Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
China Military Tense, Xi at Ease at Start of National People's Congress
At the opening of China’s National People’s Congress, PLA officers listened intently to the government work report, signalling renewed loyalty to the Party. The display comes as Xi Jinping presides over the session with a calm demeanor, despite a sweeping anti‑corruption campaign that has already removed several senior military figures. The crackdown underscores Xi’s determination to tighten civilian control over the armed forces. Observers view the ceremony as a barometer of political stability ahead of the new legislative term.
US Urges Oil Shift to Pressure China, Russia
"I know I said last April that 'as the debtor country, America has all the leverage v. China'...& I know we are actively trying to choke out both you AND Russia...but could you buy less oil from Russia & more...
Centre May Extend Sector & Sponsored Schemes Beyond April 1 Amid Ongoing Review
The Indian government is likely to let central sector and centrally‑sponsored schemes run in their existing format beyond April 1, as ministries have not finished a comprehensive review tied to the Sixteenth Finance Commission. The evaluation, which includes third‑party reports, aims...
Annual Inflation in Uzbekistan Ticks up 0.1pp to 7.3% in February
Uzbekistan’s annual inflation ticked up to 7.3% in February, a modest 0.1 percentage‑point rise from January and still 2.8 points below the 10.1% recorded a year earlier. Monthly inflation eased to 0.6% month‑on‑month, while core inflation rose to 0.5% month‑on‑month, pushing...
French Delegation Explores Investment Opportunities at Kalumbila Multi-Facility Economic Zone
A high‑level French embassy delegation toured Zambia’s Kalumbila Multi‑Facility Economic Zone to assess investment prospects in the country’s mining supply chain. Hosted by First Quantum Minerals, the visit highlighted the zone’s 5,000‑hectare footprint, fiscal incentives and ready infrastructure. Kalumbila MFEZ’s...
The Ousting of Peru’s President Points to a Deeper Crisis
Peru’s interim president José Jerí was censured and removed by Congress after just four months, amid ethical scandals, and succeeded by José María Balcázar. His ouster comes less than two months before a historic April 12 election featuring a record...
MoSPI to Launch New Surveys, Boost High-Frequency Economic Indicators: Saurabh Garg
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has completed base‑year revisions for the CPI and GDP and is now turning to high‑frequency economic indicators. A trial Index of Services Production (ISP) will be released in 2026, supported by a...
Not Going, Bananas: Ramzan Ripe Time for Most-Exported Fruit but Iran War a Spoiler
India’s banana exports, worth roughly ₹3,500 crore annually, are being hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The blockage has stranded 1,500–2,000 containers, valued at up to ₹200 crore, just as Maharashtra ramps up shipments for Ramzan demand across the...
New Modelling Shows Renewable Electricity Can Meet NZ’s Future Demand – without Importing Gas
New modelling indicates New Zealand can satisfy its projected electricity demand through 2030 using existing renewable projects, especially if offshore wind is added. Without offshore wind, hydro would fall short for about 474 hours a year, but offshore wind would keep...
The Drone Attrition Trap
The article warns that the United States is falling into a "drone attrition trap," where cheap Iranian‑made Shahed‑136 drones, priced around $20,000, force the U.S. and allies to expend multi‑million‑dollar Patriot and SM‑6 interceptors. Ukraine’s four‑year experience shows that a...
Enforce Sanctions to Prevent Russia From Benefitting in a Prolonged Iran Crisis
The United States and its allies are warning that the Iran‑Israel conflict could lift oil prices to $80‑plus per barrel, creating a lucrative window for Russia’s sanctioned oil stockpiles. Russia, facing dwindling revenues after years of sanctions, now eyes the...
Zelensky's Hometown Steel Giant Shuts Next Plant, Signals Deeper Industrial Woes
ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih announced the shutdown of its Foundry‑Mechanical Plant (LMZ) in Zelensky’s hometown, effective end‑May. The closure will displace more than 2,400 workers and underscores the cumulative strain on Ukraine’s metallurgy sector after four years of conflict. Escalating energy...
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Apple, Microsoft, Palantir Lead Wedbush Top Tech Picks Amid Iran Tensions
Wedbush Securities highlighted Apple, Microsoft, ServiceNow, Palantir and several cybersecurity firms as its top technology picks as geopolitical tensions with Iran rise. The analysts described these stocks as defensive, citing strong cash flows, AI and cloud capabilities, and exposure to...
Geopolitics Ignored by HFT, Active Management Becomes Vital
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
Iran War Day 6: Energy Crises, Regime Splits, Ukraine Links
The Iran War - Day 6: Energy Disruption, Regime Fragmentation, and Ukraine You are watching a full preview of Peter's coverage of the Iran War. Join our Analyst Tier on Patreon to access daily videos and analysis of...
Truth Is Everyone’s Responsibility
A memorandum of understanding was signed between leading Philippine news outlets and the Presidential Communications Office to tackle the surge of fake news. The article argues that disinformation has become a structural threat to democracy, eroding public trust and distorting...
