Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
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Turkey’s Inflation Fight Stands Exposed to a Trump Wrecking Ball
Turkey’s inflation remains above 30% as the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) paused its tightening cycle on March 12, sparking criticism from analysts who argue a rate hike was warranted. The country’s $50 bn annual energy import bill and soaring oil prices—potentially reaching $150 per barrel— threaten to add up to seven percentage points to inflation and swell the current‑account deficit beyond $40 bn. Capital Economics and other experts warn that without decisive policy action, the deficit could hit $50 bn and the lira could face severe depreciation. A possible rate increase to 40% is expected at the April 22 meeting.
KCB Identifies Entity for 2026 Ethiopia Entry
KCB Group aims to enter Ethiopia by the end of 2026, planning to acquire control of a local bank that fits its cultural and strategic objectives. The deal must navigate Ethiopia’s 49% foreign‑shareholding ceiling, though the regulator can grant exceptions...
Electric Vehicles Could Soon Be Cheaper than Petrol Cars in Africa – if Financing Barriers Fall
New research from ETH Zürich and PSI finds that electric vehicles paired with off‑grid solar can already be cheaper than petrol cars in many African markets, especially where financing conditions are favorable. Falling battery prices and expanding global EV production...
Oil Spike and Strait Closure Cripple Emerging Markets
Emerging markets down 14% from February highs. The EM rally was built on dollar weakness. Then the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil rewrote the script. Oil at $100 is devastating for importers like India, South Korea, and Turkey. Even exporters need...
Recommended Weekend Reads
The curated weekend reads reveal that the U.S./Israel strikes on Iran have effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly one‑third of global seaborne fertilizer shipments and driving urea prices up about 30% in a month. The disruption exposes the...
East Asia Oil Import Pincer Beckons Bond Backstop
The outbreak of the Iran war has jolted East Asian markets, exposing the region’s heavy reliance on Middle‑East oil imports. A trade‑risk ranking flags the Philippines and Vietnam as the most vulnerable, while China continues sourcing from Tehran and Russia...
Iran-US-Israel War May Cause Short-Term Economic Shortfall in India, Says Piyush Goyal
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said India’s economy remains resilient despite the Iran‑US‑Israel war, though a short‑term dip in activity is expected. He cited strong fundamentals and a projected 7%‑plus growth rate for the next fiscal year. State Bank of...
Peruvian Stocks: Why They May Be an Unexpected Winner of the AI Boom, Iran War
Peruvian equities have outperformed global peers in 2026, with the S&P Peru Total Index climbing 23% year‑to‑date and 75% over the past twelve months. The rally is driven by soaring copper, gold and silver prices as AI‑powered data centers boost commodity...
How China Is Wooing Paraguay’s Political Class Away From Longtime Ally Taiwan
China is intensifying a diplomatic campaign in Paraguay, offering all‑expenses‑paid tours of Chinese cities to lawmakers and journalists to showcase its economic might. The outreach aims to persuade Paraguay’s political class to abandon its long‑standing recognition of Taiwan, its last...
Transcript: The Economic Fallout of the Iran War
The US‑Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Tehran to shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly a fifth of global oil flows and pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel. The surge in oil and LNG prices is spilling into gasoline,...
Heineken Doubles Down on India, Eyes 'Biggest Untapped Beer Market'
Heineken announced it will intensify its focus on India, calling the country the world’s biggest untapped beer market. The brewer, which controls United Breweries and the Kingfisher brand, already commands close to 50% of Indian beer sales. It cites structural...
Iran Shifts Oil Payments to Yuan, Undermining Dollar Dominance
Iran has stated it will allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz - but only for shipments paid for in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars. The dollar is THE standard currency of the fossil fuel trade. Iran didn’t just announce...
White House Plans for Iran; Asks China for Warships
So let’s see if I got this right: The White House had anticipated (and prepared) for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. And part of that response is for the President to ask via social media geopolitical foes like...
Top Chinese Entrepreneurs Commit to Middle East Expansion Despite Iran War
Chinese tech magnates, including the founders of TCL and Xpeng, announced plans to double their outbound investment, targeting the Middle East and Latin America. The pledge comes as the US‑Israel conflict with Iran escalates and Washington intensifies pressure on Venezuela....
Drone Strike Halts Fujairah Oil Loading After Kharg
The response after Kharg Island? Some oil loading operations in the UAE port of Fujairah, just outside the Strait of Hormuz, have been suspended after a drone attack and fire on Saturday morning. https://t.co/rhA5ofo80y https://t.co/SkhA67PyzU
Kick Off Weekend with In‑Depth Talk Featuring Molly Jong
Begin your weekend by joining me for a long chat with Molly Jong-Fast about *all this*. https://t.co/upeUqKge1T
Boosting China-India Ties Should Be Pillar of Hong Kong’s Five-Year Plan
Hong Kong’s upcoming five‑year plan proposes making the Sino‑Indian partnership a strategic pillar. The proposal calls for extending visa‑free entry for Indian nationals, leveraging the Indian diaspora for scholarships and AI talent, and offering tax incentives to attract Indian firms...
