Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
India & China “Bypass” Iran’s Near-Blockade of Strait of Hormuz; Secure Exceptions as Oil Traffic Drops By 95%
Iran has effectively sealed the Strait of Hormuz, slashing daily oil‑tanker traffic by roughly 95% since early March 2026. The closure has pushed crude prices above $100 a barrel and disrupted about 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Despite the blockade, India and China have secured limited, case‑by‑case exemptions, allowing a handful of their flagged vessels to transit the chokepoint. Iran’s IRGC now operates a de‑facto “safe corridor” for approved ships, but security remains uncertain.
China, US Pledge New Mechanisms to Boost Trade
People's Daily: "China and the US agreed to explore the establishment of working mechanisms to expand economic and trade cooperation, continue to make good use of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences,...
FPIs Pull Out ₹35,475 Cr This Week From Indian Markets, March Outflows Hit ₹88,180 Cr
Foreign portfolio investors withdrew ₹35,475 crore from Indian equities this week, taking March’s cumulative outflow to ₹88,180 crore – the highest monthly net withdrawal recorded in 2026. The sell‑off accelerated after a Monday outflow of ₹10,827 crore and ended with a Friday dump...
Iran Ready to Let Japanese Vessels Transit Hormuz, Kyodo Reports
Iran has signaled willingness to permit Japanese‑flagged vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for global oil shipments. The offer follows phone talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Japanese officials amid heightened tensions from the...
Prabowo Pushes All-Electric Transport to Cut Import Reliance
President Prabowo Subianto announced a nationwide push to replace all personal, public and commercial transport with electric, solar‑powered vehicles. The move aims to curb Indonesia’s reliance on imported fuel, which reached 232,417 kiloliters per day in 2025, and to revive...
EWZ: The Case For Brazilian Equities In 2026
Analysts upgrade iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) to BUY, citing the central bank’s monetary easing and expanding trade ties with China and the EU. The fund offers a 4.2% dividend yield and stands to benefit from the upcoming EU‑Mercosur free‑trade...
EWZ: The Case For Brazilian Equities In 2026
FinHeim Research rates the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) a BUY, citing anticipated monetary easing and expanding trade ties with China and the EU. The fund trades at $35.06, offers a 4.22% dividend yield and holds $9.3 B in assets, positioning...
US Lifts Iran Oil Sanctions, but Supply Stays Scarce
US suspends Iran oil sanctions for a month, allowing sale of all barrels on water as of March 20. Another band-aid. There are no more than 30 million barrels of Iranian oil in floating storage waiting for buyers, as per ship-tracking...
China's Trust Sector Abandons Risky Real‑Estate Debt Model
Caixin: "Driven by a regulatory crackdown on risk in the financial system, China's multitrillion-dollar trust industry is being forced to abandon its old, highly profitable model of funneling funds into non-standard debt for real estate projects and local governments." https://t.co/eN5eDafjR4
No Verifiable Details on Trump‑Netanyahu Split over Iran Gas Field Attack
Current news feeds contain no confirmed reports of a disagreement between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding a gas field attack in Iran. Details were not disclosed in the provided sources, leaving the claim...
China's Fixed-Asset Investment Grows 1.8% Early 2024
1/8 Caixin: "China’s fixed-asset investment (FAI) returned to growth in the first two months of this year, rising 1.8% year on year, beating expectations as infrastructure spending jumped." https://t.co/cCOIgPDXNn
Our Underappreciated International Reserve System
The latest NBER paper shows a pronounced shift in the composition of global foreign‑exchange reserves. The U.S. dollar’s share slipped below 57% in Q3 2025, while gold overtook the euro to become the second‑largest reserve asset. Central banks are diversifying into...
Brewers’ Global Search for Growth Opportunities
The beer industry in the United States and Western Europe has stalled at pre‑COVID volume levels, reflecting a broader shift toward low‑alcohol drinks and reduced consumption. Analysts label this a long‑term structural stagnation, prompting brewers to look beyond mature markets....
Trump and Netanyahu Clash over Iran Gas Field Strike, Raising Oil Market Volatility
President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have publicly diverged on how to respond to a recent Iranian gas‑field attack. Trump warned of possible U.S. action against Iranian oil infrastructure, while Netanyahu urged restraint, prompting uncertainty in emerging‑market...
In the Iran Crisis, the IMF’s Voice Is Urgently Needed
The IMF has been slow to deliver a comprehensive analysis of the Iran crisis and the de‑facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, despite its mandate to safeguard global financial stability. Standard IMF publications such as the World Economic Outlook...
