Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
The Abiding Question of the Iranian Bomb
On February 28, President Donald Trump ordered a sweeping military strike against Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and decapitated the regime’s senior leadership. The campaign quickly expanded to hit the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s missile forces, navy and even local police installations. Notably, U.S. Central Command’s target list omitted any Iranian nuclear facilities. The omission underscores a strategic vacuum as Washington scrambles for a coherent policy to address Tehran’s advancing nuclear program.
China to Inject 300 Billion Yuan Into State Banks, Deepen Reform of State Financial Firms
China announced a 300 billion yuan capital injection into state‑owned banks via a special treasury bond, coupled with deeper reforms of state financial firms. The move targets major lenders such as ICBC and Agricultural Bank of China to shore up capital...
Strong Demand, New Launches Drive Double-Digit Growth in Auto Wholesales in Feb: Report
India's auto industry recorded double‑digit wholesale growth in February 2026, driven by robust demand across all segments. Strong consumer sentiment after GST cuts and a wave of new model launches lifted volumes, especially in commercial‑vehicle and two‑wheeler categories. Tata Motors...
Asia Faces Modest Growth, Rising Defense, Soaring Energy Costs
On @CNBC in an hour to discuss Asia (China and India). China growth target is soft but same as many expected which is 4.5% to 5%. Defence spending rises officially +7% but many say real spending increase higher. The headlines are really about...
China Sets Historic Low Growth Target, Signaling Slower Era
China Signals New Era of Slower Economic Growth—Beijing sets historically low growth target of 4.5% to 5% @hannahmiao_ @TByGraceZhu @ByXiaoXiao https://t.co/o4Z2iYoVdw https://t.co/o4Z2iYoVdw
The US Is Unlikely to Curtail China’s Critical Minerals Dominance
The United States convened a critical‑minerals summit to curb China’s overwhelming role in battery and electric‑vehicle supply chains, but China still controls over 80 percent of global lithium‑ion battery production and 90 percent of grid‑scale storage. Washington has taken minority stakes in...
Israel, U.S. Target Iran's Leadership, Undermining Negotiations
Israel and the U.S. are steadily eliminating Iran’s top leadership, including figures capable of negotiating an end to the conflict... Join our Analyst Tier on Patreon to watch the full video ➡️ https://t.co/R47Ca3Pp6h #iranwar #military #geopolitics https://t.co/HS9nDRCPcB
What the War on Iran Means for Africa
The escalating U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is spilling over into Africa, where Iran has cemented security ties with Sahelian juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Western attention is being diverted, prompting the United States to scale back counter‑terrorism support while...
Ukrainian Strike Devastates Russian Navy in Novorossiysk
On the night of March 2, 2026, Ukrainian drones launched a strike on the Russian port of Novorossiysk in Krasnodar Krai, inflicting heavy damage on multiple Russian naval vessels. The attack ignited a fire that burned throughout the night, fueled...
Temnycky in Real Clear Defense on the Impact of Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion on US and European Security
Mark Temnycky argues that Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine has shattered the post‑Cold War security paradigm in Europe, forcing the United States and its allies to re‑arm and rethink deterrence strategies. He warns that the policy choices made by Washington,...
Fujairah Oil Facility Catches Fire From Drone Debris
On March 3, 2026, debris from a drone intercepted by UAE air‑defence systems ignited a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone. Authorities quickly contained the blaze, reporting no injuries and resuming normal operations within hours. The incident occurred as...
Fiscal Rules in Emerging Market Economies
The World Bank’s January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report finds that more than half of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) now operate under at least one fiscal rule, up from roughly 15 % in 2000. Fiscal rules are linked to medium‑term...
History Shows Most Nations Experience Mass Displacement—Stay Mobile
That is an old saying I learned in Hong Kong that is meant to convey that any place can become unsafe and that having the ability to go to other places is invaluable. It is a lesson from history that...
Metals Movers: Stainless Insights with ISSDA’s President
In this episode Deepika Singh talks with Rajamani Krishnamurthy, President of the Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISDA), about the rapid expansion of India’s stainless‑steel sector and the structural challenges it faces. Krishnamurthy stresses that the biggest hurdle is the prevailing...
Ganze Lawmaker Kazungu Dumps PAA for Ruto Party
Kenneth Kazungu, the Pamoja African Alliance (PAA) secretary general and Ganze MP, defected to President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) during a Kilifi event attended by senior government allies. The move reflects President Ruto’s push to consolidate Kenya Kwanza...
No Winners in War
The International Day for Disarmament and Non‑Proliferation Awareness coincides with a devastating Middle East conflict, highlighting that war leaves only survivors, not winners. Armed clashes destroy infrastructure, displace populations, and erode social trust, imposing costly reconstruction duties even on victors....
The Price of Impunity
The article argues that impunity—absence of credible consequences—undermines institutions and economic growth, especially in the Philippines. It cites economic theory and cross‑country data showing that weak rule of law depresses investment and fuels inequality. The piece details how political dynasties,...
