ahead of First Orbital Launch
Skyroot Aerospace announced a fresh financing round that pushes its valuation past $1 billion, making it India’s first space‑technology unicorn. The round, led by Singapore sovereign funds GIC and Temasek and BlackRock‑managed funds, is timed for the company’s inaugural orbital launch...
High-Risk Business Environment
Ten weeks after the Middle East conflict erupted, global markets have felt heightened volatility, while a cascade of domestic political crises in Virginia—impeachment proceedings, power struggles with the Duterte faction, and the high‑profile arrest of influencer Franco Mabanta—has deepened uncertainty....
India-EU FTA Will Be a Win-Win for Both Sides, Looking Forward to Its Ratification: Airbus India MD
Airbus India MD Jurgen Westermeier hailed the pending India‑EU free trade agreement as a win‑win, urging swift ratification. The pact, announced in January 2024, links two of the world’s largest democracies and covers a combined $24 trillion market. Current bilateral trade...
CNBC: Markets Whirlpool Says Iran War Causing ‘Recession-Level Industry Decline’
Whirlpool told CNBC that the ongoing Iran‑Israel war is driving an industry‑wide decline comparable to a recession. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have spiked oil and freight costs, while uncertainty is dampening consumer demand for large appliances. The company...
How Pakistan Became the Primary Mediator Between the US and Iran
Pakistan has emerged as the primary mediator between the United States and Iran after President Trump paused a Hormuz operation at Pakistan’s request. Islamabad leverages decades‑long diplomatic channels with both Washington and Tehran, reinforced by recent successes such as a...
Cypher Capital: Iran War Has Shown that ‘Data Centres Are Geopolitical Assets’
Cypher Capital founder Bijan Alizadeh says the Iran‑Israel conflict has highlighted data centres as geopolitical assets, even as the broader narrative driving AI‑related infrastructure investment stays unchanged. He warns that the war could reshape short‑to‑medium‑term investment decisions, especially around site...
EU Envoy Seeks Investment Liberalisation Chapter in FTA with India, Early Investment Pact Conclusion
The European Union’s ambassador to India, Herve Delphin, urged the inclusion of an investment‑liberalisation chapter in the pending EU‑India free‑trade agreement and a swift conclusion of the parallel investment‑protection pact. The deal, covering two billion people and roughly a quarter of...
The Blind Spots of African Development Finance
Africa’s development‑finance ecosystem is expanding quickly, but its analytical capacity has not kept pace, creating blind spots around contingent liabilities, transactional risk assessments, and pricing benchmarks. The article argues that without integrated macro‑financial intelligence, new instruments risk being mis‑priced and...
Hint Reveals Why Hormuz Reopening Stalls, Questions Unasked
“I’m not trying to solve a puzzle here, Dr. Kimble…” “Well, I am trying to solve a puzzle…& I just found a big piece.” This story offers a hint about what’s taking so long to re-open Hormuz, but no one seems to...
Markets Remain Calm Amid Two-Month Iran War
I had the pleasure of joining @PTertzakian & @JackieForrest on the Arc Energy Ideas podcast to talk about the shockingly calm market reaction to more than 2 months of Iran War—what I call the Sanguine Strait Stoppage. Long-time listener, first time...
Zimbabwe to Return Almost 70 European-Owned Farms
Zimbabwe’s agriculture minister announced the government will return 67 farms seized from European owners in Denmark, Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands. The farms were taken under Robert Mugabe’s land‑reform program, which devastated commercial agriculture and triggered a 2008 currency collapse....
Iran's Regime Endures Hardship; Bombings Fail to Curb Missiles
I think we all knew that the Iranian regime is capable of withstanding extreme economic hardship given that the leadership cares nothing for the population. The fact that the bombing campaigns did little to neuter Iran's ability to launch missiles regionally...
Beijing Becomes the Chessboard as Iran Pre-Empts Trump-Xi Summit
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Beijing two weeks before the scheduled Trump‑Xi summit, aiming to shape the diplomatic terrain ahead of the US‑China talks. Tehran warned that any US‑China agreement that sidelines Iranian interests—especially regarding Iranian oil flowing...
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Iran Moves to Expand Yuan-Based Trade with China
Iran is accelerating the use of China’s yuan to settle imports, following a recent diplomatic visit by its foreign minister. The yuan now accounts for over 7% of global trade and could climb to 15% by 2030, driven by Beijing’s...
The Yuan's Quiet Rise and Next Week's Summit
The offshore yuan rose nearly 5% against the dollar last year, with the onshore unit gaining about 4.25%, positioning the currency second among emerging‑market peers. The People’s Bank of China set its daily reference rate at CNY6.8487, the lowest level...
Shell CEO Warns Prolonged Recovery After Hormuz Closure
Shell CEO Wael Sawan: "The journey back [from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz" will be a long one."
India’s New Globalization Raj
India is rapidly shedding its historic economic seclusion in favor of an assertive global trade stance. Recent policy reforms—ranging from tariff reductions to streamlined foreign‑investment rules—have accelerated the country’s integration into worldwide supply chains. The shift is reflected in robust...
Citi Economist Urges CFA Franc Devaluation to Spur Growth in Central Africa
Citi’s chief Africa economist David Cowan recommends that the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) devalue its CFA franc, which is currently pegged to the euro, to stimulate growth and stem a slide in foreign reserves. He argues...
