Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
The Macro-Antifragility Framework: Navigating Southeast Asia’s Risk Landscape in 2026
In 2026 Southeast Asian founders confront a macro‑antifragility dilemma, balancing rapid scaling, unit‑economic profitability, and supply‑chain stability amid rising techno‑nationalism. High‑interest‑rate environments in the West have tightened investor expectations, while ASEAN’s robust GDP growth is tempered by sovereign AI regulations and shifting trade corridors. The article argues that traditional risk management must evolve into antifragility, integrating enterprise risk management (ERM) into core strategy and elevating the CRO’s role. Survival probability, not just MRR, becomes the key metric for startup success.
China Refuses U.S.-style Role in Iran Partnership
.@ZichenWanghere: “China is not willing to play the same role for Iran that the United States has long assumed for its own partners. But that does not mean that China is feckless…Too many observers still measure every rising power against...
China Acknowledges Deflation Risk, Vows Positive Cost Growth
“Encouragingly, China now seems very alert to the threat of deflation…Li Qiang said the government will steer the cost of living ‘back into positive territory.’ That’s tougher language than last year…a welcome recognition that Beijing has a problem.” https://t.co/V270GGGAJB
Emerging-Market Stocks Eye Correction, Currencies Erase YTD Gain
Emerging‑market equities suffered a sharp sell‑off on March 9, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index sliding 3.4% and edging toward a technical correction defined by a 10% pullback from recent highs. Two‑thirds of the index’s constituents posted losses, pushing the benchmark...
Dubai Must Simplify Investment Rules to Remain Top Destination
Dubai faces immediate risk from Singapore. If Dubai wants to retain itself as the best foreign destination it should direct @DIFC to lay out easy rules for investors. Large banks like @RAKBANKlive and @EmiratesNBD_AE should ensure that both existing...
Why China’s Critical Mineral Dominance Is Still Disrupting US Supply Chains
American companies continue to wrestle with critical mineral shortages even after China temporarily lifted its export ban on gallium, germanium and antimony. China still controls the bulk of heavy rare earths and other essential raw materials, creating bottlenecks for U.S....
Oil Surges Past $100 as West Asia War Escalates, Raising Supply Fears
Global crude prices jumped ~20% on Monday, breaching $100 per barrel as the West Asia war escalated. Brent hit $111 and WTI $114, driven by the near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz and production cuts in Kuwait, UAE and Iraq....
2026-03-09: Iran Conflict: Regional Attacks, Economic Impact, and Oil Market Turmoil
The Iran conflict has escalated from direct military exchanges to sustained attacks on critical infrastructure, including oil storage facilities, airports and desalination plants across Iran and neighboring Gulf states. These strikes, combined with ongoing constraints on commercial traffic through the...
Hormuz Closure Triggers Sulfur Shortage, Sparks Demand Destruction
Negative supply shock will lead to price increases & the only way to correct that if supply doesn’t rise is, well, demand destruction. We are headed towards demand destruction if the conflict doesn’t end by Day 14. Today is Day 10....
War Jitters Drain Liquidity From Iran’s Markets as Rial Pricing Fractures
Iran’s financial markets entered a pronounced lull after US and Israeli strikes heightened geopolitical risk, leaving many trading venues partially shut and liquidity thin. Online dollar pricing via USDT surged to IRR 1,550,000 per dollar, yet physical dollar dealers accept roughly...
US Must Not Let Iran Distract It From China
The United States and Israel are escalating a military campaign against Iran, raising concerns that the conflict could divert American attention and resources. Analysts warn that this distraction may allow China to deepen its strategic foothold in the Indo‑Pacific. The...
East African Citizens Brace for Hard Times as Gulf War Escalates
East African economies are bracing for fallout from the escalating Gulf conflict after US and Israel attacks on Iran. Brent crude surged past $84 a barrel, pushing fuel costs and inflation higher across the region. Economists warn that higher import...
How Iran-Israel War Reshapes Sudan’s Fragile Frontlines
The Iran‑Israel conflict has forced Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar to divert attention and resources after Iranian missile reprisals, weakening their mediation role in Sudan’s three‑year war. Analysts argue this shift could either spark renewed diplomatic pressure to end...
Top Market Expert Predicts FIIs Unlikely to Return Anytime Soon After Nearly $2 Billion Selling in March
Foreign institutional investors dumped nearly $2 billion from Indian equities in March, driven by heightened Middle‑East tensions and Brent crude trading above $90 a barrel. The outflows, amounting to roughly Rs 21,829 crore, pushed the Nifty 50 down about 6% year‑to‑date and erased Rs 19 lakh crore...
China Faces Energy Crisis as Gulf Oil Imports Halt
China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...
Iran Appoints Khamenei's Son, IRGC‑linked, as Successor
Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of the country’s slain supreme leader, as his father’s successor. He is known for having close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Mideast War Week Wields High Frequency Onslaught
MSCI stock index gains have halved to a 7% year‑to‑date increase, while JP Morgan’s local and hard‑currency corporate and sovereign bonds are up about 1% YTD. The escalating Israel‑US versus Iran war is drawing parallels to the Russia‑Ukraine conflict’s global market...
