Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Kuwait Returns To The Global Debt Market
Kuwait re‑entered the international sovereign market in September 2024, issuing an $11.25 billion eurobond – its first external debt sale since 2017. The issuance was enabled by a new debt law approved in March 2025 that authorises up to KD30 billion (≈$97 billion) of borrowing over a 50‑year horizon. The law followed a period of political gridlock that ended when the Emir dissolved parliament and suspended certain constitutional articles. With low leverage, strong credit ratings and a sizable sovereign‑wealth fund, Kuwait aims to use external financing to smooth oil‑price shocks, fund Vision 2035 projects, and diversify its economy.
Kuwait Opens Oil Gates As Investment Gains Momentum
Kuwait has opened its offshore oil sector to foreign investors, awarding a $1.5 billion development contract to US firm SBL and signing an exploration deal with TotalEnergies while weighing a $7 billion pipeline‑stake sale. The move follows a wave of infrastructure contracts...
New Analysis Finally Explains China’s Economy‑stock Market Split
The divergence between the performance of China’s economy and its stock market has been a topic for decades. This may finally explain it. https://t.co/Kuo5CiNr8e https://t.co/6CgHtlepQL
Avoid Emerging Market Indexes: Consistently Underperforming
1/ I've said it before and will say it again: avoid EM index investing. Their performance has lagged, both in the short-term and in the ultra-long run. https://t.co/MkPIAWW0Jf
Alberto Naudon: Chile's Economic Outlook
Alberto Naudón highlighted that Chile’s 2025 economy outperformed expectations, with non‑mining growth near 3% and gross fixed capital formation rising about 7%. Inflation accelerated early in the year but fell faster than projected, positioning headline inflation around 3.5% and core...
How Does the Iran War Affect China’s Energy Security?
China imports over 10% of its oil from Iran, most of it routed through the Strait of Hormuz, and the ongoing Iran‑U.S. conflict threatens to choke that corridor. While oil accounts for less than one‑fifth of China’s total energy consumption,...
Markets Shrug as China Disruptions Echo 2020
I was in Hong Kong in Feb 2020 and remember this being a very weird time. Investors had been worrying about the US-China trade war under Trump 1.0. Then China effectively shut down most of its economy and markets basically...
Xi Pushes Belt and Road Initiative Port Alliance Amid Iran War, Panama Canal Dispute
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced plans to establish an international port alliance under the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to link key maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Panama Canal. The proposal comes as China faces...
Global Funds Look to Malaysia as Iran War Shakes up Asian Assets
Global funds are turning to Malaysia as the Iran‑Russia conflict rattles Asian markets. The country’s political stability, current‑account surplus and status as one of the few net oil exporters in the region have limited equity outflows, keeping the KLCI near‑flat...
Armenia and Turkey Explore Boosting Energy Connectivity
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar met on the sidelines of an IAEA summit to explore electricity interconnection, nuclear cooperation, and natural‑gas links. The dialogue builds on Pashinyan’s “Real Armenia” agenda, which prioritises economic development...
A Last Gasp for Chinese Growth
China’s January‑February 2026 data showed a surprising rebound, with industrial production climbing to 6.3% year‑on‑year, up from 5.2% in December, driven by stronger‑than‑expected exports. Fixed‑asset investment also turned positive, moving from a 13% contraction in December to a 1.8% expansion....
Indonesia's Upstart Sovereign Fund Stumbles Through Turbulent Year
Indonesia’s newly created sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, has struggled to meet its ambitious goals in its first year. The fund sought private‑sector support through "Patriot bonds" to finance socially‑oriented projects aligned with President Prabowo Subianto’s agenda, but fundraising fell short...
The Iran War Is Roiling Commodities Far Beyond Oil
Since the third Gulf war erupted three weeks ago, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has immobilized roughly 10‑15 % of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude above $106 a barrel. President Donald Trump has ordered the largest-ever strategic reserve...
Moody’s Says a Recession Will Be Hard to Avoid if Oil Prices Stay Elevated for Even a Few More Weeks
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warned that a sustained oil‑price spike—driven by the Iran conflict and a closed Strait of Hormuz—could push the U.S. into a recession. Moody’s machine‑learning recession model, which previously indicated a 49% chance, is expected to...
Hassett on the Economic Impact of the US-Israel-Iran War
Kevin Hassett told CBS’s Face the Nation that the US economy will not be harmed by the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, citing abundant domestic oil production and a steep decline in futures‑based oil prices. He argued the temporary 20% disruption to global...
Inside Trump’s Economic Strategy, with EXIM Bank’s John Jovanovic
In a March 2026 Atlantic Council podcast, EXIM Bank chairman John Jovanovic outlined how the Trump administration’s economic strategy hinges on resilient, "free, fair, and functioning" supply chains. He highlighted the bank’s role in financing U.S. exporters amid heightened geopolitical...
