Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
IMF Warns Venezuela’s Economy and Humanitarian Situation Is ‘Quite Fragile’
The IMF warned that Venezuela’s economy and humanitarian situation remain “quite fragile,” citing triple‑digit inflation, a sharply depreciating currency and public debt at roughly 180 percent of GDP. The country has seen massive emigration, with about 8 million people leaving since 2014, and continues to suffer severe shortages and high poverty. Political turmoil intensified after the U.S. detained former President Nicolás Maduro, leaving interim President Delcy Rodríguez to pursue stabilization measures. Re‑engagement with the IMF could unlock $4.9 billion in frozen SDRs, while recent U.S. sanctions relief opens the oil sector to major foreign investors.
Exclude Pharma and Gold to Reveal True US Trade Trend
I think the best way to look at the underlying trend in the US trade data is strip out pharmaceuticals and gold (both were heavily influenced by the threat of tariffs, even though none were imposed on either category) 1/ https://t.co/7l20zR7CTr
Strategic Partnership Shouldn't Just Be German Production in China
Hope the "strategic partnership" is more than allowing German companies to produce in China for the German (and European) market ...
Turkmen Leader’s Visit to United States Remains Shrouded in Mystery
Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov made a low‑profile trip to the United States from February 16‑18, with reports suggesting a possible meeting at President Trump’s Mar‑a‑Lago club. Turkmen state media offered only vague remarks about fostering "mutually beneficial cooperation," while U.S. officials...
Civil War-Torn Sudan Sits On Unexplored Mineral Riches Worth Billions
Sudan, despite a civil war that began in 2023, is courting foreign investors to develop its largely untapped mineral portfolio that includes gold, copper, uranium and rare‑earth elements. Gold production set a new record of 70 tonnes in 2025, generating...
Azerbaijan to Build Baku Tram System
Azerbaijan announced a five‑line tram system for Baku, targeting completion by 2030. The first line will run from the city’s northern outskirts to the May 28 metro station, with an open tender for design and construction expected by the end of...
Lynx Investment Advisory Buy $5 Million of Akre Focus ETF
Lynx Investment Advisory disclosed a new $5.73 million position in the Akre Focus ETF (AKRE) during Q4 2025, purchasing 87,467 shares. The holding accounts for 3.1 % of Lynx’s reportable assets under management, though it sits outside the firm’s top five holdings....
South Korea, Turkey, Thailand Lead YTD Market Gains
Best performing stock markets in the world (local currency) year-to-date. 1. S Korea +34.7% 2. Turkey +24.1% 3. Thailand +18.6% In Asia only Indonesia, India negative. Malaysia is up only 4.3%.
Tongaat Hulett Collapse Looms
Tongaat Hulett, South Africa's leading sugar producer, is heading for provisional liquidation after its business rescue plan collapsed. The Vision Group's acquisition of lender claims and a debt‑to‑equity swap failed, leaving the rescue unimplementable. Cosatu warns the collapse will trigger...
AI Funding Set to Bring Mining Into 21st Century
At the recent African Mining Indaba, South Africa’s mining minister highlighted the country’s lagging digital cadastre and licensing system, which costs the economy roughly R70 bn annually. The United Arab Emirates’ $1 bn G20 AI for Development pledge is being positioned as...
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6.1 Million Workers Have the Most to Lose From AI
A Brookings Institution study finds that 6.1 million U.S. workers occupy jobs highly exposed to AI while possessing low ability to transition to new roles. Customer service representatives top the list of at‑risk occupations, and the cohort is 86 % women in...
Armenia Faces Nuclear Dilemma, U.S. Aid Could Break Deadlock
Armenia's power is supplied by what is widely considered the least safe nuclear reactor on the planet, and it has no money to replace it. With Russia occupied in Ukraine, the country is desperately searching for a solution. On one end,...
Wealth Manager Bets Big on International ETF
Wealth manager Financial Council disclosed a $10.55 million purchase of 159,189 shares of the iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (ACWX) on Feb. 4, 2026, raising the fund to 5.65% of its reportable assets. The ETF posted a 1‑year total return of 35.4%,...
Ethiopia’s 2024 Petrol Ban Saves $5B, Fuels
Ethiopia didn’t ban petrol cars in 2024 to hug trees: Importing oil was bleeding them dry - costing over $5b/ year in precious foreign exchange From close to zero before the 2024 ban, EV sales now make up over 60% of...
Power, Paranoia, and the People’s Liberation Army
The episode examines the recent high‑level purges within China’s People’s Liberation Army, focusing on the removal of veteran commander Zhang Youxia and what it reveals about Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power. Analysts discuss how these moves reflect deepening paranoia, potential...
What We Learned at the African Union Summit and Munich Security Conference
The latest Devex podcast recapped the African Union Summit and the Munich Security Conference, highlighting the African Continental Free Trade Area’s ongoing tariff reductions to boost intra‑African trade. Discussions emphasized the creation of strategic mineral corridors, with U.S. officials promising...