Oil Waivers Risk Sustaining Russia’s War Effort Amid the Iran War
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a short‑term general license allowing the purchase of Russian crude already on board vessels, effective March 12 through April 11. The waiver follows a similar 30‑day exemption for India and aims to dampen market turbulence caused...
Volatility Easing as Traders Adjust to War
Thai market volatility has softened as traders price in the early stages of the Middle East conflict. The SET index traded within a 1,400‑1,450 point band, while petrochemical and upstream energy stocks posted the strongest gains. Power, beverage and healthcare...
The Middle East Is One of the World’s Fastest Growing Luxury Markets—And the War in Iran May Cut Its Sales...
The Middle East, accounting for about 6% of global luxury sales, has been one of the sector’s fastest‑growing markets thanks to a surge in ultra‑wealthy consumers. Bernstein Research now forecasts a 50% plunge in regional luxury sales this month as...
War Turns Energy Shock Into Long-Term Economic Threat
Consensus is shifting, and rightly so: This third week of the war has fueled a shift from a short-term energy disruption to long-term structural damage. With that, the broader fallout—also marked by the non-linear risks associated with tipping points and multiple equilibrium...
Iran War Puts Global Energy Markets on the Brink of a Worst-Case Scenario
The war between Israel and Iran has escalated into direct strikes on oil and gas infrastructure, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and pushing crude prices above $100 a barrel. Missile attacks have damaged the South Pars gas field and...
Iran Is Sanctioning America
Iran has begun throttling oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz from pro‑U.S. Gulf states while continuing to export its own crude to China, effectively imposing de‑facto sanctions on the United States. The maneuver reduces the volume of oil that...
Six Nations Mobilize to Counter Iran's Hormuz Blockade as Emerging Markets Plunge
Six countries signaled a coordinated effort to challenge Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump's threat, pushing crude above $100 a barrel. The escalation triggered a more than 3% fall in major emerging‑market indices, a record‑low...
Boxer Won't Reach Gulf Until Mid‑April, Oil Delay
Assuming the USS Boxer is heading to the Middle East, and considering that she only left San Diego two days ago, she won't be near the Persian Gulf until mid-April. If the reinforcements are intended to reopen the Strait of...
Anti Dumping Duty Suggested on Spandex, Raw Material for Foam Imported From China, Vietnam
India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies has recommended five‑year anti‑dumping duties on spandex and flexible slabstock polyol imported from China and Vietnam. The spandex levy ranges from $794 to $2,033 per metric tonne, while polyol duties are set between $72...
Daily Memo: Belarusian Fertilizers, US-Japan Relations
The United States announced it will lift sanctions on two major Belarusian fertilizer producers and two state‑owned banks, including Belinvestbank, after a meeting between President Alexander Lukashenko and U.S. special envoy John Cole. The move is framed as a response to...
Bond Yields Surge Globally, Curve Bears Flattening
Global bond yields continue to climb: the UK 10-year has touched 5%, while the German Bund has crossed 3% and the US stands at 4.36%. Compounding the warning signs for the global economy, this comes amid an ongoing bear flattening...
Nigeria Faces Iran War Oil Price Conundrum
Nigeria’s oil revenues are set to surge as the Iran‑Ukraine war pushes crude above $100 a barrel, a windfall for the country’s export‑driven economy. Yet the nation still imports most refined fuels, so higher global prices translate into steeper pump...
Africa’s Strategic Moment: Turning the Iran–USA–Israel Crisis Into Continental Opportunity
The recent Iran‑USA‑Israel escalation, highlighted by Operation Epic Fury and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has halted the flow of roughly 20 million barrels of oil daily, unsettling global energy markets. The disruption creates a strategic opening for Africa...
Hong Kong Should Use ‘Safe Haven’ Status to Draw Capital From Gulf: Agency Chief
InvestHK director Alpha Lau urged Hong Kong to leverage its safe‑haven reputation to attract capital fleeing the Middle East conflict, noting a shift of firms from Dubai to the city. She highlighted growing interest from Gulf high‑net‑worth individuals and sovereign...
Lifting Sanctions Boosts Iran's Oil Profits, Not Global Prices
Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and...
S&P Drops 5.4% YTD, Losses Concentrated in Two Weeks
Markets have turned. S&P down 5.4% YTD — all of that loss in the last two weeks. War premium showing up fast. Watch this space. https://t.co/D3wvQr7z9M
US F-35 Stealth Fighter Damaged Over Iran, Pilot Lands Safely
A US F-35 Lightning II was struck during a combat sortie over central Iran and forced to land at a regional base, with the pilot unharmed. US Central Command confirmed the emergency landing while Iran’s IRGC claimed a successful strike,...
