Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Sinocism Weekly - March 6, 2026
China’s annual Two Sessions opened with Premier Li presenting a modest Government Work Report that trims the GDP growth target to 4.5‑5% and signals limited fiscal stimulus. The report re‑affirms the push for technological self‑reliance and new quality productive forces, while acknowledging overcapacity and deflation pressures. Meanwhile, the US‑Israel strikes on Iran prompted Beijing to issue a strong diplomatic rebuke and, more importantly, to order top refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports amid energy‑security concerns. Additional headlines include Nvidia halting H200 chip production, a UK espionage scandal involving Labour ties, and continued PLA purges.
IDB Invest and Banco Bolivariano Launch Ecuador’s First Biodiversity Bond
IDB Invest has committed $50 million to Ecuador’s inaugural biodiversity bond, part of a $120 million issuance also backed by the International Finance Corporation and Dutch development bank FMO. The bond, issued through Banco Bolivariano, will fund projects under its Biodiversity Financing Framework,...
Investors Fear Missing Post‑War Rally More Than Downside
An interesting feature of this market, similar to what @kevinmuir has pointed out ... Is that most of my clients are less worried about the downside in stocks and EMFX ... and more worried about missing the rip when the...
China Really Thinks It Is Just Defending Itself
China’s Communist Party frames its far‑reaching global actions as defensive, even as it expands military capabilities, maritime claims and economic influence. This self‑perception stems from a blend of historic victimhood and a belief in inherent peacefulness, which turns defensive intent...
South Korea and the Philippines Expand Ties in Nuclear Energy and Critical Minerals
South Korean President Lee Jae‑myung visited the Philippines on March 3‑4, 2026, marking the 77th anniversary of diplomatic ties and signing ten memoranda of understanding across AI, cybersecurity, defense, and energy. The two leaders pledged deeper cooperation on critical minerals, leveraging...
Mumbai - Ahmedabad High-Speed Line Costs Rise by 83%
The Mumbai‑Ahmedabad high‑speed rail corridor’s budget has surged 83%, climbing to roughly Rs 2 trillion after land‑acquisition disputes inflated costs. Japan’s Official Development Assistance, which covered 81% of the original estimate, is unlikely to be extended, forcing India to tap its Consolidated...
Hajjar Chemali Interviewed on CNN Discussing the Growing Economic Collapse Inside Iran
In a recent CNN interview, political analyst Hajjar Chemali warned that Iran’s economy is spiraling toward collapse. He highlighted hyperinflation, a depreciating rial, and shrinking oil revenues as core drivers. Chemali also noted rising unemployment and mounting public unrest as...
Senegal Cuts Government Agencies to Save Cash Amid Debt Woes
Senegal announced the closure of 19 government agencies, eliminating roughly 1,000 public‑sector jobs. The move is projected to save at least 55 billion CFA francs over the next three years. The decision comes as the country's debt surged to 132% of...
Iran-Israel Clash May Trigger Worldwide Power Showdown
The Iran–Israel war is not just a regional conflict. It may be part of a much larger global escalation cycle. The latest analysis looks at the wider strategic picture and how the current war could evolve into a broader confrontation involving major...
Ukraine War Enters New Phase, Shaping Future Geopolitics
Four years into the war in Ukraine, the conflict has entered a new phase. In his latest analysis, David Murrin looks at the strategic direction of the war, the pressures shaping both sides, and what the next stage of the conflict...
Hong Kong Is Beijing’s New ‘Vanguard’ in the Contest for Financial Sovereignty
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan designates Hong Kong as the vanguard of its “strong financial nation” strategy, shifting the city from a neutral capital bridge to a core component of Beijing’s financial security architecture. The 2026‑27 Hong Kong budget formalizes this...
Digital Rupee vs Digital Euro: Which CBDC Is More Business-Friendly?
The article pits India’s Digital Rupee against the EU’s Digital Euro, evaluating which central bank digital currency (CBDC) best serves commercial users. It notes the Digital Rupee’s near‑real‑time settlement, open‑source APIs, and early integration with Indian e‑commerce giants, while the...
How the White House’s Plan B on Tariffs Can Give It All the Trade Leverage It Needs
The Supreme Court’s February 20 decision barred the president from imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ending the Trump administration’s primary trade‑leverage tool. Until that ruling, the administration had clinched eight reciprocal trade agreements and ten framework deals...
India and Canada Reset: Pragmatism Takes Precedence Over Recriminations
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s four‑day visit to India in late February marked a pragmatic reset in bilateral ties, delivering a suite of agreements across energy, AI, defense, space and critical minerals. The centerpiece is a $1.91 billion uranium supply contract...
How Will the Iran War Affect the Global Economy?
The Iran‑Hamas war is unlikely to dent global GDP, as the Gulf accounts for only 2‑3% of world output. However, the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly a quarter of seaborne oil and one‑fifth of LNG flow—poses a serious chokepoint for...
