Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
West Asia Conflict May Trigger Layered Stress on Margins, Liquidity in India's Financial Sector: EY
EY warns that the West Asia conflict will cascade through India’s financial services sector, creating layered stress on margins, liquidity, and asset quality. Early signs include longer supply chains, higher freight and insurance costs, and tighter working‑capital cycles. Second‑order effects may compress margins and defer investments, while third‑order pressures could trigger payment delays and heightened cash‑flow volatility for MSMEs and retail borrowers. The firm also flags AI‑driven employment risks that could amplify income shocks for urban lower‑middle‑income households.
For Gulf States, Geography Is Both a Generous and Treacherous Patron
The article argues that the Gulf’s strategic location, which once turned deserts into petro‑states and global aviation hubs, is now a double‑edged sword as Iran’s strikes and the Strait of Hormuz blockage threaten energy exports and critical infrastructure. UAE and...
China’s Courts Curb Forced Sales, Hiding True Mortgage Defaults
Bloomberg: "The moves [by local courts to limit the volume of forced property sales by slowing the number of cases involving defaulted mortgages] underscore how China’s local institutions are working to limit the damage of a yearslong property crisis that...
Analyst: Middle Eastern Countries Have Reviewed The Policy Of Relations With Russian Federation
Analyst Bohdan Popov says Middle Eastern nations have long treated Russia pragmatically, profiting from oil sales and using Dubai to skirt sanctions. Recent Russian support for Iran, however, has turned Moscow into a perceived threat, prompting a policy rethink across...
Regional Blocs Form New Multi‑Hub Global Trade Order
In case you missed the posting of my new eBook over Easter weekend👇https://t.co/AzOGN20mu3 The April 2025 US tariffs triggered global trade conflict. This column introduces World War Trade: Conflict, Containment, and the Emergent World Trading Order, a new CEPR Rapid...
India Plans Sovereign Guarantees on Loans to Businesses Hit by Iran War, Sources Say
India will issue sovereign credit guarantees for up to $26.7 bn in loans to firms hurt by the Iran‑Israel conflict, targeting especially small and medium‑size enterprises. The program, modeled on pandemic‑era guarantees, will run for four years and cost the treasury...
Singapore Minister Warned Worst Case Not Fully Priced
Singapore’s Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan warned that the war in Iran could trigger a deeper energy shock than markets currently anticipate. He highlighted that Singapore generates over 95% of its electricity from imported natural gas, with roughly half of...
China Started Preparing for an Energy Crisis Long Before the Iran War
China has been quietly building a buffer against energy disruptions for years, stockpiling oil and accelerating renewable projects. Its aggressive shift toward solar, wind, hydro and electric vehicles has already cut domestic demand for refined oil, diesel and gasoline. Simultaneously,...
Allies’ Trust in U.S. Plummets, Eyes Turn Away
It will be a while before America can look another ally directly in the eye Source: Visual Capitalist https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/ig02-countries-losing-trust-in-the-u-s/
Iran's Moves
What Iran means for the dollar: a perfect storm for the petrodollar - Deutsche Bank Research Institute https://t.co/gVdGKCUzyc Why have fiat as an intermediary when you could trade oil tokens for wheat tokens (or whatever) ? https://t.co/ocO6m7zPVd
Vietnam’s Q1 Retail Sales Jump 10.9% to $72.1 B, Boosting Service Sectors
Vietnam’s total retail sales of goods and consumer services reached 1.9 quadrillion dong ($72.14 bn) in the first quarter of 2026, a 10.9% year‑over‑year increase. Goods sales led the surge, while accommodation, catering and other services posted double‑digit growth, underscoring expanding...
Erdogan Warns US‑Israeli Strikes Could Ignite Regional Fire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: On February 28th, President Erdogan condemned the US–Israeli strikes on Iran and warned that if diplomacy and common sense do not prevail, the region could be dragged into a “ring of fire.” ERDOGAN'S 'RING OF FIRE' WAS...
China Buys Iran's Oil, Sustaining Sanctions‑busting War Funding
How China Helped Iran Cushion the Blow of Sanctions and Fund Its War Machine—Over the past half decade, China has provided Iran with a financial lifeline by buying most of its oil @RoryWSJ @BrianSpegele @austinramzy https://t.co/36s4JdH6hU https://t.co/36s4JdH6hU
Google Starts $15 B, 1‑GW AI Data‑Center Hub in Vizag, India
Google’s Indian arm, Raiden Infotech India Ltd., began construction on a $15 billion, 1‑gigawatt data‑center complex near Visakhapatnam on April 28. The three‑site hub, built with Adani Infra, is the biggest single foreign direct investment in India and will expand Google’s global...
Gulf States Pivot to New Allies After
The Gulf Arab states may seek alliances with Turkey, China, India, & Japan says @MahmoudianArman The US war ruined their futures by destroying foreign investment based on perception of stability #Gulf #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #MiddleEast https://t.co/GyYMSu7OKQ
IRGC Aims to Block Qatari LNG, Boost US Supply
Ok, I get it, so...the IRGC wants to choke China and help the US LNG industry by preventing Qatari LNG from reaching China. https://t.co/ERTjvf1YSU
Trump's Deadline Looms but Asian Nations Already Have Deals with Iran
President Trump warned Iran of a "one‑night" strike unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened by Tuesday night. While the deadline loomed, several Asian nations – including the Philippines, India, Pakistan and China – secured bilateral agreements with Tehran for...
