Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
India and Israel Sign Tech and Cyber Security Pacts During Modi's Trip
During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit, India and Israel signed multiple agreements to deepen cooperation in technology and cybersecurity. The pacts create a joint innovation fund, enable real‑time cyber‑threat intelligence sharing, and launch collaborative projects in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and digital health. The deals were announced amid heightened Middle‑East tensions over a potential U.S. strike on Iran, underscoring the strategic timing of the partnership. Both governments framed the accords as a way to bolster resilience against regional cyber threats.
Shadow Partners: China’s Collaboration with Terrorist Groups to Plunder Venezuela’s Strategic Minerals (Dialogo Americas – February 24, 2026)
Investigative reporting reveals that Chinese firms are profiting from the illicit extraction of Venezuela’s “black sands” – coltan, niobium and tin – by partnering with armed groups. The minerals travel via river and land routes into Colombia, where fraudulent paperwork...
Balancing Rates Drives Predictable Credit Cycles
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
The Global Questions Series - Number 27: The Butterfly Effect
The Global Questions Series explores the Butterfly Effect, showing how tiny diplomatic signals or policy tweaks can cascade into major geopolitical outcomes. It explains that initial conditions—power balances, leadership psychology, and economic interdependence—shape the trajectory of international systems. By contrasting...
India's Gen X Pegged to Consume $500 Billion Worth of Goods, Services by FY30: RedSeer
India’s Generation X is projected to spend over $500 billion on goods and services by FY 30, according to RedSeer. The cohort’s spending will be led by preventive healthcare ($73 billion, 17% CAGR) and nutraceuticals ($20 billion, 25% CAGR). Premiumisation will also drive growth in...
Welcome Words
Bruegel and the India International Centre hosted a multi‑day forum in Brussels to dissect the newly signed EU‑India Free Trade Agreement and its broader strategic implications. Sessions covered global challenges such as climate change, AI governance, and shifting trade dynamics,...
Food Processing Minister Paswan Raises Concerns Regarding ‘False Narrative’ Against Processed Food by Influencers
India’s Food Processing Minister Chirag Paswan warned that social‑media influencers are propagating a false narrative that processed foods are unhealthy, harming industry growth. Speaking at the ANVESH‑2026 conference, he urged a coordinated effort, including a national campaign and influencer partnerships,...
Milei’s Economy: From Surf the Wave to Kick the Can
Javier Milei’s liberal‑market agenda has sparked a sharp divide in Argentina, with early macro data showing a modest rebound while safety‑net programs crumble for the poor. Supporters hail the reforms as a break from historic boom‑bust cycles, whereas critics warn...
India's Energy Demand to Surpass US by 2040s and China by 2060s, Report Reveals
Shell India’s new scenarios sketch projects that India’s total energy demand will outpace the United States in the 2040s and overtake China by the 2060s, driven by rapid economic and population growth. The report shows the fossil‑fuel share in the...
Armenia’s Nuclear Choice Carries Heavy Debt Trade-Offs, Says GlobalSource
Armenia is negotiating a U.S.-backed small modular reactor (SMR) program that could add up to 30% of GDP to its public debt in a worst‑case scenario. The $9 billion figure reflects a sovereign‑guaranteed loan rather than direct foreign investment, contrasting with...
India, Israel FTA: Next Round of Talks in May
India and Israel will reconvene for the next round of free‑trade agreement negotiations in May 2026, following a constructive first round held during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit. The initial talks covered goods, services, digital trade, rules of origin,...
Government Panel Said to Review Future of Key GM Food Crop
India’s ministerial panel will examine field trials of a genetically modified rapeseed (mustard) variety, a step that could reshape the country’s cautious stance on GM food crops. The review comes as the Supreme Court prepares to revisit a pending case...
TSMC Fuels Taiwan's $70B Quarterly Surplus, 33% GDP
A day that was a long time coming -- TSMC's dominance of chip manufacturing led Taiwan to post a $70b quarterly current account surplus in q4. That is $280b annualized, or a surplus of ~ 33% of GDP Never...
China and Iran Queue up to Copy Belarus-Russia Regional Blueprint, Lukashenko Claims
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced that both China and Iran have expressed interest in replicating the Belarus‑Russia Union State's region‑to‑region cooperation framework. The declaration came during the Supreme State Council in Moscow, co‑chaired by Vladimir Putin, as the Union State...
Panama Growth Hinges on Cobre Panama Restart: Report
Panama’s economy expanded 4% in 2025, driven mainly by services, while manufacturing lagged at 0.46%. Business group SIP says reopening First Quantum’s Cobre Panama copper mine could lift GDP growth to 6% by 2027, versus a 3.7% slowdown if the mine...
