Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Taiwan Secures Major LNG Supply Backing Amid Middle‑East Tensions
Taiwan’s economy minister announced that a leading LNG‑producing nation has pledged to meet the island’s natural‑gas needs, offering extra cargoes on request. The move follows concerns that the Iran‑Russia war could disrupt Middle‑East supplies. A separate agreement with the United States will provide 1.2 million tonnes of LNG each year.
The United States and Israel’s conflict with Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, halting roughly 20% of global oil shipments and disrupting a wide array of petrochemical, industrial gas, and refined product flows. Prices for key commodities such as polypropylene, methanol, helium and urea surged, while shipping insurance premiums jumped from 0.25% to as high as 3% of vessel value. Turkey, a major importer of Gulf‑origin raw materials, now faces higher input costs that could erode its $30 billion textile export sector and widen its current‑account deficit. The episode highlights the chokepoint’s systemic risk to the world economy.
India is moving to revive its energy partnership with Russia, negotiating a direct LNG supply deal despite the risk of violating Western sanctions. The talks follow a recent surge in Russian crude purchases, which could rise to 40% of India’s...
Global risk isn’t evenly distributed. In 2026, a small group of countries - including Belarus, Lebanon, Sudan, and Venezuela - sit at the top of the global risk ranking, with premiums around 30.9%. At the other end, only 19 countries globally have risk levels below...
INDIA: stocks down another -2% overnight to -9.2% in the last month - who gets you out of these country exposures? $INDA https://t.co/pQ984qpHQx
AIA’s group chief investment officer Mark Konyn discussed how Asia’s financial ecosystem has accelerated change over his three‑decade career. He highlighted how regional crises—from the 1997 Asian financial crisis to the COVID‑19 pandemic—reshaped risk management and regulatory frameworks. Konyn emphasized China’s...
Indonesia signed the U.S. Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) on Feb. 19, 2026, obligating Jakarta to align its domestic regulations with Washington’s security agenda. The pact challenges Indonesia’s long‑standing “free and active” foreign‑policy doctrine and threatens ASEAN’s reputation as a neutral,...
Reuters: "China is considering easing shareholding restrictions for some major investors, people with knowledge of the matter said, in a move aimed at broadening capital-raising options for commercial banks reeling from an economic slowdown." https://t.co/HCdl6eFRCX
Oil prices have surged as the war in Iran pushes fuel costs higher, reigniting recession concerns across equity markets. Analysts warn that short‑term volatility may mask the benefits of disciplined, long‑term portfolio construction.
Iran has been handed a 15‑point cease‑fire proposal from the United States via Pakistan, but Tehran has ruled out any direct talks with President Donald Trump. The plan, whose details remain largely confidential, touches on sanctions relief, nuclear roll‑back and...
Investors shifted capital into Chinese sovereign and corporate bonds as safe‑haven demand surged, while U.S. Treasury yields moved sharply amid Middle‑East tensions. The reallocation highlights a growing appetite for China’s fixed‑income market despite limited disclosed inflow figures.
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9089, a key daily fixing watched across Asian FX markets. China’s managed‑floating system permits the yuan to trade within a ±2% band around this midpoint. The...
S&P Global has raised its forecast for India's fiscal year 2027 GDP growth to 7.1%, up from its prior estimate. The upgrade reflects a rebound in private investment, resilient consumer spending and export performance, though the agency cautions that volatile...
four weeks in, iran continues to export oil through the strait of hormuz. 1.5 million barrels a day, at significantly higher prices than before the war.
Progress on Iraq’s Akkas gas field development has stalled as security concerns tied to the US‑Israel war with Iran forced the evacuation of SLB’s foreign staff. The U.S.‑based contractor was hired in July 2025 to lift output to an initial...
The Strait of Hormuz shutdown threatens Japan’s aluminum supply chain, as the country imports roughly 20% of its metal from the Middle East. The closure disrupts shipments of primary ingots that feed industries ranging from beverage cans to bullet‑train components....
China has accelerated a multi‑year undersea mapping campaign, deploying 42 research vessels and hundreds of sensors across the Pacific, Indian and Arctic oceans. Experts say the data harvest is poised to become a lucrative commodity for the country's defense industry,...
The Australian and New Zealand dollars edged toward key support zones after Brent crude plunged 6% to under $99 a barrel amid renewed Iran‑Israel hostilities. Energy‑price volatility and broader regional security worries are weighing on Asia‑Pacific currencies, setting the stage for...
China is on track to become the world’s largest economy by 2035, driven by rapid tech expansion and a 7% boost to its 2026 defence budget, while household consumption remains sluggish. The dual dynamic shapes global markets and raises questions...
Asian equity markets tumbled Thursday as Brent crude hovered around $100 a barrel and Tehran rejected a U.S. cease‑fire proposal. South Korea’s KOSPI slumped more than 3%, while Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also posted declines, underscoring the...
The New York Times uncovered that Binance’s vendor Blessed Trust moved roughly $1.2 billion through the exchange, ultimately reaching entities tied to Iran. Internal compliance investigators later identified an additional $1.7 billion in sanction‑evading transfers, but Binance only severed ties with Blessed Trust in...
Latin America and the Caribbean host 533 data centers, but five countries—Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Argentina, and Colombia—account for roughly 80% of the total. Brazil leads with 204 facilities and expects $37 billion from TikTok’s upcoming Pecém hub, while Chile and Mexico...
𝗪𝗮𝗿, 𝗢𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 🇿🇦 The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) just mapped out two possible futures for South Africa's economy. 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 If the conflict ends within 2 months, oil averages just under $100/barrel, and the...
