Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Where Do India and Pakistan Stand in Kazakhstan’s Southward Connectivity Push?
Kazakhstan is accelerating a southward connectivity push to secure Arabian Sea access, reducing reliance on Iran’s Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports. President Tokayev’s recent visit to Islamabad underscored a partnership focused on the Kazakhstan‑Turkmenistan‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan (KTAP) rail corridor and a broader Trans‑Afghanistan multimodal railway. While these routes promise faster, diversified trade links, they confront Afghanistan’s security volatility, gauge incompatibilities, and limited Pakistani port capacity. India remains peripheral due to enduring bilateral tensions, leaving its participation in the emerging corridors uncertain.
Historic Uncertainty Spurs Opportunities in AI and Energy Stocks
Thoughts? The World Uncertainty Index has surged to historic levels—exceeding Iraq War, COVID, and 9/11—and identify five stocks positioned to perform well under these geopolitical conditions: Palantir (AI battlefield intelligence), ExxonMobil and Cameco/CCJ (energy security), and NVIDIA (AI defense technology),...
‘Targeted Injection of Capacity’ Into Vietnam, Thailand Reshapes Ocean Networks
Ocean Alliance is injecting targeted capacity into Vietnam and Thailand in its Day 10 network update, turning ports like Haiphong and Laem Chabang into core deep‑sea origins. The shift adds four trans‑Pacific services to Haiphong and doubles West‑Coast sailings from Laem Chabang, while...
European Security Needs Turkey
Europe faces its most serious security shortfall in decades as reliance on U.S. defense guarantees wanes. The article argues that strategic autonomy must include re‑engaging Turkey, NATO’s most capable land force and a pivotal regional actor. It highlights the Trump...
Hedge Funds Slash US Equity Leverage, Yet Remain Highly Exposed
From GS Prime trading desk on Flows, via Bbrg: “Against a more challenging performance backdrop and tougher technicals, hedge funds have turned more defensive and net sold US equities MTD at the fastest pace since March 25,” the team led by...
Protecting Domestic EVs Requires Tariffs or Local Content Rules
Very good Rhodium piece on the cost advantage of Chinese EVs: “In practice, countries seeking to protect domestic industries have two broad options. One is to impose very high tariffs that account not only for subsidies but also for structural...
Commodity Boom Helps to Drive JSE Confidence
South Africa’s commodity surge—gold up 65% and platinum 125%—is fueling a boom on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, with mining firms delivering double‑digit returns. The JSE’s recent rule changes, cutting shareholder approval thresholds from 75% to 50% and aligning disclosure standards,...
India’s AI Surge: Codex Users Grow 4x Weekly
Great meeting with PM @narendramodi today to talk about the incredible energy around AI in India. India is our fastest growing market for codex globally, up 4x in weekly users in the past 2 weeks alone. 🇮🇳! https://t.co/MRbw0UkotJ
Why Verifying a Business in Africa Is Harder than Moving Money
Cross‑border payments in Africa now settle in seconds, but verifying the counterpart business can take weeks. The delay stems from fragmented, offline national registries and a lack of cross‑border data harmonisation, creating a “registry gap” that hampers the African Continental...
Why MAGA Fears Europe
President Donald Trump and his MAGA allies continue to cast the European Union as weak and misguided, a theme echoed at both Davos and the Munich Security Conference. The article counters this narrative, highlighting the EU’s social‑market model and its...
The Big Picture
At the 2025 Munich Security Conference, U.S. Vice President JD Vance delivered a sharply critical speech, accusing European allies of abandoning fundamental democratic values and curbing free speech to manage migration. In contrast, the 2026 conference saw Secretary of State...
Venezuelan Democracy Needs Action, Not Cheap Talk
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a Venezuela policy that puts oil reconstruction ahead of democratic elections. In a Fox News interview he pledged at least $100 billion from American oil firms to rebuild the country’s oil infrastructure, with the United States...
A New Iranian Revolution?
