Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
And They’re Off! What Actually Changes as USMCA Talks Officially Begin
The Mexican Economy Ministry and the U.S. Trade Representative announced the formal launch of the joint review of the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement, set to begin on March 16. While Mexico and the United States have been holding informal talks for months, the official review introduces a structured timetable and a formal mechanism for evaluating the pact. The move follows a series of U.S. tariff threats against Mexico, adding political urgency to the process. Stakeholders can now expect regular, documented meetings that could lead to substantive amendments.
India's 20 Years of GDP Misestimation: New Evidence
A new working paper reveals that India’s GDP figures have been systematically misestimated over the past two decades. Growth from 2005 to 2011 was likely understated by roughly 1–1.5 percentage points, while the 2012‑2023 period appears overstated by about 1.5‑2...
AI, India, and the Future of Service-Led Growth
Raghuram Rajan argues that India’s service‑led growth model—built on software, consulting and urban services—remains resilient despite AI’s rise. He explains how services have become embedded in tradable goods, turning back‑office functions into Global Capability Centres that command a strong cost...
Top Links 1037 How Bad Is a Closure of the Straits? Revisiting THAT Summers Chart! The Brits and Dubai &...
Recent surveys reveal a majority of fund managers believe US technology companies are overinvesting in artificial intelligence. Analysts point to soaring R&D budgets and hiring spikes that outpace clear revenue prospects. The sentiment reflects growing skepticism that AI hype translates...
Export Routes Matter More than Production Amid US‑Iran War
As the US-Iran war goes on, focus on oil flow and not on oil production: What matters now is exports ex Strait of Hormuz, not well head output in KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Iraq. Yes, later is deteriorating, but former...
The Eclipse of the Islamic Republic
U.S. President Donald Trump has issued an unconditional demand that Iran surrender to end the joint U.S.-Israeli operation launched on Feb. 28, which targets Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. The demand follows Trump’s earlier endorsement of a Kurdish incursion into Iran...
Govt Eases FDI Norms for China, Other Countries Sharing Land Border with India: Sources
India has amended Press Note 3, easing foreign‑investment rules for all nations sharing a land border, including China. The change removes the mandatory pre‑approval requirement for investments from companies with shareholders in these countries, though approval remains required for any sector....
China’s Energy Defences Ease Sting of Iran War Instability
China is strengthening its energy security framework to offset volatility caused by the Iran‑related conflict. The government has expanded strategic petroleum reserves, accelerated domestic renewable projects, and secured new long‑term contracts with alternative suppliers. These moves aim to insulate the...
Public and Private Sector Key to Digital Realty in West Africa
Digital Realty inaugurated its first West African datacentre, ACR2, near Accra in November 2025, a 1.7 MW, 1,100 m² facility that builds on its earlier cable landing station ACR1. The launch follows the landing of Meta’s 2Africa subsea cable and reflects a broader...
.jpg&h=630&w=1200&q=100&v=4908ac7b80&c=1)
Opinion: Asia’s Growing Influence in Healthcare Private Equity
Raj Shah, head of healthcare at Nordic Capital, argues that Asia is becoming a pivotal arena for healthcare private equity. Demographic pressures, especially aging populations and rising middle‑class incomes, are creating a surge in demand for medical services. Investors, both...
China Prioritizes Iran's Energy Over Regime Politics
This is perhaps the best analysis I’ve seen so far offering an onshore Chinese perspective on Iran and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. “China’s disillusionment with Iran’s leaders means that Beijing is not inherently opposed to regime change. Because...
Skip Oil Frenzy; EM Differentiation Lifts Brazil, South Africa
Trump yesterday said war will be over soon. Oil tumbled. As I signaled over the weekend, better to steer clear of the frenzy around oil and focus on EM differentiation. That theme's only been traded for a few days and...
Thai Bourse Buoyant on Return of Foreign Investors
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) says foreign investors will likely return once geopolitical tensions ease, positioning Thailand as a regional safe‑haven. Since the Middle East conflict, the SET index fell about 10.5% but remains 8.5% higher year‑to‑date, keeping Thailand...
Middle East Strikes and Oil Surge Amplify Global Risks
As strikes shake the Middle East and oil prices soar, what are the global ramifications of the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran? 🎥 Tune in LIVE as @TimOBrien discusses with @JavierBlas and @MarcChampion1 Tuesday, March 10 @ 8:30 am EDT...
East-West Pipeline: Aramco's Final Buffer Against Hormuz
The comments from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on the East-West pipeline, the last (and only partial) line of defence of the oil market against the Strait of Hormuz disruption (other than a SPR release) For background, my @Opinion column from...
IDB Invest Finances Rincon Mining to Expand Lithium Production in Argentina
IDB Invest has joined a multi‑lender financing package worth up to $1.175 billion to expand Rio Tinto’s Rincón Mining lithium project in Salta, Argentina. The bank will provide a $100 million loan and technical assistance, while the International Finance Corporation, Export Finance...
