Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
US Federal Debt Becoming ‘Alarmingly Unsustainable’ as Iran War Fuels Spending: Analysts
U.S. sovereign debt surged to $39 trillion, a level analysts deem alarmingly unsustainable, as war‑related spending on Iran adds pressure. The debt rose $2 trillion in just a few months, with Biden’s administration issuing $4.7 trillion of new 10‑year debt since 2021. Experts warn that a growing share of tax revenue—about 15 cents per dollar—will be consumed by debt service, limiting funds for other programs. If trends continue, the debt could breach $40 trillion before the upcoming midterm elections.
China’s Resilience Disproves Collapse Forecasts; Models Need Revision
How is this new, @zriboua? The “China collapse” call has been made for decades Mostly because it doesn’t fit Western models. Yet it hasn’t broken. Maybe the model is wrong, not China. #China #Economics #Macro #Geopolitics #Trade
Southeast Asia's Mass Affluent Opens New Wealth Advisory Market
🌏Capturing Asia’s rising wealth: A massive opportunity has opened to advise #SoutheastAsia’s growing mass affluent segment, which domestic banks have struggled to penetrate. Thanks to @FT_PWM for publishing Liam Reeve’s and my insights: https://t.co/r16mLZ2lEB #WealthManagement #PrivateBanking #WealthTech
India Maps Supply Chain Gaps in Pharma, Textiles, Fertilizers Amid West Asia War
India’s commerce ministry has launched a comprehensive audit of critical supply chains in pharma, textiles and fertilizers as the West Asia war threatens global trade. A detailed questionnaire asks firms to disclose import dependence, source countries and the substitutability of...
Qatar's Gas Strike Halts 30% of Global Nitrogen Fertilizer
The real problem is nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are, as a rule, derived from oil-based naphtha or natural gas. Currently, Qatar takes natural gas produced at its South Pars gas field, which was recently struck by Iran, to make ammonia and...
IDB Invest and BCP Provide Financing to Grupo Tramarsa to Support the Port of Matarani in Peru
IDB Invest and Banco de Crédito del Perú (BCP) have extended a combined loan of up to $250 million to Grupo Tramarsa and Terminal Internacional del Sur (Tisur) to fund preliminary work on the Port of Matarani expansion. The financing, split...
Global Funds Flock to Malaysia as Iran Conflict Fuels Asian Market Shift
Global investors are shifting into Malaysia, recording just US$80 million net equity sales this month while the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI fell only 1.2%. The move is driven by Malaysia’s political stability, current‑account surplus and status as a net oil‑gas exporter...
Nvidia Signals Comeback in China After Months of AI Chip Restrictions
Nvidia announced it has obtained several U.S. export licenses, allowing the company to restart production and shipments of AI chips to Chinese customers. CEO Jensen Huang said the supply chain is “getting fired up,” signaling a potential revival of a...
Tanzania Tax Review Warns of Trust Erosion, Proposes Sweeping Overhaul
A presidential tax reform commission in Tanzania presented a sweeping overhaul after a 17‑month delay, warning that the current tax system is eroding public trust. The nine‑member panel delivered 284 recommendations, including a formal National Tax Policy, a new Tax...
The Iran War Tests Taiwan’s Energy Resilience
The US‑Israel war with Iran is disrupting Middle‑East oil and LNG shipments, exposing Taiwan’s heavy reliance on imported energy. Taiwan imports 95% of its energy, over 99% of oil and gas, and holds about 150 days of oil reserves but...
China’s Central Bank Pledges Stability in Capital Markets Amid Global Sell-Off
China’s central bank has elevated capital‑market stability to a major task for 2026, pledging to safeguard stock, bond and foreign‑exchange markets amid heightened global volatility. The announcement came as the Shanghai Composite slipped 1.39%, reflecting broader sell‑offs triggered by the...
Taiwan’s New Southbound 2.0: Rewiring the Indo-Pacific Beyond China
At the 2026 Yushan Forum, President Lai Ching‑te recast Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy as a broader Indo‑Pacific strategy that blends trade, technology, democratic cooperation, and security. The forum attracted over 70 leaders from 22 nations, underscoring Taiwan’s push to deepen...
Europe’s Nightmare Choice: Pay Trump for LNG or Beg Putin for Gas After Gulf Strikes Wipe Out Qatar Supply?
In this episode, Justin McShane outlines the sudden European energy crisis triggered by Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars field and Iran’s retaliation that crippled Qatar’s Ras Laffin LNG hub, cutting 20% of global supply. He explains how soaring gas...
Geopolitical Oil Surge Threatens India's Inflation and Rupee
Surging Crude Oil Prices: The geopolitical unrest caused Brent crude oil prices to spike past $115–$118 per barrel. As a major energy importer, this poses a significant risk to India's inflation outlook, the rupee, and corporate profit margins.
Netanyahu Pledges No More Iranian Oil Strikes, Hopes Quicker Peace
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has joined Trump in jawboning the energy market. In a press conference, he said that Israel won't attack anymore oil and gas targets in Iran, and also indicated that the war would be over faster...
