Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Guatemala: Connecting The Oceans
Guatemala is advancing a $7 billion private "dry canal" called the Guatemalan Interoceanic Corridor (GIC), a 372‑kilometer land route linking a new Pacific port at San Luis with the Caribbean port of San Jorge. The project, backed by the Guatemalan Interoceanic Consortium, India's Lakshmi Capital, and ODEPAL, aims to complete its first two stages by 2030. A novel financing model combines $175 million of traditional funding with $325 million raised through tokenized digital bonds, marking the first infrastructure use of blockchain‑based tokenization. The GIC seeks to divert a share of global trade from the Panama Canal while fostering regional economic integration.
Unclear US War Goals Fuel Market Volatility
"US objectives remain unclear, making it impossible to measure progress (and thus the likely length of the war). Statements from top US administration officials give different and at times contradictory assessments of the war; in the absence of measurable objectives,...
India, Russia Reaffirm $100 Billion Trade Goal as West Asia Simmers
India and Russia reaffirmed their ambition to lift bilateral trade from $68.7 billion to $100 billion by 2030, emphasizing a balanced and sustainable approach. Both ministers highlighted that 96 percent of current trade is settled in national currencies, bypassing Western payment systems. Ongoing...
Trump’s Self‑negotiation Lost; China Won 2025 Standoff
At the height of the tariff stand-off with China in April 2025, Trump was essentially negotiating with himself - threatening escalation and then pulling back - while China stayed silent. We're at that stage now on Iran. China won the...
US‑Israeli Strike Closes Hormuz, Triggers Global Gas Crisis
Thanks to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is ‘closed’. As a result, countries worldwide are facing a gas supply CLIFF-EDGE. LNG from Qatar is NOWHERE TO BE FOUND. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/qE8zgTwxgC
U.S. Executives, From Apple to Eli Lilly, Revamp Their Push Into the World's Second-Largest Economy at the China Development Forum
More than 30 U.S. executives, including Apple’s Tim Cook and Eli Lilly’s David Ricks, attended the China Development Forum in Beijing, signaling a renewed push into China’s consumer market. Apple reported a 23% year‑on‑year rise in iPhone sales, while Eli Lilly announced...
Iran War Hits Potential Inflection Point, Analyst Says
Top market watcher on why this may be a real inflection point in the Iran war https://t.co/mltKPnPYb8 thanks from @AcadSecurities @MorganLBrennan for having us on! The segment, despite being before the 5 day pause post, hasn't aged too badly :)
Iranian Media Denial Halts Bond Yield Moves
Iranian media denied that negotiations had taken place, according to Bloomberg. Some bond yields went flat briefly on this news.
Russia Is the Biggest Winner of the Iran War
The United States’ decision to engage militarily with Iran has sparked a sharp rise in global oil prices. Analysts argue that the price surge disproportionately benefits Russia, whose economy relies heavily on hydrocarbon exports. The influx of revenue bolsters Moscow’s...
Who Is up and Down After the Venezuelan Cabinet Shuffle?
Delcy Rodriguez, Venezuela’s vice‑president, executed a sweeping cabinet reshuffle, replacing roughly half of the ministers and dismissing the entire military high command. Long‑time defense minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, a key power broker for over a decade, was removed from his post....
The War on Oil: Iran Conflict and the Global Energy Crisis
Veteran oil trader Adi Imsirovic told the Beyond the Indus podcast that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict has choked the Strait of Hormuz, creating the most severe energy shock of his career. He argued that futures markets are underpricing the supply...
World Trade Revolves Around EU, China, and US
The basic geography of world trade is centered around three poles #1 EU, #2 China, #3 US. Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/DG0iBZBvfZ
Middle East Conflict Drives Global LNG Exports to Six‑month Low
Global LNG exports drop to the lowest level in six months due to Middle East conflict ⚠️ 🚢 This basically erases supply additions from the US and elsewhere during that period The drop is primarily from Qatar — and to a...
Is Indonesia’s Special Economic Zone Strategy Starting to Bear Fruit?
Indonesia’s special economic zone (SEZ) program has expanded to 25 operational zones with seven more under construction, attracting roughly $19.7 bn in cumulative investment and creating about 248,000 jobs by the end of 2025. Early zones like Sei Mangkei and Gresik...
Global Economy Under ‘Major Threat’ From Strait of Hormuz Crisis: IEA Chief
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis poses a "major threat" to the global economy. The US‑Iran confrontation has nearly halted traffic through the waterway, which carries about 20% of world oil and...
🌊 Poland's Miraculous Turnaround
Poland’s economy broke the $1 trillion GDP threshold, placing it among the world’s 20 largest economies, and posted a 3.6% growth rate in 2025 – the fastest among EU members in Q4. The surge follows a historic shift that began with...