LPG Tankers Cross Hormuz After Tehran‑Delhi Talks
One-off or sign of easing? Two tankers transporting LPG (think the butane canisters) have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last few hours on the way to India. The crossing happened after gov-to-gov talks between Tehran and New Delhi....
Centre Flags War Risk to Thai Growth
The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at UTCC outlined three Middle‑East war scenarios, estimating that a prolonged, wide‑scale conflict could shave 2.31 percentage points off Thailand’s GDP. In the worst case, energy‑cost burdens would rise above 200 billion baht, exports could...
US Warned of China Rare Earth Curbs if Section 301 Tariffs Expand
The U.S. Trade Representative announced Section 301 investigations into 16 countries, including China, and separate probes into 60 economies over forced‑labor concerns. In response, Chinese officials warned they could reinstate rare‑earth export restrictions and halt soybean purchases if Washington proceeds with...
Is a Transcontinental Highway the Key to Unlocking Trade in Latin America?
The Inter‑American Development Bank is backing the Bi‑Oceanic Corridor—a 2,300‑mile road and rail link from Brazil to Chile—with a $200 million loan for the critical Paraguay segment. The corridor, slated for completion in late 2026, promises to shave roughly two‑and‑a‑half weeks off...
Here’s a Rare Chance to Invest Before Big Stock-Index Funds and Wall Street Dive In
FTSE Russell plans to reclassify Vietnam from a frontier market to the secondary‑emerging category, a move that will trigger substantial index‑fund inflows. Analysts estimate up to $5 billion could be redirected into Vietnamese equities once the change is implemented in September. Retail...
EXCLUSIVE: Cyprus Acts as a “Third Force” In EU Sanctions Extension Vote
Cyprus, currently holding the EU presidency, has moved from a neutral position to actively opposing the removal of sanctions on Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov, citing historic disputes with Turkey. The shift follows a letter from Turkish President Recep Erdoğan to Slovak...
Yao Yang: The Post-2018 Evolution in China's Political Economy
At a Long U.S.–China Institute distinguished lecture on Feb. 23, 2026, Professor Yao Yang argued that China’s reform‑and‑opening period effectively concluded in 2018, ushering a new era focused on manufacturing expansion and technological self‑reliance. He outlined domestic policy shifts—including anti‑corruption drives,...
India, UK Trade Pact May Come Into Effect in One Month From Now: Piyush Goyal
India and the United Kingdom are set to bring their Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) into force by mid‑April, just a month after the announcement. The deal grants duty‑free access for 99% of Indian exports to the UK market...
India’s Imports From China Slowed Overtime, Exports Grow Faster: Govt Tells Parliament
India’s imports from China have decelerated sharply, rising only 87.8% in FY2015‑25 versus a 618% surge in FY2005‑14, while exports to China accelerated to a 38.3% year‑on‑year gain in April‑January FY2024‑25 compared with a 13.8% import rise. The slowdown is...
Russia’s Nuclear Exports a Flourishing Geopolitical Asset, After Four Years of Ukraine War
Four years after the Ukraine invasion, Russia’s state nuclear firm Rosatom has turned civil nuclear exports into a robust geopolitical tool. The company now leads global reactor sales, offering VVER‑1200 and VVER‑1000 plants financed up to 90% by Russian state...
Microsoft Invests Hundreds of Millions of Dollars in Africa AI Push
Microsoft announced a multi‑year push to accelerate AI adoption across Africa, pledging to train three million people through partnerships with schools and universities in key hubs such as South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and Morocco. The company also struck a deal...
Mobilizing Africa’s Capital for African Development
Africa faces a $2.8 trillion financing gap for climate action by 2030, yet ample capital exists within the continent’s savings pools and sovereign wealth funds, plus global yield‑seeking investors. The article argues that fragmented markets prevent this capital from reaching needed...
Goldman’s Shifting Forecasts Reveal War to Reopen Hormuz
Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again...
White House Admits Plan: Bomb Kharg Island Amid Hormuz Closure
OK, I suppose we should admit the White House was right, and, all along, they did have a plan to deal with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bomb Kharg Island.
