Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Disastrously, Mexico’s 2025 Investment Was OK
Mexico’s government hailed 2025 capital investment as reaching historic highs, but the underlying data tells a different story. Year‑over‑year growth was roughly 2%, a modest rise that barely nudges the long‑term trend upward. Critics argue the figures are underwhelming and fail to match the pace of regional competitors. The bar chart in the report shows a slow, almost flat trajectory, confirming that the touted “record” is more rhetorical than substantive.
_5.jpg)
Saudi Arabia Condemns 'Cowardly' Iranian Drone Attack on US Embassy in Riyadh
Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry condemned Iran’s drone strike on the U.S. embassy in Riyadh as “cowardly” and a breach of international law, warning that such attacks could heighten regional escalation. The drones caused a fire and minor damage but no...
West Asia Tensions May Cloud India’s Coffee Export Momentum
Indian coffee exports are accelerating, with January‑February shipments up 40% to 80,931 tonnes and total 2025 sales surpassing $2 billion. The West Asia and North Africa region, accounting for roughly 20% of exports, is now a key growth market after Europe....
The Dollar Is the Only Game in Town
The U.S. dollar is strengthening across major G10 pairs as the Middle East conflict fuels risk aversion, pushing the euro, yen, and sterling lower. Emerging market currencies such as the peso, yuan and real also slide, while equity markets suffer...
India’s Iron Dome: The Multi-Billion Dollar Shield
India is negotiating to acquire Israel’s Iron Dome and Iron Beam systems to plug a critical short‑range gap in its multi‑layered air‑defense architecture, known as Mission Sudarshan Chakra. The plan emphasizes sensor‑fusion, centralized command and cost‑effective interception of drones, rockets...
Kazakh Manufacturing Hit by Marked Fall and Elevated Inflationary Pressures in February, PMI Shows
Kazakhstan's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.1 in February, down from 49.8 in January, indicating sector contraction. The decline reflects weaker domestic demand, higher tax pressure from a January VAT increase, and firms cutting staff, purchases, and inventories. Despite the downturn,...
.jpg)
Iran Says Intelligence Services Know Location of Netanyahu
Iranian Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi announced that Iran’s intelligence services have "complete oversight" of U.S. and Israeli targets and can pinpoint the locations of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meetings on March 3. He accused the United States of serving Israel’s interests,...
War Risk Insurance Premiums for Ships Likely to Rise Amid West Asia Crisis: Experts
War‑risk insurance for vessels is set to rise sharply as insurers cancel coverage amid the West Asia conflict. Premiums for hull and cargo have jumped to about 1 % of cargo value, up from 0.25‑0.5 % previously. Shipping lines are rerouting around...
_3.jpg)
IAEA Confirms Damage to Iran's Natanz Nuclear Site Entrance, No Radiation Leak Detected
The International Atomic Energy Agency verified that recent strikes damaged the entrance buildings of Iran’s Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant, based on satellite imagery, but found no radiological release. The underground enrichment hall remains intact, limiting immediate safety concerns. Natanz, already...
Economic Implications of the Iran Attacks
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompted Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to announce a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital oil chokepoints. The move threatens to halt commercial traffic, immediately spiking crude prices and prompting insurers to...
When Businesses Are Free To Grow, Everyone Wins
The piece contrasts the Biden administration’s aggressive antitrust stance with the Trump administration’s pro‑merger agenda. It points to the blocked Spirit‑JetBlue and Amazon‑iRobot deals as regulatory missteps that resulted in bankruptcy and layoffs. It then highlights Kimberly‑Clark’s $48.7 billion acquisition of...
PH Looks Forward to South Korea's Continued Support for Infra Projects—Marcos
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. met South Korean President Lee Jae‑Myung in Manila, reaffirming Manila’s expectation of continued Korean support for flagship infrastructure works such as the new Dumaguete Airport, Samar Pacific Coastal Road, Jalaur River Multipurpose Project and Laguna Lakeshore...
Designing the Future
Philippine real estate is entering a new design era focused on regenerative, people‑centric environments that restore ecosystems and enhance wellbeing. Thought leaders highlight AI‑driven optimization, prefabricated construction, and material innovations such as engineered bamboo as key enablers. Mixed‑use, walkable neighborhoods...
China Rebounds to Become Asia’s Busiest Buyout Market – Deloitte
China has reclaimed its position as Asia’s busiest buyout market, according to Deloitte’s latest private‑equity report. A surge in domestic and regional fund activity offset a decline in Western capital, driving a 28% increase in deal volume year‑over‑year. The market...
IShares MSCI EM Swap UCITS ETF: BlackRock Lists Emerging Market Swap Instrument in London
BlackRock's iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Swap UCITS ETF launched in London on 23 February 2026, ticker ESWP, expanding its synthetic ETF suite. The fund tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets Index via unfunded total‑return swaps, offering a 0.14% TER, 4 basis...
