Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Aon Warns Geopolitical Turmoil Could Shrink 2026 Buyer’s Market
Aon’s Q1 2026 Global Insurance Market Insights report cautions that escalating geopolitical volatility, especially in the Middle East, could quickly erode the soft, buyer‑friendly conditions that have characterized the commercial insurance market this year. The firm warns that delayed action may leave organisations with tighter pricing, reduced capacity and stricter policy language.
US Push to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Tests Iran Ceasefire, Risks Oil Flow
The United States opened an "enhanced security area" in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing two American‑flagged merchant vessels to transit while Iran launched missiles, drones and small boats in retaliation. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf called the move a...
Business Ties and Financial Reform in Focus at Africa Forward
The Africa Forward summit in Nairobi, hosted by France, placed trade, investment and financial reform at the forefront. French President Emmanuel Macron and Kenyan President William Ruto pledged to boost private‑sector investment across health, education, digital technology, energy and infrastructure,...
Vietnam Real Estate Market 2026 Weathering Headwinds Embracing a New Cycle
Vietnam’s real estate sector is poised for a new growth cycle as the incoming government rolls out key legal frameworks that promise greater regulatory transparency and stability. Accelerating inter‑regional infrastructure and rapid urbanisation are reshaping demand toward genuine housing needs...
The Chinese EV Standard Winning Globally Is Banned in the U.S.
On March 17 the United States prohibited any vehicle with Chinese‑developed software from being sold domestically, a rule that takes effect for new models arriving in July 2025. Chinese EV makers, led by BYD, dominate global markets by integrating batteries, chips...
Can Indonesia Turn Holiday Island Bali Into a Global Financial Hub?
Indonesia announced plans to develop Bali’s Kura Kura Special Economic Zone into an international financial centre, mirroring Dubai, Hong Kong and Singapore. The government aims for $7 billion in investments by 2029, with $93 million already realised and 2,146 jobs created. Incentives...
Meta’s AI Nightmare: China Reclaims Manus in Power Move
China's National Development and Reform Commission has blocked Meta Platforms' $2.5 billion acquisition of AI startup Manus, citing national‑security concerns, and ordered a full reversal of the deal. Meta must restore Manus’s assets, purge transferred data and technology, and meet a...
Middle East Conflict Set to Test ASEAN Unity as Leaders Gather in Cebu for Summit
ASEAN leaders convene in Cebu amid the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict that threatens global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The summit’s agenda is dominated by energy security, with member states weighing the impact of disrupted supplies on their economies....
EU Cyber Plan Barring Chinese Suppliers Will Cost US$430 Billion: Report
The European Union is set to adopt a new Cybersecurity Act that would bar Chinese hardware from critical infrastructure such as telecoms, energy grids, and transport networks. A recent study estimates the required replacement of Chinese equipment will cost the...
China’s Quiet Rise Undermines US Strategic Advantage
China has spent years removing what used to be America’s advantage. That changes behaviour. Not just for China, but for everyone around it. You focus on the rock. Russia. Iran. You miss who threw it. This is a snippet from David’s recent podcast episode with Grant...
Capitalising on Mauritius Protected Cell Companies to Unlock Investment Opportunities in Africa
Investors eyeing Africa’s booming infrastructure, real estate, private‑equity and finance markets face fragmented legal regimes, high compliance costs and contagion risk. Mauritius Protected Cell Companies (PCCs) offer a single legal vehicle that houses multiple segregated “cells,” each with its own...
COMMENT: Iran War’s Geopolitical Risks Alone Is Not Enough to Cause a Global Recession
Oxford Economics’ Ben May argues that the recent surge in the Geopolitical Risk index, driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict and the Gulf war, is unlikely to become the main catalyst for a global recession. While the war has tightened energy...
Resilient, Not Shock-Free: India Charts Path Through War Jitters
India’s economy is feeling the tremors of the West Asia conflict, with rising oil prices and trade disruptions testing its resilience. While the Finance Ministry’s April review notes strong domestic demand and solid policy buffers, export volumes fell 7.4% in...
Iran Enforces New ‘Sovereign’ Transit Rules in Strait of Hormuz, Mandates Prior Permits for Vessels
Iran has instituted a permit‑based system requiring all vessels to obtain electronic authorization before transiting the Strait of Hormuz, designating a specific maritime corridor for passage. The move, announced by the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and backed by the IRGC...
Digital Finance as a Geopolitical Arena: China, Web3, and the Competition Over Africa’s Digital Payments Landscape
Africa’s digital payments sector is rapidly expanding, driven by a surge in crypto adoption and the rollout of Web3‑based fintech solutions such as mobile money and stablecoins. The continent is transitioning to the ISO 20022 messaging standard, which promises richer data...
What to Know About Israeli President Herzog’s Trip to Central America?
Israeli President Isaac Herzog will travel May 6‑9 to Panama and Costa Rica, marking the first Israeli presidential visit to the region. The tour aims to cement diplomatic ties as Israel confronts growing international isolation over its Middle‑East conflicts. Panama, a current non‑permanent...
