Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Hope and Disappointment in India
India’s demographic and economic potential remains strong, but political dysfunction and empty rhetoric are eroding its long‑term outlook. The country suffers from unreliable statistics, a slowdown in innovation, and worsening air quality, all signs of institutional decay. Author Kaushik Basu’s recent travels across India highlight both inspiring moments and deep systemic challenges. Sustained, coordinated national action is presented as the only path to reverse these trends.
Fears that Basel III Regulations Could Penalise Africa
The Basel III regulatory package, delayed to a full 2027 rollout, tightens capital quality, leverage and liquidity requirements for banks worldwide. African banks risk higher capital costs because their sovereign debt is risk‑weighted more heavily, potentially limiting credit to the...
Africa’s MTN Group to Acquire IHS Holding for $6.2 Billion in Cash
MTN Group announced a $6.2 billion cash acquisition of IHS Holding, offering $8.50 per share—a 2.53% premium to the prior close. The deal will be funded by $1.1 billion of MTN cash, $1.1 billion from IHS’s balance sheet, and a rollover of existing...
Zambia’s Copper Industry Expands Amid Rising Global Demand and Investment
Global demand for copper, driven by AI, renewable energy and electric vehicles, is spurring a rapid expansion of Zambia’s mining sector. Since 2022, more than $12 billion has been poured into the industry, lifting 2024 output by roughly eight percent to...
Peace Talks Moved to Geneva
The episode reviews the latest developments in the Ukraine‑Russia conflict, focusing on the relocation of the third round of peace talks to Geneva. Kyiv cautions against overly optimistic expectations, noting the limited progress in previous rounds and the complex diplomatic...
Financing the Global South’s Infrastructure Boom
Private participation in infrastructure across the Global South reached $100 billion in 2024, a 20% rise over the previous five‑year average. The article highlights India’s PPP surge, which drove infrastructure credit to over 15% of bank lending but also triggered an...
Thailand’s Royalist Right Turn
The royalist‑conservative Bhumjaithai Party has captured a decisive parliamentary majority, reinforced by the military and judiciary, positioning it to govern Thailand for the next four years. Its victory ends a 26‑year period marked by street protests, coups, and judicial interventions,...
Sarbananda Sonowal Hails PM Modi’s Trade Push, Calls It Break From Congress Era
Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trade agenda, saying it marks a decisive break from the Congress era of policy paralysis. He highlighted nine free‑trade agreements signed since 2014 that give India preferential access to 38 developed economies and...
As Rwanda’s Mineral Exports Surge, Trade Deficit Narrows
Rwanda’s mineral exports jumped 46.2% in 2025, driven by soaring tin, tungsten and tantalum prices and increased mechanised mining. The surge helped narrow the country’s trade deficit from $3 billion to $2.7 billion, with raw tin even achieving a positive balance with...
Somalia Cleared to Adopt EAC E-Passport, Envoy Says
Somalia has been granted official authorization to adopt and print the East African Community (EAC) e‑Passport, a key step in its regional integration. The decision was handed to Somalia’s Minister of Internal Security and the Director‑General of Immigration in Dar...
Despite Reset in India–US Relations, New Delhi Retains Commitment to Strategic Hedging
India and the United States announced a trade deal that lowers Indian export tariffs from 25% to 18% and removes the extra 25% levy on Russian crude. In return, New Delhi has pledged to buy $500 billion worth of U.S. goods,...
NHAI Gets Rs 12,357 Cr Towards Monetisation for 2025-26; Lower than the Budgeted and Revised Estimate of Rs 15,000 Cr
India's National Highways Authority (NHAI) has been allocated Rs 12,357 crore for FY 2025‑26 to monetize highway assets, falling short of the Rs 15,000 crore budgeted amount. The agency plans to monetize 24 road assets covering 1,472 km, with Maharashtra receiving the highest number of projects....
Africa’s Trade Blocs Were Designed to Unite Continent: Four Reasons They Haven’t Delivered
The African Union’s 2019 African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was built on eight regional economic communities, yet integration progress remains sluggish. A new analysis identifies four core obstacles: lingering colonial dependencies, the predominance of informal cross‑border trade, the tendency...
Indian Rice Exporter Seals 5,000-Tonne US Deal: IREF
A member of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF) has secured a contract to ship 5,000 tonnes of basmati rice to a United States buyer. The agreement arrives shortly after the India‑US trade pact lowered tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to...
India’s Data Centre Boom Raises Concerns over Power Supply and Grid Capacity
India’s data‑centre market is expanding rapidly, with annual capacity additions of about 0.5 GW. Today, data centres already draw up to 15% of local grid capacity and could consume 30‑35% by 2030. Roughly one‑third of the power comes from renewable PPAs,...
The Politics of Interpretation: Who Governs the Korean DMZ?
The United Nations Command (UNC) and South Korea are locked in a legal dispute over who can approve access to the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). While the 1953 Armistice assigns entry authority to the UNC commander, Seoul’s National Assembly is...
