Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
2026-02-23: U.S.-Japan Address China's Nuclear Buildup Amid Regional Military Tensions
The EU faces a three‑fold pressure set: stalled Russia‑Ukraine peace talks, intensified Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, and Hungary and Slovakia using the Druzhba oil pipeline as leverage over EU decisions. Because EU sanctions require unanimity, the energy transit dispute has become a bargaining chip for the planned €90 billion loan to Ukraine and the next sanctions package. Executives with exposure to Central Europe, energy logistics, or Russian markets must prepare for a prolonged coercive environment that could shift financing flows and regulatory conditions at short notice.
Russia-Ukraine War: List of Key Events, Day 1,460
Ukrainian officials reported a deadly attack in Lviv that killed a policewoman and wounded dozens, while overnight Russian strikes hit Kyiv and several regions, targeting energy infrastructure and residential buildings. Ukraine’s air force said it intercepted 307 of 345 Russian...
Queensland Gov’t Trade Mission Targets Manufacturing and Resources Growth in East Asia
The Queensland Government announced a trade mission to South Korea and Japan, led by Minister Dale Last, to boost investment in the state’s mining, critical‑minerals and manufacturing sectors. The delegation will promote coal, gas, and the revived Queensland Train Manufacturing...
China Weekly Wrap: Markets, Macro & Tech
The episode reviews the Asian market landscape during the week of Feb 15‑20, 2026, highlighting that Mainland China’s Lunar New Year closure shifted price discovery offshore, with earnings-driven rotation favoring North Asian hardware stocks. Korea led the earnings surge thanks...
Geopolitical Risk and Supply Chain Diversification
A new study of Japanese multinational corporations shows that rising geopolitical risk is prompting firms to diversify supply chains away from China toward ASEAN economies, rather than fully relocating production. Using the Caldara‑Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk index and firm‑level trade and...
Trade Data Gaps Between China and Central Asian States Point to Pervasive Smuggling
A joint review of Chinese, Kazakh and Kyrgyz customs data reveals massive discrepancies in reported trade values, with China claiming $48.7 billion in exports to Kazakhstan and $27.2 billion to Kyrgyzstan in 2025, while the two neighbours report only $34.1 billion and $5 billion...
What Will Trump’s Latest Sweeping Tariffs Mean for the World?
President Donald Trump announced a sweeping 15 percent tariff on all imports, following a recent 10 percent levy introduced after a Supreme Court ruling struck down much of his earlier tariff regime. The across‑the‑board duty removes sector exemptions, injecting fresh uncertainty into...
World Bank Must Demand Accountability
World Bank’s poverty‑reduction mission is compromised by weak oversight in many developing nations, where borrowed funds are often diverted into election‑timed projects and opaque schemes. The article highlights how political opportunism inflates contracts, disguises debt as generosity, and undermines public...
India-France Tax Shift Threatens P-Note Trade
India is poised to amend its treaty with France, stripping French investors of the capital‑gains exemption for holdings under 10% and raising dividend withholding to 15% for those stakes. The change would also halve the dividend tax to 5% for...
Mexico's 0.8% Growth Lags US, Marks EM Failure
In 2024 and 2025, Mexico grew at an annualized pace of 0.8%, even as the US grew at an annualized pace of 2.3% in those two years. Mexico's growth stagnation, which - outside of COVID - has now lasted since...
Argentina's Dollar Peg Has Never Delivered Stability
For as long as I can remember, Argentina has tried to become credible and stable by pegging the Peso to the Dollar. The success rate of this strategy - in all the years it's been tried - is exactly ZERO....
India Pauses Its Trade Team Visit to Evaluate US Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
India has postponed its scheduled trade delegation visit to Washington after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Trump. The court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize the tariffs, prompting Trump...
DRC, Belgium, and KoBold Metals in Dispute Over Colonial Mineral Archives
A dispute has emerged between the Democratic Republic of Congo, Belgium, and U.S. firm KoBold Metals over access to colonial-era geological archives housed at Belgium’s AfricaMuseum. The DRC wants to partner with KoBold to digitize data on cobalt, lithium and...