Iran’s economy is spiraling under soaring inflation, unemployment and renewed U.S. sanctions, stoking widespread public discontent. The Islamic Republic faces a legitimacy crisis that could trigger either systemic reform or outright collapse. Analysts warn that without a shift toward moderate...
Philippine Fast-Moving Consumer Goods Spending Growth Seen Slowing in 2026—Study
The Worldpanel by Numerator report projects Philippine FMCG spending to grow only 3‑4% in 2026, a sharp deceleration from last year’s 5.2% rise. The slowdown reflects weaker GDP growth, now seen at 5.3% versus an earlier 6% estimate, and higher...
Lesotho’s High-Altitude Bet: Can Tourism Infrastructure Turn a Mountain Kingdom Into an Investment Destination?
Lesotho is repositioning tourism as an infrastructure‑finance engine, using public‑private partnerships to attract private capital and extend visitor stays. The flagship Katse Tourist Village aims to turn a major reservoir into an eco‑destination that spurs roads, utilities and local supply...
Iran and the Gulf: Why Hedging Is No Longer Enough
The episode examines how Gulf states are moving beyond a hedging strategy toward Iran, recognizing that Iran’s internal turmoil now directly threatens their security and economic interests. It argues that reliance on crisis avoidance and U.S. guarantees is insufficient, and...
Local Contractor Wins $143m Jeddah Sewage Contracts
Saudi Arabia’s National Water Company awarded two sewage‑network contracts worth SR 536.3 million ($143 million) to local contractor Civil Works Company. The contracts, spanning 32 months, will upgrade pipelines and tunnels across northern Jeddah, covering neighborhoods such as Al‑Bashair, Al‑Asala, Al‑Falah and Al‑Hamdaniya....
Regional Infrastructure Demands Robust PPPs
Lamar Holding CEO Lina Noureddin told MEED that the Middle East’s infrastructure surge is increasingly reliant on public‑private partnerships to close financing gaps. She highlighted that robust PPP frameworks, clear regulatory guarantees and risk‑sharing models are essential for attracting institutional...
Saudi Arabia Prequalifies Firms for Gas Transmission Grids
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry announced the pre‑qualification of eight standalone firms and seven consortia to design, build, own and operate natural‑gas transmission grids in five key industrial cities. The BOO scheme targets Al‑Kharj, Sudair, and three Jeddah industrial zones, with...
US-India Trade Marathon Eyes April Finish Line
India and the United States are moving toward an interim trade agreement that is expected to be signed in April, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal announced. Negotiators will convene in Washington from Feb 23 to finalize the legal text, converting a...
E Vehicle Infrastructure Financing for High Growth
Vietnam aims to host one million electric vehicles by 2030, rising to 3.5 million by 2040, creating a clear need for 100,000‑350,000 public chargers. The paper argues that a shift from a single‑operator, brand‑specific network to an open, interoperable ecosystem will...
Economic Factors and Themes to Be Mindful Of
Investors face heightened global volatility in 2026 as leading central banks diverge—while the Fed and BoE continue rate cuts, the ECB sits near neutral and the BoJ tightens. Geopolitical flashpoints around the United States add safe‑haven demand, further weakening the...
Danang Positioned as Crucial Economic Hub for Central Vietnam
Danang’s 2045 master plan re‑imagines the city as a megacity and international financial centre, integrating coastal, mountainous and border zones. The Danang International Financial Centre (IFC) began operations in early 2026, focusing on digital finance, asset tokenisation and green‑finance solutions....
Southeast Asia Braces for 'Increasing Divergence' After Mixed 2025 Growth
2025 saw Southeast Asia split between export‑driven growth and contraction. Vietnam and Singapore recorded strong export gains despite U.S. tariff volatility, while the Philippines and Thailand were battered by severe weather events and political instability, dragging their economies down. The...