US Begins NAFTA Talks, Leaves Canada Out
The U.S. has kicked off renegotiating NAFTA, but Canada was left out of the first round between Mexico and the U.S. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/FCIjtRSKp6 #nafta #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/t6Gl84ia32
Sell Imbalance Hits 2022 Levels, Hedging Costs Soar
From GS on Flows (BBG): - Biggest sell imbalance since 2022 (Friday) - Stresses no longer “ignored” - “can start talking at what innings we’re in because the game has finally started” - Hedging is so expensive that to break even, would need indexes...
Fabio Panetta: Introductory Remarks – Conference "Laying the Groundwork for Jobs in Africa: Core Infrastructure and Business Environments"
Fabio Panetta highlighted the looming youth employment crisis, noting that 1.2 billion young people will join the labour force in developing nations over the next decade, with Africa accounting for a quarter of the global youth population by 2050. He warned...
Iranian Oil Routes to China via SWIFT Workarounds
Pfft. None of the desanctioned Iranian oil is going anywhere other than China, because only China can shield their payments from SWIFT. All of these masterful gambits assume the Iranians are idiots. They’re evil. Not idiots.
Business Entities Outline Risks Middle East Conflict Poses for South Africa
The escalation of the Middle East conflict is expected to ripple through the global economy, pressuring South Africa’s fuel costs, inflation and exchange rates. Business Leadership South Africa’s CEO Busi Mavuso warns that higher diesel prices will strain the mining...
ADNOC Cuts LNG Output as Hormuz Closure Tightens Gas Market
Adnoc is now reducing LNG production because Strait of Hormuz is shut, tightening the global gas market 🇦🇪 ⚠️ Adnoc has “made temporary operational adjustments to production of Liquefied Natural Gas” They’re working with customers to fulfill commitments “wherever possible” https://t.co/dLBNlgiLER
Threats Abound to India’s Traditional Geopolitical Role
India’s multialignment strategy is under strain as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran triggered a domestic LPG shortage, exposing the country’s energy fragility. Simultaneously, New Delhi’s decision to reopen critical sectors to Chinese foreign direct investment deepens its reliance on a...
MPIC Increases 2026 Capex to over ₱200 Billion Due to Investments in Renewables
Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC) raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget to over ₱200 billion, up from roughly ₱190 billion in 2025, driven primarily by large‑scale renewable‑energy projects such as Meralco’s SP New Energy Corp and the Terra Solar farm, slated to...
JV Ejercito Pushes for Creation of Inter-Agency Task Force on Middle East Conflict
Senator Joseph Victor "JV" Ejercito urged the Philippine government on March 23 to create an inter‑agency task force that would monitor and mitigate the economic and energy fallout from the escalating Middle East conflict. He cited Senate Resolution No. 43, which...
Great AI Divide: Markets in America, Systems in China
The United States and China are pursuing opposite AI strategies: the U.S. relies on market‑driven, fragmented innovation while China embeds AI into coordinated, state‑led systems. American firms chase autonomous models and rapid scaling, whereas Beijing focuses on using intelligence to...
PBoC Governor Says Global Deficits Unchanged in 40 Years
1/4 I am a little surprised by these comments from the governor of the PBoC. According to Yicai, yesterday he said that "the world’s major deficit countries are the same as 40 years ago because of the inherent flaws in the...
Nina Schick: “This Is the First AI War”
Nina Schick argues the Iran‑US conflict marks the first AI‑driven war, exposing how massive compute and electricity needs are now strategic assets. She links the fighting to the broader US‑China rivalry, noting that energy constraints directly affect AI scaling and...
‘Outlook Has Grown More Daunting’: Moody’s Warns on Asia-Pacific Growth, Sees Slowdown to 4% in 2026 Amid Heightened Middle East...
Moody’s projects Asia‑Pacific GDP growth slowing to 4 % in 2026 and 3.6 % in 2027, down from 4.3 % in 2025. The downgrade reflects surging commodity prices from the Middle‑East conflict and lingering U.S. tariff uncertainty. Export performance remains resilient, driven by...
Global Economy Faces Major Threat Amid Worsening Energy Crisis: IEA Chief
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that the world is heading toward a severe energy crisis as at least 40 oil and gas assets in West Asia have been severely damaged. He described the situation as a combination of two...
Iranian Rial Gains 12% Amid Early War Turmoil
Through the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran, the Iranian rial has demonstrated surprising resilience. It has APPRECIATED 12% against the USD. https://t.co/eDotRHK77c
How China Forgot Karl Marx
China’s labor share fell from 21% in 1987 to 15% in 2023, leaving workers with a shrinking slice of economic output. Despite dramatic poverty reduction, wages in manufacturing now rank near the bottom of a 87‑country survey, and the minimum...
Kharg Island Seizure Won’t Halt Iran’s Oil Exports
[MUST READ] Iran’s Kharg Island - U.S. seizure would not necessarily end exports or re-open the Strait: https://t.co/yRYH1g1UAM
Iran’s Yuan‑Oil Deal Tests Petrodollar’s Grip on Emerging Markets
Iran is negotiating yuan‑priced oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, while Gulf exporters have seen a 97% output collapse. The move, coupled with rising oil prices and $1 trillion reparations demands, is pressuring the petrodollar system and prompting $1.1 billion outflows...