Ensuring People’s Well-Being Amid Fears of War Escalation
Rising tensions between Iran and Israel have revived concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly one‑fifth of global oil shipments. Analysts outline three scenarios: a contained but prolonged missile exchange, a broader regional war...
What Would Winston Churchill Make of War with Iran?
Donald Trump invoked Winston Churchill to criticize Keir Starmer’s stance on Iran, suggesting the former would back a U.S.-Iran confrontation. The article argues Churchill’s legacy is far more nuanced: he combined hawkish rhetoric with strategic caution, championed the Anglo‑American “special...
Barangay Skilled Workers Registry Act Gets Penultimate House Nod
The Barangay Skilled Workers Registry Act (HB 7719) cleared its second reading in the House, mandating every barangay to maintain a voluntary, free registry of local skilled workers. Championed by Rep. Jolo Revilla, the bill seeks to make community‑level labor...
Kenya Airways Starts Repatriation Flights Amid Middle East Crisis
Kenya Airways announced two repatriation flights on March 4‑5, 2026, to transport Kenyan and United Arab Emirates citizens between Nairobi and Dubai. The flights are classified as emergency repatriations, not regular services, after Dubai International Airport approved the necessary slots. The...
US Economy's Quiet Bullish Turn Amid Bearish Sentiment
Everyone is getting increasingly bearish here, and while I understand the concern, the macro backdrop is improving a lot, especially in the US - that we can measure live with Nowcast IQ There is a very very underappreciated comeback in the...
Qatar LNG Shutdown Tightens Supply, Pressures Emerging Markets
Oil and gas price shocks hit emerging markets more than developed. Not to mention South Korea and Japan are major buyers (read: dependent). BOJ inflation-induced rate hike can be pulled forward from my Q3 projection to Q2. $USDJPY
Afghanistan and Pakistan Are Facing ‘Open War’. De-Escalation Is Needed
Escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have erupted into open war, with Pakistan conducting air strikes on Kabul, Kandahar and Bagram, and the Taliban responding by targeting Pakistani military sites. The conflict follows a surge in cross‑border attacks by groups...
Yield Rise Minimal Despite Growing Middle East Tensions
Mideastern commodity force majeures beginning to populate my X feed Western company evacuations of Mideastern countries beginning to populate my X feed Western investor consensus still heavily weighted to this being a short conflict. Yet 10y UST yields are only up to 4.08%?...
Europe Faces Inflation Shock Twice US Level
Right now, Europe is looking at an inflation shock roughly double that of the US ~ 2%pts
A Year without USAID: In Kenya, the Shock Reaches Herders and Hospitals
A year after the Trump administration’s stop‑work orders halted U.S. development assistance, Kenya is feeling the loss of roughly $470 million per year that USAID had funneled into its economy, 80 % of it earmarked for health. The abrupt funding gap coincides...
Emerging Markets Strength Offers Pullback Opportunity for Late Investors
investors who've missed the emerging markets $EEM absolute + relative strength are offered a (relative) pullback against... https://t.co/SjnvdgBiKB
MIHAN Project Generates 1.27 Lakh Jobs, 120 Firms Invest in Nagpur Hub
Maharashtra’s Multi‑Modal International Cargo Hub and Airport (MIHAN) in Nagpur has generated 127,225 jobs, according to IT Minister Ashish Shelar. The hub has attracted investment from 120 companies, with 90 already operating in the SEZ and non‑SEZ zones. The state government...
Day 5 Iran Update: Hormuz Shut Down 94%, US May Insure Ships & Escort Through Hormuz | Rapid Read 4...
On March 4, 2026 Israel’s air campaign struck Tehran, Qom and key Iranian military sites, including the first recorded air‑to‑air kill by an F‑35 against an Iranian jet. Iran retaliated with roughly 40 ballistic missiles aimed at U.S. bases in...
Why Are the US and Israel Framing the Ongoing Conflict as a Religious War?
U.S. and Israeli officials have increasingly framed the ongoing strikes against Iran in explicitly religious terms, invoking biblical prophecy and the concept of Armageddon. Civil‑rights group CAIR condemned the Pentagon’s rhetoric as dangerous and anti‑Muslim, while the Military Religious Freedom...
South Asian Fertilizer Output Slips Amid Qatar LNG Outage
Fertilizer manufacturers in South Asia are beginning to cut output due to an outage at Qatar’s LNG export plant ⚠️ 🇮🇳 Some Indian manufacturers started reducing production at urea plans 🇵🇰 Pakistan’s gas distributor declared FM on to fertiliser plants https://t.co/LUjKJcUg25
US Military in Ecuador - March 2026
U.S. Special Forces have deployed to Ecuador to conduct joint operations against designated terrorist groups. While the exact role remains unclear, the troops are believed to be primarily advisors but are authorized to engage in combat if necessary. The deployment...
