Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
To Harness Saudi Arabia’s Demographic Dividend, Riyadh Must Invest in Human Capital
Saudi Arabia has appointed Fahad Al‑Saif as minister of investment, signaling a pivot from pure capital accumulation to a focus on total factor productivity. Foreign direct investment inflows have surged from roughly $3 billion in 2019 to $22‑28 billion today, while outbound capital includes a $3 billion stake in Elon Musk’s xAI via the state‑backed Humain. The kingdom’s youthful demographic—23% aged 10‑24 and 75% of working age—offers a potential dividend, but only if capital is channeled into human‑capital development. Success will hinge on translating financial resources into skills, innovation and higher labor productivity.
DICT Outlines Massive 18GW Data Center Expansion to Lead ASEAN
Philippines’ Department of Information and Communications Technology announced an 18‑gigawatt data‑center expansion plan over the next decade, aiming to become Southeast Asia’s digital hub. The rollout targets 1.5 GW of new capacity by end‑2027 and at least 1 GW annually thereafter. Investments...
African Guarantee Fund: De-Risking Africa's Growth Story
The African Guarantee Fund (AGF) has leveraged nearly $3 billion in guarantees to mobilise $6.5 billion in loans for micro, small and medium enterprises across 44 African nations. By sharing credit risk with partner banks, the fund has reached more than 50,000...
Nepal's Soyoil Exports to India Jump Tenfold on Duty Free Access
Nepal's soybean oil exports to India surged more than tenfold in 2025, reaching a record 694,153 metric tons and generating over $1 billion in revenue. The growth was driven by duty‑free access under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement, allowing Nepal...
Govt Plans to Expand Domestic Shipping Industry to Reduce Dependence on Foreign Vessels: Sanjeev Sanyal
India is launching a ₹77,000 crore programme to build a domestic merchant fleet and expand shipbuilding, aiming to cut its reliance on foreign vessels that handle more than 90% of imports and exports. The plan prioritises ship construction, port upgrades, and...
Policy Blindspots Threaten Nigeria’s .ng Domain Adoption, NiRA Flags
Nigeria’s digital strategy hinges on expanding the local .ng domain, but the Nigeria Internet Registration Association (NiRA) warns that policy gaps are stalling adoption. Although the 2025 Nigeria First Policy obliges government bodies to migrate to .ng addresses and host...
China’s Scale‑Subsidy Strategy Decimates Global Industries
China didn’t compete. It demolished entire industries through one ruthless strategy: build massive scale, use subsidies and currency manipulation, export at prices no one can match. Furniture, Solar Panels, Telecom Infrastructure, Textiles, Toys, etc. Gone. And 10 more industries are already under attack. My...
Securities Dealers Call for Prudence as Nigerian Stocks Rally
The Association of Securities Dealing Houses of Nigeria (ASHON) warned investors to exercise prudence as the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) enjoys a sustained rally. While renewed confidence and stronger macro‑economic sentiment are fueling price gains, ASHON cautioned that many stocks...
Russia Moves to Bring Crypto Market Under Full State Control
Russia's central bank and finance ministry are drafting legislation to establish a fully regulated domestic cryptocurrency market. The bill, slated for Duma submission in March, would require licensed exchanges, depositories, brokers and asset managers under Central Bank supervision, taking effect...
Unlocking Rs 40 Lakh Crore: Govt's Mega Bet on India's Infra Future
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman launched NMP 2.0, a second‑phase asset‑monetisation drive that targets over 2,000 public infrastructure assets across 12 ministries. The programme aims to generate Rs 16.7 lakh crore in total proceeds, with Rs 10.8 lakh crore expected between 2025‑26 and 2029‑30. Revenues will be recycled...
What Africa's Banks Can Steal From China's Playbook
The China Development Bank (CDB) grew its balance sheet to $2.6 trillion with a 0.37 % non‑performing loan ratio by leveraging bundled project lending and provincial platform companies. African multilateral financial institutions now control $70 billion to $320 billion in capital, positioning them to...
