Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Hisham Ezz Al-Arab: Period of Transition
Egypt’s private sector now drives 78% of GDP and generated 94% of exports in 2023, with private investment hitting a record 65% of total capital. The government aims to boost private investment above 70% by 2030 and will list 20 state‑owned enterprises on the Egyptian Stock Exchange as part of its IMF‑linked privatization plan. Commercial International Bank (CIB) is expanding its SME lending, reaching $320 million (≈$516 million) and targeting digital, mobile‑first services while supporting public‑private partnership projects worth over $1.5 billion in 2025. Renewable energy is a priority, with a goal to raise its share from 12% to 42% by 2030.
Impending Bahrain Conflict Could Trigger Oil Market Catastrophe
I sat down with @JoshYoung, CIO of Bison Interests - the fund that returned 349% in a single year on oil. He told me this war is far from over. And the real crisis hasn't even started. "I don't think the market...
The Iran War Is Coming for Your Social Security
The author warns that a war involving Iran could destabilize the petrodollar system, the cornerstone of U.S. Treasury financing. By threatening the dollar’s dominance in global oil markets, the conflict could undermine the fiscal foundation that supports Social Security, Medicare...
Trump and Vance Back Orbán Ahead of Hungary’s Election
U.S. former President Donald Trump and Ohio Senator JD Vance have publicly backed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ahead of the country’s upcoming parliamentary election. Their endorsement was announced in a joint statement emphasizing shared values on sovereignty, immigration and...
Trump: "A Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight" If Iran Does Not Reach a Deal to Open the Strait of Hormuz
Former President Donald Trump warned that a failure to secure an Iranian agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a catastrophic energy crisis. The United States delivered a 15‑point peace plan via Pakistan on March 25, demanding concessions...
The Philippine’s Strategic Dilemma in the Shadow of Middle East Conflict
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency as the U.S.-Iran war disrupted oil supplies, leaving the country with roughly 50 days of fuel reserves. Manila secured preferential access to Iranian crude and sought U.S. waivers to import...
Middle East: Key Trends Shaping 2026
The US‑Israeli war with Iran has plunged the Middle East into its deepest crisis in decades, rattling Gulf economies, global oil markets and supply chains. Prior to the escalation, GCC growth was outpacing the world, with Qatar at 6.1% and...
Volkswagen Group Unveils AI‑Driven "In China, for China" EV Campaign at Beijing Media Night
Volkswagen Group launched its "In China, for China" electric‑vehicle campaign at the Auto China 2026 media night in Beijing, unveiling four world‑premiere models and AI‑powered marketing systems. The rollout underscores the Group’s push to release a new vehicle every two...
Kenyan Banks Post Record $2.16 Bn Profit in 2025 Despite Rate‑cut Cycle
Kenya’s 11 listed banks posted a combined after‑tax profit of $2.16 bn in 2025, up 15.7% from the prior year. The surge came as interest‑rate cuts lowered funding costs and banks pivoted to non‑interest income, wealth management and digital services, underscoring...
Stricter Chinese Scrutiny of Offshore Vehicles a Blow for Tech and Biotech IPO Candidates
Chinese regulators are intensifying scrutiny of offshore listing structures, a move that threatens the pipeline of tech and biotech companies seeking U.S.-dollar IPOs. Historically, Cayman Islands vehicles have funneled foreign capital into Chinese firms, but new compliance requirements could deter...
ASEAN+3 Forecasts 4% Growth in 2026‑27 Amid Iran War and Energy Costs
The ASEAN+3 macroeconomic research office (AMRO) projects the bloc will grow 4% in both 2026 and 2027, even as the Iran war and soaring oil prices pressure the region. The outlook highlights strong inflation control, robust foreign direct investment and...
Why Oil Markets Could Be Wildly Wrong on Strait of Hormuz
The article argues that oil markets may be overstating the impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption, suggesting that while flows have been curtailed, they are not entirely halted. Analysts note that Iran is likely regulating traffic rather than enforcing...
How the Iran War Has Sowed Panic Among Farmers
The ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict has driven up global fertilizer and fuel costs, sparking panic among farmers worldwide. Prices for nitrogen‑based fertilizers have surged by more than 60%, while diesel rates have risen sharply due to disrupted shipping lanes in the...
The Road to De-Escalation With Iran
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving sharp increases in oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilizer and LPG prices worldwide. These spikes are inflating costs for cash‑strapped governments and jeopardizing food security in key agricultural regions. Analysts argue that...
The War to Break Iran’s Economy
An unprecedented economic campaign against Iran is intensifying, as the United States, European Union and regional allies expand sanctions targeting oil exports, banking links and advanced technology. The measures have slashed Iran’s oil revenues by roughly half and forced the...
Wells Fargo Predicts Swift Strait of Hormuz Reopening
They are drunk in fantasyland over at WFG: "The team at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute has a base case that sees a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz occur relatively soon, as well as limited damage to Middle Eastern...
