Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
George Answers Your Questions: European Nuclear Umbrella, Risks of a United Europe
At the Munich Security Conference, George addressed Europe’s reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, noting that European nuclear forces are insufficient to deter Russia’s vastly larger arsenal. He highlighted the continent’s high population density, which amplifies the catastrophic potential of any nuclear exchange. The discussion also explored the strategic risks of a politically unified Europe lacking independent nuclear deterrence. Ultimately, George warned that without a credible autonomous capability, Europe remains vulnerable to Russian coercion.
Indian Labour-Intensive Exports to Face Lower 10% Surcharge After US Court Axes Trump’s Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the 18% reciprocal tariffs imposed on Indian goods, prompting President Trump to replace them with a uniform 15% worldwide tariff under Section 122. This adjustment lowers the levy on Indian labour‑intensive exports—textiles, leather, shrimp—from the...
FIIs Turn Buyers in February with Rs 16,912 Crore Worth of Equity Inflows. Is This a Sign of Trend Reversal?
Foreign institutional investors turned net buyers in February 2026, channeling roughly Rs 16,912 crore into Indian equities. This marks a sharp reversal from January’s Rs 35,962 crore outflows and a year‑to‑date net outflow of Rs 19,050 crore. The buying was uneven across sectors, with IT stocks...
Week Signals: Always. Be. Coercing.
The episode reviews a week of heightened geopolitical coercion, highlighting how traditional diplomacy has been supplanted by a blend of negotiation and pressure tactics by major powers, especially the United States and China. It notes the U.S. leveraging multiple levers—military,...
Supreme Court Undermines Washington’s Geoeconomic Power Base
The legal foundation of Washington’s geoeconomic power plays is looking shaky after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidated the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Source: Vizualytiks https://www.voronoiapp.com/trade/US-Tariff-Revenue-7693
US‑Led Regime Change Leaves Libya with 58.8% Inflation
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Thanks to US-led regime change operations in 2011, Libya is a failed state. Today, I measure Libya’s inflation at 58.8%/yr. LIBYA’S ECONOMY = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/5JVou6TFc3
The Rail Ahead: As High-Speed Lines Saturate China, How Far Can Their Global Reach Extend?
China’s railway giants are turning outward as domestic high‑speed lines saturate, seeking overseas contracts in Southeast and Central Asia. Projects already under way include Thailand’s 610 km line, Malaysia’s 665 km east‑west railway, and Indonesia’s Jakarta‑Bandung service that has moved 12 million passengers....
Chariot to Raise $20 Million to Fund Offshore Angola Oil Production Stake
Chariot Plc announced a $20 million equity placing to help finance the acquisition of a producing oil interest offshore Angola. The deal, in partnership with Shell Trading and Etu Energias, targets Blocks 14 and 14K, which currently produce about 8,000 barrels per day....
Russia Weakened but Still Dangerous After the Ukraine War
The Ukraine war has exposed Russia’s structural vulnerabilities, including demographic decline, waning energy leverage over Europe, and growing reliance on China. Simultaneously, Moscow has adapted its military doctrine, emphasizing drones, electronic warfare, and attritional tactics, while sanctions have not collapsed...
Quote of the Day: ‘Benefits of Tariffs Are…’ — What Milton Friedman Said on Protectionism
Milton Friedman’s 1980 warning that tariffs show visible benefits but hide widespread costs resonates amid recent US‑China trade frictions, where higher import duties have pushed up consumer prices and strained global supply chains. At the same time, India and Brazil...
RBI Likely to Go for a Prolonged Policy Rate Pause: ICICI Bank Report
The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy repo rate steady at 5.25% on February 6, signalling a neutral stance. ICICI Bank Global Markets expects this will translate into a prolonged pause through 2026‑27 as core inflation stays benign and oil‑price...
Section 122 Exemptions Enable Net Tariff Reduction
Important. Net effect of striking IEEPA/ reciprocal tariffs and doing the 122 with similar product exemptions should be a tariff reduction.
China’s Growth Needs Domestic Consumption, Not Exports
China’s economy has held up remarkably well against shocks like U.S. tariffs but continued resilience will need consumption to drive growth, rather than external demand, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund. @Tracyyyqu https://t.co/7pUUCZaEr2
BYD Adds to China’s Expanding Automotive Footprint in Pakistan
Chinese EV maker BYD is set to begin local vehicle assembly in Pakistan, with a 25,000‑unit annual plant near Karachi slated for operation in the third to fourth quarter of 2026. The $150 million facility will make BYD the first electric‑vehicle...
Mine. Mine. Mine. How One Corrupt Billionaire Kicked Off the Global Cobalt Spree – by Nicolas Niarchos (Vanity Fair –...
Dan Gertler, an Israeli businessman, leveraged deep political connections to dominate Congo's cobalt mining, turning the country into a linchpin of the global battery supply chain. His network of opaque contracts and bribes enabled Western tech firms to secure cheap...