Nigerian Government Accused of Electoral Act Loophole
President Bola Tinubu signed an amendment to Nigeria's Electoral Act that mandates electronic transmission of results but retains a manual fallback if technical issues arise. The law also omits a real‑time publishing requirement, prompting opposition parties and civil society to...
Capital Plan Tests Nerves in Brasília
The Federal District government has introduced a bill to inject up to BRL 6 billion into BRB Banco de Brasília following the Master Bank fraud, allowing borrowing from the Credit Guarantee Fund or other lenders. The proposal also reduces the number of...
Loan Note: The Rise of the Zombie Funds; Record Year for Emerging Market Private Credit
The loan‑note briefing highlights a surge in so‑called “zombie” funds that continue to chase low‑yield opportunities despite deteriorating market conditions. At the same time, emerging‑market private credit achieved a record deployment year, reflecting strong investor demand for higher returns. Arctos’s...
Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Geneva Pause for Break as IAEA Chief Joins Consultations
Iranian and American negotiators held the third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on February 26, briefly pausing before resuming later that day. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Busaidi, who is mediating the talks, described the atmosphere as "creative and positive." The International...
MOSCOW BLOG: Russia as a Supermarket Dressed up as a Country
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced a sweeping fiscal overhaul, lowering the oil‑price budget rule threshold by $1 each year for five years to shift revenue reliance from oil and gas to domestic consumption. The move follows a sharp drop...
More than 1,000 UK Councillors Sign Palestine Pledge as Local Polls Loom
More than 1,100 English councillors have signed the Palestine Solidarity Campaign’s “Councillor Pledge for Palestine,” urging councils to adopt BDS‑aligned policies ahead of the May 2026 local elections. The signatories are led by the Green Party (387), Labour (375) and...
What’s Next for China’s Yuan Payment System? Adviser Banks on Close Trade Partners
Former ICBC chairman Chen Siqing urged China to embed its Cross‑border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) into bilateral trade frameworks, especially with Belt‑Road and RCEP partners, as geopolitical tensions heighten reliance on non‑US payment networks. He highlighted CIPS’s rapid growth, processing...
Record $50B ETF Put Wave Signals AI Fear
Record Put Trading on ETFs Seen as AI Victims From BBG: “Almost $50 billion in notional put trading so far this month, significantly outpacing other episodes over the past two decades.” “Themes such as senior loans, consumer exposure, financials and health care. The...
China Lithium Prices Surge as Zimbabwe Suspends Raw Mineral Exports
China’s lithium carbonate futures surged after Zimbabwe suspended all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange contract jumped 6.07% to 178,020 yuan, having peaked above 9% earlier in the session. Zimbabwe, the continent’s top lithium producer, shipped...
Ghana to Channel Artisanal Gold Into Formal Trade to Boost Revenue
Ghana announced an artisanal and small‑scale mining (ASM) gold formalisation programme that will channel roughly 127 metric tons of gold per year into official trade. The Ghana Gold Board, via the newly created GoldBod, will purchase a minimum of 2.45 tons weekly,...
China's 90% Model Threatens 20 Industries—Act Now
My new book China's 90% Model launches March 17 To mark the launch of my book, I am hosting an exclusive session for my LinkedIn community. Are You Aware? Do You Know? In one hour I will take you through: 🔹What China's...
Tshisekedi Prioritises Gold Sector Reform to Boost State Revenue
President Félix Tshisekedi announced a comprehensive reform of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's gold sector, targeting the massive revenue loss from smuggling and informal trade. The plan, presented at a Council of Ministers meeting on 20 February 2026, seeks...
Collateral Economic Damage in Russia-Ukraine Crossfire
The U.S. State Department lodged a formal protest with Ukraine after a drone strike hit Russia’s Black Sea oil terminal in Novorossiysk, damaging American economic interests. Ukrainian Ambassador Olha Stefanishyna confirmed the warning, urging Kyiv to refrain from targeting U.S....
London Gateway Closes in on Post-Brexit UK Port Leadership
London Gateway, DP World’s flagship UK terminal, is on track to become the nation’s leading container port after handling 3 million TEU in 2025 and surpassing Felixstowe in Q3 2025. The port’s rapid growth stems from a £1.5 bn initial outlay followed...
Agoa Extension Brings Relief, yet Policy Uncertainty Clouds US-Africa Trade Future
The U.S. Senate trimmed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) renewal to a single‑year extension, sparking optimism among exporters but deepening long‑term uncertainty. Simultaneously, Washington imposed tariffs of 10‑30% on key African products, and non‑tariff measures continue to raise...
