Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
VinEnergo Launches Global Strategy with 10 GW Renewable Portfolio
VinEnergo, the Vietnamese renewable energy arm of Vingroup, unveiled a global expansion plan anchored by a secured 10 GW project portfolio across Europe and Asia. The company aims to scale its total capacity to 100 GW within three years, focusing on 50 GW in core markets such as North America, Northern Europe, the Mediterranean and Southeast Asia. Partnerships with GreenGo Energy, NKS Renewables and other local firms give VinEnergo over 80 % ownership and control of design, financing and operations. In‑house battery storage expertise is positioned to reduce schedule risk and improve project economics.
Geopolitical Instability Heightens Black Swan Scenario Concerns
Allianz’s latest Risk Barometer indicates that 51% of more than 3,000 executives view a geopolitically‑driven global supply‑chain paralysis as the most likely Black Swan event within five years, with a global internet outage close behind. The survey highlights rising concern...
Why Iran Isn’t Attacking America’s Bases in Turkey
Iran has launched strikes against U.S. bases in the Gulf States, citing their role in the U.S.-Israel campaign, yet it has refrained from hitting the two American installations in Turkey. Tehran views the Gulf nations as militarily weak and economically...
Thailand, South Korea Lead Asia’s Oil‑Shock Market Turmoil
In Asia, Thailand and South Korea have the highest GDP exposure to imported oil & so the violence today in Korea and Thai markets reflects fear how that will play out. Note that this is negative for Asia in general but...
Francophonie Summit to Boost Cambodia Tourism
Cambodia will host the Francophonie Summit in November, prompting tourism leaders to view the event as a catalyst for repositioning the country as a hub for trade, talent, and long‑stay visitors. Industry voices urge the government and private sector to...
Global Geopolitical Tensions Drive Capital Into Safe Havens:
Geopolitical tensions in 2026 have re‑emerged as a primary driver of global capital flows, prompting investors to seek defensive positions. Tens of billions of dollars have moved into money‑market funds, while traditional safe havens such as U.S. Treasuries, gold, and...
America and Israel’s War to Remake the Middle East
The United States and Israel launched a coordinated strike—codenamed Epic Fury and Rising Lion—marking the first fully integrated U.S.-Israeli combat operation against Iran. The joint effort combined American air power with Israeli intelligence and special‑operations assets, targeting Tehran’s nuclear and...
Congo-Kinshasa: Mineral Rivalry, Geopolitics and the Imperative of Peace in Eastern DR Congo
Eastern DR Congo’s eastern provinces sit atop lithium, gold, coltan and other critical minerals that power the global energy transition and digital economy. Rising demand has drawn a slate of international actors, from the United States to China, intensifying geopolitical...
Retail‑Heavy Korean Market Crashes, Triggers Circuit Breaker
*CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED AFTER S. KOREA'S KOSPI PLUNGES 8% *KOREA'S KOSPI EXTENDS DROP TO 10% AFTER TRADING RESUMES The chart shows that the South Korean KOSPI stock index has doubled since last August (green) and has already corrected 17% from Friday's high...
Divergent Chinese PMIs Suggest Resilient External Demand, but Soft Domestic Environment
China's official manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in February, matching a 33‑month low, while the private RatingDog index rose to 52.1, highlighting a split between domestic weakness and export‑driven resilience. Sub‑indices show production, new orders and employment contracting, even as...
China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI Climbs to 62.1 in February, Services PMI Rises to 56.7
China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI surged to 62.1 in February, up from 50.3 in January, while the Services PMI rose to 56.7, both beating market expectations. The strong readings signal a robust rebound in Chinese factory output and service activity. The...
Farm Worries Crop up as Fertiliser Companies Fear a Gas Crunch
India faces a looming gas crunch after Qatar halted LNG production, jeopardising the primary feedstock for urea manufacturing. The country currently holds only about two months of buffer stocks for urea and DAP, and prolonged shortages could force local plants...
Geopolitics Continues to Influence Demand From Canada to the US as Capacity Shifts Elsewhere
Canadian airlines are trimming U.S. leisure capacity and redirecting aircraft to Latin America and the Caribbean as geopolitical tensions and trade‑policy shifts dampen cross‑border demand. Air Canada signals that the decline may be bottoming out, while Porter Airlines adds new...
A Wartime Labour Market: The Case of Ukraine
Ukraine’s labor market has endured a massive shock since the February 2022 invasion, losing roughly a quarter of its pre‑war workforce due to displacement, mobilization and casualties. Despite a spike in unemployment above 20% in 2022, the rate fell to...
ISKP Attack in Kabul Punches Holes in Taliban Regime’s Claims
A suicide bomber from the Islamic State Khorasan Province struck a Chinese‑owned restaurant in Kabul on Jan. 19, killing seven and injuring dozens. The attack exposed the Taliban’s inability to guarantee security for foreign nationals, undermining its claims of a safe...
Toward New Political Model: Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Referendum
Kazakhstan will hold a March 15 referendum to adopt a new constitution, replacing the 1995 charter that anchored a strong presidential system. The draft revises more than 80 percent of existing law across 95 articles, aiming to modernize governance for a digital‑focused...