Graphs Retain More than Text: Visuals Process Faster
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: The human brain processes images 60,000 times faster than text, and the retention of information presented in graphs is much higher than text. NOTHING BEATS A GOOD GRAPH. TURKEY booms. Before the war, IRAN did not tank. LEBANON is in the...
Trump-Era Sanctions Gave China Cheap Oil, Now Supply Wanes
This galaxy brain it’s-all-about-China’s-oil talking point drives me *insane* Only reason China was able to buy so much discounted crude from Ven/Irn/Ruz was because of US sanctions, largely imposed by the Trump admin(!), which scared off other buyers and left them...
Marcos Departs for US Visit on Sunday
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. departs for a working visit to New York on March 8, where he will address the United Nations General Assembly and the Commission on the Status of Women. He will call for peace in the Middle East,...
Ukrainian Strikes Threaten US Oil Giants’ Kazakh Profits
Chevron and ExxonMobil have a stake in major Kazakh oil projects, which flow through Russia to be exported. Ukrainian strikes on any related infrastructure risk harming those American energy companies’ bottom line, and that simply will not do. #crudeoil #drones #geopolitics...
Commodity Exporters Rebound as Brent Spikes, EM Currencies Rally
Friday marked a turning point. Brent rose 9% (CO1), but - instead of a broad sell-off across EM - South Africa (ZAR), Brazil (BRL) and Chile (CLP) rallied. Markets are transitioning to rewarding commodity exporters like in 2022 after the...
Bahrain Says Refinery Fire From Iran Strike Has Been Contained
A fire erupted at Bahrain's Sitra refinery after an Iranian missile strike, but the blaze was fully contained with no reported injuries and the plant remains operational. The incident comes as the refinery, part of a $7 bn Bapco Modernisation Programme,...
Iran Keeps Shipping Oil to China Amid Conflict
PHOTO OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil. Nine days into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. Tehran has sent some of them across the Strait of Hormuz into the high seas wihthout any...
US Cancels Strait of Hormuz Safety Alerts Amid War
The US Maritime Administration (@DOTMARAD) put out at the begining of the war 2 "alerts" advising vessles to "keep clear" of the Strait of Hormuz. Overnight, it cancelled the alerts (one alert was due to expire automatically, but the other was...
UAE Utilities Say Services Stable Amid Tensions
UAE utility giants Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) and Etihad Water & Electricity confirmed that water and electricity services remain fully operational despite recent missile attacks in the region. Both firms activated risk‑management frameworks and precautionary procedures to safeguard...
Are EM Bonds the Most Obvious Trade in the World?
Emerging‑market (EM) bonds are delivering roughly double the yield of developed‑market debt while their volatility has fallen below that of traditional safe‑haven assets. The structural advantage stems from EM governments carrying about half the debt‑to‑GDP ratios of their developed counterparts,...
Pakistan Seeks Saudi Red Sea Route for Oil After Iran Closes Hormuz
Pakistan is turning to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea corridor to import crude after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz following recent U.S.–Israeli strikes. The disruption threatens Pakistan’s already tight fuel supply, prompting the government to adopt aggressive conservation policies,...
India Grants Subsidy to $360m Chip Assembly Project
India announced a subsidy for a $360 million back‑end semiconductor assembly plant being built by Kaynes in partnership with Japan’s Mitsui & Co. and Aoi Electronics. The government support aims to lower capital costs and accelerate the plant’s commissioning, targeted for later this...
Indo-US Trade Talks Reset; Deal Now Expected in 3-4 Months
Indo‑US trade talks have been reset after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, activating the joint statement’s review clause. Both governments now have a three‑to‑four‑month window to reassess the proposed preferential...
George Answers Your Questions: First Thoughts on the Attack on Iran
George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures provides his first assessment of the recent attack on Iran, describing the immediate strategic context and the organization’s internal response. He explains that Geopolitical Futures has moved to a “Red Alert” posture, mirroring past crisis...
West Asia Crisis: Ministry Asks Ports to Consider Waiving Charges, Issues SoP
India’s Union Shipping, Ports and Waterways Ministry issued a standard operating procedure to mitigate disruptions from the West Asia crisis. The SOP authorises ports to consider waiving or reducing charges such as vessel fees and storage rent on a case‑by‑case...
The China 5: Trade Flows, Housing Stalls & K-Economy
China’s export sector remains robust, buoyed by deep‑seated cost advantages and policy support, while domestic demand continues to falter. Container freight rates edged higher despite Iran‑related shipping risks, and real‑estate prices and sales plunged 27% year‑on‑year. The economy is increasingly...
Forecasting Iran-Israel Conflict's Escalation Path
As a global forecaster, I’ve been closely watching the escalation dynamics around the Iran–Israel war. Subscribers to my research have already been tracking this trajectory, but for those following events more broadly, here are my key predictions for how this conflict...
