Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
EM Lens: War-Induced Oil Shocks Aren’t Kind to EM Economies
In this episode, Gustavo Medeiros of Ashmore Group and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Damian Sassower examine how the war‑induced oil shock is pressuring emerging market (EM) economies with rising energy costs, stagflation risks, and declining asset prices. They discuss the extraordinary policy steps governments are taking to cushion households and firms, and they analyze structural drivers such as terms of trade and the degree of energy price pass‑through to inflation. The conversation highlights medium‑term implications for EM growth and inflation expectations, especially if the conflict in Iran persists, and points to potential investment opportunities amid heightened volatility.
Fitch Raises India's GDP Growth Projection for FY26 to 7.5%
Fitch Ratings raised its forecast for India’s FY 2025‑26 GDP growth to 7.5%, a slight uptick from the 7.4% projected in December. The agency also lifted its outlook for FY 2026‑27 to 6.7% from 6.4%, citing strong domestic demand and double‑digit credit...
China’s Gig Economy Tsunami: 200M Workers on the Edge
China’s economy is shifting from labor‑intensive manufacturing to capital‑intensive high‑tech sectors, creating fewer traditional jobs. The Ministry of Human Resources reports over 200 million “flexible” platform workers—about 27 % of the national labor force and 43 % of urban workers. These gig workers...
Nifty 50 Is Down 12% From Its Peak: Is It Time for Bottom Fishing?
The Nifty 50 slipped more than 2% on March 13, leaving the index 12% below its January 5 peak of 26,373. The correction is fueled by rising crude prices amid the US‑Iran war, a weakening rupee, persistent foreign institutional outflows and heightened macro‑economic...
Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz Is Spilling Into the Indian Ocean
Conflict between the US‑Israel coalition and Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, forcing commercial vessels to reroute through the Indian Ocean. At least 18 ships have been attacked and dozens have disabled AIS, while Iran permits Chinese‑flagged traffic,...
China’s AI Adoption May Limit Economic Fallout of Its Rapidly Ageing Population: Analysts
Analysts at Bank of America and S&P Global argue that accelerating AI and robotics adoption in China, South Korea and Japan can cushion the economic drag of rapidly ageing societies. These economies already boast robot densities far above the global...
Thailand Prepares to Defend USTR on Trade Probes
Thailand’s commerce ministry has created a high‑level task force to counter new USTR investigations under Section 301, which target excess capacity in autos, auto parts, machinery and rubber. The United States highlighted a $51 billion trade surplus in Thailand’s favour, up from...
Neutralize Iran's Shipping Threats to Lower Oil Prices
"There is no reason, whether or not Trump declares that war is over, to think that Iran will not continue for some time to threaten to destroy the ships that try. Why should they stop?" --- Exactly, Trump cannot TACO. If he...
Hedgeye Stays Short as IDX Falls 13% Monthly
Macro Pros @Hedgeye remain short Indonesia in $IDX terms Down another -3.0% overnight, collapsing -13.1% in the last month alone #GoAnywhere https://t.co/Ny66xrqpv3
Strategic Stakes Rise for Bangladesh as Iran Targets Gulf Neighbors
Bangladesh’s economic lifeline to the Gulf hinges on 3 million migrant workers and $24 billion in annual remittances. Recent Iranian missile and drone attacks across GCC airspace have heightened security risks for these expatriates. The government is weighing a neutral diplomatic stance...
War Adds $3‑6 per Barrel Daily, White House Stumped
COLUMN: The White House is running out of ways to curb rising oil prices. "... My working assumption is that the oil market will add $3 to $6 a barrel to the headline price for every day — every single...
Israeli Tech Thrives Amid Geopolitical Risks, Says CNBC
"I wouldn't say business is as usual, but the Israeli tech economy keeps on ticking." Here is half of my CNBC interview with Sara Eisen on Israeli resilience, Iran risk discount for Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and much more....
China Slams Trump's Trade Investigation, as It Approves a 5-Year Economic Plan
China’s foreign ministry condemned the United States’ newly announced trade investigation into excess capacity as political manipulation, while the U.S. Trade Representative positioned the probe as a tool to protect American firms after a Supreme Court ruling nullified prior tariffs....
White House Flips: War to Keep Hormuz Open
I kid you not... The same White House that forgot that didn't realize that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz, is now arguing (through Ron Vara) that the war is a good idea because it'll prevent Iran from closing...
Morning Brief Podcast: India Opens the Door to China Investments…a Little
India has quietly revised Press Note 3, easing restrictions on Chinese capital in the country’s startup and technology sectors while keeping telecom and security‑sensitive areas closed. The amendment comes as foreign direct investment has plateaued and institutional investors have withdrawn billions,...
Russian Oil Purchase Allowed… for Now — Scott Bessent Announces ‘Short-Term’ Licence as Crude Prices Rise Amid Iran War
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a short‑term general licence that lets countries buy Russian crude already stranded at sea, aiming to ease the price surge triggered by the U.S.-Israel‑Iran conflict. The licence covers oil loaded onto vessels by March 12...
