Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Integrated Digital Connectivity Drives Africa’s Growth
Analysts estimate a $2.9 trillion digital opportunity in Africa over the next five years, positioning the continent as the world’s fastest‑growing bandwidth market. Internet usage has climbed to roughly 40 % of the 1.5 billion population, though it remains well below the 66 % global average. The recent activation of ultra‑high‑capacity subsea cables such as 2Africa and Equiano has more than tripled Africa’s international capacity, with further projects like Google’s Umoja and Meta’s Waterworth on the horizon. Complementary investments in terrestrial fiber, satellite networks, data centers, IXPs and cloud infrastructure are accelerating connectivity, lowering costs, and expanding digital services across the continent.
Daily Memo: Oil Markets and Shipping Disruptions
The International Energy Agency’s member states voted unanimously to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency strategic reserves, a move that more than doubles the 182 million‑barrel drawdown in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The sizable release is intended to...
Japanese Automakers Earned Canada's Trust. Will China Do the Same with EVs?
Ottawa has opened the Canadian market to Chinese electric‑vehicle imports, reviving a debate that first surfaced when Japanese automakers entered in the 1960s. At that time, unions feared job losses, but Japanese firms eventually built plants in Ontario, creating thousands...
Wednesday Wipeout: Investor Mood Sours After Tuesday’s Brief Respite
Indian equities plunged nearly 2% on Wednesday, pushing the Nifty 50 and Sensex to 10‑month lows as fresh West Asia tensions revived market anxiety. The sell‑off erased about ₹5.48 trillion in BSE market capitalisation in a single session, while foreign institutional...
Private Markets Investors Increasingly Favour India over Peers in APAC
India has become the leading private‑markets destination in APAC, with 31% of surveyed limited partners (LPs) ranking it first and 76% placing it among their top three choices. Over half of the LPs plan to increase allocations, and private‑market funds...
Foe or Friend? US-Turkey Bilateral Relations Seem Set to Improve as Interests Align
U.S.–Turkey relations are moving toward greater cooperation as shared strategic interests outweigh public rhetoric. An analysis of sixteen regional and global issues finds eleven areas of full alignment, four with friction and one mixed, yielding a net positive score. The...
Mexico Is the Source of US Economic Growth
The Mexican Embassy highlighted that Mexico invested $61.7 billion in the United States in 2025 and that bilateral trade now totals $873 billion—roughly $1.7 million each minute. Mexico’s exports to the U.S. reach $535 billion while imports stand at $338 billion, meaning the U.S. buys...
India Fast-Tracks Chinese Investment Approvals in Key Sectors
India announced a fast‑track approval process for Chinese investments in selected sectors, reducing clearance time to 60 days. The new rules apply to electronics, capital goods, solar cells and battery components, but require Indian residents to hold majority stakes. The...
The Wisdom of Europe’s “Great Capitulation”
The European Union accepted an asymmetrical trade deal with the United States, lowering its residual tariffs while the US maintains high reciprocal tariffs. The arrangement prevents a retaliatory trade war and keeps European import costs modest. Analysts argue the deal...
S. Korea, Ghana Leaders Seek Tangible Cooperation on Security, Critical Minerals
South Korean and Ghanaian leaders met to forge concrete cooperation on security and critical minerals. They outlined Korean investment in Ghana's mining sector, targeting lithium, cobalt and bauxite, while planning joint maritime and cyber‑defense drills. The agreement includes technology transfer,...
India Opens Door to More Chinese Investment After 6-Year Freeze
India announced a relaxation of its foreign investment rules, allowing Chinese firms to invest in a limited set of sectors after a six‑year freeze that began in 2020. The policy shift caps Chinese ownership at 49 percent in approved industries...
Brazil, Saudi Arabia Team Up on Critical Minerals Mapping
Brazil and Saudi Arabia launch a critical minerals working group and seek Saudi funding for Brazil mapping. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/brazil-saudi-arabia-to-cooperate-for.html
EMBX: Actively Navigating Iran-Driven Risks in EM Debt>
VanEck’s Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBX) trimmed Gulf exposure as Iran‑related tensions heightened, yet bond prices in the region stayed flat, creating a weak risk‑reward profile. The fund now leans toward commodity‑exporting issuers in Latin America and Sub‑Saharan Africa, which...
Dubai’s Economic Dynamism Will Help It Withstand Iran Conflict
Dubai’s economy has shifted from oil reliance to a diversified, high‑growth hub, posting 3.6% GDP growth in 2023 and 4% in 2024. The UAE’s free‑zone model, tax competitiveness and regulatory certainty have attracted global firms and AI‑focused investors such as...
UAE Economy Lags Behind Turkey and Iran, Data Shows
There are many narratives that are regularly spun by the spinners. One is that the UAE is more than a sunny place where shady people reside. Another is that it is a booming economy. Wrong. When you look at the data, the...
Ireland Cashes $6.6B Pharma Tax, Fuels US Investment
Clever marketing by Ireland. Most of this is private investment that would have happened anyway. And trivial compared to the tax gains Ireland is reaping from US firms -- Eli Lilly disclosed tax payments to Ireland of $6.6...