Iranian Rial Gains 9% Amid War, Defying Claims
BNE Intellinews claims that the Iranian rial is "losing ground as military strikes hit infrastructure across the country". WRONG. FACT: Since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs the USD. https://t.co/6tlVgFd2Lt
Ninety One Eyes Launch of Global EM Infrastructure Debt Strategy Targeting up to $1bn
Ninety One, the manager behind PIDG’s Emerging Africa and Asia Infrastructure Fund, plans to launch a global emerging‑markets infrastructure debt strategy targeting up to $1 billion. The fund will focus on senior secured loans for power, transport and social‑sector projects across...
Corporations Must Re-Learn How to Be Geopolitical Actors
Executives who rose after the Cold War now confront a world where geopolitical instability dominates corporate risk assessments. A McKinsey survey shows 59% of CEOs rank geopolitics as the top threat to growth, eclipsing trade policy, inflation and domestic politics....
QI Equity Gain Erase Muffles Mojo
Emerging‑market MSCI core and frontier indices rebounded from a two‑month, 15% sell‑off but closed the first quarter slightly negative, down 0.5% and 1.5% respectively. Despite the modest declines, both benchmarks outperformed the global market, which fell about 3% over the...
JD Vance on Standby in US-Iran Talks
Vice President JD Vance is on standby to enter direct talks with Iran if the backchannel negotiations led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner make sufficient progress. President Donald Trump has set a hard deadline for Tehran, threatening...
UAE Emerges as AI Powerhouse with Strong Long-Term Outlook
Three years from now, we’ll look back at this and call it what it is, a blip. Nothing is stopping the momentum in this region. The UAE is becoming a powerhouse in AI and the economics are simply too strong to ignore....
Southeast Asia Oil Crisis Puts Sovereign Ratings at Risk
Southeast Asian governments are scrambling to subsidize soaring fuel prices after Brent crude topped $90 a barrel, adding a heavy fiscal burden to Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia. The subsidies, intended to quell public unrest, are swelling budget deficits...
Trump Imposes 100% Tariff on Select Pharma Imports; Jefferies Says Indian Generics Likely Spared
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a sweeping 100% tariff on select pharmaceutical imports, prompting alarm across the global supply chain. Jefferies analysts argue that Indian generic exporters will largely escape the levy, though some specialty products may face limited duties....
Services Sector Slows as Iran War Fuels Inflation: ISM Survey
The ISM reported that the U.S. services sector slowed in March as the Iran conflict disrupted supply chains and pushed inflation higher. The non‑manufacturing index slipped 2.1 points to 54%, while the employment index fell to its lowest level since...
As Iran’s Civilian Economy Crumbles, Its Military Economy Grows Stronger
In the first month of the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran, strikes have largely avoided civilian infrastructure, focusing instead on strategic energy assets such as Kharg Island and the South Pars gasfield. The sustained pressure of sanctions and war‑related disruptions is...
ASX Set to Retreat, Wall Street Loses Steam After Trump’s Threat to ‘Take Out’ Iran; Oil Rises
President Donald Trump warned Iran could be "taken out in one night," reigniting geopolitical risk and pushing oil prices higher. U.S. equities posted modest gains—S&P 500 up 0.3%, Dow 0.2%, Nasdaq 0.5%—while Australian futures slipped about 1.1% at the open. Brent...
China's Oil Supply Half Threatened by Hormuz Slowdown
Just FYI, with reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (it cannot be objectively assessed as fully closed), China risks losing roughly 40 to 50 percent of its oil imports, which come from Gulf producers whose exports transit the Strait,...
The Iran War Nightmare Scenario Trump Is Facing
The post imagines Iran telling President Trump that the Strait of Hormuz will stay open only if oil trades abandon the U.S. dollar in favor of euros, yuan or cryptocurrencies. Tehran claims it can rally dozens of nations to bypass...
Lipsky Cited in Bloomberg Article Detailing Why the Iran War May Impact Trump’s Goal of Lowering Interest Rates
A Bloomberg piece cites Atlantic Council analyst Josh Lipsky to explain how the escalating war in Iran could derail former President Donald Trump’s longstanding ambition to push the Federal Reserve toward lower interest rates. The conflict is inflating geopolitical risk...
Nikoladze Joined the Embassy of the Republic of Poland to Launch and Discuss Findings From the Organizations’ New Report
Atlantic Council expert Maia Nikoladze partnered with the Embassy of the Republic of Poland on April 6, 2026 to unveil a joint report that maps Iran’s logistical and financial support for Russia’s drone campaign in Ukraine. The analysis quantifies the flow of...