Japanese Market 'More Dynamic' Than London, Says Apollo CEO
Apollo Global Management’s CEO Marc Rowan told Nikkei that Japan’s corporate finance market is becoming more dynamic than London’s, prompting Apollo to expand its private‑credit platform in the country. He highlighted the need for long‑dated funding to support infrastructure, energy...
COMMENT: Myanmar’s Fragile Post‑election Balancing Act
Myanmar’s December‑January 2025‑26 election was conducted solely in areas under junta control, cementing the military’s claim to power while excluding large swaths of the population. The vote did little to curb the civil war, as resistance forces—including the People’s Defence...
All Global Experiences Useful for Vietnam S International Financial Hub
Vietnam aims to build an international financial centre by drawing on global precedents such as Dubai’s DIFC, China’s Shenzhen and Hangzhou, and Kazakhstan’s AIFC. Experts stress that independent, long‑term regulation, niche specialization in digital and green finance, and adaptive legal...
Raised Ties Reaffirm Strategic Trust
Vietnam and the United Kingdom have upgraded their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, the highest tier in Vietnam’s foreign‑policy framework. The deal follows Party General Secretary To Lam’s October visit to Britain and opens cooperation in politics, security, trade, education...
Meta Faces Probe Across 21 African Markets
Meta Platforms is under a COMESA investigation for altering WhatsApp Business API terms that favor its own AI tools, raising competition concerns across 21 African markets. In Nigeria, fintech Risevest secured a Securities and Exchange Commission fund‑manager licence after restructuring,...
India Sets ₹25,000 Crore Export Engine in Motion as Goyal Launches Plan
India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal launched the ₹25,060‑crore Export Promotion Mission (EPM), a six‑year programme designed to boost outbound shipments and simplify export processes. The initiative consolidates multiple support schemes into a single, digitally driven framework aimed at micro, small...
125 International Companies Exit Pakistan Amid Corruption Claims
#PakWatch🇵🇰: 125 international companies are ceasing operations in Pakistan. PAK = CORRUPT = 3RD WORLD https://t.co/tmHXxbtj8I
Five Things to Know to Start Your Day
Nigeria's federal government ordered ministries to defer 70% of the 2025 capital budget to 2026, limiting new projects to prioritize existing ones amid weak revenues. The Independent Corrupt Practices Commission raided former Kaduna governor Nasir El‑Rufai’s Abuja home as he remains...
Strong Manufacturing Growth Lifts Flash PMI to Three-Month High of 59.3 in Feb
India’s flash Composite PMI rose to 59.3 in February, its strongest level in three months, driven by a surge in manufacturing activity. Total new orders grew at the fastest pace since November, pushing output to a four‑month high, while services...
Before the Ladder: Fixing Nigeria’s Broken Education Floor
Nigeria’s education system remains a fragile floor, with over 18 million children out of school and a majority of 10‑year‑olds unable to read basic texts. Public primary schools often lack essential infrastructure such as classrooms, furniture, sanitation, and reliable electricity, while...
Adani Power Limited Enters Nuclear Segment as India Opens Sector
Adani Power Limited has created a wholly‑owned subsidiary, Adani Atomic Energy Limited, to enter India’s nuclear power generation market. The move follows the Indian government’s SHANTI Bill, which relaxes licensing and permits controlled private participation in nuclear projects. The new...
China, Afghanistan, and Critical Minerals: Options for U.S. Strategic Competition Below the Threshold of War
Afghanistan has re‑emerged as a venue for great‑power competition below the threshold of war, with China pursuing cautious economic engagement focused on mineral extraction and limited infrastructure projects. U.S. analysis shows Chinese contracts have underperformed and remain exploratory, leaving a...
Red Lines and the Reshaping of Asia’s Maritime Order
Former Chinese Vice‑Foreign Minister Fu Ying warned that the Philippines’ attempts to occupy Second Thomas Shoal and Sabina Shoal cross a newly articulated Chinese “red line.” The warning was backed by a June 2024 incident in which China Coast Guard vessels...