ARQ Raises $70M To Expand Stablecoin Banking In Latin America
ARQ, formerly DolarApp, raised $70 million in a Series B led by Sequoia Capital and Founders Fund. The funding will fuel a rebrand, team expansion, and rollout of new financial products beyond its core stablecoin remittance service. With more than two million...
US Submarine Sank Iran’s Warship Off Sri Lanka Coast, Says Hegseth
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that a U.S. submarine fired a torpedo that sank the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena in international waters off Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan authorities recovered several bodies, reported at least 80 deaths and rescued 32...
Mexico’s Mining Always Got the Silver Spoon Treatment. Now It Must Reinvent Itself to Survive
Silver prices exploded from just over $20 an ounce in late 2024 to a peak of $120 in early 2026, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and soaring demand from solar and electric‑vehicle technologies. Mexico, the world’s largest silver producer, extracted roughly...
Indian Rupee Tumbles to a New Record Low Amid the US-Iran War. What's Next?
The Indian rupee fell to a new record low as the US‑Iran conflict sparked safe‑haven buying of the dollar and pushed oil prices higher. Higher oil costs and the realization that U.S. rate cuts may be delayed have lifted inflation...
Markets Consolidate Amid APAC Slide, Japan Threatens Intervention
Nervous consolidation is the main feature in the capital markets after Asia Pacific equities extended their slide. $USD is mostly softer but in yesterday's ranges. Japan's MOF threatened intervention. See https://t.co/24YmyiETAN https://t.co/XmEx257iS8
Vietnam Emerges as Global Economic Growth Leader: Harvard, S&P Research
Vietnam is projected to outpace all economies in GDP growth over the next decade, according to Harvard’s Growth Lab and S&P Global research. Manufacturing activity accelerated in February, with the PMI rising to 54.3, marking eight months of expansion and...
Iran After the War
U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that a more moderate, popular figure already embedded in Iran’s regime could lead Tehran after the conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that while the war may be protracted, it is unlikely to last...
More on China and the Middle East War
China has launched a high‑profile diplomatic campaign to halt the escalating Iran‑U.S./Israel war, calling for an immediate cease‑fire and a return to negotiations. Beijing emphasizes its flexible, interest‑based partnerships with Tehran rather than a binding alliance, underscoring that the Middle...
Khamenei’s Killing Is Neocolonialism’s Final Gambit
The United States and Israel carried out a drone strike that killed Iran’s spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, marking a rare state‑sanctioned assassination of a foreign head of state. The attack, framed as a response to Iran’s nuclear program, instead...
Indonesia’s Rating Outlook Takes Further Blow as Fitch Cuts View
Fitch Ratings lowered Indonesia's credit outlook to negative, citing rising policy uncertainty. The agency kept the long‑term foreign‑currency issuer default rating at BBB, an investment‑grade level. This follows Moody's February decision to downgrade the outlook amid concerns over governance under...
Geopolitics Threaten Chinese Firms' Access to Western Markets
What I don’t understand is the position of PRC companies. Do they want the headache of dealing with geopolitics? They’re competitive in their own right. If this goes on, Chinese products will be shut out of Western markets.
Best Nights VC Invests in Mad Monkey with EXS Capital
Best Nights VC, the venture arm of Jägermeister, has invested in socially‑responsible hostel chain Mad Monkey alongside lead investor EXS Capital. The deal supports Mad Monkey’s expansion across Southeast Asia and Australia, where it already delivers over one million bed‑nights to more...
Has the Ghanaian Banking Sector Turned the Corner?
Ghana's banking sector is stabilizing as macroeconomic recovery and sweeping reforms take hold. Inflation fell from a record 54.1% in 2022 to 5.4% by early 2026 and the cedi appreciated about 30% while the Bank of Ghana cut its policy...
Core, Satellite, and Structural Premiums: PensionDanmark’s Approach to Emerging Market Debt
PensionDanmark has shifted the bulk of its emerging market debt portfolio from external managers to an internal team, now overseeing most hard‑currency and local‑currency sovereign exposure. The fund employs a core‑satellite framework, using the internal core for broad beta and...
China’s Sovereign Debt Is Becoming a Strategic Alternative to US Treasuries: Economist
Chinese sovereign bonds are positioning themselves as a strategic alternative to US Treasuries, driven by investor demand for geopolitical hedges. Recent dollar‑denominated issuances in Hong Kong saw a 30‑times oversubscription, with coupon rates closely matching Treasury yields. Economist Xu Qiyuan...
Why Asia Is the Emerging Epicenter for Global Biopharmaceutical Progress
In this episode, Daniel Levine talks with Feng Nying Zhang, a partner at McKinsey Shanghai, about Asia’s rapid rise as a global hub for biopharmaceutical innovation, highlighted by a McKinsey report showing the region’s share of innovative drug pipelines jumping...
Vinhomes Green Paradise Pursues Global Smart City Certification
Vinhomes Green Paradise in Ho Chi Minh City has launched a Smart City Certification Project with Korea Management Association Consulting, the World Council on City Data and the Standardized Urban Metrics initiative. The development aims to become Vietnam’s first internationally...