India Starts Countervailing Duty Probe Against Chinese PVC Resins
India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies has opened a counter‑vailing duty investigation into imports of Chinese PVC resins after domestic producers filed complaints. The petitioners, including Chemplast Cuddalore Vinyls, DCM Shriram and DCW Ltd, claim Chinese manufacturers receive government subsidies that enable...
February Brings Another Sharp Inflation Rise in Turkey
Turkey's annual inflation rose to 31.5% in February, driven primarily by a 2.96% month‑on‑month CPI increase. Food prices surged, with annual food inflation at 36.5%, while core inflation eased to 29.5%, its lowest since late 2021. Producer‑price inflation remained around...
Implications of Prolonged Unrest in Iran for Pakistan
The United States and Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran after the February 27 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz and target regional airports. Iran’s resilient regime is now focused on defending its...
Safaricom's Ziidi Smashes Records on Nairobi Exchange
Safaricom’s Ziidi Trader, launched on the M‑Pay platform in early February, sparked a surge in Nairobi Securities Exchange activity, with daily equity trades climbing from under 8,000 to more than 25,000. The app gives roughly 38 million M‑Pay subscribers the ability...
China’s Undersea Great Wall Targets US Sub Supremacy
China is constructing a multi‑layered undersea warfare system, dubbed the "Underwater Great Wall," to counter U.S. submarine dominance and protect its nuclear deterrent. The People’s Liberation Army Navy now operates more than 60 submarines, including Shang III SSGNs with 24‑cell VLS...
What Are Biometric IDs? What Are the Risks?
Across Africa, governments are rolling out biometric digital ID systems to streamline access to voting, healthcare, education and social protection. A new report by the African Digital Rights Network, based on ten country case studies, finds millions excluded due to...
Trump Says Wars Can Be Fought ‘Forever’ With The U.S.’s ‘Virtually Unlimited’ Weapons Stockpiles
President Donald Trump asserted on Truth Social that the United States possesses a "virtually unlimited" supply of weapons, allowing it to fight wars indefinitely. He contrasted this claim with criticism of President Joe Biden for allegedly diverting resources to Ukraine....
Israel-Iran War to Discourage Investment Into India, Offset Trade Deal Positives: BMI
BMI warns that the Israel‑Iran conflict will increase policy uncertainty and deter foreign investment in India. The firm keeps its FY2026/27 GDP growth forecast at 7 % but flags geopolitical risks that could offset gains from new US and EU trade...
Prabowo’s Peacemaker Campaign Now Extends to Iran
Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto announced he is ready to travel to Tehran to mediate between Iran and the United States after the recent U.S.-Israel strikes. The foreign ministry framed the offer as a call for restraint, stopping short of condemning...
Taiwan Doesn’t Have to Choose
Taiwan, home to 23 million people, sits at the nexus of global trade routes and the semiconductor supply chain, making its stability a linchpin for worldwide commerce. The Kuomintang (KMT) argues that the island should not be forced to align exclusively...
AI-Driven Market Dispersion Hits Multi-Decade Highs
From The Wall Street Journal: “Market ‘dispersion’ is hitting levels not seen in decades as investors sort AI winners from losers.” (Recall that Dispersion — both within and across sectors and economies — is one of the three key themes I’ve...
Undervalued Sector Becomes Top Global Equity Hedge
The sector no one wanted… …is now the best pure global Equity hedge: *Diversification wins again? https://t.co/MveBoNSYU0
US, China Discuss Investment Revival Ahead of Trump’s Trip: Sources
U.S. and Chinese officials have begun talks to revive reciprocal investment ahead of President Donald Trump's scheduled visit to Beijing. Both sides are exploring structured joint ventures and licensing arrangements, with Beijing demanding stronger protection for its firms and Washington...
Yuan Gains Return Real Exchange Rate to 2024 Levels
The yuan's appreciation against the dollar over the last few months looks to have pulled China's real exchange rate back to its end 2024 levels (February is my estimate based on the CFETS index) 1/ https://t.co/KtxZcE3nT7
Low Tariffs Make New Trade Deals Marginal; Boost Domestic Demand
I very much agree with this. For most products and for most countries (the US is now an exception, China has been a bit of an exception) tariffs are already generally low, so the incremental impact of a classic free trade...
Reactions to the US-Israel Attack on Iran; Prepping for the Two Sessions; Science and Technology Insurance
The United States and Israel launched a strike against Iran, dominating global headlines as China prepares for its annual Two Sessions. Beijing’s response has been limited to diplomatic condemnations, mirroring its usual stance in such crises. Iranian crude accounts for...
Oil Shock Math Reveals Dwindling Exporter Surplus, Reshaping Trade
Some basic oil shock math, focusing on the impact on global trade ... Remember that we are starting from an unusually low surplus in the fuel exporting economies ... 1/ https://t.co/WIeQBspqCY
The Great Liquidation: Russia’s Great Imperial Retreat
Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine has drained its economic and military capacity, forcing a rapid retreat from peripheral outposts that once underpinned its global influence. Moscow’s refusal to aid Iran, the withdrawal from Syria’s Qamishli airport, and the erosion of...
