Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
As Global Yuan Use Expands, Questions Resurface About China’s World-Leading Forex Reserves
A Renmin University report urges China to trim its $3.42 trillion foreign‑exchange reserves, which sit at roughly 16% of GDP, to a more moderate level of about 11.5% of GDP as the yuan gains global traction. The paper argues that a smaller, diversified reserve base will support yuan internationalisation and reduce reliance on low‑yield U.S. Treasuries. It highlights ongoing shifts, including a record low in U.S. Treasury holdings and a steady rise in gold reserves. The recommendations align with China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan, which emphasizes broader yuan use and capital‑account liberalisation.
Vietnam PM Visits Russia to Sign Energy Deal Amid Iran War Disruption
Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh travelled to Moscow to sign a suite of energy agreements, including oil‑and‑gas cooperation and a nuclear power plant partnership, as Hanoi seeks to bolster fuel reserves. The deal covers trade, investment, exploration, extraction and...
West Asia Conflict Triggers Sharp Foreign Outflows From Indian Stocks, Hits Market Sentiment
Foreign portfolio investors withdrew a large sum from Indian equities amid the escalating West Asia war, pressuring the rupee and dampening emerging‑market risk appetite. The turmoil also forced airlines to cut West Asia flights and highlighted India's reliance on imported...
What’s Happening in EM: Oil Spikes Upend Local Bonds (Podcast)
Bloomberg’s Emerging Markets podcast notes that soaring oil prices have forced a revision of global interest‑rate expectations, unsettling the once‑popular strategy of investing in emerging‑market local‑currency bonds. The energy price shock is prompting investors to unwind positions as higher rates...
US Markets Hold Up as Global Stocks Falter Amid War
This WSJ chart comparing the decline in US and international stock markets reflects the underlying economic reality: While the global economy is reeling from the Middle East War, the US is relatively better positioned. This is especially true for energy where the...
South vs West: African Banking Majors Scramble for East African Market
African banking giants from Nigeria and South Africa are accelerating acquisitions and greenfield launches in East Africa, drawn by Kenya’s role as a regional financial hub and the trade‑finance potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area. The Central Bank...
Iran Rakes $2.5B From Oil Amid War
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, it’s still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) that’s a ~$2.5...
Europe’s Trade with Iran: Which Countries Do the Most Business with Tehran?
EU‑Iran trade collapsed to €3.72 billion in 2025, the lowest level in two decades, as renewed sanctions tightened economic ties. Germany remains the dominant EU partner, accounting for 31.8% of the remaining trade, followed by Italy and the Netherlands, together representing...
Iran War a Setback for Super Returns as Investors Brace for Fallout
The escalation of the US‑Israel conflict with Iran has pushed global equity markets down more than 5%, dragging Australian superannuation returns lower. Median growth‑option super funds fell about 3% in March, leaving the financial‑year return at roughly 3.3%, while balanced...
As Iran War Disrupts the Gulf, India's Growth Story Faces New Risks
India’s rapid economic rise is now threatened by the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran, which jeopardizes the Gulf’s oil and gas supplies that account for 40 % of its oil and 80 % of its gas imports. Disruptions to export routes and a...
Could Ultra-Precise Harvest Forecast Give China an Advantage in Iran War Fallout?
China’s grain‑output forecasting system, honed over 46 years, now predicts national harvests with sub‑0.2% error, far outpacing the 5‑10% margins typical in the West. The model’s April release gives Beijing a six‑month lead before the autumn harvest, allowing pre‑emptive moves...
Premier Li Qiang Calls for a Global Pledge to Open up, While ‘Power Politics’ Runs Rampant
At the opening of the China Development Forum 2026, Premier Li Qiang called for a global pledge to deepen economic openness, warning that protectionism is not a cure for current challenges. He indirectly rebuked the United States, suggesting its trade...
Will the Houthis Join Iran in War Against Israel and the US?
The Houthis, known as Ansar Allah, have so far avoided direct involvement in the US‑Israel‑Iran war but recent statements suggest they are reconsidering. Their political bureau said “all options are on the table,” hinting at possible alignment with Iran against...
Middle East War Expands Threat to Global Supply Chains
This, from Bloomberg, illustrates how the Middle East War threatens a widening set of global supply chains. (On Monday, the FT is scheduled to post my column on a separate global risk that has yet to receive sufficient attention: the likely...
China, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore Led Pre‑
But it is more accurate -- Before the latest oil shock the really big surpluses were China, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore (more an investment income dollar but ... )
Why Brazilian Excellence Inspires the Global South — But Also the Global North
Brazil has turned its natural endowments into a strategic advantage by building a hybrid capitalist model anchored in family ownership, deep sectoral integration, and dense institutional networks. This architecture enables firms to weather currency crises, political upheavals, and regulatory volatility...