How to Get Back Into Emerging Markets Using ETFs
Emerging‑market ETFs are back in focus as Canadian investors notice a sharp performance gap: the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index ETF (XEC) posted a 25.34% return in Canadian dollars for 2024‑25, versus 12.06% for the S&P 500 ETF (XUS)....
India’s Cautious Stance Overlooks Decades of Foreign‑owned Success
In an article today in Bloomberg the journalists talk about how Shriram Finance deal is a test deal for India because of (among others) "India's guarded embrace of foreign capital" Who will tell these guys about presence of very high (even...
China's New Trade Rules Heighten Supply‑Chain Pressure on U.S. Firms
Beijing introduced new trade rules this month that could undercut U.S. attempts to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing. Analysts warn the measures will add legal and cost pressures for American exporters, while the Trump administration has remained publicly silent ahead...
Chinese Startup ZYT Moves to Mass‑produce Semi‑autonomous Trucks by Late 2026
Shenzhen‑based ZYT, a spin‑off from drone maker DJI, announced plans to begin mass production of semi‑autonomous trucks in the second half of 2026 after securing deals with China’s six largest heavy‑truck manufacturers. The move positions the startup as the first...
China Private Survey Rating Dog Services PMI 52.6 in April (up From 52.1 in March)
China's private RatingDog services PMI rose to 52.6 in April from 52.1 in March, indicating a faster expansion pace. New orders grew for a 40‑month streak, driven chiefly by domestic demand, while export orders fell for a second consecutive month....
Chinese Automakers Face Excess Capacity, Seek Overseas Markets
Guess I should have said shrinking industry margins rather than summarised for stiklers for accuracy like Glenn: " In China alone, experts estimate annual demand of about 25mn cars against estimated factory capacity of 45-50mn. The prolonged price war and eroding...
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Hinges on Immediate MOU Deal
According to the @Axios report, the Strait of Hormuz would only re-open "gradually" during a 30-day period of negotiations *if* an initial deal on a single page memorandum of understanding can be achieved in the next few hours/days. https://t.co/Ak6nBF0FRK
SelectUSA Summit: Indian Companies Pledge ₹1.1 Billion Investment and 1,500 Jobs
At the SelectUSA Investment Summit, twelve Indian companies announced a combined $1.1 billion investment in the United States, covering aerospace, defence, energy, advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence. The largest single investor, Abhyuday Group, will spend $900 million to create manufacturing clusters in...
China Urges EU to Drop Discriminatory Investment Rules
China Daily: "China has called on the EU to remove discriminatory requirements against foreign investors, local content mandates, compulsory transfers of intellectual property and technology, and restrictions on public procurement." https://t.co/WiZSoHM4tE
China’s Wind Surge Outpaces Global Capacity, Proves Prescient
NYT: "Last year, China installed three times as much wind power capacity as the rest of the world combined, even as its turbine exports jumped. The war has made China’s investments in wind look prescient." https://t.co/9AvdVUmIDM
West Asia War May Briefly Dent India's Growth as Fundamentals Strong: Memani
The West Asia war is expected to temporarily dent India’s growth, nudging the FY27 forecast down from the pre‑war 7‑7.4% range toward the RBI’s 6.9% outlook. Inflation has spiked, with wholesale‑price‑index rising to 3.88% in March while consumer‑price‑index remains within...
China Tightens Global Port Control, Plays Long Game
The Economist reports that China has a TIGHTENING GRIP on critical ports AROUND THE WORLD. CHINA = KNOWS HOW TO CAREFULLY PLAY THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/OtRhEJQxj2
UAE's Glittering Image Masks Stagnant Economy and Corruption
Contrary to the media spinners, the UAE is NOT BOOMING. It’s a sunny place where a lot of shady characters reside. https://t.co/uUjCe5kFIJ
Chinese EV Makers Capture 8 of Top 10 Slots at Bangkok Motor Show, Marking Thailand's Shift
Chinese automakers seized eight of the top ten vehicle bookings at the 47th Bangkok International Motor Show, with BYD taking the lead. The surge follows Thailand's halving of the NEV purchase tax break and price cuts of up to 30%,...
Asian Markets Surge on Trump‑backed Iran Optimism, Chip Rally
"Asian markets rally as Trump signals optimism for Iran deal South Korea, Taiwan shares hit fresh highs amid chip frenzy" https://t.co/V3d6axgmwB
China Purchases Iranian Oil Ahead of Trump's Beijing Visit
China is buying Iranian oil despite US sanctions. This is happening right before Trump makes his trip to Beijing. https://t.co/1J4eVbH5YU
Man Group Applies for ADGM License, Opening Abu Dhabi Hedge‑Fund Hub
Man Group, the world’s largest listed hedge‑fund manager with $228.7 bn in assets, has filed for a Category 3A licence to operate in the Abu Dhabi Global Market. The move creates a regional hub aimed at tapping Gulf institutional capital and expanding...
India’s Secondary Cities Power New Wave of Affluent Consumption, Shifting Growth Beyond Metros
India’s affluent consumer base has expanded beyond Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru, with the number of earners above ₹10 lakh rising from 69 lakh to 130 lakh. The shift fuels experience‑led spending in secondary cities, while ultra‑high‑net‑worth individuals surge 63%, prompting investors to chase...