What India’s New Inflation Data Is Hiding | The Great Confusing CPI (Consumer Price Index) Reset
India has unveiled a revamped Consumer Price Index, shifting the base year from 2012 to 2024 and overhauling the basket composition and weighting methodology. The new series shows a headline retail inflation of 2.75% in January 2026, markedly lower than...
Fresh Math for World's Fastest Growing Economy: What's Behind India's GDP Revision and Why It Matters
India will revise its GDP series on Feb 27, moving the base year from 2011‑12 to 2022‑23 to better reflect digital services, renewable energy and post‑pandemic consumption patterns. The overhaul introduces double‑deflation accounting, the Proportional Denton method for quarterly‑annual alignment, and...
Milestone Systems Opens Asia Experience Centre in Singapore
Milestone Systems announced the launch of its Asia Experience Centre in Singapore, expanding its regional footprint and providing a live‑lab for AI‑enabled video solutions. The centre supports Singapore’s national AI agenda and offers governments, enterprises, and critical infrastructure operators a...
US Formally Warned Kyiv over Attacks on Russia that Damage American Oil Majors’ Interests, Says Ambassador
The United States delivered a formal diplomatic warning to Kyiv after Ukrainian drones struck the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key export gateway for Kazakh crude that underpins American oil majors' interests. The attack disabled a single‑point mooring,...
Romania’s Government Approves Public Administration Reform, Economic Stimulus Package
Romania’s cabinet approved a sweeping public‑administration decree that will cut roughly 10% of civil‑service staff – about 12,800 jobs – and impose unified wage standards on the majority of local units. The same session cleared an economic relaunch package featuring...
Yuan Deposits Rise, Household Growth Slows, Non‑bank Surge Persists
Yicai: "Chinese yuan deposits saw strong year-on-year growth in January, but the pattern of slower household deposit growth alongside faster non-bank deposit growth persisted. Industry insiders said this does not mean that money is leaving the banking system, nor does...
Who Showed up — and Who Didn’t — for Kyiv’s Big Day
Europe marked the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full‑scale invasion with a high‑profile solidarity event in Kyiv, where EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Portugal’s Prime Minister António Costa stood beside President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The gathering showcased symbolic support...
Godongwana Holds Better Budget Cards but Economic Recovery Remains Inadequate
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is set to present a 2026 budget bolstered by higher-than‑expected tax receipts, driven by a commodity price surge and improved collection efficiency. Despite the fiscal headroom, his GDP outlook remains bleak, projecting growth under 2%—far short...
Emerging Markets Outpace US Stocks Since 2024 Peak
🚨Have US stocks PEAKED? The US stocks versus emerging market equities ratio has been falling for the last 15 months, after peaking in November 2024. Over this period, emerging market stocks have returned +48% while the S&P 500 delivered just +15%👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
Sifuna: I'm Open to Alliance with United Opposition
Kenyan Senate leader Edwin Sifuna announced that his Linda Mwananchi Initiative, a breakaway faction from the ODM, is open to joining the United Opposition ahead of the 2027 presidential election. The prospective alliance aims to consolidate anti‑Ruto forces and present...
As US Tech Giants Become Cable Giants, It’s Time We Pay Attention to Our Seabeds
U.S. tech giants such as Google, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft are increasingly becoming sole owners of undersea data cables, giving them unprecedented control over global internet traffic. Amid heightened geopolitical tensions, President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs and hinted at...
MSME Workers Deliver Just 14% of Large-Firm Output; Informality Is Costing India Billions
India’s MSMEs employ 330 million workers, accounting for 62 % of non‑agricultural jobs and about 30 % of GDP, yet their workers generate only 14 % of the output of large‑firm employees. The productivity gap stems from widespread informality, low formal skill training, and...
Loom Games Claims “Unicorn” Crown in Record Time for Turkish Startup
Los Angeles‑based Scopely agreed to acquire a majority stake in Istanbul‑born mobile‑game studio Loom Games, valuing the company at over $1 billion through a performance‑based structure. Loom, founded in August 2025, launched its first title “Pixel Flow” in September, attracting more than 10 million...