Private equity fundraising in the Middle East is entering a boom, with capital commitments reaching multi‑billion‑dollar levels. Sovereign wealth funds and regional investors are increasingly favoring general partners who demonstrate deep, long‑term commitment to the market. The region’s regulatory reforms...
The United Arab Emirates is fast‑tracking a new trade corridor that connects its eastern Khorfakkan port in Sharjah to Saudi Arabia’s Dammam, allowing cargo to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The corridor combines maritime access via the Gulf of Oman...
Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil. The disruption has sent fuel costs soaring across Africa, prompting...
Nigeria’s parallel‑market naira slipped sharply even as foreign‑exchange inflows surged 45% to $4.4 bn in February. The rally in offshore portfolio flows and a sharp rise in central‑bank dollar sales highlight a liquidity boost that is not enough to offset structural...
Hungary announced it will cease gas deliveries to Ukraine, intensifying a regional energy standoff. The move threatens Ukraine's power supply as the country awaits a €90 billion EU loan that Hungary is delaying, while broader sanctions and oil market shifts add...
Rosatom and Brazil's private holding NBEPar have created a joint venture, Nadina Minerals, to extract and process critical minerals in Brazil. The JV will focus on uranium and other high‑technology metals, targeting deposits in Paraná's Figueira region and Bahia's Caculé....
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced a five‑day emergency waiver permitting the sale of E15 gasoline across the United States. The move targets gasoline that has risen to almost $4 per gallon as the Iran war tightens oil supplies, and it...
The Philippines is entering a belt‑tightening phase as a four‑week‑old Middle East conflict drives global oil prices higher, eroding the peso and inflating consumer costs. A temporary suspension of petroleum excise taxes will cut government revenue by roughly $2.5 billion, potentially...
Venture capital activity in the Philippines surged in 2025, with private‑capital funding rising about 34% year‑on‑year despite a regional downturn. Foxmont Capital Partners alone raised $1.5 billion, up from $960 million in 2023, and e‑commerce now accounts for 67% of the country’s...
EU foreign minister Kaja Kallas accused Russia of supplying Iran with intelligence that enables Tehran to target U.S. military assets in the Middle East. She said Russia also provides drones, facilitating attacks on neighboring states and American bases. The allegation...
The United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, prompting a hard‑power display that many Latin American analysts view as a game changer for regional geopolitics. The move reinforces U.S. coercive dominance while exposing China’s limited military reach,...
The first‑quarter 2026 Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows that exploration and production (E&P) companies are flagging the Iran‑Israel war as a major source of volatility. While a few firms note a temporary boost to oil prices and potential profit upside,...
Lots of hints that Turkey has done a gold swap to raise FX to fund the central bank's intervention to defend the lira. It didn't show up in the CBRT's reserve disclosure for March 19th (reporting is lagged a week). ...
mexico just cut rates 25bps (split 3-2 vote) some DM central banks already getting outclassed by an EM
Costa Rica’s colon surged to 465 per U.S. dollar, its strongest level since 2005, marking a 7% gain this year. The rally was driven by robust export growth and increased foreign investment. In response, the central bank intervened, purchasing roughly...
Not a day to stay on the sidelines. Aside from gold: I welcome this pullback in Latin American stocks. Looks like a correction within the early innings of a structural bull market in emerging markets. https://t.co/PqNvdOT6AB https://t.co/nL6e7JkoCR
Goldman Sachs downgrades India to Market Weight and lowers NIFTY target to 25,900 from 29,300.
Tazapay announced the close of a $36 million Series B extension led by Circle Ventures, bringing total Series B funding to $36 million. The round added new investors CMT Digital and Coinbase Ventures alongside existing backers. The capital will fund licensing expansion, accelerate go‑to‑market...
Be careful not to confuse changes in valuation and changes in custodial patterns (after Russia's reserves were immobilized) with actual sales https://t.co/zTGz75N9rr
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
India’s FY 2027 budget faces heightened pressure as the West Asia conflict drives global crude oil to $157 a barrel and natural‑gas prices to $22 per MMBtu, more than double pre‑crisis levels. Higher energy costs are expected to lift fertilizer and...
According to The Economist, the biggest emerging market countries that are being hit by the energy shock are: Jordan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Ethiopia. THE COUNTRIES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/ED3ID96us3
Kazakhstan–China Relations: Perceptions of China After the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Gaziza Shakhanova, 2026 https://t.co/lD5RrER3uG
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, led by Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan, reaffirmed its commitment to global investments despite the rising economic burden of the war with Iran. Al Rumayyan described the kingdom’s macroeconomic and physical position as strong, stable and resilient. He...
Kospi just dropped 3%+. South Korea doesn't move 3% for no reason. Yen carry trade stress. Japan buying yen. Selling Treasuries to do it. Asian contagion doesn't stay in Asia. Watch $EEM. Watch $FXI. $VIX $SPY https://t.co/M3BpoEWXWm
Middle Eastern funds have racked up outsize gains from bets on newly-listed Chinese AI companies China uninvestable? Seems like so long ago now... https://t.co/u1DyM6ixKs
On February 12, 2026 Taiwan and the United States signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), eliminating tariffs on roughly 99 percent of bilateral goods and expanding market access across multiple sectors. Beyond tariff cuts, the pact embeds a security architecture...
An investment boom in AI has kept China’s trade volumes on a path to exceed last year’s record levels, offsetting disruptions from higher oil prices in the weeks after war broke out in Iran https://t.co/L3nAViEgYs