IMF Warns India Faces ‘Triple‑whammy’ of Energy, Finance and Monsoon Risks, Rattling Asian Equities
IMF Asia‑Pacific director Krishna Srinivasan warned that India’s high energy intensity, dependence on imports and a looming bad monsoon create a “triple‑whammy” risk to growth and equity markets. He projected Asian growth could slip from 5% to 4.4% this year, with...
Moody?s Raises Vietnam Outlook to Positive on Reform Gains- #CapitalMarkets #Finance #Treasury #Finance
Moody’s Investors Service upgraded Vietnam’s sovereign outlook to positive while affirming its Ba2 rating. The agency cited accelerating institutional reforms—such as ministry mergers and streamlined regulations—that are expected to improve credit quality. Vietnam posted 7.0% GDP growth in 2024 and...
Are We Headed Toward a US-China Trade Showdown?
President Donald Trump is set to travel to Beijing within two weeks, sparking speculation of a renewed US‑China trade showdown. The upcoming talks will likely focus on contentious issues such as the Iran war, Washington’s push for stricter “rules of...
Why Russia’s Richest Woman Tatyana Kim Has High Hopes for Africa
Russia’s e‑commerce giant Wildberries, founded by billionaire Tatyana Kim, announced a strategic push into Africa after signing a partnership with Ethiopia’s sovereign wealth fund. The platform, which drives more than $50 billion in annual sales and runs over 90,000 pick‑up points across...
China’s Quiet on Hormuz: Strategic Silence Explained
Cousin @JacobShap and I wax about China and whether its relative silence on Hormuz makes sense or not. https://t.co/0s4iCkXS7Q
Trump’s Project Freedom Risks Bypassing Iran’s Strait
VIDEO COLUMN: Can President Trump’s new ‘Project Freedom’ unblock the Strait of Hormuz? I take a look at his high-risk, high-reward shipping plan, trying to circumvent Iran’s grip on the crucial waterway. @Opinion https://t.co/u6if9l4171
Aspect Capital Opens $550 Million China Futures Strategy to Global Investors
Aspect Capital, the $9 billion hedge‑fund firm, began offering its China absolute‑return systematic futures strategy to international investors in early April. The product, which manages about $550 million and trades across 65 Chinese futures markets, had previously been limited to mainland investors...
China’s New Law Forces Firms to Defy US Sanctions
My take in @FortuneMagazine on China BUCKING US sanctions: "This is a move with teeth. Until last weekend, Beijing’s statutes were a paper tiger. With the issuance of Announcement No. 21, that changed, when Chinese were ordered to ignore US sanctions." https://t.co/EvWcJGEjHO
Gulf‑Backed 50‑Year Karachi Port Concession Signals New Era of Economic Diplomacy
Sheikh Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum’s joint venture with Abu Dhabi Ports secured a 50‑year concession for Karachi’s East Wharf, which handles about 60% of Pakistan’s cargo. The deal, valued in the billions, is being promoted as a diplomatic lever that replaces...
Iran Launches Strait Authority, Threatens $90B Fees
Iran does not care about any UN reg. They will do what they want with the Strait. They may be looking at $90bil in fees. What will Trump do?
Rare Earths, PCBs Among 40 Sub-Sectors on FDI Fast Track
India has placed rare‑earth magnets and printed circuit boards among 40 sub‑sectors eligible for a 60‑day fast‑track FDI clearance. The new SOP requires detailed ownership disclosure for investors from China or other bordering nations, with data shared with the RBI....
Indonesia's 5.61% Q1 Growth Hides Weak Fundamentals, Economists Warn
Indonesia’s economy expanded 5.61% year‑on‑year in the first quarter of 2026, the quickest pace in almost three years. The surge was largely fueled by a spike in household consumption as millions of Muslims returned home for Eid al‑Fitr. Economists warn...
Trump Administration Looks to Ease Memory Chip Crunch with Supply Chain Bloc
The Trump administration is forming a multilateral supply‑chain coalition to alleviate the global memory‑chip shortage that is throttling data‑center expansion and AI workloads. The bloc will bring together partners in Asia, Europe and the Middle East, with the United States...
Iran War Could Drag India's GDP Growth to 6.5% This Fiscal, Says CII President Rajiv Memani
India’s GDP could expand about 7% this fiscal if the Iran war ends soon, but Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) president Rajiv Memani warns growth may slip to 6.5% if the conflict persists. He noted that FY 26 growth is projected at...
Global Oil Reserves Plunge at Record Pace as Middle East War Strains Supplies
Global oil inventories shrank by a record‑fast 12 million barrels in a single week, the steepest drawdown since 2020. The ongoing Middle East conflict has knocked roughly 1 million barrels per day of regional output off the market, tightening supplies further. In...
From War‑torn Ruins to Outpacing the UK
Imagine telling someone in 1953 — as Korea lay in ruins after the war — that one day its stock market would be bigger than the UK's.