The War in Iran Comes to the United Nations
The latest Global Dispatches episode examines how the unfolding war in Iran is reshaping diplomatic activity at the United Nations. It also notes two fresh contenders entering the race to replace António Guterres as UN Secretary‑General. Cindy McCain’s departure from the...
Iran War Update: Hormuz Shut Down; 200 Tankers Trapped; Trump Demands VETO on Next Iran Leader | Rapid Read 6...
U.S. and Israeli forces intensified airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, prompting a wave of Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf energy assets. The Strait of Hormuz is now effectively closed, with traffic down 90‑94% and more than 200 tankers...
Friday Reading List - 6 March 2026
The author released a daily newsletter while traveling from Bogotá to the U.S., highlighting a $90 individual and $350 institutional subscription model. The edition curates a dense reading list covering Mexico’s cartel‑fuelled violence, U.S. military involvement in Ecuador, the geopolitical...
China’s Strategic Restraint in the Iran War
China is deliberately limiting its involvement in the Iran war while maintaining momentum on high‑level U.S.–China trade talks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer and Vice‑Premier He Lifeng are slated to meet in Paris in mid‑March ahead of a...
Reliance Diesel, Jet Fuel Ships Turn to Asia Instead of Europe Amid Iran War
Reliance Industries rerouted two fuel tankers—about 100,000 metric tons of diesel and 75,000 tons of jet fuel—from Europe to Asia as the Iran‑Israel conflict chokes supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian jet‑fuel margins surged to a record $80 a...
WisdomTree Launches India Earnings ETF
WisdomTree has introduced the WisdomTree India Earnings UCITS ETF, an earnings‑weighted fund that tracks the proprietary WisdomTree India Earnings Index. The ETF carries a 0.55% total expense ratio and is listed on Xetra, Borsa Italiana, SIX Swiss Exchange and the...
ASEAN–Japan Sustainable Tourism Initiative: Reimagining Travel for a New Era
In October 2023 ASEAN and Japan launched the ASEAN‑Japan Sustainable Tourism Initiative, a practical platform that showcases real projects ranging from community‑based tourism to low‑carbon travel. The effort moves beyond policy rhetoric, emphasizing knowledge exchange, job creation, ecosystem protection, and...
How to Deliver Results at Scale for People and Planet
Five years after its launch, Finance in Common (FiCS) now coordinates over 540 public development banks (PDBs) managing roughly $23 trillion, demonstrating that collective financing can support Sustainable Development Goals. The International Development Finance Club (IDFC) deepens this effort by aligning...
US-Israel-Iran War: JMIC Data Shows ‘Near-Total Temporary Pause in Routine Commercial Traffic’ Through Strait of Hormuz
JMIC data shows routine commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually stopped, with only two cargo vessels recorded in the past 24 hours versus the usual 138. The pause follows a U.S.–Israel strike on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory...
US Pushes Formal Venezuelan Critical Minerals Value Chain
US critical minerals talks in Caracas signal a push for a formal Venezuelan mining value chain. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/us-critical-minerals-supply-chain-in.html
Panama's Port Seizures Curb China's Regional Maritime Influence
While the ports seized by Panama weren't a direct military threat, they're strategically significant. Removing China from the equation makes Chinese activity in the region more difficult, especially as the U.S. Navy steps away from its role as global protector...
AI Begins to Take Root in Emerging Market Firms
AI adoption is gaining traction in emerging market firms, with roughly 40% reporting use of AI for internal processes or customer‑facing products. Digital‑first companies lead the wave, achieving a 64% adoption rate, while newer startups founded after 2015 exceed 50%...
Bolivia's Inflation Soars to 19.6%, Dollarization Needed
Bolivia's inflation remains out of control at 19.56%/yr. That is nearly 4x its August 2024 rate of 5.2%/yr. To kill inflation, Bolivia must dollarize. https://t.co/oK5i4Lims6
Asian Unemployment Surpasses Overall Rate in February
Outside of a handful of months in 2020 the Asian unemployment rate has been below the overall unemployment rate for the entirety of the last 20 years, but it popped above in February: https://t.co/i10DDosA0u
IMF Chief Says Ready to Act if Countries Crippled by Middle East Conflict Need Help — ‘We Recognise Our Responsibility’
The International Monetary Fund announced it is prepared to assist nations whose balance‑of‑payments are strained by the escalating Middle East conflict. Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that higher energy prices could lift inflation by 40 basis points and shave up...
Gulf Nations Reassess US Deals Amid Israel‑Iran Conflict
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are reviewing US contracts and future investment commitments. The US-Israeli war on Iran is putting investments at risk. WAR = COLLATERAL DAMAGE AND COSTS. https://t.co/YXzBzPwL7O
Kazakhstan Central Bank to Deploy $350M Into Crypto‑Linked Funds
NEW: Kazakhstan’s central bank is set to invest up to $350M from its reserves into the crypto sector. The strategy targets crypto-linked equities and funds, not direct purchases of digital assets. The program could start in April or May. https://t.co/RlEGwWKYzs
Why Somalia's Banks Must Consolidate
Somalia’s banking sector has rebounded over the past decade, quadrupling assets to $1.8 billion and expanding deposits to $1.43 billion, yet it remains highly fragmented with 13 small, under‑capitalised banks. Most institutions are privately owned, Sharia‑compliant and concentrated in urban centres, leaving...