Russian Power Entities Appear Plagued by Financing Troubles in Central Asia
Russia's state‑linked power firms are hitting financing snags across Central Asia, prompting a rapid loss of lucrative contracts. Kazakhstan abandoned a Russian consortium for China’s Harbin Electric, slashing project costs by nearly $500 million. In 2025, Inter RAO forfeited three Kazakh power‑plant...
IEA's One-Month Oil Buffer Signals Looming Global Rationing
The International Energy Agency (IEA) just authorized a 400 million barrel reserve release to offset oil disruptions caused by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That stabilizes markets—for now. However, with global demand at around 100 million...
How the New Gulf War Is Impacting Mongolia
The February 28 Gulf War between the United States‑Israel coalition and Iran has quickly rippled to Mongolia, prompting its foreign ministry to alert the 281 Mongolian nationals living in the Middle East and arrange emergency repatriation flights. By March 11, 91 citizens...
US‑Iran Conflict Raises Oil Prices, Not Yet a Shock
U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...
Emerging Market Bulls Rejoicing, But Will It Last?
Emerging‑market indices have outperformed both the MSCI World and the S&P 500 in early 2026, driven by easing inflation, a weaker dollar, and shifting investor sentiment. Forecasts show EM economies growing around 4 % this year, roughly three times the pace of...
Vietnam’s New Wealth: How Techcombank Is Shaping Private Banking
Vietnam’s upgrade to a secondary emerging market is spurring a surge of high‑net‑worth individuals, intensifying demand for sophisticated wealth services. Techcombank Private, crowned Global Finance’s Best Private Bank in Vietnam for 2026, leverages this trend with VND 428 trillion in assets under...
Top Banks In Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s banking sector, overseen by SAMA, has evolved into a $1.5 trillion‑plus powerhouse anchored by a mix of legacy institutions and fast‑growing digital challengers. Al Rajhi Bank remains the world’s largest Shariah‑compliant bank with nearly $300 billion in assets, while the Saudi...
Infrastructure Investment Is the Key to China’s Growth
China's government set a 2026 growth target of 4.5‑5% after meeting its 2025 goal of 5%. 2025 GDP reached CN¥140.19 trillion ($20.4 trillion), with consumption contributing 52%, investment 15.3%, and exports 32.7% of growth. The economy faces geopolitical tensions and a US‑led...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Markets, Fuels Inflation Surge
...and yet, the Strait of Hormuz is STILL closed, for the 13th day. Why? 🤔 At some point, investors are going to understand why this is; when they do, it is going to be very bad for both stocks AND...
Iran Keeps Flooding Strait of Hormuz with Oil
VIDEO EXPLAINER: The most important map of the Third Gulf War — the oilfields, the Strait of Hormuz, and the bypass pipelines. Plus a look at how, two weeks into the war, Iran is still exporting lots of its oil,...
Ruling Party Proposes Bold Vision to Transform Zimbabwe Into Global Battery Manufacturing Hub
Zimbabwe’s ruling ZANU‑PF party announced a strategic push to transform the country from a raw lithium exporter into a full‑stack battery manufacturing hub. The plan highlights the recent attraction of four of the world’s top six lithium firms and the...
Saudi Pays Record Tanker Rates to Ship Red Sea Crude
Saudi Arabia is booking more and more super oil tankers at sky high rates (>$450,000 a day vs pre-war levels of $100,000 a day) to shift crude from the Red Sea into global markets.
IEA Warns War Could Cause Unprecedented Oil Disruption
The IEA says the war in turning into the biggest oil disruption in world history https://t.co/UJZqGyrhUP
China’s Aging Population and the Implications for China’s Security
China’s population contracted in 2022 for the first time since the 1960s, and its fertility rate remains among the world’s lowest. Projections show a loss of roughly 250 million people by 2050, turning the country’s age structure upside‑down. The working‑age cohort...
Where Investors Can Back Africa's Trade Expansion
The article highlights that Africa’s intra‑regional trade finance market exceeds $60 bn but remains vastly under‑served, with only 7‑25% of demand met. Post‑2008 regulatory changes pushed global banks to partner with local institutions, making regional banks the primary conduit for cross‑border...
South Korean Lawmakers Pass Law to Manage Seoul's Pledge of $350 Billion in US Investments
South Korean lawmakers approved a law establishing a public corporation to oversee a $350 billion pledge of U.S. investments, aimed at averting new U.S. tariffs. The agreement, struck in November, allocates $200 billion to semiconductor and high‑tech projects and $150 billion to shipbuilding,...
Philippine Economy Faces ‘Serious’ Contraction From Gas Emissions Cuts—ADB
Asian Development Bank warns the Philippines could experience a serious GDP contraction as it pursues a 75% greenhouse‑gas emissions cut by 2030. The bank’s March 12 report cites high mitigation costs, price pressures and a lack of productivity measures, which...
