Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Nigeria: Rutten - Predictability, Efficient Process Key to Unlocking Minerals Economy
The newly renamed Critical Minerals Financing Corporation (CMFC) Plc, led by veteran Lamon Rutten, announced its strategy to fund the entire minerals value chain in Nigeria, from exploration to downstream trading. Rutten says the company will use secured, asset‑backed financing to “valorise” African resources, aiming to raise GDP growth by roughly 2% per year. CMFC plans to start with Nigerian projects, then expand across Africa, leveraging multi‑commodity diversification and partnerships with development banks. The firm also seeks to eventually list investment products on capital markets, tapping the projected $400 bn annual market for energy‑transition minerals.
Forgive Me Dr. Alhajji, I Was Unfamiliar With Your Game
Dr. Anas Alhajji argues that the U.S. is a major winner from the Hormuz crisis, aligning with the November 2025 National Security Strategy that ties AI dominance to cheap, abundant energy. By disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas...
A Golden Opportunity for a Beleaguered WTO
The World Trade Organization’s 14th Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé, Cameroon, is poised to adopt the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement (IFDA) into its rulebook. IFDA seeks to streamline investment processes and improve access to capital for developing economies. The move...
Trump 5 Day Pause; Trump Claims Talks, Iran Denies; Iran Still Attacks & Hormuz Shut | Rapid Read 24 Mar...
President Trump instructed the Pentagon to suspend planned strikes on Iranian power and energy facilities for five days, citing ongoing diplomatic contacts. Iran publicly rejected the notion of negotiations and warned it would continue mining operations in the Gulf of...
Africa Needs to Fight for a Better Deal on World Trade Rules: It Should Lead the Charge on These 3...
African leaders are using the WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé to demand fairer trade rules, focusing on agriculture, e‑commerce and green industrialisation. They aim to curb subsidised imports, boost digital trade infrastructure and secure flexible carbon‑pricing mechanisms. The conference...
Dangote Refinery Boosts African Fuel Exports as Middle East Crisis Tightens Supply
Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery has dispatched 12 petroleum‑product cargoes to five African markets, positioning itself as a regional alternative amid soaring Middle East oil prices and supply shocks. The move comes as Nigeria grapples with domestic fuel price spikes and...
Trump Backs Down on Iran Threats, Oil Plunges 9% and US Stocks Rally
President Donald Trump announced a postponement of planned strikes on Iranian energy facilities, prompting a roughly 9% drop in crude prices. The de‑escalation sparked a relief rally on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones up 1.44% and the S&P 500...
PXH: Emerging Markets ETF With Solid Value, Overweight In China
Invesco’s PXH ETF provides diversified exposure to roughly 350 emerging‑market stocks using a fundamental size weighting. It trades at markedly lower valuation multiples than the benchmark iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) while delivering a 4 % yield. However, 58 % of...
Mild Bargain Hunting Lifts PSEi Amid Hopes of US Easing Middle East Tensions
The Philippine Stock Exchange index edged higher on March 24, gaining 37.02 points (0.63%) to close at 5,936.20, led by mining stocks as gold prices rose, while trading volume slipped to 634 million shares worth roughly $102 million. The rally was sparked by...
Trump's Brand Expands Across GCC Amid Iran Tensions
With the Iran conflict now in its 4th week, an important angle worth noting: President Trump’s family business (Trump Organization) has substantial licensing deals across the GCC - Trump Towers, hotels & golf resorts in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar & Oman,...
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait Push Energy Deals Despite War
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are pressing ahead with multibillion‑dollar energy transactions despite Iran’s recent attacks on regional oil and gas assets. Kuwait Petroleum aims to raise up to $7 billion by leasing part of its pipeline network, attracting private‑equity and infrastructure...
Why Africa Should Pursue China's Coastal-First Approach
African policymakers are urged to adopt a "coastal‑first" development strategy, mirroring China’s early focus on seaports and special economic zones. The article argues that concentrating investment in coastal hubs lowers trade costs, attracts foreign direct investment, and creates surplus revenues...
Investors Seek More Signs of Iran Thaw After Rally
The episode reviews Tuesday’s market outlook, focusing on how geopolitics—especially President Trump’s remarks about renewed U.S.-Iran talks and the still‑closed Strait of Hormuz—are driving oil prices and, in turn, equities, bonds, and the dollar. Crude’s recent dip below $88 per...
S. Korea, Mongolia Discuss Accelerating Economic Partnership Negotiations
South Korea and Mongolia are working to accelerate a stalled comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) that would deepen cooperation on critical minerals. Negotiations have been at an impasse since November 2024 over market‑opening concerns and rules of origin. Korean trade officials...
Unexpected Small Nations Accelerate Global Economic Convergence
Growth is accelerating, but not where most expect. Moldova is projected to lead global GDP per capita growth with +53% by 2030. Alongside countries like Guyana and Turkmenistan, emerging economies dominate the percentage rankings. But the more interesting signal is where speed meets scale. Countries...