Investment in MENA Startups Hits $327 Million in February 2026
Investment in MENA startups slowed sharply in February 2026, with total capital deployed falling 42% month‑on‑month to $326.6 million across 62 deals. The UAE remained the dominant ecosystem, contributing $162.8 million from 23 companies, while fintech led sector funding at $94.7 million. Early‑stage...
Unbalanced Globalization Persists: Insights From PGIM’s Daleep Singh
A conversation between me and PGIM's Daleep Singh (recorded before the bombs started falling on Tehran) that covers a number of big macro themes -- including the persistence of an unhealthy and unbalanced forms of globalization. https://t.co/9i02acEiiE
China's Trade Surplus Grows as Property Recovery Stalls
Frustrating. China won't use the "clean" balance sheet of the central government to support a real recovery from the prolonged property market slump. The net result: a rising trade surplus supports China's growth at the expense of its trading...
Gulf War III Is a Warning About the Effects of a ‘Taiwan Straits War I’
The article warns that the economic shock from the Israel‑U.S. attack on Iran—dubbed Gulf War III—exposes how fragile global trade is when shipping routes are disrupted. It argues that a military move against Taiwan would create a similar, if not larger,...
G7/G20 Vows to Curb Iran Oil Leverage
Inside the G7 (and the G20) most countries are absolutely livid with the Trump administration's attack on Iran, but don't mistake their indignation with a desire to let Iran take the global economy hostage via oil. G7/G20/OECD nations will respond...
New Interview Reveals Outlook for China's Economy
I was interviewed two weeks ago by Mark Sobel at OMFIF about the outlook for the Chinese economy. It just came out. https://t.co/d6LFlYcl14
2026-03-11: Japan Deploys First Domestically Produced Long-Range Missiles in Kumamoto
South Korean military and regulators are treating the escalating Middle East conflict as an immediate business risk, especially after strikes near Korean units in Lebanon and the UAE. The Cheonghae Unit east of Oman has heightened surveillance and is now...
China's Exports Soar 21.8%, Trump Trade War Backfires
China’s exports SURGED by 21.8% in the first 2 months of 2026. Trump’s international trade war is BACKFIRING. Thanks to Trump, CHINA IS WINNING THE TRADE WAR, BIG-TIME. https://t.co/h0s5xlnA1N
Beijing Hesitates Spending to Limit Household Financial Autonomy
"Beijing is not allergic to spending. It is just not confident about spending that gives households too much autonomy over how to use the money." --@ZichenWanghere Very good read on the need for rural pension reform, among other things https://t.co/HMmzkQ9ZMn https://t.co/sEMkJotQeP
Trump’s Iran Attack Is Saddling Your Portfolio with a Costly ‘Risk Tax’ — and You Can’t Escape It
The opinion piece warns that President Donald Trump’s recent military strike on Iran has embedded a costly “risk tax” across all investment portfolios. By deploying hard power, the United States has heightened geopolitical uncertainty, forcing markets to price a higher...
How Critical Are Critical Minerals in the Brazil-US Economic Relationship?
Policymakers and experts convened to examine how critical minerals shape the Brazil‑US economic partnership. Brazil’s abundant rare‑earth and battery‑grade mineral reserves are increasingly vital to the United States’ energy‑transition agenda. The discussion highlighted supply‑chain vulnerabilities, especially reliance on China, and...
Nigel Farage U-Turns on His Iran War Position
Nigel Farage, the former UKIP leader and Brexit Party founder, has reversed his earlier stance opposing a military strike on Iran, now indicating he would back a UK‑led intervention. The shift follows heightened tensions after Iran’s recent missile tests and...
Finmin Seeks Parliamentary Approval for ₹1 Lakh Cr ‘Economic Stabilisation Fund’ to Face War-Induced Volatility
India’s Finance Ministry has asked Parliament to approve a ₹1 lakh crore Economic Stabilisation Fund aimed at cushioning the economy from market turbulence caused by the war in West Asia. The fund is part of the second batch of Supplementary Demands for...
Market Flash – January 2026
Global equity markets began 2026 on a firm footing despite heightened geopolitical tension, with emerging‑market equities delivering an 8.85% return in U.S. dollar terms. In contrast, U.S. growth stocks slipped 1.51% while small‑cap and value segments posted solid gains. Bond...
How IEA Emergency Oil Releases Actually Work
It's a while since the last IEA emergency oil release, so I put together a briefing note on how it works in practice as it follows a strict technical and diplomatic protocol. The below is a (simplified) guide to follow...
G7 Leaders Convene Video Call on Gulf War Energy Crisis
G7 head of state and/or government will hold a video call Wednesday to discuss the impact of the Third Gulf War, particularly around the “energy situation” and the Strait of Hormuz. The call is scheduled for 2pm GMT. I doubt this...