IEA Chief Urges EU to Accelerate Clean Energy Transition
International Energy Agency executive-director Fatih Birol just spoke to journalists in Brussels after meeting with EU leaders. Here his main messages from the presser: https://t.co/uzZVrc46zi
Korea's Rare Mix: Booming Stocks, Huge Surplus, Weak Won
Korea is a super interesting case (even before the latest events in the Gulf). Surging current account surplus (10% of GDP), surging domestic stock market and a very weak currency are an unusual combination 1/
Precision-Guided Predictions: Intelligence Risk in Prediction Markets
The article warns that prediction markets such as Polymarket are becoming real‑time sensors for classified military intent, citing the 2024 Maduro removal bet, a 2026 Israeli insider‑trading indictment, and the failed DARPA Policy Analysis Market. It explains how contract spikes...
Trump‑Xi Summit Focuses on Beans, Boeings, Oil
So the agenda for the Trump-Xi summit will reduce to 'beans, Boeings and barrels (of oil)? 1/
This Week's Chart, Next Week's Markets
The market outlook for the coming week centers on four key data releases: Japan’s final Q4‑2024 GDP estimate on Sunday, the Baden‑Wurttemberg state election in Germany on Monday, U.S. February CPI on Wednesday, and the Core PCE price index for...
Will China Overplay Its Hand?
The Trump‑Xi summit scheduled for late‑2026 follows a fragile 2025 Busan truce that temporarily halted tariffs and export bans. While the pause eased immediate market stress, critical issues such as transshipment tariffs, rare‑earth and high‑end semiconductor controls remain unresolved. Chinese...
India & China Must-Win Markets on Rising Middle-Class Households: Reckitt Chief
Reckitt Benckiser’s CEO Kris Licht declared India and China must‑win markets as middle‑class households there now outnumber those in Europe and the United States combined. Emerging markets now represent about 42 % of Reckitt’s core net revenue, with India and China...
US Blocks India’s Currency Advantage, Mirrors China Policy
Why are we surprised by 👇? I wrote this nearly six years ago, in the context of why the US won’t allow India the same freedom of an undervalued currency that it accorded China: https://t.co/sZ45dDSSRv
RBI Dollar Sales Trigger Rupee's Biggest Asian Surge
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: After the rupee hit a record low, India’s central bank sold dollars. Then, the Rupee SURGED, with the biggest gain in Asia today. https://t.co/rzGC4rj8Kv
Sanctions and Financial Repression
The interview with Oleg Itskhoki examines how Russia employed financial repression in 2022 to weather the largest post‑war sanctions package. By banning cash withdrawals and obligating exporters to surrender foreign‑currency earnings, Moscow halted a ruble freefall and stabilized its fiscal...
Asian Development Bank Giving Central Asia Lots of Attention
The Asian Development Bank announced a $5.4 billion financing plan for Kazakhstan, a $1.1 billion package for Tajikistan, and a $2.5 billion commitment to Azerbaijan, all aimed at strengthening the Middle Corridor trade route. The bank also launched a technical assistance program to...
Median-Income Americans Can Afford Only Modest Homes
This chart shows the = home price an American household on a median income can afford. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/1bNlhKyjp5
How the Gulf Countries Are Responding to Iran’s Attacks
Iran’s recent drone and missile barrage has struck the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman, with more than 95% of projectiles intercepted by Gulf defenses. The attacks have shaken public confidence but quickly gave way to a resilient mood as...
In Trump’s Precarious World, NZ Will Need All the Middle-Sized Friends It Can Get
New Zealand faces a shifting global order as Donald Trump’s America‑first agenda threatens the rules‑based system the country has long relied on. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call for middle powers to devise practical “workarounds” highlights the urgency for smaller...
The Iran War Spills Beyond the Middle East
The U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran has rapidly expanded beyond the Middle East, affecting more than a dozen nations. Azerbaijan reported Iranian drones over its Nakhichevan exclave, while Tehran denied involvement and blamed Israel. A U.S. submarine torpedoed an Iranian warship...
GCC Banks Show Resilience Amid Regional Conflict
GCC banks have shown resilience as the region endures fresh hostilities between Israel, the United States and Iran. Central Bank of the UAE reported banking assets above AED 5.42 trillion with a 17 % capital adequacy ratio and 146.6 % liquidity coverage ratio, both...
The Renminbi Is Winning over Africa—But Can It Rival the Dollar?
The US dollar still dominates Africa’s trade, finance and debt, but China’s renminbi is gaining traction. African policymakers have launched the Pan‑African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) to enable local‑currency cross‑border payments, yet adoption remains modest. Since 2024, renminbi usage...