Why Trump Is Not to Blame for Europe’s Predicament | George Friedman
George Friedman argues that the United States should not be blamed for Europe’s security dilemma, emphasizing that both sides feel betrayed. He notes that Europe, a patchwork of nearly 50 nations, has the economic capacity to defend itself but lacks...
China's December Short‑term US Deposits Signal Backdoor Intervention
The China story in the TIC data isn't the slide in China's long-term holdings in US custodians -- it is the rise in China's bills and short-term deposits in December. That hints that some of the December surge in...
BONUS In Brief: Vibes Out of Munich
The episode dissects the 62nd Munich Security Conference, highlighting Europe’s push for strategic autonomy, lingering reliance on the U.S., and a shared sense that the post‑World War II liberal order is eroding. Guests note France’s view that autonomy is a strategic...
Developed Economies May Take Gold in Milan but Emerging Markets Are Winning Advisors
Emerging‑market equities have outpaced U.S. and European stocks in 2026, with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF up more than 11% year‑to‑date and 37% over the past twelve months. Wealth‑management firms are responding by raising EM exposure to roughly 10‑12%...
China‑Iran Alliance Turns Regional Conflict Into Global Threat
When great powers align, regional conflicts become global risks. China’s support of Iran is shifting the escalation ladder—and changing the strategic balance of the world. Understand what this means before it happens. Full analysis on website #Geopolitics #China #Iran #GlobalPower #Strategy
Labour Codes: Nearly Two Dozen Employer Compliances Listed
India’s labour and employment ministry has issued a handbook detailing nearly two dozen compliance obligations for employers under the four newly‑enforced labour codes. The codes—covering wages, social security, industrial relations, and occupational safety—replaced 29 legacy statutes on 21 November 2025. Obligations are...
Costa Rica Shifts From Tourism Icon to Diversified Investment Powerhouse
Costa Rica is evolving from a tourism destination known for low‑density eco‑luxury to a diversified investment hub that blends eco‑lodges, ultra‑luxury resorts, and branded all‑inclusive properties. Long‑standing sustainability policies and political stability have become qualifying criteria for global luxury brands...
Temnycky in Forbes on Europe’s Move to Phase Out Russian LNG in 2026
Mark Temnycky, a non‑resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote in Forbes that the European Union will fully phase out Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the end of 2026. The move is framed as a step toward greater energy...
Discussions for India's Full Membership of IEA Underway
The International Energy Agency has opened formal discussions to grant India full membership, building on its associate status since 2017 and a 2023 request. Ministers from IEA member states agreed in February 2024 to start talks, signaling a push to...
India-EU FTA to Open New Avenues for Trade, Investment: PM Modi, Greek Counterpart
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis affirmed that the recently concluded India‑EU Free Trade Agreement will unlock fresh trade and investment opportunities between India and the European Union. The leaders discussed expanding cooperation under the India‑Middle East‑Europe...
Maersk to Upsize India-USEC Capacity to Tap Post-Trade Deal Cargo Growth
Maersk announced a significant upsizing of its West India‑US East Coast (MECL) service to add incremental westbound container capacity. The move follows the United States’ reduction of tariffs on Indian‑made goods from 50% to 25%, with a further cut to...
Meloni's Ethiopia Visit Firms up Italy's Africa Plans
Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni visited Ethiopia to cement Italy’s renewed Africa strategy, highlighting the operational rollout of the Mattei Plan. The plan aims to turn Italy into an energy hub by building pipelines that export gas and hydrogen from...
Inside the Trump Trade Strategy with USTR’s Jamieson Greer
In a February 2026 Atlantic Council podcast, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer revisited the Trump administration’s aggressive trade agenda, focusing on the looming United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) review. Greer confirmed that a full U.S. withdrawal from the pact remains "on...
Congo Offers Rebel-Held Rubaya Tantalum Mine to US in Minerals Deal
The Democratic Republic of Congo has placed the rebel‑held Rubaya coltan mine on a shortlist of strategic assets offered to the United States under a new minerals‑cooperation framework. Rubaya, which supplies roughly 15% of the world’s coltan, requires between $50 million...
Comesa Probes Meta for Locking Rival Chatbots Out of WhatsApp
The COMESA Competition and Consumer Commission (CCCC) has opened an investigation into Meta Platforms Ireland Ltd for allegedly abusing its dominant position by amending WhatsApp Business Solution Terms in October 2025 to block rival AI chatbot providers. The probe follows...
Trump Wants US Energy Dominance. Global Markets May Not Agree
President Trump’s energy dominance agenda has boosted US fossil fuel output, with oil production reaching record levels and LNG exports rising over 20 percent. The administration has kept five coal‑fired plants operating through regulatory rollbacks and secured Pentagon contracts, while...
India-France to Set up National Centre of Excellence (NCoE) in Kanpur
India and France announced a joint National Centre of Excellence (NCoE) in Kanpur to deliver advanced aeronautics and defence skill training. The centre will operate under the PM‑SETU scheme, which earmarks Rs 60,000 crore to modernise 1,000 ITIs across India. It will...