US ISR Support to Ukraine Raises Escalation Risks
Last March, the New York Times wrote that the US was supplying detailed ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) to Ukraine so that Ukraine could more effectively kill Russian targets (with US-made weapons.) We appear to be approaching dangerous territory. https://t.co/aBoGhQCU2x
Legal Opinion Warns Development Banks May Violate Climate Law
An independent legal opinion warns that major multilateral development banks and their shareholder governments could be violating international climate law by financing fossil‑fuel projects. The analysis, authored by scholars Johanna Aleria P. Lorenzo and Jolene Lin, builds on the International...
Russia Shifts Gas to China, Threatens Europe Supply
September 2, 2025: Russia and China sign major new gas pipeline deal March 4, 2026: Putin says Russia may halt gas supplies to Europe https://t.co/kEjAnIqyrP
China's Lithium Lead Persists, but Supply Share Shrinks
China’s lithium supply dominance is hardly being “locked in.” Over the next decade their #1 position over demand will remain but their control over supply will diminish as assets in North America and non Chinese owned assets in South America...
US, China and Allies Pressure Ghana over Proposed Gold Royalty Hike
Ghana plans to replace its fixed 5% gold royalty with a sliding scale of 5‑12% tied to bullion prices, aiming to capture more revenue as gold hits record highs. A coordinated diplomatic push from the US, China, the UK, Canada,...
Assessing North Korea’s New Economic Five-Year Plan
North Korea’s Ninth Party Congress unveiled a five‑year plan focused on stabilization, consolidation and modest qualitative development rather than rapid growth. The agenda places the power sector at the core, linking factory construction, hospital building and agricultural mechanisation to reliable...
Middle East War Could Trigger Currency Shock Across Africa - Fitch
Fitch Solutions warns that a broader US‑Iran conflict could trigger a sharp currency shock across sub‑Saharan Africa. In a prolonged escalation, Brent crude is projected to trade between $110 and $130 per barrel, raising energy costs and disrupting shipping routes....
Captive Formations Accelerating Globally, Notably Rising for New Zealand and South American Firms – GILC
The 2026 Global Insurance Law Connect (GILC) report shows a sharp acceleration in captive insurance formations worldwide, driven by rising premiums and tightening capacity in the broader market. Growth is especially pronounced in New Zealand and across South American jurisdictions, where...
Jakarta Stock Exchange Posts 5% Canary Signal
One market that has shown a recent 5% canary signal with confirmation is Indonesia's Jakarta Stock Exchange. https://t.co/dls4RSmwO4
D2C Channels Growing Faster Than E-Commerce Marketplaces in India: Report
McKinsey’s latest report finds India’s direct‑to‑consumer (D2C) market, now worth $10‑11 billion, is set to explode to $55‑60 billion by 2030, growing at a 38% CAGR. This outpaces traditional e‑commerce marketplaces, whose sales are expected to reach only $100 billion with a 10‑12%...
What Makes America Strong?
In 2025 the United States recorded a negative net migration rate as legal immigration was sharply curtailed, a trend that economists warn will dampen economic growth. President Donald Trump has framed this demographic shift as part of a broader “Golden...
China’s Property Sinkhole: Housing Market Keeps Falling
China’s property market deepened its slump in February as new‑home prices in the 100 largest cities slipped 0.04%, the sharpest monthly decline since late 2022. Sales by the top 100 developers are down about 27% year‑over‑year, prompting firms to halt...
Is India Torpedoing Its Claims to Being a Net Security Provider in the IOR?
A U.S. nuclear submarine torpedoed the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena in international waters off Sri Lanka, killing dozens of sailors. The vessel had been a guest of the Indian Navy after participating in a fleet review in Visakhapatnam, yet New Delhi issued...
50 Million a Year Need Electricity Access to Reach Mission 300 Goal
Mission 300, a partnership led by the World Bank and African Development Bank, targets 300 million electricity connections in Africa by 2030. Since July 2023 the initiative has added about 44 million new connections, leaving a shortfall that requires roughly 50 million people to...
Asia Daily: March 5, 2026
Premier Li Qiang presented China’s 2026 government work report, targeting 4.5‑5% GDP growth, a 4% fiscal deficit and a 7% defence budget rise while emphasizing high‑tech self‑reliance. The report highlighted open‑source AI adoption, with firms like DeepSeek leading, as a...
S&P and Dow Hit Record Tightest Yearly Range
“This is the tightest range for this point of the year in the history of the S&P (going back to 1928), and tighter than any Dow range going back to 1896.” *Which way will it break? https://t.co/DQuNzpgPKG
US Pressures Ukraine to Spare Russian Energy Assets
The U.S. is pressuring Ukraine to avoid striking specific Russian energy infrastructure. As you could imagine, this all has to do with American economic interests. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/XGHjzTaHH8 #ukrainewar #militarystrike #geopolitics https://t.co/lB8qnpN0Kx
Inside EIB’s Critical Meetings, and USAID’s Controversial Shutdown
The European Investment Bank (EIB) held its annual meetings in Luxembourg, where President Nadia Calviño announced a $1 billion pledge for electrification projects across Africa and introduced a third Gender Action Plan, underscoring a renewed focus on health and gender equity....