The Gulf’s Expat El Dorado Faces a Costly Recovery After the War
The Gulf’s expatriate‑driven economies face a sharp shock after the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, with water desalination plants and key tourism infrastructure hit by Iranian attacks. The immediate fallout will hit tourism and aviation hardest, while financial services and data‑center projects risk...
AI Capital Is Flooding the World, with the GCC Emerging as the Next Hub
Artificial intelligence captured roughly $270 billion in venture capital in 2025, more than half of all global VC funding. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is emerging as a new AI hub thanks to abundant low‑cost energy, sovereign‑backed investment vehicles, and less...
Iran Conflict Sparks Risk, And Opportunity, For Egypt: CIB CEO Hisham Ezz Al-Arab
The Iran‑Israel conflict has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil above $100 per barrel and unsettling regional markets. In Egypt, the turmoil has sparked capital outflows, weakening the pound to a historic low of about 53 EGP per dollar....
Kroenig Interviewed on CNN on US Action in Iran
Matthew Kroenig, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center, was interviewed on CNN on March 13 to defend President Trump’s approach toward Iran. He claimed that recent U.S. actions, including expanded sanctions and calibrated military signaling, are deliberately weakening...
War With Iran Is Rewriting Global Markets
In this episode of Prop G Markets Live, Scott Galloway and Ed Elson examine how the ongoing war with Iran is reshaping global financial markets, highlighting disruptions in oil supply, heightened geopolitical risk premiums, and shifting investor sentiment. They also...
‘Made in America’ Should Accept Chinese Investment
The article argues that the United States should stop treating all Chinese capital as a security threat and instead allow limited, well‑structured Chinese investment in non‑sensitive sectors. It cites Trump’s “Made in America” agenda, which welcomes foreign money, and contrasts...
Mantashe Pushes Oil and Gas Drive as Global Tension Raises Fuel Price Risks
Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe warned that soaring global crude prices—now above $100 a barrel—expose South Africa’s reliance on imported fuel and urged a rapid acceleration of domestic oil and gas development. He highlighted significant offshore prospects in...
Uncle Sam Goes Mining in the Congo
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, together with Abu Dhabi’s ADQ and New York‑based Orion Resources, signed a non‑binding MOU to acquire a 40% stake in Glencore’s Kamoto and Mutanda cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The move...
Northern Shift: Iceland’s EU Bid & Sweden’s Euro Debate
Iceland’s new Social Democratic government has scheduled an August referendum to decide whether to restart EU accession talks, with a Gallup poll showing 52% support for re‑engagement. The island already implements roughly three‑quarters of EU law through its EEA and...
Strengthening Romania’s Competitiveness
Romania has closed much of the gap to OECD income levels over the past twenty years, driven by market integration, capital inflows, and broad reforms. Labor productivity now sits close to the OECD average, though wages have begun outpacing productivity...
Gulf Crisis to Strengthen, Not Weaken, China’s Industrial Edge
The escalating Iran‑Israel‑US crisis threatens to choke the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude prices above $100 a barrel and adding up to 1.2% to global inflation. At the same time, worldwide electricity demand is surging, driven by AI‑intensive data centers...
The Comparative Influence of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflows on Export Performance Between Landlocked and Coastal African Countries
The paper analyzes how foreign direct investment (FDI) influences export performance in African economies from 1996 to 2023, separating landlocked from coastal nations. Using Kao‑Pedroni cointegration and Granger causality with a Pooled Mean Group estimator, it finds a long‑run equilibrium...
Iran Attacks Fujairah, Spares Saudi Pipeline Bypass
Iran has started a new phase of its oil war: Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn't been attacked (and neither the Yemeni...
Bessent Mirrors 1992 BOE: Fighting USD Collapse Over Oil
Bessent now finds himself in the position of the Bank of England in 1992 when Soros, Druckenmiller, & Bessent "broke the BOE": Trying to prevent the USD from collapsing v. oil with a finite amount of oil reserves as markets &...
India’s Wholesale Inflation Hits 11-Month High of 2.13% in February
India’s Wholesale Price Index rose to 2.13 % in February, the highest level in 11 months, up from 1.81 % in January. The increase was driven primarily by higher prices for manufactured goods, basic metals, food articles and textiles. Primary articles saw...
Neighbor Releases $2 Bn Frozen
This is from the end of December. Was this meant to lure Iran into negotiations? ran says $2bn of frozen assets released by neighboring country https://t.co/miz6slNXAM
India Buys Pricey Russian Oil Legally, Boosting Putin
Somewhere in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is rubbing his hands. India is paying ~$99 a barrel for Russian crude Urals (including shipping costs). And since the US eased its sanctions on Russian crude, it's all legal.