Africa Needs Patient Capital for the Long Term
Africa’s growth potential is hampered by a $350 billion SME financing gap and annual infrastructure needs of $130‑170 billion, far exceeding current investment. While the continent’s population tops 1.5 billion and GDP surpasses $3 trillion, capital flows remain fragmented and short‑term. The article argues...
PENGASSAN Warns Tinubu’s Order on NNPC Revenues Could Lead to Job Losses
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) warned that President Bola Tinubu’s February 18 executive order, which channels oil and gas revenues directly into the federation account, undermines the financial autonomy granted to NNPC Limited under the...
Samsung Electronics, KT Hit Record 6G Speeds in 7GHz Band
Samsung Electronics, Korean carrier KT and test‑equipment firm Keysight reported a record 3 Gbps downlink in the 7 GHz band, a core frequency earmarked for 6G. The speed was achieved using a prototype base station with massive MIMO architecture that transmitted eight...
Pax Silica Pact: India Plugs Into US Tech Alliance to Secure Chips, AI and Critical Minerals
India signed the Pax Silica Declaration at the India AI Impact Summit, formally joining the U.S.-led technology coalition that spans semiconductors, artificial intelligence and critical minerals. The pact reinforces a full‑stack supply‑chain partnership aimed at reducing reliance on hostile or coercive...
Why Global Capital Is Looking at India Differently This Year
India’s economy is gaining traction through robust digital public infrastructure and maturing regulatory frameworks, positioning it as a distinct asset class for global investors. The latest Union Budget underscores this shift by offering a 20‑year tax holiday and a flat...
China’s Submarine Surge Testing Pacific’s Undersea Balance
China’s nuclear‑submarine production has accelerated dramatically, with the Bohai shipyard launching more hulls in 2021‑25 than the entire previous decade and overtaking the United States in annual launches for the first time. The yard now produces roughly two Type‑093B attack...
Pakistani PM Holds Talks with Rubio After Washington Summit
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington on Feb 19, focusing on cooperation in critical minerals, energy, counter‑terrorism and potential American investment. The discussion also highlighted Pakistan’s backing of President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan...
Indonesian Tycoon Mochtar Riady’s OUE REIT Seeks Buyers For Prime Singapore CBD Tower
OUE Commercial REIT, controlled by Indonesian tycoon Mochtar Riady, is seeking buyers for its flagship One Raffles Place tower in Singapore’s CBD. The sale, handled by CBRE and JLL, targets a reserve price of up to S$2.4 billion, roughly 24% above...
Busan Deal: US Sacrific
The impact of the "Busan" deal is now in the trade data -- the US clearly gave up a bit of tariff revenue (lowering the tariff on China) for a bit of supply chain peace, and the prospect of...
Infra Sector Outlook Cautious as Weak Q3 Performance Leads to 4% YoY Contraction: Nuvama Research
India's infrastructure sector posted a 4% year‑on‑year revenue contraction in Q3 FY26, driven by eroding order books, payment delays, prolonged monsoons and construction bans. Average EBITDA margin slipped 40 basis points to 10.1%, while adjusted PAT margin fell to 5.2%....
Vietnam Making the Leap Into AI and Semiconductors
Vietnam is targeting a selective role in the AI and semiconductor value chains, emphasizing manufacturing, testing, packaging and applied AI rather than frontier chip design. The strategy builds on a mature electronics production base, abundant skilled labor and strong ASEAN...
US Pays About $160m Towards Nearly $4bn in UN Dues
The United States transferred roughly $160 million toward its nearly $4 billion UN arrears, a modest contribution amid a broader shortfall. Washington still owes about $2.196 billion for the UN’s regular budget and $1.8 billion for peacekeeping operations. President Trump, long critical of the...
IMF Estimates Chinese Yuan Undervalued by Roughly 19%
Just how undervalued is the Chinese yuan -- the IMF (via the Economist) just revised its estimate up to 19% (plus or minus 4%) 1/many https://t.co/IJ4Z1SmGIq