If the Iran War Takes Oil Above US$120 a Barrel, How Bad Could the Shock Get?
The escalating US‑Israel‑Iran conflict has pushed crude prices above $120 a barrel as Iranian forces strike Gulf oil and LNG infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Analysts warn that the disruption could evolve into a prolonged supply shock,...
Apple Shifts Production: 25% of iPhones Made in India
Apple Now Makes About 25% of iPhones in India After China Pivot. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/qnDkCJRBFG
Late‑
10y UST yields (blue, RS) v. USDCNY (red, LS), since Russia invaded UKR in Feb-22. Something changed in late 2025 (stronger CNY v. USD and higher 10y UST yield, instead of lower.) https://t.co/hW48oZdc2B
The United Nations Has a Blueprint for Opening the Strait of Hormuz
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted, driving oil prices above $100 per barrel and threatening global food security. The United Nations, recalling its 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative that enabled safe Ukrainian grain shipments, could apply a...
US, Allies Push De‑Escalation as Iran Escalates; Hormuz Closed
The US and its allies are making a concerted effort to de-escalate the oil/gas war, having witnessed that Iran was willing -- and able -- to climb the escalation ladder very quickly. To be seen whether Tehran plays ball. Whatever the...
US Intel Says China Not Planning 2027 Taiwan Invasion
US intelligence assessment admits China is not planning a 2027 Taiwan invasion, contrary to the assertions of numerous China hawks. h/t PA https://t.co/yR1D5boDrL
Shanghai Certifies 30 Overseas Offices Amid China’s Investment Sales Pitch
Shanghai certified 30 new regional headquarters and 15 overseas‑funded R&D centres, including eight Fortune 500 firms. The certifications highlight continued foreign interest despite a three‑year decline in China’s realised FDI. Shanghai now hosts over 1,000 HQs and 647 R&D sites, reinforcing...
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Oil, Derails Bitcoin Rate‑cut Hopes
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Iran has now completely disrupted it and Brent crude surged to $115 this morning. The Fed can't cut its way through a supply shock. And Bitcoin's entire bull case for...
Treasury Secretary Hints at Unsanctioning Iranian Oil, Second SPR Release
What US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told @FoxBusiness about unsanctioning Iranian barrels -- and a potential 2nd SPR release. (I look forward to see how KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait feel about unsanctioning Iranian oil barrels) https://t.co/buyI81abII
Candela Secures €30 Million to Scale Electric Ferries Ahead of IPO
Swedish electric‑vessel maker Candela closed a €30 million financing round, with €8 million from the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation. The funds will finance a second factory in Poland and accelerate global roll‑out of its P‑12 hydrofoil ferries as the company eyes...
Iran Conflict Drives Oil, Fertilizer Prices, Crushing Farmers
NEW ODD LOTS HOW THE IRAN WAR WILL SQUEEZE AMERICA'S FARMERS EVEN FURTHER @TheStalwart & I brought back @AgrisAcademy's Jeff Kazin and Mike Rohlfsen to talk about how surging oil and fertilizer costs will make things even harder for farmers: https://t.co/sk6083JH4Y
Twelve Arab Nations Condemn Iran's Missile Attacks
This isn't just Israel's war. 12 Arab & Islamic nations (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria, Türkiye, Pakistan, Azerbaijan) just issued a joint statement from Riyadh strongly condemning Iran's missile/drone attacks on infrastructure. https://t.co/Fr18fPeM8X
How to Seize the $50bn China Opportunity
Western mobile game makers see China as a $50 bn opportunity with roughly 700 m players. Regulatory approval, limited ISBN licenses and a fragmented Android ecosystem raise entry costs. Success stories such as Nexon’s Dungeon & Fighter Mobile illustrate upside, yet discoverability...
Analyzing the Future Trajectory of the U.S. Dollar
Before anybody asks, no, the following is NOT financial advice. The U.S. dollar is constantly in the spotlight, so where is it heading? Full Newsletter: https://t.co/qD5bHTPN4x #usd #usdollar #economy https://t.co/6JfYCZFI5C
Iranian Attacks Surge as US Loses Grip, Markets Wobble
Yes, the U.S. is losing control of the situation in many ways. Iranian attacks have re-intensified, and their hit ratio has increased. Trump's "we've already won" comments are looking increasingly bizarre. Here’s what it means for markets, macroeconomics, and more.
China’s New 5-Year Plan: Preparing for a Hostile World
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026‑2030) repositions the country for a hostile international environment, emphasizing geopolitical resilience over the optimistic growth narrative of previous plans. Domestically, the plan pushes for technological self‑reliance and reinforces traditional industries such as metallurgy and shipbuilding,...