Saudi Aramco CEO Issues Stark Warning: Iran War Could Bring ‘Catastrophic’ Shock to Global Oil
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war could trigger a catastrophic shock to global oil markets if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The conflict has already halted up to 20% of world petroleum trade, pushed Brent...
UAE's Defense Spending Outpaces Iran's Offense Tenfold
“… Right now it looks like the Gulf - especially the UAE - is spending something like $28 in defense for every $1 Iran spends on offense […] that's not a long-term equation anyone wants to …”
Norway, Iceland Eye EU Membership Amid U.S. Shift
As the U.S. becomes more transactional and predatory, Norway and Iceland are now considering EU membership to add a bit more security. #eu #geopolitics https://t.co/ziNWQ6FQIW
South-South Trade with China Is the Future of Global Trade
China is rapidly expanding its south‑south trade, with the Belt and Road Initiative now responsible for roughly 52% of its foreign trade. Between 2007 and 2023, south‑south commerce grew from $2.3 trillion to $5.6 trillion, accounting for over a third of global...
Pakistan Deploys Navy to Guard Oil Lifelines Amid Saudi Ties
Pakistan says it has launched a naval operation to protect its “energy lifelines.” In some ways expected: oil importing nations in Asia may step in protecting their own tankers. (Importantly, Pakistan has a defence treaty with Saudi Arabia, and buys...
War Expands to Civilian Infrastructure, Risking Economic Disaster
The Iran War is shifting toward civilian infrastructure. Israel is targeting fuel depots around Tehran, & Iran struck a desalination facility in Bahrain. Further escalation could carry serious economic & humanitarian consequences. Access Peter's 3/11 Q&A https://t.co/mlYf8sohf4 https://t.co/Azea9LqQlh
Hormuz Closure Would Cost Gulf States Average 3.8% of GDP, Marex Warns as Bahrain Most Exposed
Marex warns that a three‑month shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would erode the average current‑account balance of Gulf states by 3.8% of GDP. Bahrain, lacking alternative export routes, would see its surplus flip to a 3.2% deficit, while Saudi...
Oil Prices Swing Amid Naval Escort and Mine Threats
Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, potential mines in the...
Supply Strength Keeps Oil Prices Low, Diminishing Hedge Demand
Oil market isn't going the way Iran hoped. Amazing what the Saudi/UAE pipelines can do, plus the (very clear) threat of SPR release. Plus, oil crisis are defined by price x duration. Without a feared long disruption, investors aren't chasing oil futures...
Daily Memo: Commercial Shipping and the Conflict in Iran
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced it will condition passage through the Strait of Hormuz on Arab or European nations expelling U.S. and Israeli ambassadors, while simultaneously barring oil exports to the United States and its allies. The move signals...
ING Predicts Oil Market Shock if Hormuz Closes
What impact will closing the Strait of Hormuz have? ING takes a guess featured in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/aiQTNxvQMb
India Redirects LPG to Homes Amid Gas Shortage
INDIA GAS SHORTAGE 🇮🇳 ⚠️ India invoked emergency powers to redirect LPG away from industrial users to households LNG supplies to petrochemical and power plants are being curbed The crisis in the Middle East is throttling India’s LPG and LNG supply https://t.co/ujn00XTSnf
Colombia Election Notes - March 2026
Colombian right‑wing primaries saw Paloma Valencia capture over 5.5 million votes, eclipsing both Ivan Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella. De la Espriella’s early lead proved a prediction‑market bubble lacking grassroots support, and his momentum may soon fade. The governing Pacto Histórico secured legislative majorities...
Albert Hirschman Strikes Back
Albert O. Hirschman's 1945 work *National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade* was largely ignored when published, but its analysis of how states engineer trade for strategic advantage is resurfacing amid today’s intensifying geoeconomic conflict. The book argued that...
Fiscal Deficit as Percentage of GDP Revised Upwards for FY'23 to FY'25 After GDP Base Revision
India’s fiscal‑deficit ratios have been revised upward for FY 2022‑23 to FY 2024‑25 after the government adopted a 2022‑23 GDP base year. The new series shows deficits of 6.7 % in 2022‑23, 5.7 % in 2023‑24 and 4.9 % in 2024‑25, compared with earlier estimates...
Saudi Arabia Turns to Fahad Al-Saif As Vision 2030 Faces Reality Check
Saudi Arabia has replaced veteran investment minister Khalid Al‑Falih with former HSBC banker Fahad Al‑Saif amid mounting pressure to boost foreign capital. Foreign direct investment last year accounted for just 2.1% of GDP, far short of Vision 2030 targets, while government...
Ambassador Bozell Flags Scale of US Tech Investment in South Africa
U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III highlighted that more than 500 American companies operate in South Africa, collectively employing around 250,000 people. He emphasized the strong presence of tech giants such as Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Google and Visa, which...
Goldilocks Market Boosts EM Commodity Exporters Amid Brent Dip
We're in a goldilocks environment for EM commodity exporters like Brazil and South Africa. Brent has fallen significantly, which is good for risk appetite. But it's still 20% above where it was before hostilities. That's good for EM commodity exporters......