New U.S.–AU Infrastructure Working Group Could Thrive With Strong Values-Based Safeguards
U.S. Deputy Secretary Christopher Landau and African Union Chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf announced a Strategic Infrastructure and Investment Working Group to deepen U.S.–AU cooperation on trade‑enabling projects. The initiative marks a shift from bilateral deals toward a continent‑wide partnership, but...
Shahpurkandi Dam Set for Commissioning, Ravi Waters to Boost Irrigation in Jammu and Punjab
India’s Shahpurkandi Dam is slated for commissioning by March 31, 2026, enabling the diversion of surplus Ravi River flows that previously entered Pakistan. The project will channel this water into irrigation schemes across Jammu’s Kathua and Samba districts and Punjab’s drought‑prone...
Five Ways AI Impacts Geopolitical Risk in Latin America
The episode outlines five ways AI will reshape geopolitical risk in Latin America: massive middle‑class job disruption as AI replaces outsourced service roles; a new extractive dependence on foreign data‑center investments that may boost the economy but keep profits abroad;...
America Needs to Get Creative on Hong Kong
The United States condemned the 20‑year sentence handed to Hong Kong activist Jimmy Lai but its traditional punitive toolkit—sanctions and revoking Hong Kong’s special trade status—has done little to restore the city’s autonomy. Lawmakers are now proposing legislation that could...
Conflicting Policies, Confused Investors, and the Weak Dollar
The United States continues to dominate global growth, driven by an AI-fueled expansion, yet its flagship currency is unusually weak. Markets are now pricing U.S. policy uncertainty on par with economies that lack a reserve currency. Conflicting fiscal and monetary...
AU Assembly Endorses AUDA‑NEPAD Priorities, Appoints New HSGOC Chair and Renews CEO Mandate
The African Union General Assembly endorsed AUDA‑NEPAD’s priority agenda for the acceleration phase of the Second Ten‑Year Implementation Plan of Agenda 2063, reaffirming its mandate across human capital, agriculture, climate resilience, health, industrialisation and infrastructure. It appointed Angola President João Manuel...
The European Union as Emerging Geopolitical Player in the Arctic
In this episode, Dr. Eric Paglia talks with Dr. Andreas Raspotnik, a senior researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, about the European Union’s rising geopolitical role in the Arctic. They examine how the EU’s response to the recent Greenland crisis...
South Africa’s Unemployment Rate Eases to 31.4%
South Africa's overall unemployment rate slipped to 31.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 31.9% in the prior quarter and marking a second consecutive decline after a peak of 33.2% a year earlier. Employment rose by 44,000, reaching...
India Seeks New Steel Export Markets in Middle East and Asia to Offset EU Carbon Tax Impact: Report
India, the world’s second‑largest crude‑steel producer, is pivoting toward the Middle East and Asian markets to cushion the impact of the European Union’s new carbon border adjustment tax. Roughly two‑thirds of its steel exports currently flow to Europe, where the...
Fund Managers Alarmed over Corporate Spending Even as Optimism at Five-Year High
Fund managers are at a five‑year high of bullishness, yet a record share warn that corporate America is overspending on capital expenditures amid uncertain returns. In Bank of America’s February survey of 162 managers, cash balances rose in February, signaling...
Why Can’t Mexico’s Left-Wing Government Pass a Pro-Worker Bill?
The episode examines Mexico’s stalled proposal to shorten the legal workweek from 48 to 40 hours and add an extra day off, a reform that seems at odds with the Morena‑led coalition’s track record of swift, sweeping legislation. Despite holding...
Equal‑Weight S&P Outperforms Only Amid Major Market Shifts
Fascinating study from Bloomberg: S&P Equal Weight outperformance was extremely rare historically: 1999-2002 Dotcom 2009 Post GFC 2020-2021 Covid “Those cases accompanied major shifts in the market.” “Equal-weight S&P managed to maintain some outperformance 250 days later.” “The big question: whether this is the start of an...
Thai Banks’ Bad Loans Dip Slightly
Thai banks’ non‑performing loan ratio slipped to 2.84% at December, down from 2.94% in September. Bank lending fell 1.1% in Q4 2025, marking the sixth straight quarter of contraction, driven by tighter credit to SMEs and consumers. Household debt remains...
Nearshore Hiring Moves Beyond Engineering as US Firms Place Revenue Teams in Latin America
U.S. companies are expanding nearshore hiring beyond software engineering to include sales, customer success, and support teams in Latin America. The customer‑success market is projected to reach $16.5 billion by 2033, while bilingual support job postings have risen 50% year‑over‑year. Talent...
India’s Next Big Power Move Is Set to Unfold in the Bay of Bengal
India’s National Green Tribunal has approved the Rs 90,000‑crore Great Nicobar mega‑infrastructure project, clearing the way for a new International Container Transshipment Port at Galethea Bay. The first phase, slated for 2028, will handle over 4 million TEUs annually, with full capacity...
Kenya’s Arc Ride Secures $5 Million IFC Commitment for Regional Expansion
Kenyan e‑mobility startup Arc Ride has secured a $5 million equity commitment from the International Finance Corporation to fuel its Series A round and regional rollout. The funding will accelerate the deployment of battery‑swapping stations across East Africa, complementing earlier debt deals...