Trade Slowdown Milder than Expected, but Conflict Threatens Sharper Dip
Global merchandise trade will slow less this year than the WTO predicted, but risks a sharper downturn if prolonged Middle East conflict keeps energy prices elevated https://t.co/nhU9axrKFm via @b_muzz https://t.co/Vo7S63a3JN
Iran Risk Unpriced, Trump‑Netanyahu May Ignite Nuclear War
Iran risk is still not priced in. And neither is Trump-Netanyahu’s potentially diabolical reaction: US-Israel nuclear war
China Reroutes US‑Bound Exports Through India, Shaking Emerging Market Trade Flows
Chinese exporters are channeling goods destined for the United States through Indian and other Asian intermediaries to evade high U.S. tariffs, according to WTO data. The move is inflating India‑U.S. trade volumes and altering supply‑chain routes, while raising concerns about...
U.S. Leaders Debate China Without Ever Visiting
Washington Is Flying Blind on China Americans talk incessantly about the need to compete with their country’s greatest rival and how to do it. Yet many U.S. policymakers have never been to China. Impacts quality of the debate clearly... https://t.co/ghNp4u7uqt
Trump, Iran Threaten Gulf Energy Targets, Raising Global Crisis Risks
TEL AVIV/JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran threatened to escalate their war by attacking energy facilities in the Gulf, a potential widening of hostilities which could deepen a regional crisis and add to concerns in...
‘They Want to Colonise Us’: Brazil’s Lula Warns of Foreign Interference
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva warned at the CELAC summit that foreign powers are attempting to “colonise” Latin America by targeting critical minerals and rare earths. He cited U.S. actions such as the January 3 abduction of Venezuela’s Nicolás...
China's Premier Acknowledges Trade Surplus Amid Export Surge
1/4 Bloomberg: "Chinese Premier Li Qiang has responded to growing calls from trading partners to address a rising trade surplus, with China’s exports continuing to surge in the first two months of the year." https://t.co/EMOs1RWaAX
Trump's Iran Ultimatum Threatens Supply Chain Stability
Trump gives Iran a 48 hour ultimatum and warning. Iran replies. Will things get worse? Supply of supply chains.
Blended Capital Is Kenya’s Digital Growth Engine
Kenya’s digital economy is booming, but infrastructure gaps threaten its momentum. Konza Technopolis, a 5,000‑acre smart‑city project, is being built through public‑private partnerships to provide core utilities, roads, and digital services. Phase One, commissioned in October, delivered essential power, water, and...
Modi’s Calm Highlights India’s Strategic Autonomy Advantage
While the US and Israel escalate, Modi plays it cool. INDIA'S STRATEGIC AUTONOMY = A WINNING HAND. https://t.co/T87Vj30GN9
Iran's Qatar Attack Fuels US LNG Demand Surge
Iran’s attacks on Qatar’s LNG export plant could be one of the biggest tailwinds yet to the fast-growing US LNG sector 🇺🇸 🚢 🇹🇼 Taiwan said it plans to buy more LNG from the US from June 🇧🇩 Bangladesh is exploring...
Trump Administration Grants One‑Month Waiver on 140 Million Barrels of Iranian Oil
The Trump administration issued a 30‑day license that temporarily lifts sanctions on about 140 million barrels of Iranian oil already en route, ending April 19. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the move will add roughly 140 million barrels to global markets and help...
China No Fixed Taiwan Timeline, No 2027 Invasion Plan
The US intelligence community now assesses that China has no fixed timeline for unification with Taiwan and that no invasion of Taiwan is planned for 2027. I'm no China expert but this dovetails with how I see Xi and the upside...
Shockwave of War Is Rippling Through the Global Economy
The outbreak of war in the Middle East is sending shockwaves through the global economy, prompting the first coordinated health check via business surveys across the United States and the euro zone. Bloomberg’s median forecast expects every purchasing managers index...
War Damages 39 Energy Sites Across Nine Nations
The New York Times on one of the major economic effects of the War: “At least 39 energy oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites in nine countries have been damaged since the United States and Israel began...
Rising Rhetoric and Deepening Gulf Tensions Push the Middle East to the Brink
Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field marked a decisive escalation, signaling that no energy asset is off‑limits. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on energy sites in Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, turning a shadow conflict...
Defense Secretary Hegseth’s Biblical Rhetoric Triggers Congressional Probe Amid Iran War
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth quoted Psalm 144 and called Iranian clerics “desperate and scrambling” as the United States and Israel entered a war with Iran. Allegations that military leaders are invoking biblical prophecy prompted 30 Democratic lawmakers to ask the...
Is Museveni’s $1.5bn ‘Mega Airport’ Project a Real Deal?