Kolwezi to Host DRC Critical Minerals & Industrialization Forum in October 2026
The Democratic Republic of Congo will host the inaugural DRC Critical Minerals & Industrialization Forum in Kolwezi from 7 to 9 October 2026, co‑hosting with the DRC‑Africa Battery Metals Forum. The event targets cobalt and lithium, aiming to shift the...
‘Green’ Growth on Inland Waterways
The Inland Waterways Development Council (IWDC) unveiled a ₹1,500 crore roadmap to expand India’s inland water transport network, laying foundations for projects exceeding ₹150 crore, including cruise jetties in six states. Cargo movement on national waterways surged to 145.84 million tonnes in 2024‑25,...
Interview with Arigato Investor ありがとう投資家 04.02.2026
In this episode, The Macro Butler interviews the Arigato Investors to explore why gold remains a safe‑haven asset during market turbulence and how its appeal is evolving. They discuss the shifting financial centre of gravity toward Asia, highlighting Hong Kong and...
UN Agency Urges Investment to Boost Youth Employment
The UN Economic Commission for Africa warned that Africa’s massive youth cohort can become a global growth engine if investment is better linked to bankable projects. While capital exists, investors demand scale, security and market access, which the continent must...
EU-India FTA to Unlock Trade Growth, AI Collaboration and Resilient Supply Chains: Austrian Official
The European Union and India have reached a landmark free‑trade agreement that will slash tariffs on the vast majority of bilateral trade, covering 96.6% of EU exports to India and 99.5% of Indian exports to the EU. Austrian State Secretary...
US Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs: Why Emkay Sees India as Beneficiary Amid Trump's Flip-Flops
The U.S. Supreme Court nullified President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting the administration to replace them with a blanket 15% tariff under Section 122. This shift lowers the average U.S. tariff rate to about...
Indonesia Faces Record Share Sales to Meet Free-Float Goal
Indonesia must orchestrate a record‑size share sale to lift the free‑float of 267 listed firms to at least 15%, up from the current 7.5% floor. The Indonesia Stock Exchange estimates the required issuance will total about 187 trillion rupiah (approximately S$14 billion),...
Tour Operator Sets Aside $72m for Lodges Expansion
SafariCo Group is allocating $72 million to expand and refurbish its Tanzanian lodges, backed by a $50 million International Finance Corporation loan. The plan adds 184 rooms, pushing the portfolio beyond 1,000 keys across the Elewana, Explorer and Sopa brands. Tanzania’s tourism...
Iran War Risk Surge Threatens Oil Markets
🔴 IRAN WAR RISK IS ESCALATING FAST Military buildup. Failing diplomacy. Rising oil volatility. Subscribers have been tracking the escalation path and the market consequences before the headlines. Know what comes next. ⚠️Subscribe now on website⚠️ #Iran #Geopolitics #WarRisk #Oil #GlobalRisk
AI Could Be the First Non‑displacing Productivity Wave
L: Productivity miracle 1.0 - autos (white) replace horses (orange) in 10 yrs; horses never recover R: Productivity miracle 2.0 - China replaces US manufacturing workers; US mfg workers down ~35% in 10 yrs Productivity miracle 3.0 - AI v. white-collar jobs;...
Yoco’s Marcello Schermer Says the Next Test for African Fintech Is Smarter Tools
Yoco’s international expansion chief Marcello Schermer says African fintechs must evolve from passive transaction recorders to proactive financial partners. After a decade of digitising payments, the continent now hosts over 5,000 startups and attracted $1.37 billion in 2024, with fintech capturing...