Will Indonesia’s US$762 Million Ramadan Stimulus Be a ‘Positive’ Boost for the Economy?
Indonesia has unveiled a US$762 million, 12.83 trillion‑rupiah stimulus aimed at bolstering Ramadan consumption. The package includes transport fare discounts of up to 30%, full‑fare ferry rides, and food parcels for low‑income families. Officials hope the measures will sustain mobility and purchasing...
STAT+: As China’s Drug Industry Races Ahead, Its GLP-1 Race Is Accelerating Too
China’s pharmaceutical sector is rapidly expanding, now generating its own GLP‑1 drugs alongside imported treatments. Novo Nordisk reported a 5% decline in Ozempic sales in China last year, the first dip since its 2021 launch, while sales grew elsewhere. The...
Private Credit: Poised For Growth
Asia‑Pacific private credit is entering a rapid expansion phase, with issuance projected to rise from $59 billion in 2024 to $92 billion by 2027. Industry leaders such as SC Lowy and Moody’s cite digitalization, the energy transition, and infrastructure needs as primary catalysts,...
Cash Craze: Currency in Circulation Touches Record Rs 40 Lakh Crore
India's currency in circulation reached a record Rs 40 lakh crore in January 2026, up 11.1% year‑on‑year, while the cash‑to‑GDP ratio slipped to about 11.2%, down from a pandemic peak of 14.4%. Over the past decade, cash holdings have risen from Rs 11.8 lakh crore in...
Neoliberalism Crafts Rules to Shield Global Capitalism From Democracy
I just finished Quinn Slobodian's fascinating book on the parallel evolution of globalization and neoliberalism, with the former (according to the latter) requiring specific rules and institutions to "protect" global capitalism from democratic political pressures. While he focuses very heavily...
Guyana Gains as Venezuela's Maduro Falls, Boosting Investment
Guyana is the biggest winner from Maduro's ouster in Venezuela. "It removes the biggest barrier for foreign investment," said CSIS's Henry Ziemer Lower risk premium, faster development, higher upside. https://t.co/1Tpj1OK8dp #oil #Guyana #Exxon #geopolitics #energy
Overseas and E-Commerce Payments to Be Made Easier in Ethiopia
The National Bank of Ethiopia announced sweeping foreign‑exchange reforms, letting exporters retain 100% of their foreign‑currency earnings in designated accounts and permitting banks to issue payment cards linked to those accounts. The minimum $100 requirement for foreign‑exchange savings accounts has...
Chinese State Banks Boost FX Securities by $90B Monthly
Notable acceleration in the fx securities book of the Chinese state banks (And their reverse repo/ other funding of global financial institutions) in January -- consistent with the $90b monthly increase in the reported fx balance sheet https://t.co/PNDncW2w2s
IEA Paris Meeting Tests Net‑Zero Shift Against US Oil Priorities
For energy policy making, a key week in Paris as @IEA energy officials gather Feb 18-19 for a biennial ministerial meeting. The IEA’s drift toward net-zero advocacy and overtures to China will be tested as US officials push to a return...
Trump’s New Arms Rules Will Hit Southeast Asia
President Trump issued an executive order establishing an “America First” arms export strategy that rewards allies who invest in self‑defense, occupy critical geography, or contribute to U.S. economic security. The rubric pushes the Philippines, Singapore and Cambodia toward priority status...
Nowcast IQ Predicts US Growth Despite Market Pessimism
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
Chinese AI Firms Double, Hitting $35B—West Should Follow
china’s two ai model company minimax and zai have grown 2x in public markets in the last month they’re now $30-35b companies surely that should prompt western labs to go public already
Trump's Shadow Stalls Power Investment, Creating AI Bottleneck
As the dark shadow of Trump fell over the US power sector & the highly effective IRA, investment in power generation plateaued in 2024. Well-time to create a power bottleneck for AI. More on this in the Chartbook Top Link...
Critical Days Ahead: Watch Core Risk Signals
NEW POST: - RISKS. - Core signals to watch. - Volatility and Contagion. “The next few days will be absolutely critical to monitor…” 🔗Link in profile. https://t.co/qgBEZWrB8Z
US‑Iran Oil Talks Conclude Second Round, Third Round Pending
OIL MARKET: The 2nd round of US-Iran talks has concluded, and Iranian media says there would be a 3rd round of negotiations in the “near future” after both sides consult with their respective governments.
Iran and Russia Clash over China Oil Supply Rivalry
The oil ministers of Iran and Russia met today. Contrary to popular belief, Moscow and Tehran are now bitter rivals in the oil market as the size of the black market for crude shrinks. Both compete to supply China. (My earlier @Opinion...
Developing Nations Leapfrog Fossil Era, Embrace Clean Power
I *love* this ternary chart showing developing economies increasingly go directly for clean electrons (solar plus some wind), bypassing the fossil economy that the US and EU went through. I expect Africa will take an even more direct route than India. https://t.co/KjsZV3S6P1...
China’s $20T Paradox Defies Any Five‑year Plan
A short op on what’s going on under the hood in China’s $20 trn economic paradox with the 15th FYP due next month. No five-year plan will solve the paradox of China’s economy https://t.co/uCtAPYrW7A