Russia’s Limited Gains From the Middle East War
The war in the Middle East has tightened oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, creating a temporary vacuum that Russia hopes to exploit. While the conflict restricts exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran and other regional producers, Russia’s...
FPIs Net Buy 22,000 Cr Equity In
FPIs bought 22,000 cr in equity in Feb. (And uhem, they sold 17K cr. on Monday + Wednesday) https://t.co/bmXFAXJ1aZ
Global Economy Faces Inflation and Growth Test Amid Escalating Conflict in Iran - Goldman
Goldman Sachs warns that a temporary spike in crude to $100 a barrel could shave 0.4 percentage points off global GDP growth and lift headline inflation by up to 0.7 points. The firm’s baseline scenario still sees oil easing to...
West Asia Conflict Poses Near-Term Challenges to Indian Economy: RBI MPC Member
RBI monetary‑policy committee member Nagesh Kumar warned that the West Asia conflict creates near‑term headwinds for India, notably higher oil prices, export disruptions and reduced remittances. He stressed that inflation remains benign, with headline CPI at 1.3% in December 2025...
DoubleLine Highlights Emerging Market Opportunities Despite Middle East Tensions
DoubleLine Capital sees a "virtuous feedback loop" in emerging markets as a weakening U.S. dollar and ongoing central‑bank rate cuts create attractive local‑currency fixed‑income opportunities. While recent U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran sparked a sharp sell‑off in EM currencies and equities,...
Govt Prioritizes Stability, Market Unimpressed by Incremental Targets
This is a useful table, and shows the revealed preference by the govt for stability, and to keep the current policy structure essentially on track. I don’t think many or any thought different. That said, there are a few things...
The Bay of Bengal Flank: India’s Three-Front Dilemma and Its Implications for Taiwan
India’s strategic calculus is being reshaped as Bangladesh abandons Indian defence deals and pivots toward China and Pakistan, creating a potential three‑front dilemma for New Delhi. The shift follows the 2024 ouster of Bangladesh’s long‑time prime minister, sparking public anti‑India sentiment...
Workshop Calls for Natural Capital to Anchor Vietnam S Economic Policy
The Finance for Nature workshop in Hanoi gathered policymakers, economists and finance leaders to push natural‑capital accounting into Vietnam’s macroeconomic framework. Organisers unveiled a report that applies the Integrated Economic‑Environmental Modelling (IEEM) and GTAP‑InVEST tools to embed ecosystem services in...
Home Advantage: Kenyan Banks Outperform Foreign-Owned Competitors
Kenyan‑owned banks posted strong H1 2025 earnings, with I&M up 36%, Equity 17% and NCBA 12.6%, while foreign‑owned Standard Chartered and Stanbic saw profits fall 21% and 9% respectively. Moody’s kept a stable outlook for Kenya’s big three banks despite...
Fighting an Economic War Without Fused Intelligence
The United States is fighting an economic war while its intelligence and business sectors operate in silos. Adversaries exploit supply‑chain, capital‑flow, and technology dependencies, yet private‑sector leaders lack access to classified intelligence that could reshape risk assessments. The author argues...
Bac Ninh Consolidates Position at Top of Vietnam's FDI Landscape
Bac Ninh Province recorded over US$18.6 billion in registered foreign direct investment in 2025, placing it among Vietnam’s top two FDI destinations. Major infrastructure projects—including the accelerated Ring Road 4 corridor and a new National Highway 3 overpass—have dramatically improved connectivity to Hanoi,...
1,000 Kg of Venezuelan Gold Headed for US Markets? Report Reveals Massive Deal Brokered by Trump Officials
Venezuelan state miner Minerven has signed a deal with the Trump administration to supply between 650 and 1,000 kg of 98 % pure gold dore bars to commodities trader Trafigura for the U.S. market. The agreement follows President Donald Trump’s recent removal...
Government, Industry Launch Network to Help Australian Exporters Diversify
The Australian Government and industry groups launched the Trade Diversification Network (TDN) on 4 March as part of the $50 million Accessing New Markets Initiative. The network brings together 40 national peak bodies to provide coordinated market‑intelligence, trade services and sector‑specific support...
India VIX Shows Iran War Risk Already Priced In
Have we discounted the IRAN war risk in markets? Using the India VIX to consider the idea that the worst of our fears may already be in the market https://t.co/LzpXAJuIYv https://t.co/H4WBbxWV2k
The Coming Showdown Over Cuba
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a national emergency aimed at Cuba, accusing the island of hosting spies and terrorists and threatening tariffs on any nation supplying oil. Following the declaration, U.S. special forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, intensifying regional...