Bangladesh Election Reduces Political Uncertainty but Forthcoming Reform Execution Remains Critical
Bangladesh’s February 12 election gave the Bangladesh Nationalist Party a decisive parliamentary super‑majority, easing short‑term political uncertainty. The win clears the path for a long‑awaited constitutional referendum that could reshape the legislature, judiciary and prime‑ministerial term limits. Fitch Ratings notes that...
Panama Seizes Two Canal Ports
Panama's government announced the seizure of two strategic ports along the Panama Canal, citing national security and revenue concerns. The move follows a series of regulatory actions aimed at tightening state control over critical infrastructure. Officials indicated that the ports...
Vaca Muerta's Promise Stalls Behind Fiscal and Infrastructure Hurdles
Argentina’s Vaca Muerta looks great on paper, but it’s not the next Permian. Argentina’s fiscal mess, weak infrastructure, & massive capex needs are real barriers. Continental’s hype says as much about a fading Bakken play as it does about Vaca Muerta. https://t.co/SGzycaNHEd #Oil...
Ramadan Continues Amid Libya’s 56% Annual Inflation.
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Ramadan celebrations continue, but soaring prices leave many in Libya struggling. Today, I measure Libya’s inflation at 56.3%/yr. THE WEST'S REGIME CHANGE, WITH THE DECAPITATION AND REMOVAL OF GADDAFI = DESTROYED LIBYA. https://t.co/velLOmEvbM
Uzbekistan Looks West for Help in Developing Entrepreneurial Spirit
Uzbekistan announced a partnership with Harvard, Stanford and the London School of Economics to launch the "Next Generation Entrepreneurs" program, overseen by the Youth Affairs Agency. The initiative targets at least 40,000 students with business‑management training, while the top 1,000...
Net‑Zero 2050 Dead, Fossil Fuels Essential, Solar Booms
COLUMN: Net zero by 2050 is effectively dead: Oil, natural gas and coal will remain crucial for meeting the world's energy needs. But that doesn't mean the end of renewable energy. Solar, in particular, is thriving, and will continue to...
Shanghai Loosens Homebuying Rules to Combat Property Slump
Bloomberg: "Shanghai eased homebuying rules, in the latest attempt by authorities to contain the nation’s prolonged property slump." https://t.co/7gAmMs7Onw
Uzbekistan Resilient Electricity Transmission Project
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) approved the procurement plan for Uzbekistan’s Resilient Electricity Transmission Project on February 25, 2026, committing 100% financing for a $1.324 million consulting package. Two contracts were cleared: a $24,000 individual consultancy and a $1.3 million project‑preparation...
Spring Festival 2026 Consumer Sales Jump 13.7% YoY
1/3 Xinhua: "According to China's value-added tax invoice data, the 2026 Spring Festival holiday saw the average daily sales revenues of consumer-related industries increase by 13.7 percent from last year's Spring Festival holiday." https://t.co/kWT8ZTr29T
WSJ Dismisses Balance of Payments, Sparks Skepticism
Well, the WSJ oped page lost me with statement that the balance of payments is a non issue ... 1/2
What’s Next for Ukraine: Investment
Ukraine will emerge from the war burdened with massive debt, but experts Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maurice Obstfeld argue that restructuring—potentially including outright forgiveness—is essential to attract private capital. They estimate a $40 billion annual investment gap, split between rebuilding destroyed assets,...
A Tale of Two Financial Centres: Brexit Uncertainty and the Fragility of Cross-Border Capital Flows
A new firm‑level study of Swiss‑UK capital linkages finds that the Brexit referendum’s surge in policy uncertainty sharply reduced short‑term debt flows from Swiss‑resident firms to the United Kingdom, while equity investments remained stable. The contraction is driven almost entirely...