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni announced a $1.5 billion privately financed mega‑airport in Mbarara, aimed at becoming a transit hub between Asia and Latin America. The project, led by Base Seven and backed by Chinese construction firms and the UK‑registered Blackrock Uwekeza, plans a 21 sq km...
Defense Secretary Hegseth’s Evangelical Rhetoric Sparks Congressional Probe Amid Iran War
Pete Hegseth’s overtly Christian comments on the U.S.-Iran war have led 30 Democratic lawmakers to ask the Pentagon inspector general to investigate alleged biblical‑prophecy briefings. Critics say his rhetoric risks blurring the line between church and state and could inflame...
Gulf Producers Urge US to Tackle Hormuz Closure Head-On
Gulf oil producers are urging the United States to confront the Hormuz blockage directly, warning that temporary "oil‑on‑water" licences aid Iran while constraining regional exporters. They cite roughly 140 million barrels of Iranian crude stranded at sea and argue that without...
China Is Quietly Looking Weaker
The author revisits the prevailing belief that the 21st century will be dominated by China, drawing parallels to the 1980s hype around Japan. While most Western observers still view China as an unstoppable economic and geopolitical force, the writer now...
Defense Secretary Hegseth’s Evangelical Rhetoric Triggers Congressional Probe Amid Iran War
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s overtly Christian language during the U.S.‑Israel war with Iran has led 30 Democratic lawmakers to request a Pentagon Inspector General probe into alleged biblical‑prophecy briefings for troops. Critics say the rhetoric risks secular military norms and...
Iran's Escalation Risks Signal Broader Regional Instability
Iran Intelligence Briefing | 6 March 2026 In this latest intelligence briefing, David breaks down the evolving situation around Iran, the escalation risks that matter most, and the wider regional implications. When events are moving quickly, understanding the deeper pattern is just...
Trump Demands Iran Open Hormuz Strait in 48 Hours
TRUMP GIVES IRAN 48 HOURS TO OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ=== this ain't no tariffs deadline
West Asia Conflict May Trigger Global Inflation Shock if Disruptions Spread; India Relatively Insulated: SBI Research
SBI Research warns that an expanding West Asia conflict could reignite global inflation by disrupting energy markets, trade routes and supply chains. While the immediate price impact may be modest, prolonged hostilities risk broader macro‑economic fallout. India appears relatively insulated...
China Onshore Stocks Crowned Top Asset Amid Conflict
With the onset of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, my good friend Chris Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies, believes China’s onshore stocks are the top assets. CHINA = WINNER.
US‑Israeli War Triggers Asia‑wide Economic Shock
From fuel rationing in Sri Lanka to restaurant closures in India, flight cancellations in Thailand, and food and fertilizer shocks across Asia -- the ripple effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran are global. THE US-ISRAELI WAR'S COLLATERAL DAMAGE IS MASSIVE. https://t.co/jD1WHbQj6T
China Won’t Be the Biggest Loser if Hormuz Closes
Many commentators on Iran war have seemingly not thought any further ahead than “China is hurt most by Hormuz closing” Below is just one small example of why that view is so wrong 👇
Politicians Hide True War Costs—Hundreds of Billions Missing
When politicians quote war costs, they're usually giving you the Pentagon's grocery bill, not the real economic damage. Oil shocks, lost jobs, delayed investment - the true cost isn't billions, it's hundreds of billions. Always ask: what are they not counting? https://t.co/Q56IHqdfvB
Iran's Pre‑War Oil Output Peaks, Boosting Condensates for Asia
CHART OF THE DAY: Despite sanctions, ahead of the war, Iran's total oil production had hit a 46-year high. Although most of the attention is on crude, Iran has focused in expanding its output of condensates and natural gas liquids —...
Treasury's “Stranded” Claim Exaggerated; Most Iranian Oil Headed to China
US Treasury says there are 140 million barrels of Iranian oil "stranded" on the water. That's misleading -- if not false. There're about 100 million barrels of Iranian oil on their way to China, and probably another 40 million on...
China's Decline Signals Overlooked Amid Chinese Century Narrative
The Chinese Century is now the conventional wisdom. Previous narratives of China's peak and decline proved premature. But I see some definite signs that China is growing weaker, and only a few people seem to be paying attention. https://t.co/PUBIvyJcaw
Trump Offers $15B Iran Compensation via Oil Sanctions Lift
Trump is dangling $15 billion in compensation in front of Iran by lifting floating oil sanctions, writes @TankerTrackers This is the weirdest war ever It’s coercion, improvisation, and market panic all at once #Iran #Oil #Trump #EnergyMarkets #Sanctions
Over Half of Chinese Car Dealers Lose Money in 2025
Caixin: "The China Automobile Dealers Association said in a report that 55.7% of dealerships lost money last year, up 14 percentage points from 2024, as intense competition forced them to sell vehicles below cost." https://t.co/5TsYQRNMxx