EU-Backed Minerals Projects in Africa Move From Policy to Proof
The European Commission has granted strategic status to four African mineral projects—two in South Africa and Zambia, plus sites in Malawi and Madagascar—under the Critical Raw Materials Act, with decisions due in Q2 2026. The Zandkopsdrift rare‑earth operation in South Africa...
World Briefs | Rwanda Hikes Lending Rate on Higher Inflation
Rwanda’s central bank raised its key lending rate by 50 basis points to 7.25% on Thursday, reacting to a jump in consumer price inflation to 8.9% year‑on‑year in January. The move aims to bring inflation back within the bank’s 2‑8%...
Pakistan’s Search for Strategic Flexibility in South Asia
Amid waning external security guarantees, Pakistan has begun exploratory talks with Turkey and Saudi Arabia to create a flexible, informal security platform separate from its 2025 Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement with Riyadh. The trilateral dialogue focuses on defense‑industrial cooperation, with...
Veritas Looks Beyond Benchmarks to Frontier Markets for Carry
Veritas, the Finnish pension insurer, is moving past traditional credit benchmarks to chase carry in frontier‑market local‑currency bonds. Portfolio manager Ville Iso‑Mustajärvi argues that corporate spreads in developed markets are near historic lows, making high‑yield bonds unattractive due to equity‑like...
World Briefs | Nigeria’s Tinubu and Germany’s Merz Talk Security, Power Deal in Phone Call
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz discussed reviving a stalled electricity transmission project with Siemens and the purchase of used German helicopters, highlighting deeper security and power cooperation. France’s audit office warned that the country must shift...
Govt Identifies L1 Insurers for Restructured Weather Crop Insurance Scheme in J&K
The Government of Jammu and Kashmir has appointed Agriculture Insurance Company of India and Tata AIG General Insurance as the lowest‑bid insurers for the Restructured Weather‑Based Crop Insurance Scheme. The scheme will protect apple and saffron growers in Kashmir and mango,...
China’s Military Purges Won’t Change Its Taiwan Calculus
China’s recent military purges of senior PLA officers, including CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and member Liu Zhenli, are framed as anti‑corruption and ideological discipline measures. While the removals may temporarily affect command cohesion, the article argues they do not...
China’s Hidden Subsidies Dwarf IMF’s 4% Estimate
FT: “The IMF estimated that China spends about 4 per cent of its GDP subsidising companies in critical sectors, and said it should reduce that by 2 percentage points in the medium term.” This is a start, of course, but just...
China Overtakes Germany as Leading Car Exporter, Threatening German Industry
Good piece "For not only has China’s market begun to dry up for Germany, big chunks of German industry now regard China as a direct threat to their interests" Great chart China is a much bigger net exporter (of cars) now than Germany...
Kenya Drops Plan to Privatise Ports Agency
Kenya has abandoned its plan to privatise the Kenya Ports Authority, converting the agency into a publicly listed company under the Government Owned Enterprises (GOE) Act. The new law forces state‑owned entities with majority government ownership to operate on commercial,...
IMF Must Incorporate Lagged RMB in China Surplus Forecasts
A very important point The IMF needs a new methodology for forecasting China's external surplus, one that explicitly includes the RMB (with lags)
December Goods Deficit Rebounds to Fall‑2024 Levels
December goods deficit (ex oil) was back where it was in the fall of 2024, which seems like a fair read -- the October dip as a one off tied to reversing pharma front running a feared tariff and a...
Embraer and Mahindra Eye India MRO Hub if C-390 Wins IAF Contract
Embraer and India’s Mahindra Group announced a joint plan to establish a Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facility for the C‑390 Millennium, contingent on the aircraft winning the Indian Air Force’s Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) contract. The two firms have...
China’s Growth Model Shift Faces Deep Structural Hurdles
Now that there is a consensus on what has caused the imbalances and why they are so damaging to China and to the global economy, we have to begin to understand just why it will be so difficult for China...
China's Auto Export Surge Hits EU Markets, Tariffs Powerless
China's auto exports went vertical in Dec. '25. All those cars go to EM (red), not the G10 (blue). That complicates EU efforts to protect its car makers. China's export surge is decimating EU export markets. There's not much EU...
Bank Indonesia Keeps Rates Steady, as Rupiah Weakness Threatens to Delay Easing
Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% as the rupiah continued to weaken amid fiscal‑sustainability concerns and volatile investor sentiment. Moody’s downgraded Indonesia’s credit outlook to negative, reflecting uncertainty over policy direction and transparency. Real‑rate differentials with the...
Retail Investors Dump $8.3B, Near‑Historic Outflows
BofA Clients Sold Stocks at Near-Historic Levels via Bbrg: “Clients dumped US equities last week, with outflows reaching near-historic levels.” “Outflows were the *third highest* since records began in 2008.” [$8.3 Billion] *Who will be right: Retail/HFs or Institutions?