Emerging Market Ambitions Clash with Capital Controls
If the government is intent on the country becoming an emerging market, why does it insist on capital controls and foreign ownership limits? https://t.co/FnahXHXxsu https://t.co/NKzW8fXfGG
Iranian Ayatollahs Condemn UAE’s Growing Open Economy
Iran’s Ayatollahs Attack the Idea of the U.A.E. They hate seeing an open, resilient economy flourish in one of the world’s most contested regions. https://t.co/8UHgwE39t7
Explainer | Why India Is Pushing to Cut Remittance Costs at WTO
India is spearheading a WTO proposal to slash cross‑border remittance fees that currently eat 5‑6% of transaction values. The initiative targets regulatory and technical barriers, aiming to bring costs below the UN Sustainable Development Goal of 3% by 2030. Backed...
China's Energy Shock Unavoidable Despite Renewables and Reserves
The Economist: China cannot escape the energy shock—Despite renewables and reserves, it will suffer https://t.co/hzNezKxOUo
Indonesia’s Closing Window for a Demographic Dividend
Indonesia’s once‑large demographic dividend is nearing its end as the youth population peaks around 2030 and begins to shrink. While the working‑age cohort will still grow to over 200 million by 2045, manufacturing’s contribution to GDP has stalled, exposing a mismatch...
BlackSoil Capital Secures ₹200 Crore Debt From Impact Fund Denmark to Boost Climate‑Focused Lending
BlackSoil Capital has closed a ₹200 crore ($22 million) debt facility with Danish development financier Impact Fund Denmark. The funding will be used to scale climate‑aligned loans to micro, small and medium enterprises, especially in Tier‑2 and Tier‑3 markets and women‑led businesses....
Iran Hits Qatar LNG Hub, Threatening Global Supply
Iran has successfully broken through Qatari air defenses for the second day in a row, this time striking the globally significant Ras Laffan energy complex. The strikes come after Iran’s own natural gas processing plants along the shared North Dome/South Pars...
Turkmenistan Leader in Beijing; China-Iran War; Rural Land Contracts; US Intelligence Does Not See Invasion of Taiwan in 2027; "Open...
Chinese President Xi Jinping met Turkmenistan’s leader Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov in Beijing, reaffirming the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two nations. Xi emphasized unwavering support for Turkmenistan’s sovereignty, neutrality, and independence, while urging deeper collaboration in the natural‑gas sector. The dialogue...
Xi Just Can’t Shake GDP Worship
Ahead of the Two Sessions, President Xi released a new collection of speeches emphasizing a "correct view of political performance," signaling a shift away from the GDP‑centric evaluation that has driven China’s bureaucracy for decades. Xi now expects officials to...
Iran Expands Energy Targets Amid Rising Gulf Strike Success
A brief update on what we know about the strikes in the Middle East right now: Israel and the US targeted South Pars, a joint Iranian-Qatari gas field. In response, the Iranians have now labeled all energy infrastructure in the region...
Hormuz Closure Sparks Oil Spike, Not Deficit Monetization
If Hormuz is still closed in a month (it likely will be), this is going to turn into "We are doing more not-QE RMP's into an oil spike, but we are NOT monetizing deficits" so fast that investors heads will...
Weaker Dollar and Diversification Drive Global Investors Toward Emerging Markets, Says Finnfund
Global investors are rapidly shifting capital into emerging markets as a weaker U.S. dollar and a push for diversification away from the United States drive demand. Over the past twelve months the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surged 47%, far...
Iran's Missile Strike Fails; Investors Still Expect Hormuz Opening
Several "dogs that didn't bark" in one headline: -Iran warned ahead of time it would hit Ras Laffan. -It fired five missiles (which it is said to be running out of.) -Four were reportedly intercepted, but one got through. -Investor consensus remains...
Israel Strikes Iran's South Pars Facility, Risking Power Outages
Israel has hit Iranian energy infrastructure for the first time; the strike hit a processing facility tied to the South Pars gas field, which could lead to major electricity shortages in Iran within days. Access my daily coverage of the...
BRICS Is Divided on Iran. So Are NATO and the G-7.
BRICS members remain divided over the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, with China and Brazil condemning the attacks while India stays neutral and South Africa hesitates. The bloc’s recent expansion to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE has...
China's Oil Route Closure Threatens Growth, Hits FXI
$FXI down 8% since January. China imports the bulk of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged closure doesn't just hit energy costs. It hits the entire growth model. https://t.co/lSosVCvxcm
China’s Surplus Soars, Europe Squeezed by Energy and Competition
China's manufacturing surplus looks to have taken another leg up. Always a good idea to get confirmation in March given the new year distortions. But Europe looks to be getting squeezed both by China and higher energy prices https://t.co/8EZnqysgKL
Separating China and Russia Failing Like Hormuz Reopening
The plan to separate China and Russia appears to be going about as well as the plan to re-open Hormuz. https://t.co/77hPZR1z9w
Iran Conflict May Spark 10‑15% Market Correction
Ed Yardeni tells Squawk Box the Iran war could trigger a 10%-15% market correction. https://t.co/N1pfsujcVF