Lichfield Quoted in Bloomberg Article Discussing How Countries Are Shielding Their Economies From Iran War Shocks
Atlantic Council senior fellow Lichfield was quoted in a Bloomberg piece highlighting how governments are insulating their economies from the fallout of the Iran‑Israel conflict. He noted that nations are bolstering strategic petroleum reserves, diversifying supply chains, and employing financial...
USD Reserve Status Threatened If Commodity Contracts Fail
Good point & good question - what happens to the USD's reserve status if USD commodity contracts are broken on a widespread basis? What's the point of holding USDs if they are declared worthless for commodities when inconvenient? See 2022 seizure of...
Hormuz Closure Would Crash Markets, Boost Commodities and Inflation
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens...
Daily Memo: US Eases Russian Oil Sanctions
The United States announced a 30‑day suspension of sanctions on Russian crude that is currently at sea, aiming to cushion the economic repercussions of the war in Iran. The temporary relief covers roughly 100 million barrels of Russian oil in transit,...
Chinese Zinc Shipments From Iran Cancelled Amid Conflict
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
Iran's Move Could Crash Oil Prices, Lose Leverage
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
Russia’s Relentless Interference Since Start of Ukraine War Has Failed to Break Moldova
Four years after Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, Moldova has withstood Moscow’s destabilisation campaign and moved forward on its EU accession path. The country secured candidate status in 2022 and opened accession negotiations in 2024, while President Maia Sandu won...
India’s Post‑socialist Reforms Spark Rapid Modernization
India and Pakistan are a fascinating A/B test in modernization. After India threw off its socialist yoke, things really started accelerating. 2000 onward it’s a rocket ship. https://t.co/jBihDMGtl9
China’s JV Rules Succeed via Approval Leverage, Tariffs, Cheap Currency
This is a critical point -- China's JV requirements worked b/c China had to approve investments (so it had leverage) generally speaking & b/c China had relatively high tariffs (25% on autos) and an undervalued exchange rate so there was a...
Vietnam and the Geopolitics of Critical Minerals
Vietnam has tightened restrictions on raw rare‑earth exports to force domestic refining, positioning itself as a niche superpower in critical minerals. Meanwhile, the United States is building a broad coalition of more than 50 partners through initiatives like the Critical...
India Can Avoid the Middle-Income Trap
Prime Minister Narendra Modi aims to elevate India to a fully developed economy by August 15, 2047, marking the nation’s centennial of independence. Over the past twenty years, India has posted strong GDP growth, while recent years have seen an unprecedented surge...
BMO CIO Sees Momentum in India, Despite Energy Shocks
Chief Investment Officer Sadiq Adatia of BMO Global Asset Management says India’s growth momentum remains strong despite short‑term energy shocks and medium‑term trade challenges. He cites a growing middle class, expanding infrastructure, and a new EU‑India trade agreement that could...
U.S. Defense Secretary Says No Clear Evidence of Iranian Mines
US Defence Secretary Hegseth says there is "not clear evidence" that Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz
India, US on the Heels of Finalising a Critical Minerals Agreement, ‘Big Announcement in Few Months’, Says Sergio Gor
U.S. Ambassador Sergio Gor announced that India and the United States are on the brink of finalising a critical minerals agreement, with a major public announcement expected within months. The pact is designed to shore up supply chains for advanced...
Trump Is ‘Wrong’: Europeans Slam US Decision to Ease Russia Oil Sanctions
European leaders, including Germany’s Friedrich Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, condemned the Trump administration’s decision to temporarily lift sanctions on stranded Russian oil. They argue the move will replenish Moscow’s war chest and undermine the G7’s unified pressure on Russia...
SE Asia May Fit the Bill as Forwarders Shy Away From US ‘Tariff Silliness’
European freight forwarders are reducing exposure to the United States amid unpredictable tariff policies and turning to South‑East Asia for new import opportunities. The region, bolstered by the broader “China+1” diversification, shows steady growth, with Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam leading...
Asia Daily: March 13, 2026
China enacted a sweeping ethnic‑unity law that codifies assimilation and expands legal tools to counter Western influence, while a U.S. report highlighted the concentration risk of its nuclear warhead storage at Base 67. In parallel, Beijing widened its ban on BHP...
Iran Conflict Threatens China's Small-Scale Oil Refineries
NEW ODD LOTS: What War in Iran means for the 'teapot' oil refineries in China. @tracyalloway and I talk to @Erica_Downs_ about what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Chinese energy security. https://t.co/ZdGwLQJV8E
Burundi Signs Deal with Bezos, Gates-Linked Miner
Burundi has signed a three‑year memorandum of understanding with U.S. miners KoBold Metals and Life Zone Metals to explore lithium, cobalt, copper and other critical minerals. The deal, witnessed in Washington, DC, includes a commitment to digitise Burundi’s geological data by July...