Asia Confirmed as Global Manufacturing Hub, ILO Shows
Asia as global manufacturing hub, shown by the ILO. More sources featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/bpfQbXlbHK
Questioning US Balance‑of‑Payments Deficit Under Section 122
So does the US have a balance of payments deficit for purposes of section 122 of the trade law (and thus the basis for imposing a 15% tariff). It is an interesting question 1/ many https://t.co/JidbJk37vw
US Tariffs on India Reset to 15% After Supreme Court Ruling: How Did Duties Swing From 26% to 50% and...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act cannot be used to impose sweeping global tariffs, forcing the Trump administration to abandon the IEEPA‑based duties on India. Hours later, President Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade...
Xi Holds the Leverage as Trump’s Tariff Threats Backfire
When it comes to Trump's tariff threats on China, it's clear that chairman Xi holds all the cards. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = BACKFIRE. https://t.co/ACGdxKxjr0
IEA Begins Brazil’s Path to Full Membership
Thank you to President @LulaOficial, Minister @asilveiramg & Minister Vieira for their request for 🇧🇷 to become an @IEA Member Very happy IEA Members unanimously decided at our Ministerial to start the process for 🇧🇷’s full membership in a major step for...
Capitalising Africa's Youth Dividend
At the Africa Business Forum 2026 in Addis Ababa, leaders launched the Jobs Wall Commitment Tracker to record public and private sector job promises. The gathering emphasized that Africa’s youthful demographic demands risk‑tolerant, long‑term capital focused on research, innovation, and...
India’s GDP Growth to Moderate to 7.2% in Q3FY26: ICRA
ICRA projects India’s year‑on‑year GDP growth to ease to 7.2% in Q3 FY 2025‑26, down from 8.2% in the prior quarter. The slowdown is driven by weaker services (+7.8% versus +9.2%) and agriculture (+3.0% versus +3.5%) growth, even as industrial output...
Lacson: Senate to Discuss Rules on Dialogue with Chinese Embassy
The Philippine Senate will convene an all‑senators’ caucus on Feb 23 to set ground rules for talks with the Chinese Embassy over the West Philippine Sea dispute, with Senate President Pro Tempore Panfilo Lacson emphasizing diplomatic courtesy and the possibility of...
India Skips One‑Sided US Deal, Outpaces Indonesia
Thursday, Indonesia’s Pres. Prabowo signed a one-sided US-Indonesia trade deal. Indonesia was slammed with a 19% tariff, while nearly all IDN tariffs on the US were eliminated. In contrast, P.M. Modi has wisely not signed a U.S.–India deal. INDIA LEAVES INDONESIA IN...
Japan Bill Requires Airlines Deny Boarding to Unauthorized Visitors
Japan's government will submit an immigration reform bill requiring airlines to deny boarding to travelers lacking pre‑travel authorization starting fiscal 2028. The measure obliges visa‑exempt visitors to declare occupation, purpose and accommodation online, with the Immigration Services Agency verifying data...
Trump Now Wants to Impose 15% Tariff After Supreme Court Decision
President Donald Trump announced a new 15% tariff on imports, raising the rate from the 10% he mentioned a day earlier. The increase follows a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated his earlier reciprocal and fentanyl‑related tariffs. Trump said the tariffs...
Organizers of the Winter Games Made Clean Energy a Priority. Here's How They Did It
The 2026 Milan‑Cortina Winter Olympics have pledged that virtually all electricity powering the Games will come from certified renewable sources. Enel will supply roughly 85 GWh of clean power, using guarantee‑of‑origin certificates to prove its green origin. Infrastructure upgrades, including new...
THE FASTEST-GROWING TOURISM DESTINATIONS REVEALED
Emerging markets in Brazil, Ethiopia, and Egypt led 2025’s fastest tourism growth, with global arrivals hitting 1.52 billion, a 4 % rise. Brazil saw a 37 % surge to 9.3 million visitors, driven by new air routes and Embratur marketing. Egypt’s Grand Egyptian Museum...