Georgia Dream Government Strives to Enforce Its Legitimacy
Georgia's ruling Georgian Dream party has pushed amendments that criminalize "systematic" non‑recognition of the government, imposing up to three years in prison. The law targets dissent over the contested October 2024 parliamentary elections, which international observers deemed neither free nor fair....
Middle Powers Must Win the AI Deployment Race
The article argues that middle powers such as the UK and Canada should abandon the race to build ever‑larger AI models and instead concentrate on a "deployment race"—embedding near‑state‑of‑the‑art AI into industry and defence. It proposes a UK‑Canada Partnership on...
Ratcheting up the Economic Coercion on Japan; Mixed Holiday Economic Data; Germany's Merz Arrives in Beijing; US-China; AI; Political Education...
China’s Ministry of Commerce escalated economic pressure on Japan by adding 20 Japanese firms to its export control list and another 20 to a watch list, targeting dual‑use items. Foreign Minister Wang Yi intensified rhetoric, accusing Japan of harboring ambitions...
Eight Questions (and Expert Answers) on What’s Next for US Tariff Policy
President Donald Trump announced a 10 percent tariff on most imports, revising his earlier 15 percent target. The move follows a Supreme Court decision that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president authority to impose such duties. Experts...
Monetary Policy Committee Policy Rate Likely to Remain Unchanged
The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% during Wednesday’s meeting, buoyed by a stronger‑than‑expected 2.5% year‑on‑year GDP growth in Q4 2025 and a clearer political environment after the election. Economists...
BoT Upgrades Thai GDP Forecast After Robust Q4
The Bank of Thailand raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 1.9%, up from 1.5%, after a stronger‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter performance. Governor Vitai Ratanakorn stressed that tighter coordination between fiscal stimulus and monetary easing is essential to move the economy toward...
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ANALYSIS: Trump Tariff Snotklap Is a Jolt of Note for SA’s Economy
The US Supreme Court rebuked President Trump’s broad tariff authority, prompting a 10% across‑the‑board duty that replaces the 30% reciprocal tariff South Africa faced. The reduction levels the playing field for SA exporters, while gold surged to a three‑week high...
PBOC Buying $100B Monthly to Curb Yuan Surge
The mandarins at the PBOC are in a difficult spot -- a faster pace of CNY appreciation against the dollar has convinced Chinese exporters to bring funds back home, and driven the need to buy $100b a month (give or...
Ukrainians Don’t Want to Be Resilient. Putin Has Given Them No Other Choice.
The article argues that Ukrainian resilience is not a voluntary virtue but a forced response to Vladimir Putin’s relentless invasion, which seeks to erase Ukraine’s national identity. While global media celebrates the population’s courage, the resilience narrative can mask the urgent...
Five Probable Paths to End Ukraine War
As the conflict enters its fifth year, I’ve mapped the most credible pathways to how it ends: ceasefire, collapse, escalation... Five scenarios. Assigned probabilities. Clear drivers and risk implications. My latest Substack is below, or the link is in my bio. https://open.substack.com/pub/geopoliticalguy/p/how-the-war-in-ukraine-ends?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
Eli Lilly's 2025 Irish Tax Bill Doubles U.S.
Whoah Nellie. Looks like Ireland's list of its top 3 corporate tax papers will need to be updated for 2025 ... Eli Lilly reported paying $6.6b to Ireland in 2025 (2x its US federal income tax payments) https://t.co/MEw7WMzPft
India Is Conducting Exercise for Mapping Import Reliance
India’s Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) has launched an exercise to map import reliance by cataloguing goods that lack domestic manufacturing across all ministries. The initiative will compile five‑year public procurement data, targeting the $650 billion import...
France Revives Interventionist
Paging President Macron as well -- Old fashioned imbalances are back, as is intervention (now done through the back door) ... which sets the ground work for France to try to actually achieve something at its G-7
Government Allows Export of 25 Lakh Tonnes of Wheat
The Indian government has approved a limited export of 25 lakh metric tonnes of wheat and an additional five lakh tonnes of wheat products, despite the overall export ban remaining in force. The decision, taken in January and notified by...