Missiles Made in Ukraine Are Bringing Putin’s Invasion Home to Russia
Ukraine’s domestically produced FP‑5 Flamingo cruise missile achieved a landmark strike in February, hitting the Votkinsk missile‑production complex deep inside Russia. The missile, developed by startup Fire Point, boasts a claimed 3,000‑kilometre range and a payload of over one tonne,...
Investors Welcome Bradesco Healthcare Shakeup
Brazilian financial giant Bradesco announced it will consolidate all of its healthcare holdings into a single, publicly listed division. The restructuring creates a dedicated health platform that will house hospitals, insurance operations, and ancillary services under one corporate umbrella. Investors...
Fed More Likely to Stay Pat?
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, prompting the dollar index to climb and Treasury 10‑year yields to rise about nine basis points. Higher yields reflect tighter monetary expectations, while the 10‑year TIPS also edged up six...
PNG’s Rich Mineral Bounty Proves Irresistible for ASX Gold Players
Papua New Guinea’s underexplored yet high‑grade mineral endowment is drawing a wave of Australian‑listed miners. The government’s mining act mirrors Australia’s, and a well‑educated workforce eases project development. Recent transactions—including St Barbara’s $370 million sale of half its Simberi gold project to...
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Sulphur, Hikes African Copper Leaching Costs
The cost of leaching copper oxide ore in the Central African Copperbelt is about to get even more expensive. In the past few days a number of Middle Eastern Oil refineries have been attacked / closed. In addition, exports through...
Uzbekistan’s Afghanistan Push Accelerates
Uzbekistan has accelerated economic integration with Afghanistan, with 2025 bilateral trade reaching $1.5‑$1.68 billion—a 53% jump from the prior year and 2.5‑fold growth since 2021. Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev aims to lift trade to $5 billion, backed by a forthcoming Kabul...
PSEi Falls 2.79% as Middle East Tensions Spark Sell-Off
Philippine stocks tumbled on Monday as the PSEi slipped 2.79% to 6,426.83 points, driven by heightened US‑Iran tensions and fears of rising oil prices. The sell‑off was broad‑based, with the services sector falling 4.11% and foreign investors exiting with net...
Nedbank Wins Regulatory Approval To Take Majority Stake In Kenya’s NCBA
Nedbank has secured regulatory clearance to acquire a 66% controlling stake in Kenya’s NCBA for $855.5 million, marking one of the largest cross‑border banking deals in recent African history. The acquisition gives Nedbank access to NCBA’s $5.4 billion in assets, more than...
US Haven Status Threatened, yet Likely to Fade
'For now, though, this serves as another warning sign to US authorities that their haven status is in peril'. I don't think this is any more right now than it was a year ago in other circumstances, or before that....
War Undermines Plans, Makes Predictions Fragile
Profound. No plan is unchanged by war, and all predictions are rendered wafer thin. Bowen’s priceless insight.. https://t.co/h4FDPyZ6Y4
The Regional Reverberations of the U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran | CSIS
CSIS analyst Mona Yacoubian warns that recent joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered immediate Iranian missile and drone attacks across the Gulf, shutting airspace and threatening oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s retaliation targeted civilian infrastructure in...
Iran’s Missiles Wane, Drones Persist; Energy Targets Spark Crisis
Day 3 of the Iran War has seen Iran's missile launches declining, while drone attacks remain steady. Energy infrastructure is now being targeted, so an energy crisis is on everyone's mind. #crude #crudeoil #energy #geopolitics https://t.co/Y2ccPnnB22
Central Asia Watches, Worries, as Conflict Threatens to Engulf the Middle East
Central Asian governments, long silent during Iran's December protests, issued cautious statements after the United States and Israel launched a surprise strike on Iran. Their foreign ministries emphasized restraint, the UN Charter, and humanitarian concerns while deliberately omitting any attribution...
The Debt Reckoning: Rodrigo Valdés and Era Dabla-Norris
In this IMF podcast, Directors Rodrigo Valdés and Deputy Era Dabla‑Norris discuss the surge in global debt, now approaching 100% of GDP, and the challenges of translating fiscal policy into politically viable actions. They explain how pandemic‑driven spending, prolonged low...
Side Letter: Gulf Disruption
The Private Equity International (PEI) Awards 2025 honored firms that excelled in emerging markets, underscoring a shift toward Middle East opportunities. Global general partners (GPs) are now scrutinizing the Gulf’s evolving regulatory and economic landscape. Limited partners (LPs) report difficulty...
ISM Manufacturing Prices Misleading; Soft CPI Ahead
Some focus given to ISM Manufacturing Prices back in 70. In my opinion very misleading for now (and solely based on energy). But the jury is obviously out. I expect a couple of incredibly soft CPI reports coming up.
India’s Current Account Deficit Widens to $13.2 Billion in Q3FY26
India’s current account deficit (CAD) widened to $13.2 billion in Q3FY26, equivalent to 1.3% of GDP, up from $11.3 billion and 1.1% a year earlier. The increase was driven primarily by a larger merchandise trade deficit of $93.6 billion and higher net outflows...