Kuwait’s CGCC Secures Gas Gathering Contract in PNZ
Kuwait’s Combined Contracting Group Co. (CGCC) secured a KWD 10.2 million contract to provide gas‑gathering support services in the Partitioned Neutral Zone (PNZ) at the Al‑Wafra Joint Operations facility, a partnership between Kuwait Gulf Oil Co. and Chevron Saudi Arabia. The deal...
Japan's Deep-Sea Rare Earths: Promise Meets Extraction Hurdle
Japan’s deep-sea rare earth find at Minamitorishima sounds like a game-changer. And on paper, it is. The 50-50 mix of light and heavy rare earths is impressive, especially since heavy elements are the truly scarce ones. The bad news is it’s...
Stop Political Violence
Political violence in Kenya has resurfaced, highlighted by police using teargas and live fire at an ODM rally in Kitengela and a subsequent disruption of a public meeting in Kakamega. Human‑rights organisations warn that women and children suffer disproportionately as...
Slovak Government Could Have Boosted Czechoslovak Group with Defence Contracts Ahead of IPO, Anti-Graft Watchdog Says
Slovak journalists allege that the Ministry of Defence awarded Czechoslovak Group (CSG) €60.36 bn in contracts after the 2023 election, potentially to lift investor sentiment ahead of CSG’s January 2026 Amsterdam IPO. The IPO raised a record‑size defence offering, valuing CSG at...
A Look at Our Geopolitical Analysis Process
In this 17‑minute episode, South America analyst Mario Braga explains RANE’s geopolitical analysis methodology, illustrating it with the shifting U.S.–Venezuela relationship. He details how analysts monitor political, economic, and security indicators, assess scenario probabilities, and translate findings into actionable intelligence...
Iran’s Rial Collapse Mirrors Lebanon’s Crisis, Driving Citizens to Bitcoin
The Iranian rial has collapsed in 2026, spurring hyperinflation and prompting middle‑class savers to flee the banking system. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have attracted billions of dollars, echoing Lebanon’s 2019‑2021 crisis where crypto became a financial lifeline. On‑chain data shows...
Weaker Dollar Spurs Record Foreign Inflows
1. Chart in original post shows the weaker USD (DXY) gets, the more flows will move into USD assets...& DXY had biggest drop in 52 yrs in 1H25👇 2. So as long as DXY keeps falling 10-15%/yr, foreign** inflows will grow **37%...
Tariff Refunds Benefit Importers, Not Shoppers
A tariff “refund” mostly goes to whoever wrote the tariff check: the importer of record. That’s not the same person who paid more at the register. So refunds -- if they're offered -- might sound like consumer relief, but in...
FDI Feint Glorifies Global South Base
The episode examines recent trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) to emerging markets, noting that high‑frequency data shows a steady $10 billion per week inflow, while UNCTAD’s lagging figures report a 2% decline to $875 billion last year. It explores how short‑term...
Trump's Tariff Threats Persist, Undermining Economic Certainty
If you thought Trump would stop throwing around tariffs right, left, and centre after Friday’s ruling, think twice… I still think the impact is blown out of proportion by the media, but it does affect economic sentiment due to the lack...
Trump's Threats Prompt Modi to Dismantle India’s Protections
My take on MODI'S WIN over Trump in the US-India Trade Deal: "Ironically, Trump's threats have allowed Modi to dismantle some of India's protectionist measures. Previously, the dismantling wouldn't have been possible. Now Modi can say, 'Enemy Trump made...
Ukraine's 'Flamingos' Fly 1,300+ Km Deep in Russia to Hit Putin's Missile Megafactory
The episode examines Ukraine’s covert ‘Flamingo’ drone operations that penetrated over 1,300 km into Russian territory to strike a major missile production facility linked to President Putin. It outlines the technical capabilities of the drones, the strategic impact of disrupting...
Dollar's Decline Signals Shift; Reconsider Your Investments
Oh boy. “DOLLAR in DECLINE” “The U.S. currency has lost its dominance. What investors should do now.”