India’s Equity Markets Face $39 Bn FII Outflow as BlackRock Stays Overweight
Foreign institutional investors have withdrawn $39 bn from Indian equities since early 2025, yet BlackRock’s Ben Powell remains overweight on India, citing lower valuations. Domestic investors now own a record 20.9% of Nifty‑500 stocks, reshaping market dynamics.
India’s Derivatives Turnover Drops 26% as New Taxes Bite
India’s National Stock Exchange reported a 26% plunge in average daily notional turnover for futures and options in April, falling to 217 trillion rupees ($2.3 trillion). The drop follows the implementation of higher taxes aimed at cooling the options market, marking the...
UNCTAD Warns AI Investment Boom Could Widen Gap for Emerging Economies
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development warned that the surge in artificial‑intelligence investment is deepening capital concentration, leaving the majority of emerging economies behind. With 75% of foreign direct investment to developing nations now flowing to just ten...
The Iran War and President Trump's China Visit: A Private Discussion with Geopolitical Dispatch
Geopolitical Dispatch hosted a private roundtable on May 6, 2026, where analysts Christian Habla, Michael Feller and Damien Bruckard dissected the unfolding Iran war, the United Arab Emirates’ departure from OPEC, the lingering Ukraine conflict, Russia’s possible next moves, and President Trump’s...
Shopee Launches Three Brazil Fulfillment Hubs, Adding 700,000 Daily Order Capacity
Shopee inaugurated three cross‑docking fulfillment centers in Vitória, Curitiba and Fortaleza, giving the platform the ability to process more than 700,000 orders per day and generating roughly 900 jobs. The expansion lifts Shopee’s Brazilian footprint to 22 distribution centers, 200...
US Carmakers’ China Balance: Cooperate Abroad, Protect Turf at Home
Ford is weighing a partnership with China’s Geely to boost its European competitiveness while resisting any technology transfer that would allow Chinese automakers to enter the U.S. market. CEO Jim Farley emphasized the need for global IP sharing but framed...
India Represents One of Most Dynamic Opportunities in Global Commerce: Walmart CEO
Walmart CEO John Furner highlighted India as a fast‑growing source of global merchandise, noting the retailer has already sourced $40 billion of goods from the market. The company aims to reach $10 billion in annual Indian sourcing by 2027 while expanding its...
Debtor Countries Finally Have a Group of Their Own
On April 15, a coalition of developing nations launched the Borrowers’ Platform to coordinate debt‑management strategies and negotiate with international lenders. The initiative builds on the Sevilla Commitment, a framework adopted at the 2023 Fourth International Conference on Financing for...
ISI Launches Corporate Debt Platform Covering 2,100 Emerging Market Bond Issuers
International Securities Institute (ISI) unveiled a new corporate debt platform that aggregates information on roughly 2,100 emerging‑market bond issuers. The service delivers real‑time pricing, credit analytics, and historical issuance data in a single dashboard. ISI aims to streamline due‑diligence for...
China Vows Action After EU Cuts Funding for Green Projects Using Chinese Inverters
The European Commission announced a ban on EU funding for clean‑energy projects that use Chinese‑made solar inverters, citing security concerns. Beijing denounced the move as unfair, labeling China a "high‑risk" country without evidence, and warned of retaliatory measures. Chinese firms...
Hungary, EU Split over How Much of Its €10B Funding It Should Get
Hungary’s new prime minister, Péter Magyar, is negotiating the release of the €10.4 billion ($11.2 billion) post‑pandemic recovery fund that was frozen under Viktor Orbán. The European Commission wants Hungary to claim only the €6.5 billion ($7.0 billion) in non‑repayable grants, while Budapest pushes...
War's Impact on Growth: A Rare Data Point
There don’t seem to be that many data points showing the war affecting economic growth, but here’s one. https://t.co/UiPUCa7s5S
China, US Drive Global Debt to Record $353 Trillion as Iran War Adds Pressure: Report
Global debt surged to a record $353 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, up $4.4 trillion from the previous quarter, according to the Institute of International Finance. The increase was driven primarily by government borrowing in China and the United States,...
Chad P. Bown on What to Watch for at the Trump-Xi Summit
Chad P. Bown, senior research staff at the Peterson Institute, joined Fox’s LiveNOW to preview the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit. He highlighted that the meeting will intertwine economic issues with broader geopolitical power dynamics. Topics include the lingering U.S.–China trade dispute,...
Senator Daines Leads Long‑Overdue Senate Delegation to China
Daines Leads Delegation of U.S. Senators to China - Senator Steve Daines Long overdue....will marginally improve understanding of China within the Beltway.... https://t.co/m8sIEfO7ay
Trump’s Trade Deal Signals U.S. Relinquishes China Strategy
Trump’s Board of Trade Move Signals the U.S. has Given Up on Changing China The U.S. president is set to agree on a new framework for U.S.-China commerce at his summit with Xi Jinping, but the details could prove tricky. Keep expectations...
EU Becomes First Strategic Partner of Global Telecom Coalition, Escalating 6G Competition with China
The European Union has been named the first strategic partner of the Global Coalition on Telecommunications (GCOT), expanding a Western‑led policy framework for next‑generation networks. The move intensifies the emerging 6G rivalry with China and signals a coordinated European effort...
Asia Daily: May 7, 2026
China intensified its Middle‑East diplomacy by hosting Iran’s foreign minister, urging a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz just before the Trump‑Xi summit, while also condemning Japan’s first overseas offensive missile test. North Korea’s revised constitution stripped reunification language...