China's Economic Surplus Outpaces Global GDP Share
One of my better charts -- shows China's surplus relative to global GDP. Has had a big impact I think ... https://t.co/xkL0hjBjP1
G7 Energy Ministers to Discuss Oil, LNG Amid SPR Debate
G7 energy ministers are scheduled to hold a video call (involving the IEA too) today to discuss the oil and LNG markets. Yesterday, G7 finance ministers flagged a potential use of the oil SPR. Japan and several other north East...
EU Enlargement: What's in It for European Businesses?
EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos urged European firms to invest in candidate countries, citing past enlargement’s boost to exports, supply chains and GDP. She emphasized reforms—independent courts, anti‑corruption, free media—as prerequisites for safe investment. New research from the Confederation of...
Xi's Poverty Victory May Be Unsustainable, Underestimated
FT: “The question is whether the victory that Xi boasted of is sustainable, or even borne out by reality, and whether China, the country that has lifted more people out of indigence than any other…is now underestimating the poverty.” @WillLangley96 https://t.co/G1ef9EpU5D
Oil Slides as Hormuz Transits Expected to Ease War Impact
*WTI OIL DROPS AS MUCH AS 10% TO $85.52/BBL AT START OF [Tuesday] TRADING *TRUMP SAYS IRAN WAR WILL END 'SOON' BUT NOT THIS WEEK Not to be callous ... but the market really cares about oil tankers moving through the Strait...
The Iran Crisis and the BRICS Dilemma
The Iran‑U.S. conflict is spilling into the Gulf, forcing BRICS to confront its first major geopolitical test since the 2024 expansion. While Russia and China back Tehran’s strategic autonomy, India adopts a cautious stance to protect its Chabahar‑linked trade interests....
Brazil's Market Near Historic Lows, Poised for Capital Influx
Brazil’s CAPE ratio is approaching one of the most undervalued levels in its history. The Brazilian equity market is nearly as cheap as it was at major historical bottoms — the early 2000s and the political crisis of 2015–16. This is a...
China’s Big Bet on Central Asia Is Paying Off
China’s investment strategy in Central Asia is moving beyond the debt‑trap stereotype, emphasizing joint ventures and infrastructure that fuel industrial growth. In 2025, Chinese foreign direct investment rose roughly 15% year‑on‑year, with Kazakhstan alone attracting about $12 billion in energy projects....
What to Expect From Vietnam’s Leadership Election Results
The episode breaks down Vietnam’s 14th National Party Congress, where To Lam was reaffirmed as General Secretary and an ambitious 10% annual GDP growth plan was set. Analyst Nate Fishler explains how the upcoming March National Assembly elections could further...
The Global Week Ahead
Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel as the Iran‑US‑Israel conflict intensifies, leaving the Strait of Hormuz gridlocked. G7 finance ministers are meeting to discuss a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves, while the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank...
From Infrastructure Investment to Expanded Market Access: China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Africa and the Implications for U.S. Trade...
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has propelled its trade with Africa to $348 billion in 2025, a 17.7% jump driven largely by a surge in Chinese exports and massive infrastructure‑focused loans. The initiative recently expanded zero‑tariff market access to all 53...
Iran War Pushes Rupiah Close to Historic Low
The United States‑Israeli war on Iran has driven the Indonesian rupiah to Rp 17,009 per dollar, flirting with its 1997‑1998 crisis low. Bloomberg data show the currency briefly breaching the Rp 17,000 psychological barrier before settling near Rp 16,950. The conflict has also...
Global Economy Faces More Violent, Frequent Shocks
Thank you, Andrew, Becky, and Joe for the conversation on Squawk Box this morning. FYI, here is one of the clips... https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/the-global-economy-is-subject-to-more-violent-and-frequent-shocks-says-mohamed-el-erian.html ... and here is the full interview: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-allianz-chief-economic-advisor-mohamed-el-erian.html #economy #markets @cnbc #oil #middleeastwar
New Pipeline Could Ease Hormuz Strait Oil Disruption
Read @JavierBlas on the oil pipeline that could ameliorate the closure of the Straight of Hormuz https://t.co/hfkrPgLpIy https://t.co/BIgHZhk6rA
Africa Gets Duty-Free Access to China – But Chinese Companies Win on Both Sides
Starting May 1, China will waive import duties on virtually all goods from every African nation except Eswatini, expanding a previous exemption for 33 least‑developed countries. The move, announced by President Xi at the African Union summit, is framed as...