PC Price Hikes and a Test for Taiwan
Global PC manufacturers announced price increases of 5%‑10% as semiconductor shortages and higher freight costs persist. The hikes hit both consumer and enterprise segments, squeezing budgets for schools and businesses. Taiwan, home to major chip fabs and motherboard producers, faces...
China Targets Record Food-Security Push in Shadow of US-Israeli War with Iran
China’s 15th five‑year plan sets a record grain‑production target of 725 million tonnes by 2030, up from the 650 million‑tonne floor in the previous plan. The goal is backed by accelerated mechanisation, AI‑driven equipment and advanced breeding to secure food supplies amid...
Trust, Trade and the Slow Architecture of India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor
The India‑Middle East‑Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was unveiled under India’s G20 presidency as a multi‑layered framework linking market access, digital connectivity and risk mitigation. Despite the shock of the October 7 Hamas attack and subsequent Iran‑Israel‑U.S. clashes, India has kept the...
Latin America Appeases US, Banks on Chinese Cash
NYT op-ed: “For years, Washington’s Latin America policy has oscillated between neglect and alarmism…The result is a region that has learned to nod to U.S. concerns while quietly cashing Chinese checks.” https://t.co/fuVrwW6AHG
China Largely Insulated From Global Energy Price Shocks
China’s economy is largely insulated from the recent global energy price spikes triggered by Middle East tensions. Although oil and gas import bills will rise, long‑term contracts, domestic coal dominance, and sizable strategic reserves limit cost pass‑through. The country’s low...
Can Nigeria’s Industrial Plan Deliver Real Factories?
Nigeria has unveiled the National Industrial Policy 2025‑2035 to revive manufacturing and capture its youthful labour force. The plan targets a rise in manufacturing’s share of GDP to 15% by 2030 and 25% by 2035, backed by up to 5%...
South America: Untapped Resources Fuel Historic Transformation
South America: A resource-rich and still largely unexplored region undergoing one of the most significant political and economic transformations in its history. https://t.co/jXGUJd5RMi https://t.co/uc8dlJv1f5
GEOPOLITICS DOESN'T CHANGE PRICES IN THE LONG-RUN?
The piece argues that geopolitical shocks, while capable of causing short‑term commodity price spikes, do not alter the long‑run pricing trajectory, which is anchored in supply‑demand fundamentals, technological progress, and investment cycles. It cites historical data showing oil, copper and...
Markets Reveal Signals on Iran War and US Role
A pretty great conversation with @ed_elson_ and the FT's Katie Martin about what financial markets can tell us at critical moments, and what they're telling us about the war in Iran and America's place in the world. https://youtu.be/Jr7X0tlOl1k?si=9FjFHp0n13n6dPoL
US Committed to EU Trade Deal, Top Trump Official Tells Brussels
The United States reaffirmed its commitment to the EU‑U.S. trade agreement in a call between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič. The deal, signed last summer at Turnberry, caps European export tariffs at 15 percent and...
Oil Shock, Inflation Pressures Dampen RBI Rate-Cut Hopes
India’s central bank faces mounting pressure to pause its rate‑cut cycle as West‑Asia oil price shocks reignite inflation concerns. A surge in Brent crude, coupled with fading food‑price base effects, threatens to push consumer inflation above the RBI’s 4% target....
Centre Holds Back on Fuel Exports Ban Due to Logistics, Tax Hurdles as West Asia Conflict Rages
India has postponed a full ban on fuel exports despite a supply squeeze triggered by the Iran‑related West Asia conflict. The delay stems from logistical bottlenecks, the risk of breaching existing export contracts, and the need for a tax waiver...
Seafarer Deaths Surpass US Casualties, Strait Reopening Uncertain
1/6 Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war. The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of...
Iran's Pre‑revolution Growth Could've Made It Developed
Today I learned that Iran's GDP growth rate pre-Islamic revolution was 5%-9% a year, and that's dropped to 2% year in the ensuing 40 years. Iran had been on pace to be a South Korean or Turkey-style developed country before...
War in Iran and Afghanistan Threatens Central Asia’s Gateway to Global Markets
The escalating war between Iran and the Taliban‑Pakistan front is jeopardizing Central Asia’s planned southbound trade routes. Ongoing fighting threatens the Uzbekistan‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan railway, the TAPI gas pipeline, and the CASA‑1000 power line, while U.S.–Israel attacks on Iran disrupt shipping and...
Iran Targets US Markets; Conflict Strains Credit Channels
March 3, 2026 edition of FFTT: "Iran doesn't need to defeat the US military; just the UST market" March 11, 2026: "S&P has warned that the Middle East conflict is beginning to strain credit channels across multiple sectors" https://t.co/pnftNUeht5
Trump Doubts Iranian Mines, Urges Tankers Through Hormuz
President Donald Trump said he didn’t believe Iran was laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Asked Wednesday whether Iran had laid mines in the strait, Trump told reporters, “We don’t think so. Trump also urged oil companies to send their...