Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Rwanda Seeks to Deepen Central Corridor Links Through SGR
Rwanda and Tanzania have signed an agreement to build a $2.5 billion standard‑gauge railway linking the port of Dar es Salaam to Kigali, with Rwanda seeking roughly $1.3 billion for its 150‑km stretch. The electrified line aims to cut transport costs, speed freight, and deepen regional trade ties, especially as about 70% of Rwanda’s imports—1.6 million tonnes—currently move through Tanzanian corridors. The deal was sealed during a summit between Presidents Paul Kagame and Samia Suluhu Hassan, which also covered port logistics, energy projects and broader East African integration. Financing will blend development loans, including a $2.33 billion syndicated loan for Tanzania’s wider SGR, and private capital.
Kenya Stalls $1 Bn Microsoft AI Data Centre over Power Shortage
Kenyan President William Ruto announced the suspension of a $1 billion Microsoft‑G42 data centre, citing insufficient electricity capacity. The halt highlights the clash between soaring AI demand and limited grid resources in East Africa.
Thai Markets Weathering Middle East Turmoil
Moody’s upgraded its outlook on Thailand, placing the country with four other emerging markets that can weather global shocks. The rating highlights strong bank liquidity, robust international reserves and improved policy frameworks. Despite a ten‑week Middle East conflict, the Stock...
EU Agreement on US Trade Deal Within Reach, Says Top Lawmaker
European Parliament trade chief Bernd Lange says the EU‑U.S. trade agreement is likely to be sealed by the end of May, setting up a June plenary vote. The deal, signed in principle at President Donald Trump’s Scottish resort last July,...
Thailand Clears $29 Bn AI and Data‑Centre Projects, Led by TikTok’s $25 Bn Expansion
Thailand’s Board of Investment cleared $29 bn of AI‑related projects on Wednesday, highlighted by TikTok’s $25 bn data‑centre expansion across three provinces. The approvals mark a decisive push to position the country as a regional hub for AI infrastructure and foreign tech...
First Chinese Tanker Attacked Near Hormuz As Beijing Urges Waterway Reopened
A Chinese-owned refined‑products tanker was struck and set ablaze near Al Jeer port in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first Chinese vessel hit in the three‑month U.S.–Iran conflict. The incident came as Iran escalated attacks on commercial ships following a...
Iran War Halts Global Rate Cuts, Fuels Inflation and Slashes India's Growth
Major central banks have frozen interest‑rate cuts as the Iran war pushes oil prices higher, while the U.S. Federal Reserve warns of a lingering inflation shock. S&P Global responded by trimming India's FY27 growth outlook to 6.6%, underscoring the war’s...
ReNew Energy Cuts Solar Output as India’s Grid Wastes Up to 15% Power
ReNew Energy Global Plc said it will curb solar generation because India’s transmission network cannot absorb peak supply, wasting as much as 15% of its electricity on some days. The shortfall threatens the company’s earnings and highlights chronic grid bottlenecks...
The Myth of the Petrodollar
The piece debunks the popular “petrodollar” myth, arguing that the U.S. dollar’s global dominance rests on a broader financial architecture rather than solely on oil pricing. It traces the dollar’s hegemony to post‑World War II institutions like Bretton Woods and the...
Tata and JSW to Spend $1bn Building India’s Way Out of Chinese Battery Dependence
India’s EV sector, heavily reliant on Chinese battery cells, faces supply‑chain risk after Beijing tightened export controls on graphite, lithium‑processing equipment and cell‑making machinery. In response, Tata Group and JSW Group have pledged just under $1 billion to fund multi‑year R&D...
The AI Revolution Has a New Capital – and It’s Not in California
A wave of AI‑driven investment has turned Seoul’s Kospi into the world’s hottest market, with retail investors pouring roughly $19 billion into leveraged chip stocks. Record earnings at Samsung, TSMC and SK Hynix—whose combined AI‑related revenues surged nearly 50‑fold—have pushed Samsung past...
Designed to Hurt Asia, Trump’s Tariffs Did the Opposite
The Trump administration’s 2025‑2026 tariffs on Asian exporters were intended to shrink the U.S. trade deficit, but the 2025 data show record deficits with Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Legal setbacks forced a switch to Section 122 tariffs and a...
Iran's Response Could Trigger Biggest Risk‑on Rally This Year
🇮🇷 Iran is expected to respond to the US today on the one-page proposal to end the war. The memo would kick off a 30-day negotiation window on nuclear issues, sanctions, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is crashing and global...
Geopolitics May Drive Elevra’s Full‑Control Bid
Does geopolitics trump valuation? In a world of FORGE, US-Australia critical minerals alliances and Congressional hearings on Chinese market behavior, will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Key question is what does Elevra do? Stay in a JV with Huayou and...
RBI Likely to Hold Rates in June Amid Two Conflicting Objectives, Says HSBC Chief India Economist
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep its repo rate unchanged at the June 2026 policy meeting, opting instead to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. HSBC’s chief India economist warns that the central bank faces a...