Nigeria Pushes for Stronger Africa‑Latin America Alliance at CELAC Forum
Nigeria’s Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar urged African and Latin American leaders to deepen cooperation across technology, agriculture, energy and culture at the CELAC‑Africa High-Level Forum in Bogotá, positioning Nigeria as a catalyst for a new South‑South trade and investment framework.
ASEAN Gears Up for 60th Anniversary with Push for Deeper Integration and Energy Reform
ASEAN is preparing for its 60th anniversary in 2027 by launching reforms that target tighter economic integration, greener energy cooperation and more flexible decision‑making. Intra‑ASEAN trade has risen to $822 bn in 2024, but the bloc’s consensus‑based model is under pressure...
How the West Asian Conflict Upended Global Monetary Policy
The US‑Iran war has forced major central banks to pause rate cuts, reversing earlier expectations. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan all kept rates steady, while Sweden and Switzerland...
India, 39 Others Raise Concerns over China-Led Investment Pact Proposal
Around 40 countries, including India and Turkey, have lodged objections to a China‑led Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) proposal at the WTO ministerial meeting. Proponents aim to adopt the framework as a plurilateral agreement at the MC14 in Cameroon, arguing...
Senegal Overstretch Saga Shadows Francophone Debt Diversion
The Iran‑related war in the Middle East has effectively halted new sovereign bond issuance in Francophone Sub‑Saharan Africa, leaving the region with only $6 billion of fresh issuance—half of last year’s pace. Credit spreads have surged to 375 basis points, and...
Asia Reunites Historically; U.S. Unprepared for New Reality
In 2011, fifteen years ago, I wrote an essay for @TWQgw on the reemergence of an interconnected "historical Asia" instead of the fragmented "Cold War Asia" anomaly to which Americans had grown accustomed. A fantastic essay in Swarajya on the...
Amazon Sees India as High-Growth Market, Expands Seller Incentives and Logistics Network: Report
Amazon is treating India as a long‑term growth market, expanding its zero‑referral‑fee program to cover roughly 125 million products. The company announced an additional $35 billion investment in India by 2030, on top of the $40 billion already spent. A new air...
Iran's Hormuz Threat Emerges as Top Market Risk
⚠️ Iran threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz is NOT just geopolitical noise. It’s the single biggest macro risk in the market right now. ~20% of global oil flows through that choke point. If it closes: • Oil spikes • Inflation rebounds • Risk...
Week of High-Stakes Events Deepens Economic Fragility
Here are the links to the weekly look at the global economy and markets—a discussion of a week characterized by both high-stakes developments and an increasingly fragile economic and financial outlook. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7441107748030693376/ https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-7d1?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true #economy #markets #middleeastwar
Polymarket Predicts 28% Chance Hormuz Reopens by April
Polymarket, a large prediction market, shows only a 28% chance that the Strait of Hormuz will open for normal traffic by the end of April. TRUMP & NETANYAHU’S WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COSTS. https://t.co/slk6gIZTUJ
Xi Pushes RMB as Global Reserve Amid U.S. Isolation
The U.S. is accumulating enemies faster than you can shake a stick. Chinese President Xi SEES AN OPENING. Xi has made a new push the renminbi to be a global reserve currency. https://t.co/qMpgMEp3Fo
Escalation Risks Iran Mining Hormuz, Deepening Humanitarian Crisis
At what point does this escalation by Trump-Netanyahu actually prompt Iran to mine the Straight of Hormuz... with these ships on it?! Then this humanitarian crisis goes from lock-down to existential pretty quickly.
Sachs Predicts US Loses Geopolitical Edge to China
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on current geopolitics: "In many ways, the US can not compete with China [in both manufacturing and diplomacy]... And I think we all feel it's not a temporary phenomenon but really the end of the...
Capturing Kharg Island Won’t Halt Iran’s Oil Flow
KHARG ISLAND — a thread: Trump has talked about taking Iran's Kharg Island for 40 years. The problem? Capturing it won't shut down Iran’s entire oil export system. And thus it won't lead to Hormuz re-opening fast enough. 🧵1/10 @Opinion FREE-TO-READ: https://t.co/ZOYtq3KESE https://t.co/xtLBqPShB6
IMF Urges China to Boost Consumption, Cut Subsidies
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz: "China can do more to increase consumption and domestic demand—especially for services—by boosting household incomes and reducing incentives for precautionary savings. That means shifting resources away from industrial subsidies and infrastructure." https://t.co/2Rvhxa5jsN
Satellite Shows Iran Exporting Oil with US Backing
Iran’s Kharg Island as seen **today** by the @CopernicusEU Sentinel-2 satellite. Iran is loading multiple tankers, exporting oil and making $$$ — now, with the help of the White House. The idea that Trump admin is using Iranian oil barrels...