Pre-Markets Lower Ahead of Important Day in Iran
U.S. pre‑market futures slipped Tuesday, with the Dow down 0.47%, the S&P 500 down 0.56%, and the Nasdaq down 0.75% as investors brace for President Trump’s deadline on Iran. February durable‑goods orders fell 1.4%, the weakest reading since October 2025, though...
IMF Warns of Emerging Markets’ Exposure to ‘Flighty’ Hedge Funds
The International Monetary Fund warned that emerging‑market economies are becoming increasingly exposed to sudden capital outflows from hedge funds that can shift positions quickly. Hedge funds have expanded their holdings of sovereign and corporate debt in these markets, often using...
Why East Asia Isn’t Surprised by the Rupture in the Global Order
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos address framed the current geopolitical shift as a "rupture" and urged middle powers to act together. East Asian states have spent the past decade adapting to a waning U.S.-led order through deeper Washington engagement,...
A Single Chokepoint Failure Reveals the Fragile Architecture of Africa’s Energy Supply Chain
The abrupt closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil, has halted tanker traffic and left African importers scrambling for fuel. Nations such as Kenya, Ethiopia and Zambia are already experiencing severe shortages and price...
Appian Opens Unit in São Paulo to Invest in Latin America
Appian Capital Advisory announced the launch of a new headquarters in São Paulo to source and evaluate mining assets across Latin America. The move is part of a broader British fund strategy that aims to deploy roughly $220 billion in investments...
AgDevCo Increases Commitment to East African Aquaculture Company
AgDevCo, the agriculture‑focused impact investor, has committed a $15 million mezzanine loan as a follow‑on investment to Victory Group, an East African tilapia producer. Victory Group, which farms Nile tilapia on Lake Victoria in Kenya and Lake Kivu in Rwanda, aims...
Submit Your Questions: How Will the Iran War Impact China?
A live Ask‑an‑Expert session is scheduled for April 10, featuring Joe Leahy and Cheng Leng from Bloomberg's Beijing bureau. The discussion will focus on how the ongoing Iran‑Israel war could reshape China's strategic, economic, and energy interests. Participants can submit...
Fitch Raises Nigeria Inflation to 15.5% as Sub‑Saharan Growth Trimmed to 4.2%
Fitch Solutions upgraded Nigeria's 2026 inflation forecast to 15.5% and nudged its GDP growth to 4.4%, while lowering the aggregate Sub‑Saharan Africa growth projection to 4.2%. The revisions reflect higher global oil prices and the fallout from an extended US‑Iran...
UBS Has Alarming News About Oil if the Strait of Hormuz Closes
UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo warned that a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could remove roughly 10 million barrels of crude per day from global markets, adding to an already 90% reduction in flow. The chokepoint normally carries about 20 million...
Phone Logs Revive Argentine President Milei's $Libra Crypto Scandal
New phone logs reveal seven calls between President Javier Milei and cryptocurrency founder Mauricio Novelli on the night the $Libra token surged in 2025. The evidence fuels opposition demands for congressional testimony and deepens a legal probe into a collapse that wiped...
Whose Water Powers the Cloud? Data Centers and the Right to Water in Johor
Johor, Malaysia, has become Southeast Asia’s fastest‑growing data‑center hub, with capacity reaching about 5.8 GW by mid‑2025—almost double the previous year. The rapid expansion has sparked a water‑use crisis, as medium‑sized centers consume roughly 110 million gallons annually and mega‑centers up to...
The Cycle Persists Through Geopolitical Disruption
Calamos Growth and Income Fund maintains a positive yet cautious stance amid the Iran war, viewing it as a mid‑cycle disruption rather than a recession catalyst. The fund’s base case assumes the Strait of Hormuz normalizes by early May and...
How The Iran War Is Reshaping Global AI Strategy
Iranian missile and drone attacks have begun targeting data centers in the Gulf, hitting Amazon Web Services facilities in the UAE and Bahrain and an Oracle site in Dubai. The strikes expose a new class of strategic asset, prompting concerns...
Continuing Consequences From the US-Iran Conflict
The US‑Iran conflict has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driving crude oil prices up 83% to over $110 a barrel and pushing U.S. gasoline to $4.79 per gallon. Higher energy costs are feeding persistent inflation, complicating the...
Iran ‘Does Not Forget Its Friends’ as Malaysia Ships Pass Hormuz Amid Selective Access
Iran allowed Malaysia‑linked tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz after Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s direct appeal to President Masoud Pezeshkian, freeing seven vessels that had been stranded. The decision signals Tehran’s shift toward a selective‑access model, where passage is...
Fiscal Strain Drives Rupiah to Record Low
Rupiah at Record Low of 17,080. It’s not just the war. Polisi fiskal memberi bebanan. Between 2025 and April 2026: •Rupiah jatuh 5% in 2025 •Deficit 2.92% of GDP, widest in several years. •Foreign investors sold off bonds •Bank Indonesia (BI) buys govt bonds...