How Indian Multinationals Are Succeeding in Emerging Markets without Major Foreign Investment
Indian multinationals are thriving in emerging markets using a “high involvement, low investment” model that relies on deep managerial engagement with local partners rather than equity ownership. A study of nine Indian firms across 62 markets shows this approach can...
AEF: Profit From The AI Spending Binge With This Emerging Market Fund
abrdn’s Emerging Markets ex‑China Fund (AEF) gives investors exposure to fast‑growing emerging markets outside China, concentrating on Taiwan, South Korea and India. The fund’s portfolio is heavily weighted toward semiconductor giants TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix, positioning it to benefit...
China’s Exporters Face Test as Yuan Hits 3-Year High Against US Dollar
The People’s Bank of China fixed the yuan’s midpoint at 6.8487 per U.S. dollar on Thursday, its strongest level since April 2023. Analysts expect the currency to continue appreciating, potentially reaching 6.65 per dollar by year‑end, which could strain China’s...
Hormuz Crisis Heats up Asia’s Arctic Scramble
The May 2024 Hormuz shutdown exposed Asia’s over‑reliance on a single oil chokepoint, prompting a rapid pivot toward Arctic routes. The arrival of a Russian‑crude tanker from Sakhalin highlighted a deliberate bypass of Hormuz, signaling that Asian capitals are already testing...
Asia Now Drives Global Economy, Outpacing West
The Shifting Balance of Power Towards Asia Asia isn't catching up to the global economy. It's running it. The $126T global economy chart just dropped — and the story isn't America's $30.6T. It's this: ↳ China: 4.4% growth — fastest of the...
Crunch Time for Japan-Russia as Energy and Security Collide
Japan received a Sakhalin‑2 oil tanker at Taiyo Oil’s Imabari refinery, underscoring its push to diversify energy supplies beyond the Persian Gulf. At the same time, Terra Drone announced a strategic investment in Ukrainian drone maker WinnyLab, expanding Japan’s defence‑technology...
Philippines Urges ASEAN to Strengthen Crisis Coordination Amid Iran War
Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro opened an ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Cebu on May 7, urging the bloc to bolster crisis coordination as the Iran‑Israel war fuels a global energy crunch. She highlighted the outsized impact of soaring...
EM Funds Shift to China, India, Taiwan Semis, Fintech
EM funds are pivoting hard: Nomura boosted China & India holdings while cutting Mexico & Brazil due to tariff jitters. Top bets? Taiwan semis and Indian fintech. Defensive growth is the play. Market's a mess, but they're playing it smart....
Bank of Thailand Revises Growth Forecast Upward
The Bank of Thailand lifted its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.1%, up from 1.5%, after the cabinet approved a 400 billion‑baht (about $10.8 billion) emergency borrowing package. The additional funds will finance a consumption‑stimulus scheme and green‑energy projects, including the “Thai...
China‑India Shifts Spark Cautious Optimism in EM
Lazard's latest EM commentary is out. Q1 2026 saw key shifts in China and India driving performance. Vibe check: cautious optimism on quality equities. Worth a read for retirement strategy insights. 📉📈 EmergingMarkets
Hong Kong Explores Financial Cooperation With Uzbekistan During Tashkent Visit
Hong Kong’s financial services chief Christopher Hui met Uzbek officials in Tashkent to launch talks on gold‑trading links, capital‑market access and a possible double‑taxation treaty. Hong Kong is rolling out a central gold‑clearing system and expanding storage capacity to over...
Thailand Unilaterally Voids Maritime Boundary Agreement With Cambodia
Thailand’s cabinet formally voided the 2001 MoU 44 that set a joint framework for offshore oil and gas exploration with Cambodia in the Gulf of Thailand. The 26,000‑square‑kilometre overlapping claims area is believed to contain significant hydrocarbon reserves, making the agreement...
War and Energy Shortages Boost China’s Influence in Asia
The war in Iran has disrupted oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Asian nations to turn to China for relief. Despite a ban on oil‑product exports, Beijing leveraged its massive crude reserves and decades of clean‑energy investment to...
Malaysian King’s Visit to Russia Expected to Smooth Path for Oil Deal
Malaysian King Sultan Ibrahim arrived in Moscow for a state visit that doubles as a diplomatic push for energy cooperation. The trip coincides with Malaysia’s urgent search for alternative crude after Iran‑linked disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have tightened...
Tokyo Leads Asia Stock Surge on Mideast Peace Hopes
Asian equities surged on Thursday, led by Japan’s Nikkei jumping 5.7% to 62,916 as investors cheered President Donald Trump’s claim that a U.S.-Iran agreement was imminent. The optimism lifted oil prices, which had fallen about 10% over the prior two...
Trump to Host Brazilian President Lula in Test of Fitful Relationship
US President Donald Trump will host Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the White House on May 7, marking the first face‑to‑face since Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Brazilian imports in July 2025. The agenda centers on security cooperation against...
China A50 Breaks Six‑Month Resistance, Posts 7% Gain Since Feb
The FTSE China A50 index breached a six‑month resistance line on May 6, 2026, delivering a 7% rise since Feb. 27. The breakout follows a tariff truce that cut U.S. duties to 20.9% and a strengthening offshore yuan, offering short‑term...