The EU’s Energy Dilemma
EU foreign and energy ministers convened in Brussels to address mounting risks to energy security as Iranian tensions disrupt shipping routes and threaten supply chains. Norway positioned itself as a dependable gas supplier, offering a potential lifeline for the bloc....
Asia's Gas‑to‑Coal Flexibility Offsets Europe’s 2022 Shortfall
South Korea is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG The flexibility of Asia to performan gas-to-coal switching (and its enormous coal-fired fleet) provides a layer of insulation...
Global GDP Figures Overstated by up to 35%
This paper says India's GDP is overstated by 22%. It also says that Europe's GDP and China's GDP are both overstated by 35%.
Nigeria Seeks to Unlock Liquidity From Tightly Held Stocks
Nigerian regulators are reassessing free‑float rules for listed firms to increase market liquidity and attract capital. The current framework requires at least 20% public shareholding or 40 billion naira of tradable shares, but many large companies remain tightly held by controlling...
China's 2026 Economy Starts Steady, Boosting Consumption Shift
China’s Economy Off to Steady Start in 2026 Amid Lowered Expectations—Better-than-expected performance in first two months of year opens space for Beijing to pursue goal of shifting toward consumption-led growth @ByXiaoXiao @TByGraceZhu https://t.co/KtqJ6NLc1z https://t.co/KtqJ6NLc1z
How Takaichi Can Triumph
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi leveraged her landslide snap‑election win to double down on a U.S.-centric security strategy, positioning Japan as the linchpin of a broader Indo‑Pacific coalition against China. Her approach directly counters Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call...
China’s 30-Year Yields Set for Highest Close Since 2024 on Oil
China’s 30‑year government bond yields climbed to 2.4%, the highest closing level since September 2024, as oil prices surged amid the Iran‑Israel conflict. The 10‑year benchmark also edged higher to 1.83%, reflecting broader inflation concerns. Futures on the 30‑year bond fell...
PS Quarterly Interview: Desmond Lachman
In a recent Project Syndicate interview, economist Desmond Lachman warns that President Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy could revive bond‑market vigilantes and destabilize the U.S. Treasury market. He argues that such stress may puncture the soaring AI‑related equity rally and...
GCC Bond, Sukuk Issuances Plunge Amid Iran War- #CapitalMarkets #Finance #Treasury #Finance
GCC dollar‑denominated bond and sukuk issuances have plunged since the Iran war erupted, despite the region’s strong credit fundamentals earlier in 2026. The GCC still represents roughly 40% of all emerging‑market dollar issuance this year, with outstanding DCM at $1.2 trillion....
Chinese Firms Investing in Development of Logistics Hubs in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan
China Railway Construction Engineering Group signed an agreement with a joint venture of Uzbekistan Railways and Kazakhstan’s PTC Holding to build Silkway Central Asia, an $84 million, 159‑hectare logistics hub near Tashkent. The first phase should be operational by 2027, with...
Europe 2050: Geometries of Peace, Power, and Prosperity
Europe faces a series of wake‑up calls—from COVID‑driven border closures to supply‑chain shocks, Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s market leverage, and strained US ties—that have exposed deep structural weaknesses in the Single Market, energy security and strategic autonomy. A new...
Philippines-Chile FTA Talks Seen Wrapping up in April
The Philippines is poised to finalize a free‑trade agreement with Chile by April 2026, after a series of negotiations that left only a few items unresolved. Bilateral trade last year totaled $334 million, with exports of $43.3 million and imports of $290.8 million,...
Qatar, Kuwait Will Dump US Assets Amid GDP Collapse
If their GDP drops 14%, do you think Qatar and Kuwait will: a) Slash government outlays (thereby risking domestic unrest), or; b) Sell USTs & US equities “until their hands bleed” to raise USDs to buy needed goods to try to...
Individual Investors Are Chasing Oil’s Surge Amid Iran Conflict; Institutions Are Thinking About What Comes Next
Oil prices surged to $100 a barrel as the Iran‑Hormuz crisis intensified, prompting a wave of individual buying in the United States Oil Fund (USO). USO attracted nearly $1 billion of inflows and has risen about 46% since the conflict began,...
Red Sea Swarms with Tankers as Hormuz Remains Closed
MAP OF THE DAY: While the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed (other than a few tankers, notably from India), the Red Sea is witnessing the arrival of an oil tanker armada to the Saudi terminals there. (Tracking via @TheTerminal) (Blue...
Towards Correction?
The S&P 500’s aggregate valuation masks a stark split between the high‑flying Magnificent 7 and the rest of the market. Forward price‑to‑earnings ratios for the Magnificent 7 are significantly higher than those for large‑, mid‑, and small‑cap indices. While the Magnificent 7 index has...
US Oil Exports Could Spark Overwhelming Ban Demand
I’m really concerned that when people take this one step further and learn that the US is actually selling oil to other countries that the public’s demand for an export ban will become overwhelming.