Build Global Energy Corridors to Bypass Hormuz, Says Hochstein
".... The only long-term solution is new infrastructure—making a massive, internationally coordinated investment in energy corridors that bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely... " -- @amoshochstein https://t.co/hvu4ACTwok
Afreximbank Launches $10bn Crisis Support for Africa, Caribbean
Afreximbank has approved a $10 billion Gulf Crisis Response Programme to cushion African and Caribbean economies from the fallout of the Middle‑East conflict. The fund will supply short‑term foreign‑exchange and liquidity to keep essential imports such as fuel, food and pharmaceuticals...
EIA Predicts Prolonged Persian Gulf Crude Production Disruption
The US Energy Information Administration (@EIAgov) is now forecasting a rather long disruption to crude oil production in the Persian Gulf. (Note this is wellhead production rather than flows via Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't appear to include natural gas liquids,...
Iran Breaches Saudi Missile Defense, Threatens 7 M Bpd Output
Iran has successfully penetrated Saudi Arabia's missile defense systems. The strikes caused major damage to energy infrastructure, & those bypass options just went out the window. If strikes continue, nearly ~7 million barrels per day could go offline for years. #crude...
Singapore Set to Be Hit by Global Energy Crisis as It Unveils Countermeasures
The Middle East conflict is driving an Asia‑wide energy crunch that will hit Singapore’s economy, though the city‑state is better positioned than many neighbours. In parliament, ministers announced a S$200 boost to the cost‑of‑living cash payment and accelerated S$500 food...
Rubio: Iran's Hormuz Attacks Threaten Global Commerce
Rubio this morning on the impact of the Iran war: "The whole world’s been impacted unfortunately because Iran is violating every law known by striking commercial vessels in the Straits of Hormuz, and it’s a big problem for the world."
Energy Crisis Demands Global Cooperation, IMF & World Bank Meet
This energy crisis calls for all hands on deck & international cooperation I'll meet Monday with IMF Managing Director @KGeorgieva & World Bank President Ajay Banga on our institutions' work to support governments amid the economic impacts of the Iran war...
Circulate Capital Secures $220 Million to Boost Asian Recycling, Cutting Demand for Virgin Minerals
Circulate Capital closed the first round of its Asia Fund II with $220 million, surpassing 70% of its $300 million goal. The fund will finance up to two million tonnes of new recycling capacity in South and Southeast Asia, aiming to curb...
China Tightens Offshore Scrutiny, Dampening Tech Biotech IPOs
Stricter Chinese scrutiny of offshore vehicles a blow for tech and biotech IPO candidates Mainland’s stock market watchdog is discouraging establishment of ‘red-chip-structured’ companies in sensitive industries https://t.co/Pj3ZJqdAAm
Global Shift: Gold and Yuan Rise as Dollar Recycling Declines
Translation: MUCH less US dollar recycling... More gold, more yuan; less USD, less UST... #NATO #Iran #Hegemony
Crypto-Backed Resort Scheme in Timor-Leste Sparks PropTech Scrutiny
A joint Guardian and OCCRP investigation uncovered an alleged crypto‑financed luxury resort project in Timor-Leste tied to the sanctioned Prince Holding Group. The probe found the site empty, raised questions about the project's legitimacy, and highlighted regulatory risks for blockchain‑enabled...
Global Trade Will Outgrow Reliance on Hormuz
The future of global trade won’t depend on the Strait of Hormuz via @FT https://t.co/Xiqe7HbQuN
China's Fuel Export Ban Threatens Australia's Jet Fuel Supply
Note that the Chinese readout doesn't mention energy security at all. Elephant in the room is China's fuel export ban. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China last year.
'The Thaw Is Real': Indian Delegation Visits China to Talk EVs and More
India’s PHD Chamber led its first business delegation to China in more than five years, meeting firms in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Wuxi. The eight companies, mainly EV‑charging and battery startups, explored joint ventures and technology transfers to bolster India’s renewable‑energy...
IMF Warns Iran War Acts as ‘Sudden Tax’ on Fuel-Importers, Driving Oil Above $110/Bbl
The IMF warned that the Iran war has become a “sudden tax” on fuel‑importing nations as Brent crude surged past $110 per barrel and U.S. WTI settled at $112.41. Higher energy costs are feeding inflation, tightening fiscal space and threatening...
Europe’s Second Energy Reckoning
A joint U.S.-Israeli military strike on Iran has triggered the largest oil supply disruption ever recorded, sending shockwaves through global energy markets. Europe, still recovering from the 2022‑23 crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now faces a second, acute...
Firmus Technologies Secures $505 Million to Expand AI Data Centers Across Asia‑Pacific
Firmus Technologies raised $505 million in a funding round led by Coatue Management, with Nvidia joining as a strategic investor. The financing values the Australian AI‑infrastructure startup at $5.5 billion and will fund a rollout of new data‑center capacity throughout the Asia‑Pacific...
Geopolitics and Markets: Could Tensions Trigger Another Black Monday?
Professor Radu Tunaru examines how the Iran‑U.S. confrontation of 1987 sparked the Black Monday crash, highlighting that external geopolitical shocks, not just program trading, can trigger market meltdowns. He draws parallels to today’s Iran conflict, noting its impact on oil,...