China's PPI Negative Three Years, Signaling Persistent Deflation
China is in the grip of a DEFLATION. In February, its Producer Price Index (PPI) was NEGATIVE at -0.9%/yr. If that's not bad enough, China's PPI has been negative for 3 STRAIGHT YEARS. DEFLATION = AN ANEMIC MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH STORY. https://t.co/HLuNvjATSK
Brazilian Real Surges, Echoing Post‑Ukraine Shock
In the last two trading days, the Brazilian Real has outperformed every other EM currency. This parallels price action after Russia invaded Ukraine. The same terms of trade shock that took $/BRL to 4.50 then is happening again now. Prime...
Oil Companies Evacuate Staff From Iraq
International oil service firms Halliburton, KBR and SLB have evacuated foreign staff from southern Iraq as security deteriorates amid the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict. Iraqi crude output has slumped roughly 60%, falling to about 1.3 million barrels per day after key export routes...
Turkey's Economy Surged While Saudi and Iran Stagnated
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the economic performance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran were virtually identical. The only economy in the region that boomed was Turkey. A GRAPH IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS. https://t.co/1l6xvZVSll
Iran Conflict May Cement China’s Energy Dominance
How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance - Amid global oil and gas disruptions, China stands prepared for the electrostate era. https://t.co/XjVHuN91u9
Islamic Development Bank to Fund Uganda’s Standard Gauge Railway
The Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) is set to provide a €405 million concessional loan and co‑financing for Uganda’s first Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) phase, a 272 km electrified line linking Kampala to the Kenya border at Malaba. The €2.7 billion project, with a...
Ruto: Funds From Kenya Pipeline IPO Will Be Used to Expand JKIA
Kenya raised Sh106.3 billion by selling a 65 percent stake in Kenya Pipeline Company, creating a sizable pool of capital for infrastructure. President William Ruto announced that between Sh15 billion and Sh20 billion from the proceeds will seed the expansion of Jomo Kenyatta International...
Pre‑emptive Oil Purchases Could Offset Iran Bombing Price Spike
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of...
Can the US Afford Trump’s Iran War?
President Donald Trump has launched a direct military campaign against Iran despite a domestic economy plagued by rising unemployment and stubborn inflation. The article argues that the conflict will further erode public finances, adding new pressure on the federal budget....
Saudi Cuts Oil Output; Shipping Bottleneck, Not Supply
*SAUDI ARABIA STARTS OIL OUTPUT CUTS AS STORAGE FILLS UP We do not have a lack of supply of oil. We have a lack of supply of shipping
For a Country that Owns Ethiopia Airlines, EAC Is but a Sick Joke
The opinion piece argues that Ethiopia should be wary of joining the East African Community (EAC), citing systemic failures among current members. It highlights that several states have missed subscription payments, lack airspace integration, and prioritize arms spending over regional...
Rand Under Severe Pressure
The South African rand weakened to below R16.90 per US dollar, its lowest level since mid‑December, as oil prices surged more than 25% amid the expanding US‑Israeli conflict with Iran. Higher crude costs and heightened global risk aversion pressured the...
Oil Spikes: How High Is the Price of War?
Oil prices have surged sharply as the Middle East conflict intensifies, highlighted by Iran’s appointment of a new supreme leader. The spike has prompted an emergency G7 finance ministers meeting to discuss coordinated responses. In the UK, Prime Minister Sir...
Iran Conflict Could Increase Challenges for Emerging Market Sovereigns: Fitch
Fitch Ratings warns that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict could create new credit risks for emerging‑market sovereigns. Disruptions to Gulf oil supplies may push energy import costs higher, strengthening the US dollar and tightening debt markets, especially for speculative‑grade issuers. Countries...
China Emerges as War’s Biggest Winner, US Falters
No. China is the big winner. Putin will still lose in Ukraine. But Xi looks increasingly stable and sane to the world, as the US looks worse and worse, and weakens and distracts itself. China's EV industry stands to benefit...
G7 Ministers Call Emergency Meeting, Consider Oil Reserve Release
G7 finance ministers to hold emergency conference call at 12.30pm London time to discuss the impact of the US- -Iran war, Paris said in a statement. According to the Financial Times, several G7 nations favour a release of their Strategic Petroleum...
Vietnamese NA Helps Build Institutional Foundations for Long Term Development Canadian Researcher
Vietnam’s National Assembly is central to institutionalising development policies and strengthening the legal framework for long‑term growth, says York University researcher Joe Pateman. He highlights how recent legislation on economic management, investment and public administration has created a more stable...
EU Urged to Leverage Market for Concessions From Fragile China
1/6 SCMP: "The European Union has been urged by the EU’s official think tank to weaponise its giant market to draw concessions from China, whose economic fragility is making it increasingly reliant on rich export markets." https://t.co/haMEakKlUZ via @scmpnews
China's CPI Surges, Deflationary Trend Reverses
1/6 China's deflationary environment continues to improve, with high-than-expected numbers in February. CPI inflation was 1.3% year on year and 1.0% month on month. Month-on-month inflation has been positive since December and mostly positive since July. https://t.co/gpaBJ53yli