Israel, Iran War: Goldman Sachs Slashes India Growth Forecast, Warns Currency Strain Will Force Rate Hike
Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2026 Indian growth outlook to 5.9%, down from a pre‑war 7% estimate, citing higher oil prices and prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank now projects inflation at 4.6% and expects the Reserve Bank...
GAC Shines at Egypt Auto Show with EMZOOM, Pioneering Expansion in North Africa
GAC used the Automorrow 2026‑Egypt International Motor Show to showcase its EMZOOM, EMPOW and GS4 MAX models, aligning its product lineup with Egypt’s rising demand for new‑energy vehicles. The Egyptian NEV market is expanding at a 12.03% compound annual growth rate,...
China Is Squeezing Southeast Asia
China’s Belt and Road and the China‑ASEAN FTA have made Southeast Asia its largest trading partner, with roughly $126 bn of Chinese investment over the past decade. Yet the region’s trade deficit with Beijing has swelled to about $140 bn in 2024...
Thanks For The Memory
President Donald Trump postponed a threatened strike on Iran, prompting a brief market rally, but analysts quickly shifted focus to the memory‑chip sector. AI‑driven demand for high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced DRAM has turned the traditionally cyclical memory market into...
Trump's 48‑Hour Hormuz Deadline Expires, He Pauses Strikes for Five Days
President Donald Trump’s 48‑hour ultimatum for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz has run out without compliance. He announced a five‑day suspension of planned attacks on Iranian energy sites, citing “very good and productive conversations,” as the closure...
Israeli Strikes Hit Beirut’s South, Capture Two Hezbollah Fighters Amid Iran-Israel War
Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, killing at least one civilian and capturing two Hezbollah operatives. The attacks, part of a broader Iran‑Israel war, have heightened regional tensions and sparked concerns in emerging‑market capital flows.
Why the Iran War Could Be a ‘Game-Changer’ for EVs – and China’s Car Industry
Rising oil prices sparked by the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran are prompting consumers worldwide to consider electric vehicles as a cost‑effective alternative. Analysts say the price shock could accelerate EV adoption, directly benefiting Chinese automakers who recently overtook Japan as...
Backed by IDB Invest, Portuaria Austral Strengthens Chile’s Port Infrastructure
IDB Invest is providing up to $14 million senior loan to Empresa Portuaria Austral to expand and modernize ports and ferry ramps in Chile’s Magallanes Region. The funding will upgrade the Arturo Prat and José Santos Mardones terminals, increasing berthing and cargo capacity. Improvements...
Iran’s Fragmented Leadership Clouds US Negotiation Prospects
Important nuance before assuming the stage is set for US-Iran negotiations: ❓ How unified is Iran’s top leadership at present — across the legislative branch, the military (especially the IRGC), and the religious establishment? ❓ Does Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf hold...
ETFs Dominate Trading, Fueling Shorting and Volatility
Citadel on Flows: - ETFs have accounted for ~35% of trading volume over the past three weeks, peaking at 47%, and setting a record streak above 35%. - This reflects active shorting via ETFs to reduce net exposure. - Levered end-of-day flows remain...
Baht Set to Fall Further Amid Mideast Wartime Pressures
Thailand’s baht is projected to weaken further, potentially reaching 33.5 per U.S. dollar this week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify. The dollar’s safe‑haven appeal and rising U.S. bond yields are bolstering its strength, while regional currencies slide...
Germany Seeks Global Gas Suppliers Beyond the US
German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche is pushing gas companies to diversify beyond the US 🇩🇪 🚢 Reiche said Germany is also pursuing agreements with Angola, Mexico, Canada and other suppliers worldwide https://t.co/YsSeBtLmvB https://t.co/RPngivFPz4
Trump's Iran Conflict Sends Shockwaves Through Global Markets
From Indian films to Italian wine, Trump’s Iran war ripples through the world economy https://t.co/nN8qmnNvwV via @Swatisays @LouKCurtis @mniquette https://t.co/oUjyH8kZ9O
Trump Claim of Productive Talks with Iran Greeted with Skepticism
President Trump announced a five‑day postponement of planned strikes on Iranian power infrastructure, saying recent talks with Tehran were “very good and productive.” Iran’s parliament speaker rejected the claim, stating no negotiations had taken place and accusing the United States...
African Metal Bans Threaten Chinese Battery Supply Investments
African export restrictions on battery metals are a blow to Chinese companies that have spent billions of dollars developing mines there to dominate supplies https://t.co/yoI9r6fpaN
Dollar Reserve Growth Didn't Fund US Deficit
I spend a lot of time tracking dollar reserve growth. Probably more time than anyone at the Fund. And I absolutely believe that the surge in reserve growth contributed to the rise in imbalances before the...
Carlyle’s Stavridis Says Investors Are Already Mapping Out Post-War Iran
Admiral James Stavridis, vice‑chairman of Carlyle, says investors are already mapping out opportunities in a post‑war Iran, citing a roughly two‑thirds chance that negotiations will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and revive oil trade. He likens Iran’s potential reconstruction to South...
