Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Reimagining Gulf Security
The recent Iran war has exposed the shortcomings of the Gulf’s long‑standing “protection for sale” model, where security is bought through U.S. arms deals and basing rights. Authors argue that reliance on conditional American guarantees is unsustainable. They propose that Gulf states pivot toward a security framework built on regional economic integration and shared prosperity. This shift could reduce petrodollar dependence and reshape Gulf geopolitical alignments.
Control of Hormuz Determines Iran War’s Global Impact
Comparing what is now happening with what has happened in analogous historical situations and triangulating my thinking with smart, well-informed leaders and experts has always helped me make better decisions. I have found that most wars are filled with big...
China’s 90% Model Redefines Global Economic Power
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤. What if China’s economic power is much bigger than we realize? In just 45 seconds, I’ll reveal the truth behind China’s 90% Model and how it’s reshaping industries globally. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐥𝐥 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧: The insidious strategy behind...
DA Seeks Fertilizer Supply Deals with China, Russia Amid Mideast Tensions
The Philippine Department of Agriculture is negotiating fertilizer supply agreements with China, Russia, India and Belarus as Middle‑East tensions threaten the flow of nitrogen‑based inputs. While the agency has already secured more than 80% of its annual fertilizer requirement, rising...
Iran War Reshapes Fed Expectations and Monetary Policy Outlook
Worth noting just how much the Iran war has changed expectations about the Fed and the future path of monetary policy. https://t.co/NBYZx2Uuza
China Refuses to Tap Reserves for Global Supply
Well, China isn't going to dip into its strategic reserves to help supply the rest of the world ... 1/2
Why Asia Hopes for a Short Mideast War
A potential war in Iran is sending shockwaves through the Asia‑Pacific as the region’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil, LNG and petrochemicals makes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz a catalyst for inflation, supply‑chain strain and strategic uncertainty....
Israel Hits Iran's South Pars, World's Largest Gas Field
Israel just struck Iranian infrastructure at South Pars, the world's biggest natural gas field. This natgas episode is definitely worth a listen ⬇️⬇️
Targeting Upstream Energy Assets Signals Unchecked Escalation
Both sides are now targeting upstream (ie, production) oil and natural gas assets. Is this an attempt to escalate to de-escalate? Or is it simply a sign that escalation is spiralling out of control?
Instead of Shopping They’re Quietly Stockpiling Cash — ‘Shadow Saving’ — and It Could Short-Circuit the Global Economy
Chinese households are amassing cash at record levels, with deposits reaching roughly 118% of GDP by 2025, despite falling interest rates. A Reuters poll shows more than 80% of respondents prefer saving over spending, reflecting deep‑seated precautionary behavior. The shift...
Iran Claims US‑Israeli Strikes Target South Pars Gas Field
Iran said US and Israeli airstrikes hit its giant South Pars natural gas field and associated infrastructure, according to state television. Petrochemical facilities in nearby Asaluyeh also came under attack, it added.
Gulf Growth Model Crumbles: Deals, Exports, Capital Falter
This isn’t just an energy shock—it’s a structural hit to the Gulf growth model, writes @anasalhajji Deals are collapsing, exports are stalled, capital is coming home. This goes far beyond oil. #Geopolitics #Energy #Gulf #Macro
Bailing Out Russia for “Peace” Is a Losing Proposition
In February 2026 Russia unveiled the “Dmitriev package,” a $14 trillion economic reintegration proposal that promises sanctions relief, Western market access and joint energy ventures. The article argues the plan is unrealistic and overlooks Russia’s war‑driven economy, where defense and security...
Bob Brackett Returns: War in Iran Reshapes Global Gas Flows
NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the return of the legend Bob Brackett @tracyalloway and I talk to Bernstein’s top commodities researcher about war in Iran and how natural gas flows are being reshaped all around the world. https://t.co/DlSfweVsgl
China’s Multibillion-Dollar Minerals Investment Lifts Foreign Economies: Report
Since 2023, China has poured more than $120 billion into overseas mining and mineral‑processing projects, covering lithium, rare‑earth metals and battery components. The Australian think‑tank Climate Energy Finance says the outflow fuels clean‑energy deployment in developing economies, supplying inputs for solar,...
Qatar Can Keep Goods Flowing Amid Tensions, Customs Chief Says
Qatar’s customs chief assures that supply chains remain secure despite regional tensions, citing strategic reserves, digital customs systems, and multiple transport routes. The Al Nadeeb electronic platform and recent upgrades have accelerated clearance and increased transparency. Coordination with the GCC Customs...
Why Vietnam Is the World's Most Exciting Emerging Market: MoneyWeek Talks
Dominic Scriven, founder of Dragon Capital, argues Vietnam is the world’s most exciting emerging market. In a MoneyWeek Talks podcast, he highlighted Vietnam’s robust GDP growth, youthful population, and ongoing regulatory reforms that are attracting foreign investors. Scriven also shared...