Commerce Ministry Assures of Restoration of Full RoDTEP Benefits to Exporters From April 1: FIEO
India's Commerce Ministry announced that the full Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) benefits will be reinstated from April 1, 2026, after a temporary 50% reduction that lasted until March 31. The scheme, which refunds 0.3%‑3.9% of...
Gold Price Will Continue to Rise as Central Banks Continue to Diversify Into Non-Dollar Reserves: SBI Research
Gold prices have surged 47.6% since August 2025, reaching $5,092 per ounce, as central banks shift from Treasury securities to gold. The United States and Germany now report gold comprising over 80% of their reserve portfolios, with Italy and India also...
ASH: Iran War - Who Needs Nukes when You Have Drones?
Iran’s low‑cost, $20,000 drones are emerging as a more disruptive strategic weapon than its nuclear program, targeting the Gulf’s diversified economic assets. The drone campaign threatens energy, logistics, tourism, real‑estate and financial sectors, raising the risk of capital flight and...
Hezbollah, Israeli Troops Clash on the Ground in Eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa
Israeli forces attempted a landing operation near the Lebanon‑Syria border, sparking ground clashes with Hezbollah in the Bekaa Valley town of Nabi Chit. Israeli air raids killed at least 16 civilians and wounded 35, marking the deepest incursion since November 2024....
China’s Missile Reach Forces Japan Back to Iwo Jima
Japan’s Defense Ministry is studying a major upgrade of Iwo Jima, including runway extension, port enhancements and a floating pier, to host JSDF fighter jets permanently. The move seeks to close a Pacific‑side surveillance gap and provide a redundant air hub...
Russian Public Support for Ukraine War Hits New Low, Poll Shows
An independent Levada Center poll shows Russian public support for continuing the war in Ukraine has fallen to just 24%, the lowest level since the conflict began. Meanwhile, 67% now favor peace negotiations, up six points from the previous month,...
Japan Seeks Exemption From US Tariff Hike Amid Trade Concerns
Japan has asked the United States to exclude it from a planned tariff hike that would raise duties from 10% to 15%, warning that higher rates could damage its auto sector and jeopardise the $550 billion Strategic Investment Initiative tied to...
Withdrawal Freeze Signals Deep Liquidity Crisis at BlackRock
Thought? BlackRock investors rushed to pull their money out and withdrawals were suddenly locked. Halting withdrawals typically signals serious liquidity problems and can trigger panic in the financial system.
US AI Supercomputers in Middle East Shift Global Race
Look at how much US AI supercomputer cluster capacity was planned for/installed in UAE and Saudi Have not seen any strategists discuss yet what this means for US v. China AI race Seems important. Thoughts? https://t.co/23plcm9k0V
When Neighbours Stop Knocking: The Hidden Impact of Canada’s 2025 Tourism Decline on US Local Labour Markets
In 2025, Canadian tourism to the United States dropped 25% after heightened geopolitical tensions and Trump‑era rhetoric. The decline hit service‑oriented ZIP codes where Canadian visitors comprised at least 1% of foot traffic, leading to a 6% employment contraction in...
US Investors Push Asian Funds to Create Restricted‑tech Vehicles
FT: US investors are increasingly asking Asian fund managers to carve out special vehicles so they can invest in the region without falling foul of American investment restrictions on Chinese technology. https://t.co/BxNIMQgnjK
China’s Modest Target Risks Stalling Demand Revival
The Economist: “China’s new target is too low. Judging by the country’s recent record, it will set a ceiling on the government’s efforts to revive demand, perpetuating the economy’s biggest problems.” https://t.co/r2SPU7niNb
Cross-Border Restrictions in the Age of Geopolitical Tensions: What Seven Decades of Data Tell Us
A new study uses large‑language‑model techniques to convert the IMF’s 70‑year AREAER narrative archive into a daily, country‑level dataset of cross‑border financial restrictions (iBoP‑C and iBoP‑S). The high‑frequency indices reveal a stop‑go pattern of financial liberalisation, with advanced economies easing...
Putin Benefits as Russia Aids Iran, US Relaxes Sanctions
russia providing iran with targeting assistance against the us military. us reducing sanctions on russian oil export. quite the both/and for putin.
Inside Trump’s Long-Term Economic Strategy, with EXIM Bank’s John Jovanovic
John Jovanovic, chairman of the U.S. Export‑Import Bank, outlined a long‑term economic agenda that aligns with former President Trump’s focus on export resilience and strategic stockpiles. He detailed Project Vault, a demand‑driven critical‑mineral reserve designed to curb just‑in‑time vulnerabilities. Jovanovic also...
Muted Iran War Stance Fits Concerned Onlooker China’s Priorities
China’s response to the US‑Israeli strike on Iran was deliberately muted, reflecting its doctrinal opposition to regime‑change interventions and a focus on protecting Chinese nationals. Beijing issued a UN Security Council appeal and condemned the attacks, but paired diplomatic protest...