Markets Underprice Prolonged Iran Conflict, Expect Sharp Correction
Month two. No de-escalation. More troops. Kharg Island occupation being planned. In my experience, markets that price short conflicts and get long ones reprice quickly and painfully. Kharg Island handles 90%+ of Iran's oil exports. The implicit assumption built into current market prices...
Parsi Explains Rial’s 12% Surge Amid US‑Israel Conflict
Johns Hopkins PhD Trita Parsi is on to something. What Parsi reports helps explain why the Iranian Rial has soared by 12% against the USD during the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran.
Authorities in Talks on US Tariffs and Finalising FTAs
Thai authorities are negotiating with the United States to address the 10 % global tariff and a Section 301 investigation that could trigger new duties, while preparing a written response by mid‑April. The U.S. tariff expires in July, intensifying the urgency of...
Europe and China Lead Global Imbalance Reassessment
The risk of an escalation in the Gulf seem reduced for at least a few days. So maybe there will be a bit of interest in my (somewhat novel) reevaluation of the relative contribution of Europe and China...
Jet Fuel Costs Double, Sparking Airline Crisis
Jet fuel prices have DOUBLED to over $200/barrel since the Iran war. Asian airlines and energy suppliers face MAJOR SHORTAGES. SIGNS OF A MAJOR CRISIS ARE APPEARING: Thousands of flights have already been canceled AIRLINES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO...
India in Talks with Global Partners for Safe Passage for Vessels Carrying Essential Commodities via Strait of Hormuz: PM
Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Parliament that India is actively negotiating with global partners to guarantee safe passage for vessels carrying oil, gas, fertilizers and other essential commodities through the Strait of Hormuz. The government is expanding its strategic petroleum...
Markets Underprice Prolonged Conflict Amid Escalating War
War is entering month 2. No de-escalation signals. More troops being deployed. Kharg Island occupation being planned. Markets priced a short conflict. They haven't priced a long one. $SPY https://t.co/Vbt33yVHPd
Prediction Markets Boost Ceasefire Odds to 55% by End‑April
While there is clear doubt around the market's confidence in the US-Iran having productive talks, the prediction markets have shown a jump (from 39% to 55%) in the probability of a ceasefire by April 30th. Still, that implies a further...
Moody’s Trims Philippine Growth Outlook to 4.9 Percent for 2026
Moody’s Analytics lowered its Philippine GDP outlook to 4.9% for 2026 and 5.2% for 2027, revising down from 5.1% and 5.4% respectively, while keeping the 2028 forecast at 5.3%. The new projections fall short of the government’s 5‑6% target for...
U.S. Backstop Rescues Nations Facing Currency Crises
It's amazing what getting backstopped by the U.S. can do for a nation with a currency crisis.
Strong Dollar, High Oil Trigger Emerging Market Crisis
India rupee: 94/USD. Rs 80,000 crore of foreign capital pulled from India in March alone. DXY near 100. Oil at $112. That combination is an emerging market wrecking ball. Few understand this. https://t.co/urDfdNX6YF
Economics for the Real World — a Provocative New Playbook, Plus India’s Growth Story
A newly released playbook titled "Economics for the Real World" argues that traditional macro models must be replaced with data‑driven, policy‑focused frameworks. The authors illustrate the approach with case studies, notably India’s recent economic surge, where GDP grew roughly 8%...
1990 Fed Warned of Dollar Risk After Kuwait Invasion
funny how things change. This is how Fed staff assessed the risks to dollar after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 https://t.co/XydwiGbPI5
Markets Accept Persistent Middle East Conflict If Hormuz Flows
A new geopolitical equilibrium could emerge in the Middle East that includes almost constant kinetic action and YET markets could be OK with that. The 1980 Iran-Iraq war is a good example of that. All that matters is whether ships...
China, Latin America: Partners Of Choice
China’s State Council released a December white paper outlining an expanded partnership with Latin America, moving beyond traditional trade in natural resources to strategic sectors such as AI, digital tech, renewable energy, and defense. The document builds on earlier 2008...
US‑China Trade War Threatens 2025 Economy; Cooperation Needed
NEW: The US and China put parts of the global economy at risk in 2025 through their trade war over critical minerals & technology. Here I explore a novel path for Washington and Beijing to 'cooperate' over *HOW* they reduce their...
DRC’s Power Demand Boom Underscores Need for Massive Energy Investment
Electricity consumption in the Democratic Republic of the Congo jumped 18.2% in 2024, outpacing a 0.4% dip in generation caused by a technical shutdown at the Inga II hydropower plant. The surge reflects expanding industrial activity, especially in the Maluku Special...
African Bunkering Hubs Gain as Ships Reroute Around the Cape
War in the Middle East and Houthi attacks have forced carriers to avoid the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, prompting a surge of vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This shift has dramatically increased demand for ship‑refuelling...