Why Vietnam Is the World's Most Exciting Emerging Market
In this episode, Chris Sheldt‑Hoheaton talks with Dominic Scriven, founder and chair of Dragon Capital, about Vietnam’s evolution from a war‑torn, isolated economy to the region’s most dynamic emerging market. Scriven recounts his personal journey—from learning Vietnamese in Hanoi to...
L Catterton Bullish on India, but There Won't Be Any Blind Bets
L Catterton is launching a $400 million India Fund I, backed by a $200 million greenshoe, to double down on the country’s consumer sector. The firm will target founder‑led, differentiated brands in structurally attractive categories while shunning businesses that chase top‑line growth without...
India’s FII Holdings Dwarfed by Three Chip Giants
FII holding in India: approx. US$ 750 billion FII holding in just Samsung Electronics, TSMC and Hynix: US$ 1.75 trillion Source: Nomura How much India has lost in past 2-3 yrs on a relative basis is crazy.
China’s Strong Start Hides Uneven Growth Amid External Risks
Chinese Economy’s Bright Start Masks Uneven Growth as External Risks Loom—Data released showed industrial production rebounded on surging exports https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL
Nigeria’s President Tinubu Makes Historic UK State Visit to Revive Trade
President Bola Tinubu and First Lady Oluremi Tinubu arrived in the United Kingdom on Wednesday for a two‑day state visit hosted by King Charles III and Queen Camilla at Windsor Castle. It is the first Nigerian state visit since 1989...
China's Central Asian Influence Extends Beyond Extractive Industries
I'm afraid China's economic presence in Central Asia went way beyond oil, gas, and mining some time ago. If folks still think it's all just about extractive industries, they've missed quite a bit about the Chinese presence.
China’s State Banks Shift Forward FX Book Post‑2010
The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT
Sri Lanka Mandates Weekly Wednesday Shutdowns to Conserve Fuel
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake announced on Monday that Sri Lanka will close all public institutions, schools and universities every Wednesday, creating a four‑day work week to conserve fuel. The emergency measure takes effect immediately amid soaring oil prices of around...
Cuba Endures Islandwide Blackout as Energy Crisis Deepens
On Monday, March 16, 2026, Cuban officials announced a complete, islandwide blackout affecting the nation’s 11 million residents. The Ministry of Energy and Mines posted on X that the electrical system was fully disconnected and that investigations were underway, noting no...
Middle East Tensions Push Oil Past $100, Raising Energy Risk Premium for Emerging Markets
On March 16‑17, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that NATO allies were unwilling to join a U.S.-led escort coalition for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude above $103 a barrel. The disruption threatens roughly 13 million barrels...
Geopolitical Risk Spikes to 21st‑century Worst Levels
This measure of geopolitical risk just hit levels that put the current moment in the same league as the most dangerous moments of the 21st century. https://t.co/7ciy5RuN8b
Turkey Emerges as Revived Route for Iraqi Oil Amid Hormuz Crisis
Iraq announced the rapid revival of the 600‑mile Kirkuk‑Ceyhan pipeline, aiming to resume crude shipments to Turkey and bypass the Hormuz bottleneck caused by the Iran‑US‑Israel conflict. The oil ministry expects the line to be operational within a week, targeting...
US-China; PRC-Vietnam; H200s; China Cuts the "Apple Tax"; Chinese Modernization and 15th Five-Year Plan
President Trump indicated his long‑awaited summit with Xi Jinping could be pushed back five to six weeks, likely occurring after April 20, as China signals tentative approval but remains cautious amid the ongoing war in Europe. A senior Chinese delegation...
Sinocism Live on US-China Relations with the FT’s Demetri Sevastopulo
In this live Sinocism episode, FT China correspondent Demetri Sevastopulo discusses the delayed Trump‑China summit, attributing the postponement to domestic political concerns and the ongoing Iran conflict rather than bilateral tensions. He outlines the key players shaping U.S. China policy...
Episode 48: What Conflict in the Middle East Means for Your Portfolio
In Episode 48, Alex Jung and Wesley Blight discuss how the recent Middle East conflict—particularly the direct confrontations involving the US, Israel, and Iran—affects investment portfolios. They explain that while energy prices and inflation expectations spike due to disrupted oil...
No Severe Shocks Despite Crises, Says Sitharaman as She Highlights India's Economic Strength
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told the Rajya Sabha that India’s economy has withstood the pandemic, supply‑chain strains, the Russia‑Ukraine war, and the current West Asia conflict without severe shocks. She highlighted the passage of the Appropriation Bill 2026, which adds...
Will South Korea’s Epic Bull Market Survive the Energy Shock?