Access to Credit and Employment Growth for MSMEs: Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean
A new IDB Invest technical note analyzes 21,696 MSMEs across 30 Latin American and Caribbean economies, linking credit access to employment growth. The study finds that an extra US$1 million in financing generates roughly four permanent jobs per year. Effects vary:...
China’s Defense Surplus Funding Threatens US Corporate Influence
Sad to watch so many analysts and economists argue that it is a "win" to allow China to continue to deploy surpluses earned from making a significant % of the US military for us 👇into US equity stakes which China...
Five Forces that May Reshape the African Continent in 2026
The African Union’s February summit highlighted a packed 2026 election calendar, with more than a dozen nations heading to the polls, from Uganda and Benin to Ethiopia and South Sudan. Parallel security concerns dominate the agenda, as the DRC’s fragile...
Recommended Weekend Reads
This episode curates a set of recent reports on three major themes: U.S. trade policy after the Supreme Court blocked President Trump's use of the IEEPA, escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions and Iran’s domestic challenges, and broader geoeconomic issues such as...
The Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that President Trump’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are unlawful, restoring congressional authority over trade barriers. The decision paves the way for thousands of lawsuits seeking refunds, with industry estimates...
The Supreme Court Just Struck Down Most of Trump’s Tariffs. What’s Next?
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the president cannot impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, effectively nullifying most of Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime. The decision restores congressional primacy over tariff authority and declares the core...
Tunisia Needs Both Bread and Freedom
Tunisia’s post‑2011 democratic breakthrough delivered expanded civil liberties but failed to translate into lasting economic gains. A 2021 presidential power grab dismantled key checks, curbing judicial independence and reversing many political freedoms. Meanwhile, the economy remains hampered by high inflation,...
TFM Showcases Economic Impact and Calls for Energy Reform at DRC Breakfast During Mining Indaba
Tenke Fungurume Mining (TFM) told Mining Indaba delegates it has delivered roughly US$8 billion to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s public treasury since 2006 and supports about 20,000 jobs. The mine, a Copper Mark‑certified operation, allocates 0.3% of revenue to community projects...
Iran’s Regime Is Suffering From Strategic Vertigo. Its Next Misstep May Be Its Last.
Iran’s leadership has repeatedly misread regional dynamics, turning potential strategic gains into costly setbacks. After hesitating to mobilize Hezbollah during the October 7 Hamas offensive, Tehran launched a large‑scale missile and drone barrage against Israel in April 2024, prompting a robust Israeli‑U.S....
Talks, Plans, and Prison Breaks
The episode examines the latest round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva, noting modest progress on nuclear issues but stark disagreement over missiles and regional proxies, while the U.S. escalates its Middle East military presence with an additional aircraft carrier....
Global Growth Expected to Slow in 2026
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report projects global real GDP growth to slow in 2026 after a surprisingly resilient 2025. The 2025 boost stemmed from a pre‑tariff trade surge and modest monetary easing, but those advantages are fading. New trade...
Post-Poll Upswing Continues on SET
Thai shares rallied toward the 1,500‑point psychological barrier, driven by a catch‑up valuation buying pattern and strong dividend announcements. The SET index’s price‑earnings multiple sits about 33 % below the MSCI All‑Country World Index, widening the gap between blue‑chip and mid‑cap...
Why Islamic Finance Could Provide an Ethical Model for Funding the Green Transition
Islamic finance, anchored in asset‑backed transactions and social responsibility, is emerging as a credible alternative to conventional green finance. Its core instrument, green sukuk, ties investor capital directly to renewable‑energy and sustainable‑infrastructure projects, ensuring profits stem from real economic activity....
Killing the Goose that Lays the Gold Medal
The article argues that America’s refusal to welcome talent jeopardizes its dominance in both sports and scientific research. It cites Vice President JD Vance’s criticism of skier Eileen Gu, who, though U.S.-born, competes for China, as evidence of the broader issue....
Four Years of War in Europe
Four years after Russia’s invasion, Europe has become the primary financier and arms supplier for Ukraine, while the United States under President Trump has largely stepped back from direct involvement. The conflict has spurred unprecedented battlefield innovation, notably Ukraine’s mass‑produced...
What Is Trump’s China Policy?
Former President Donald Trump’s China policy is defined by contradictory impulses—pursuing short‑term commercial deals while simultaneously signaling a tougher stance on strategic issues like Taiwan and critical minerals. The administration’s “big‑tent” approach pits pro‑business officials against hard‑line hawks, creating strategic...
US Senator: ‘Much More Money than You Would Think’ in US Development
U.S. Senator Chris Coons told Devex at the Munich Security Conference that the United States allocates far more development assistance than most people realize. He warned that soaring defense budgets among the U.S. and its European allies could crowd out...