What's Next for Ukraine: The Labour Market
Ukraine has lost roughly a quarter of its civilian workforce since the 2022 invasion, with 3.5 million workers displaced, mobilised, or killed. Despite this shock, aggregate job‑matching efficiency declined only about 15%, a smaller drop than during the 2008 U.S. financial...
Oil Price Rise Might Push Peso Back to 59:$1
Rising crude prices, driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict, could push the Philippine peso past the 59 per‑dollar threshold. MUFG forecasts the PHP trading between 58.5 and 59.5 if oil steadies around $90 a barrel, while JP Morgan sees a modest global...
Reactions to Iran War; US-China; Two Sessions; DeepSeek and Qwen
China’s foreign ministry publicly condemned Israeli and U.S. military strikes against Iran, urging an immediate cease‑fire and emphasizing diplomatic solutions. Wang Yi’s call with Israel’s Gideon Sa’ar highlighted Beijing’s call for de‑escalation and protection of shipping lanes in the region....
Bitcoin Isn't for Everyone, Says Stafford Masie
The first 15 seconds are a major truth bomb: Bitcoin isn't for YOU... Don't miss this incredible interview with Stafford Masie : https://lnkd.in/gv-p2v8M
What Does Indonesia Get Out of the US-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade?
In February 2026 President Donald Trump and President Prabowo Subianto signed a U.S.-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade that obliges Jakarta to facilitate $10 billion of U.S. investment and import roughly $33 billion of American goods, mainly energy and agriculture. The deal was...
In Brief: Increasing Tensions Between China and Japan Create Risks for the Region
Tensions between China and Japan have escalated after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November statement linking Japan’s response to a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan. Japan’s recent electoral win has enabled a surge in defense spending, while China signals willingness...
WTO Meet: India Pushes Tech Transfer to Boost Developing Nations’ Trade
India has urged developed nations at the WTO ministerial to adopt concrete technology‑transfer measures that would help developing and least‑developed countries access advanced, environmentally‑sound inputs. The proposal highlights export controls on semiconductor chips and rare‑earth minerals, as well as rigid...
India-UK Trade Deal Faces Challenges Amid West Asia Conflict
India and the United Kingdom are set to activate the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) by early April, granting Indian exporters duty‑free access to 99% of the UK market. However, the ongoing West Asia conflict threatens to disrupt shipping...
NDAP Overhaul in Works to Handle Surge in Big Data
India’s National Data and Analytics Platform (NDAP) will undergo a major revamp as NITI Aayog seeks a private‑sector partner to redesign, operate and hand over the system. The upgrade aims to handle vastly larger data volumes, add advanced analytics and...
Gulf Interceptor Shortage Forces Costly Missile Reliance
The Gulf states are rapidly running out of interceptors. They have already burned through more than half their stockpile trying to stop low-cost Shahed drones, and soon they may have to ignore drones entirely to conserve missiles for ballistic threats. That...
#AtlanticDebrief – What’s in Store for the Three Seas Summit? | A Debrief From Amb. Romana Vlahutin
The Atlantic Council’s #AtlanticDebrief interview with Croatia’s Special Envoy Romana Vlahutin outlines the agenda for the 2026 Three Seas Summit in Dubrovnik. Senior Fellow Ian Brzezinski and Vlahutin discuss how the summit will focus on strategic connectivity, energy diversification, and...
How a Crisis over a Stockpile of Uranium Created an Opening for US Reengagement in Niger
The failed December 7, 2025 coup in Benin has left Niger’s military government even more isolated, sharpening a diplomatic opening for Washington. Niger’s junta seized roughly 1,000 tons of uranium yellowcake from French firm Orano, but legal rulings and transit obstacles have frozen...
What the Iran-US War Means for Asia
The Diplomat’s Asia Geopolitics podcast examined the U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran, framing it as a flashpoint that could reshape Asian strategic calculations. Hosts Ankit Panda and Catherine Putz highlighted how the conflict tests nuclear deterrence credibility and may inspire North...
IDB Invest Approves Financing for Genneia to Strengthen Argentina’s Energy Security
IDB Invest is committing up to $185 million to Genneia S.A. to develop four solar parks and 40 MW of battery storage across Argentina. The solar projects total 340 MW, with sites in Mendoza, San Juan and Buenos Aires, while the battery system will connect...
IDB Invest Approves Financing for Genneia to Strengthen Argentina’s Energy Security
IDB Invest is extending up to $185 million in financing to Argentine renewable leader Genneia to develop four solar parks and a 40 MW battery storage system. The solar projects total 340 MW across Mendoza, San Juan and Buenos Aires provinces, while the battery will...
Why Do Experts Think Emerging Markets Will Outperform?
Emerging market equities delivered a 33.6% return in 2025, the strongest since 2017, outpacing the MSCI World’s 21.1% gain. Analysts cite continued dollar weakness, lower valuations, and AI exposure as catalysts for further outperformance into 2026. Inflows are expected as...