South Korea’s KOSPI index has exploded 138% in the past year, soaring past the 6,000 mark and outpacing global peers. The rally fulfills President Lee Jae Myung’s campaign promise of a 5,000‑point index, turning a bold pledge into reality within...
China Cannot Escape the Energy Shock
China is grappling with a global energy shock that has widened the price gap between its domestic fuel and the higher rates in neighboring Hong Kong. The disparity, driven by lingering subsidies and import dependence, prompts Hong Kong motorists to cross the...
Takeaways From China’s National People’s Congress Meeting
China’s 2024 Two Sessions highlighted a paradoxical policy mix as Beijing seeks to revive a slowing economy. Leaders stressed boosting domestic consumption while simultaneously ramping up state‑led investment in advanced manufacturing and strategic technologies. The 15th Five‑Year Plan reinforced this...
Brazil Steps Up Bond Market Intervention as Oil Upends Rates
Brazil's National Treasury announced an expanded bond market intervention after a sharp rise in oil prices lifted inflation expectations and pushed sovereign yields upward. The authority increased direct purchases and offered additional liquidity to stabilize benchmark rates and limit volatility....
Tony Elumelu to Spearhead Macron's New France-Africa Initiative
French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed Nigerian billionaire Tony Elumelu to head the newly created Africa‑France Impact Coalition, a forum designed to deepen private‑sector collaboration between France and Africa. The coalition will be highlighted at the France‑Africa summit in Nairobi...
China, Russia Discuss Boosting Transport Links as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Shipping
Amid heightened Middle East conflict disrupting traditional maritime corridors, China and Russia convened the inaugural China‑Russia Logistics Business Forum in Moscow to explore deeper logistics cooperation. The dialogue emphasized expanding the Arctic Northern Sea Route, leveraging ports such as Arkhangelsk...
The Indonesia-US Agreement: A ‘Reciprocal’ Trade Deal That Isn’t
The Indonesia‑U.S. Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), signed in February 2026, obliges Indonesia to eliminate tariffs on 99 percent of American goods, purchase billions in U.S. energy and aircraft, and surrender digital‑tax authority, while the United States faces a 19 percent tariff on...
Uganda: Copper Is the New Oil, but Will Uganda Be Norway or Nigeria?
Global demand for copper and other transition metals is set to triple by 2030, prompting a scramble for new sources. Uganda’s dormant Kilembe copper mine and newly identified mineral belts could supply millions of tonnes of copper and rare‑earth elements....
China Funds 9 Border Posts for Tajikistan as Frontier Violence Escalates
China has pledged a non‑repayable $61 million grant to build nine border posts along Tajikistan’s Afghan frontier, covering 17,109 sq m of observation posts and headquarters. The project follows a series of lethal attacks on Chinese workers in late 2025, which heightened Beijing’s security...
Politicians to Vote Against Their Own Interests
President Claudia Sheinbaum’s ambitious electoral reform was blocked by congressional allies, prompting a scaled‑back Plan B that still forces legislators at every level to slash salaries and perks. The new proposal leaves party budgets and leadership control over candidate selection untouched,...
Massive CTA and Systematic Sell‑offs Set to Pressure Stocks
From GS on Flows: - CTAs Sold $80B over the last month - “Length has gone from >8 out of 10 to ~6.5 now, projected to go near 4.5-5 all else equal” - Systematics are estimated to sell $70B in the next *week*...
Closing Hormuz Guarantees Outcome; Only Duration Matters
Keep Hormuz closed long enough and it is a mathematical and logistical certainty. The only debate is "How long is 'long enough' to make that happen?"
Pakistan Faces Highest Energy Risk if Hormuz Closes
Pakistan looks like the Asian energy importer that is most at risk because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/7rDXmrxVqy
Policymakers Miss Logistics Impact of Closing Hormuz
Every US policymaker & investor we see talks about "tactics": How many Iranian ships we've sunk, how many launchers we've destroyed.... ...while ignoring what keeping Hormuz closed will do to global "logistics", even as Iran openly admits "logistics" is their whole...
Iran Keeps Shipping Oil, China Still Receives It
PHOTO(S) OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil — and Iran its getting (some of) its money. Three weeks into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. (No damage visible at this resolution) Photo @CopernicusEU...
FMS Investors Hit Peak Commodity, EM Equity Overweights
BofA: In March, FMS investors were 34% net overweight commodities, the most since Apr'22. Net 53% were overweight emerging market equities, the highest since Feb’21. https://t.co/g0RUiBm0cN
Pakistan Faces LNG Shortage Within a Month
Pakistan’s LNG supply at risk of running out in less than a month 🇵🇰 🚢 Officials warn that there may not be enough gas to meet power needs after April 14 Pakistan imports 99% of its LNG from Qatar. But supplies...