Washington Post Cites GeoEconomics Research on China’s Cross-Border Digital Currency Platform mBridge
The Washington Post referenced a new GeoEconomics study highlighting China’s cross‑border digital currency platform, mBridge. The research notes that mBridge, built on the digital yuan, now supports real‑time settlements among pilot banks in Hong Kong, Singapore and other Asian hubs....
Ukrainian Drone Strikes Halt Russian Oil Exports as Odesa Strike Kills Three
Ukrainian long‑range drones knocked out Russia’s Novorossiysk Black Sea terminal and Baltic ports Ust‑Luga and Primorsk, halting roughly 20% of Moscow’s crude exports and costing the Kremlin an estimated $1 bn. At the same time, a Russian missile strike on Odesa...
Turkmengaz Signs $‑$ Contract with Chinese Firm to Build New Galkynysh Gas Facility
Turkmengaz State Concern announced a contract with a Chinese partner to design, construct and equip a new gas production facility at the Galkynysh field. The deal marks a major push to expand Turkmenistan’s gas output amid regional energy tensions, including...
China's Ag‑Tech Firms Deploy Data‑Driven Greenhouses to 40+ Countries
Lisente Agricultural Technology shipped steel frames for data‑enabled greenhouses to Uzbekistan, marking its 270th project across more than 40 nations. The push leverages AI‑driven irrigation, temperature control and real‑time monitoring, signaling a new wave of Chinese big‑data agriculture abroad.
India Resilient as Global Economy Shifts From ‘Shocks’ to 'Permanent Volatility'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman warned that the global economy is shifting from episodic shocks to “permanent volatility” driven by trade fragmentation and the West Asia conflict. She highlighted India’s strong fiscal position, with general government debt at about 81% of...
Daily Memo: China Issues Peculiar Airspace Restrictions, Oil Cartel Raises Quotas
China announced temporary airspace restrictions along its eastern coast from March 27 to May 6, covering zones from the Yellow Sea to the East China Sea and areas north and south of Shanghai. The restrictions were imposed without any accompanying...
China’s Yuan May Be Going Global Faster than Western Data Suggests, Analysts Say
Analysts argue that China’s yuan is expanding globally faster than traditional metrics reveal, as an increasing volume of cross‑border transactions now flow through the country’s own payment network, CIPS. Because CIPS and bilateral settlement channels bypass SWIFT’s messaging system, they...
RBI Keeps Investment Limit for FPIs in G-Secs Unchanged for FY27
The Reserve Bank of India confirmed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) can continue to hold up to 6 percent of India’s outstanding government securities through the general route for fiscal year 2026‑27. The split between the General and Long‑term sub‑categories remains...
Can India Become the World’s Innovation Capital?
India is shedding its image as a low‑cost back‑office and emerging as a leading global hub for invention and product development. Driven by a deep engineering talent pool, accelerated AI adoption, and recent policy reforms, the country is attracting multinational...
Ceasefire Stalled: US Wants Open Strait, Iran Opposes
Okay, so here’s how how the ceasefire cookie crumbles: - A ceasefire without the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will likely be unacceptable to the US. - A ceasefire with a reopening will likely be unacceptable to Iran. Iran appears serious...
Putin’s Eurozone Bid Once Threatened US‑Europe Ties
Here’s another one: Many on X seem to forget that Europe also tried to separate from the US 16 years ago, when Putin said Russia would join the Eurozone, which would have married Russian energy with German engineering, a combo...
Markets Stay Calm Amid Iran Uncertainty, Expect Resolution
The market has been surprisingly calm given the growing uncertainty in Iran. It is signaling that it expects a resolution. We are one President Trump tweet away from a face ripping rally. 💪🏻⏳🚀 https://t.co/PC697j3Xeb
British-Led Hormuz Reopening Plan Unrealistic without U.S. Support
The British-led effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by forming a coalition without U.S. involvement is just unrealistic. Here's why... #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/lVUq1LEnA7
Iranian Rial Gains 9% Amid US-Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran 5 weeks ago, the Iranian rial as APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA (READ: PROPGANDA MACHINE) REMAINS SILENT ON THIS INCONVENIENT FACT. https://t.co/9n42ihPYE9
Middle East Oil Loss Spikes Global Oil Prices
Yes...we do get something from the Persian Gulf. 8% of US imports come from the Middle East. More importantly, when you lose Middle East oil, all other oil goes up in price and demand.
How the Strait of Hormuz Shapes Global Goods Flow
We did an awesome interview on the physical layout and flow of goods resulting from the Strait of Hormuz, with @mercoglianos. Listen here. https://t.co/jmVFr6LS8L
Iran Rejects Peace Proposal; Video Highlights Core Issues
Hormuz Watch - Iran just rejected the peace proposal, but this video still lays out the issues at hand. #oatt https://t.co/0psvZMn12p
China IPOs Surge 56% After Regulatory Easing
China IPOs jump 56% as regulator eases restrictions to drive tech innovation Funds raised on the mainland’s three exchanges in the first quarter topped 25.7 billion yuan, compared with 16.5 billion yuan a year earlier https://t.co/yJkQKKH5LK