World Bank Chief's Role on Trump-Led Board of Peace Prompts Questions
World Bank President Ajay Banga joined President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza reconstruction, igniting debate over the lender’s political neutrality. Critics warn his involvement could blur the Bank’s traditionally apolitical stance, while supporters argue his presence may temper...
NATO Needs to Define the Substance of Its 1.5 Percent Pledge
At the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, allies committed to raising defense‑related spending to 1.5 percent of GDP by 2030, adding roughly $825 billion across the Alliance. The communiqué, however, offers no clear definition of which expenditures count toward this figure,...
US Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Tariffs: Early Analysis From Chatham House Experts
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6‑3 decision striking down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, finding the administration exceeded its authority. The ruling blocks the baseline 10% "Liberation Day" tariff and related...
Should the Defense Spending Ramp-Up Also Tackle Climate Change?
At the Munich Security Conference, defense leaders focused on tanks, ammunition and troop deployments, while climate change was relegated to the sidelines. Delegations from the Global South, especially small‑island states, warned that climate acts as a strategic risk multiplier that...
Inflation‑Adjusted Dollar Down 10% Yet Remains Strong
The inflation adjusted dollar is only down ~ 10% v its q4 2024 high (it was driven up by the initial Trump trade). The inflation adjusted dollar is more or less back where it was in 2023 and...
Markets Cheer ₹80,000-Crore Divestment Target
The Indian government has set an ₹80,000‑crore dis‑investment target for the next fiscal, sparking a rally in public‑sector undertaking (PSU) stocks and lifting equity markets. The plan combines strategic stake sales and asset monetisation to generate fiscal inflows while unlocking...
Supreme Court Blocks Key Tariff Components, Administration Must Seek Alternatives
Update on US tariffs: The Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 against components of the administration's tariff policy. The ball is now in the administration’s court—specifically the willingness and ability to impose tariffs under alternative legal authorities. #economy #tariffs #markets
Argentina's 32% Inflation Fueled by Runaway Money Growth
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. NO SURPRISE. AR’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 9.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 5%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES HEEL....
Pakistan’s New Special Security Unit Underscores China’s Hold on the Country
Pakistan announced a dedicated special security unit in January 2026 to protect Chinese citizens and projects, a move prompted by a spike in militant attacks on Chinese interests. The unit signals Islamabad’s desperation to retain China’s $62 billion investment amid deteriorating...
Section 122 Tariffs Approaching Rapidly: Key Points
A couple of points on Section 122 tariffs -- as they seem to be coming quickly 1/ https://t.co/s9LF3ZMZ1q
IMF's 2025 Report Flawed Using Outdated
This illustrates the problems with the IMF's 2025 external sector report -- for one, it uses the 2024 current account surplus as its measure, and a lot has changed since then ... 1/2 https://t.co/uBaXFvSXhW
Kroenig Interviewed on CBS News on US Strategy in Iran and the Board of Peace
Atlantic Council senior director Matthew Kroenig appeared on CBS News on February 19 to discuss Washington’s options regarding a potential strike on Iran. He warned that a rushed military action could destabilize the region and emphasized the need for a...
IEEPA Tariff Ruling Limits Trump’s Broad Tariff Options
The Trump administration is sure to use other authorities (122 maybe, 232, 301) to raise tariffs now that the court has struck down the IEEPA tariffs. But striking down IEEPA still matters, particularly for China/other countries that aren't heavily hit by...
Trump 2.0 Boosts Banks, Revives Citi’s Fortunes
We don’t talk about banks much any more, but Trump 2.0 has been good to them, notably Citi the principal casualty of 2008. More on this and other fascinating topics in the Chartbook Top links today. https://t.co/saPWxJgDju
How Trump and Erdoğan Can Turn US LNG Energy Dominance Into Black Sea Stability
U.S. President Donald Trump is positioning a three‑party deal with Turkey and Ukraine at the June NATO summit to allow large‑scale U.S. LNG shipments through the Bosporus. Current Turkish regulations bar vessels over 200 m, preventing most U.S. LNG carriers from...
Falling CPI‑PCE Spread Signals Declining Inflation, Defying Q4 GDP
When the CPI-PCE spread heads lower (the spread is cyclical), it is because inflation is going lower. CPI is what matters.. End of discussion The economy is currently doing the opposite of that Q4 GDP report https://t.co/xBUcAxE1EP
Australia and Timor-Leste: A New Partnership for a New Era
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Timor‑Leste Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão signed the Parseria Foun ba Era Foun declaration, establishing a new partnership built on three pillars – peace and regional integration, prosperity and resilience, and people‑to‑people links. The accord expands cooperation in security,...
To Bridge the Transatlantic Productivity Divide, Europe Needs Structural Reforms—And AI
Europe’s productivity lags far behind the United States, with EU real‑GDP growth averaging 1.3% since 2000 versus 2.4% in the US. The gap is driven by weak diffusion of IT and AI advances, which account for 25% of US growth...