US Ground Troops in Iran Trigger Market Sell‑off
🚨 UPDATE THE U.S. IS PREPARING TO DEPLOY GROUND FORCES IN IRAN. People are now expecting the war to go on for months. This is why markets are dumping. https://t.co/63v1BaTPgn
War with Iran Could Collapse Global Financial System
If I wanted to discredit US neocons & their foreign sponsors for a generation, I would give them exactly what they have always wanted: A big war with Iran, at their urging… …that leads directly to a collapse of global financial...
Malaysia Cracks Trump’s Tariff Wall
Malaysia announced it is terminating its customs agreement with the United States after a Supreme Court ruling declared the IEEPA‑based tariffs illegal. The original pact imposed a flat 19% tariff on most Malaysian exports, a rate now effectively cut in...
China’s $250B Marshall‑Plan Fuels EV Surge in Emerging Markets
This is exactly what James Gutman predicted on the latest episode of @EnergyEmpirePod. EVs are selling out in the top 50 emerging markets given the $250B “Marshall Plan” being rolled out by China. https://t.co/75BxCTbmpS
China Gains First Benefit as Iran War Cuts Oil Imports
CHINA ALREADY GOT ITS FIRST WIN FROM THE WAR IN IRAN In today's newsletter, I wrote about how the long term trend of countries reducing their oil imports by substituting them with Chinese tech is already accelerating since the start of...
Conditions for US-Russia Rapprochement Fall Into Place
Seven months after the historic Alaska summit, the United States issued a 30‑day waiver permitting limited sales of sanctioned Russian crude, a move aimed at offsetting oil shortages caused by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The waiver signals...
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Bessent un-sanctioned Russian oil AFTER WaPo reported Russia was helping Iran targeting US assets the way the US has been helping UKR target Russian assets... ...& yet Wall Street consensus overwhelmingly remains that "Bessent has everything under control." Fade that view, hard
Extended Hormuz Closure Threatens Sovereign Debt, Consumer Credit
If Hormuz stays closed another 3-4 weeks, it all begins to crumble...into an already-teetering global sovereign debt problem & consumer credit problem. Based on what I'm hearing, it is highly likely Hormuz will remain closed for at least another 3-4 weeks. Let's...
Kindiki Invites China VP Han to Kenya
Chinese Vice President Han Zheng will travel to Kenya, South Africa and Seychelles from March 22 to 30, at the invitation of Kenya Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and his counterparts. The high‑level tour is framed as a key exchange to...
Oil Futures Signal Long-Term Impact From Iran War
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years. https://t.co/j23M3zH7AL
Sea‑based Oil Reserves Dwindling, Iran Holds One‑third
This is a very important story: “…The amount of oil stored at sea — a vital buffer for markets — is running down fast…” About 1/3 of what’s left is Iranian. https://t.co/zS7v0338Ay
Selective Outrage Won’t End the Iran War
The UN Security Council issued a resolution condemning Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, labeling them a breach of international law. The article argues the vote is one‑sided, focusing on protecting Gulf oil flows and...
Russia Shares Ukraine War Tactics with Iran, Threatens US
Russia is taking what they've learned on the battlefield in the Ukraine War and sharing that with Iran. This is not a new strategy for the Russians, but it is already spelling trouble for the US. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/8OrxIIE2pk #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/R8FpGDhPFq
A Bridge Too Far
Trump signaled a possible off‑ramp for U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, prompting a modest dip in crude prices as Israel paused further strikes. Gulf hardliners, however, remain wary of a resilient Iran that could continue coercive oil tactics despite war...
Dangote Demand Soars As War Disrupts Africa Fuel Supply
Dangote’s 650,000‑barrel‑per‑day refinery, now two years operational, is seeing soaring demand as the Ukraine war disrupts traditional fuel imports to Africa. Roughly 75% of its output is reserved for Nigeria, leaving limited capacity for export to neighboring economies. Countries across...
Seoul Harnessing Iran War to End the ‘Korea Discount’
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is leveraging the Iran war‑induced market volatility to push sweeping capital‑market reforms aimed at erasing the long‑standing “Korea discount.” The government announced bans on duplicate listings, which account for roughly 20% of domestic market...
Trump’s Chaos Drives Europe to Forge Ties with China
Chaos unleashed by Trump has Europeans building bridges with China https://t.co/pFSYzBf1W0 via @jendeben @ArneDelfs https://t.co/jlniO6pJgx
Southeast Asia’s Railway Expansion
China has become the primary driver of Southeast Asia’s railway build‑out, financing and constructing most cross‑border projects under the Belt and Road Initiative. The newly completed Jakarta‑Bandung high‑speed line, a $7.2 billion venture largely funded by the China Development Bank, is...