Europe’s Pharma Trade with the US Remains Critical Despite Tariff Turmoil
U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs on EU imports have risen to 15% after a brief 10% measure, reviving trade tensions despite a prior MFN deal. Europe is pursuing alternative markets, notably a new EU‑India free‑trade agreement that could eliminate up to 11%...
Geopolitics Decoded: Investment Insights Ahead of Headlines
Thoughts? Follow @tallguytycoon - I break down geopolitical events and how they impact investments before the news does.
A Middle Powers Club Would Make the World More Dangerous
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos speech called on Canada, India, Australia and Japan to form a middle‑powers club as the liberal order strains under U.S. pressure. The proposal marks a shift toward collective diversification away from the United States...
Peru and the Limits of Alarmism About Chinese Investment
The Port of Chancay, inaugurated in 2024, is a joint COSCO‑Volcan venture financed by a $975 million Chinese loan. In its first ten months of operation, the port moved $1.88 billion in trade and generated $234 million in customs revenue, moving toward a...
Payment Friction Wins in Africa
African ecommerce still wrestles with deep‑rooted trust gaps, turning checkout into a conversational process often mediated through WhatsApp. Local platforms like Paystack, Flutterwave, and Egypt’s Fawry have succeeded by offering instant bank transfers, mobile‑money protocols such as STK Push, and cash‑at‑kiosk...
Sanctions Evasion, Statecraft, and the New Crypto Geography in the Asia-Pacific
The Asia‑Pacific is emerging as a pivotal arena where cryptocurrency intersects with sanctions enforcement and state strategy. Blockchain’s peer‑to‑peer settlement bypasses traditional banking chokepoints, allowing actors—from North Korean hackers to Russian entities—to launder stolen assets through mixers, cross‑chain bridges and...
Turkey’s Gas Diversification Strategy and Rising Share of LNG
Since Turkey’s 2016 energy policy, the country has transformed from a pipeline‑dependent gas importer to a diversified market anchored by rapid LNG expansion. Regasification capacity rose fivefold to 150 million cubic metres per day, driven by a fleet of FSRUs that...
State Department Urges All Americans to Exit MENA Region
US Department of State instructs all American civilians to leave the Middle East North Africa region.
Venezuela Leads, Five Nations Face Hyperinflation
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, as of March 1st, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 656.1%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 84.6%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 63.8%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 50.0%/yr https://t.co/FrHE7rOpRu
Welcome to the ‘Gray Zone’ − Home to Nefarious International Acts that Fall Short of Outright Conflict
The article defines the “gray zone” as a strategic space where states apply coercive actions that fall short of open warfare, leveraging ambiguity and deniability. It highlights how Russia, China, Iran and even the United States employ cyber intrusions, disinformation,...
Iran's Inflation Hits 87.2%, World’s Third‑Highest Rate
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 87.2%/yr. That's the world's THIRD HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/Ur4qSrFxia
Wider Term Premia Needed to Hedge Bond‑equity Shocks
Term premia should reflect the hedging qualities of government bonds. If we are going to keep getting negative supply shocks - which reduce equities and raise yields, creating a positive return correlation - term premia need to be a lot...
Day 4 Iran Update: Hormuz BLOCKADE Incoming: Reinsurers CANCEL All Gulf Coverage + Qatar LNG SHUT DOWN | Rapid Read...
On March 3, 2026, coordinated U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continued to degrade Iranian command, missile and naval infrastructure while collateral damage caused civilian casualties. Major marine reinsurers issued 72‑hour war‑risk cancellation notices for the Persian Gulf and adjacent waters, effective March 5,...
Sharp Dollar Rally Threatens Treasury Market Stability
The Dollar is rallying sharply. When this kind of Dollar strength happens, risk of disorderly market conditions and problems in the US Treasury market rise, because the highly leveraged basis trade can get hit as EM central banks sell their...
China Unveils Measures to Boost Tech Insurance in Push for Self-Reliance
China issued a 20‑point guideline to fast‑track a sci‑tech insurance system, positioning the sector as an economic shock absorber for innovation. The policy targets both flagship national projects and SMEs, creating a national coordination mechanism and dedicated risk‑reserve funds. It...
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Impacted, Still Open
Here is the latest 7-day rolling number from the Strait of Hormuz. Impacted? Yes. Closed? No. https://t.co/paTmzStHh6
India’s Growth Is Structural, Not Cyclical
India’s growth is shifting from cyclical consumption to a structural, investment‑led model, driven by a surge in public capital expenditure that rose from roughly ₹4.4 lakh crore in FY 19 to over ₹11 lakh crore in FY 25. The government has paired this spending with tax stability, massive...
The Rare Earths Race Risks Environmental Disaster
Rare earth elements are critical for clean‑energy technologies, but the geopolitical push to cut China’s dominance is driving extraction in fragile ecosystems such as the deep‑sea Pacific mud, Brazil’s Amazon, Greenland, Mongolia and Madagascar. Mining and processing produce massive toxic...