Apollo CEO Flags 30‑35% Chance of Market Correction, Cites Geopolitical and AI Risks
Apollo Global Management chief Marc Rowan told investors the odds of an exogenous shock triggering a market correction are 30‑35%. He warned that a geopolitical reset, inflationary policy moves and an AI-driven labor shift could destabilize markets, and said Apollo...
UAE Rolls Out $270M Fund and Localisation Drive to Anchor Regional Supply Chains
UAE Investment Minister Mohamed Hassan Alsuwaidi announced a AED 1 billion ($270 million) industrial resilience fund and a policy to localise over 5,000 critical products. The move, part of the Operation 300bn strategy, seeks to double manufacturing’s GDP share by leveraging regional proximity to India,...
OPEC Crude Output Hits 36‑Year Low as Iran War Slashes Exports
OPEC’s crude output fell by 420,000 barrels per day to 20.55 million bpd in April, the lowest level since 1990, after the Iran war forced deeper shut‑ins in Kuwait and Iran. The slump follows an 8.6 million‑bpd plunge in March, the steepest...
Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: US-Iran Deal Optimism (Podcast)
Asian equities reached record highs as optimism grew that the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to end their conflict. A one‑page memorandum proposes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, while...
Philippines Urges Myanmar to Grant ASEAN Special Envoy Access to Aung San Suu Kyi
The Philippines, chair of ASEAN, urged Myanmar to let the bloc’s special envoy meet Aung San Suu Kyi after her reported transfer from prison to house arrest. Manila welcomed the partial sentence reduction as a confidence‑building step but pressed for brief access to...
China’s Agency Holdings Drop, Canada and Europe Gain
A little fun with the TIC data -- China's Agency holdings are down a lot the last few years: they are now about 150b v a peak of over 250b. But there is more going on to. Canadian holdings are up...
Japan Dispatches Senior Minister with PM’s Five‑point Proposal to ADNOC
Japan sent a senior minister for talks with the CEO of ADNOC, with a personal letter from the Prime Minister containing 5 proposals. No details on the proposals.
Morning Brief Podcast: India's Biggest Trade Partner Is China, Now What?
China has displaced the United States as India’s largest trading partner, pushing total bilateral trade to $151 billion. The shift has driven India’s trade deficit with Beijing to a record $112 billion, highlighting a widening imbalance. Beijing’s new supply‑chain regulations threaten firms...
EU Trade Chief Warns Against China Deal, Eyes New Tools
1/6 SCMP: "The EU’s top trade official used her departing appearance at the EU Parliament to pour cold water on the prospect of an investment deal with China, hinting that new weapons for dealing with Chinese “macroeconomic imbalances” could be on...
US-Israeli Conflict Cuts India’s Airline Capacity 22%
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, India’s airlines are getting SQUEEZED. Air India's international capacity fell 22% in April from a year ago. AIR INDIA SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/gGIU65FEcV
China Asks Banks to Pause New Loans to US-Sanctioned Refiners
China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration has instructed the nation’s largest banks to temporarily suspend new yuan‑denominated loans to five refiners sanctioned by the United States for alleged Iranian oil ties, including major private player Hengli Petrochemical. The directive allows banks...
ADB Commits $70 B to Southeast Asia’s Energy, Digital Infrastructure
JUST IN: The Asian Development Bank is investing $70 billion in energy and digital infrastructure, highlighting Southeast Asia.
China’s New 5‑Year Plan Targets European Industry
European industry is in the crosshairs of China’s new 5-year plan https://t.co/vz2eM66YoX via @weberalexander https://t.co/tVtXFUCash
Sun Life Quarterly Profit Jumps on Asia Business Strength
Sun Life’s first‑quarter profit surged as its Asia operations delivered a 17% jump in underlying net income to C$216 million (about $160 million USD). Canadian‑based earnings also rose, with the Canada segment up 7% to C$370 million (~$274 million USD) and earnings per share...
Rupee Hits Record Low Amid US‑Israeli Iran Conflict
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, yesterday, the rupee reached a new ALL-TIME LOW to ₹95.43/USD. It all brings back one of Oscar Wilde’s most famous lines: “The chapter on the Fall of the Rupee you may omit. It...
US, China Seek AI Guardrails to Prevent Rivalry Crisis
U.S. and China Pursue Guardrails to Stop AI Rivalry From Spiraling Into Crisis "Nobody needs nuclear weapons, everyone needs AI." Admitting this is crucial, and casts proper light on export controls designed to slow China in this critical economic space.... https://t.co/HtqrbGHy8B
Trade Officials Meet in Bid to Finalise US-Thai Agreement
Thailand’s commerce minister Suphajee Suthumpun met USTR officials Jamieson Greer and Rick Switzer to push the pending Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) toward completion. Both sides described the talks as constructive and agreed to accelerate negotiations to avoid potential US...
China’s Industrial Policy: System‑wide Investment Creates Overcapacity, Disguised Subsidies
This is the best summary of how China industrial policy works. It’s system level investment, which requires ‘overcapacity’ at sector level, and can look like subsidy at firm level.