India Braces for Unusually Hot March that Can Put Key Crops at Risk, Sources Say
India is expected to experience one of its warmest Marches on record, with temperatures projected up to 7 °C above normal in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and parts of Madhya Pradesh. These states produce more than 80 % of the nation’s...
Zimbabwe's Lithium Ban Likely Short‑Lived, Minimal GDP Impact
The Zimbabwe export ban seems to be due to transfer pricing, ie producers understating grade/value of exports. Similar to what we saw from the Chinese company that operated Bald Hill in Australia a few years ago. On my calcs, average Zimbabwe...
Trade Doesn't Flow on Roads − It Flows on Data
Africa’s trade potential hinges on overhauling its digital infrastructure, not just fixing ports or roads. Current IoT systems rely on permanent roaming SIMs and single‑core networks that crumble at borders, inflating costs and risk. Surveys show operators are shifting to...
UK Wants to Ban Firms From Insuring Russian Oil
The United Kingdom announced it will back a full ban on maritime services – including insurance and shipping – for Russian crude and refined oil, moving beyond the existing $44.10‑per‑barrel price‑cap rule. Trade Minister Chris Bryant said the UK will...
Celio’s Francois Gomez Bets on Bigger Stores, Honest Pricing and Sharper India Play
At the ET Retail GIRS 2026 conference, Celio COO Francois Gomez outlined a new growth plan for India, emphasizing larger‑format stores and a shift away from discount‑driven sales. The brand will prioritize honest pricing and its core apparel DNA—suits, polos, shirts and...
Private Credit in Emerging Markets Surges to Record Levels:
Private credit allocations to emerging markets hit record levels in 2025‑2026, shifting capital from traditional hubs to cities like Mumbai, São Paulo, Mexico City, and Jakarta. The surge is driven by bank retrenchment, robust demographic growth, and attractive relative yields compared...
Ukraine Is Losing the War
Four years after Russia launched its full‑scale invasion, a draft U.S. peace plan proposes recognizing Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk as Russian‑controlled and allowing Russia to keep occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Kyiv, led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, has rejected any...
China’s Role: Minor Export Market, Major Input Supplier, CNY Undervalued
It means a lot less than this. As an export market China is way less important than the US to Germany/ the EA. As a source of consumer & intermediate inputs China is of course a massive supplier,...
Thousands of Spanish Farmers Protest EU-Mercosur Trade Pact
Yesterday, THOUSANDS of farmers took to the streets of Madrid, Spain. They protested the EU-Mercosur Trade Pact. https://t.co/XqvZrcC16q
Southeast Asia’s Grab Finally Turns a Profit
Southeast Asian super‑app Grab reported its first full‑year profit in 2025, posting a $200 million net gain after narrowing losses from $1.7 billion in 2022 to $158 million in 2024. Revenue climbed roughly 20% to $3.4 billion as transaction volume rose 21% to $22 billion...
Indonesia Likely to Miss US Farm Import Commitments
"Indonesia may struggle to deliver on new US farm import promises, traders say" 😲 https://t.co/EJEVp0S8sc
Nasdaq Bends Index Rules to Lure SpaceX IPOs
Nasdaq is contorting its own index rules to court the IPOs of SpaceX et al, and @thekrazykobra brings the 🔥 https://t.co/ExpsatLZ6h https://t.co/VjWaHmMJYd
Brazil's Trade Surplus Ignored, Real Remains Undervalued
No other EM has transformed itself in the past decade quite like Brazil, which has shifted its trade balance into a structural surplus. This shift has gotten no recognition in markets whatsoever. The Real remains deeply discounted compared to pre-COVID... https://t.co/1DJ37H8dXi...
Dollar Hits Post‑Election Low, Signals Ongoing Debasement
The Dollar yesterday made a new post-election low against EM (black line). Except for the tariff turmoil in Apr. '25, USD has been falling in a straight line against EM currencies. This is the best leading indicator for Dollar direction....
Turkey's January Trade Deficit Hits Near‑worst, Lira Tumbles
Turkey's trade deficit for January - out today - shows further deterioration. Chart below shows the trade deficit every January from 2000 - 2026. The 2026 number is the worst deficit except for 3 prior years (2018, 2022, 2023). This...
Brazil Real Rebounds to 4.50 as Dollar Weakens
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Brazil's Real went from $/BRL 6.00 to 4.50 in a few months as rising commodity prices lifted the terms of trade. Now the Real is gaining along with most other EMs as Dollar...
U.S. Sends 100 Advisors to Train Nigeria Post‑Airstrike
Following the Christmas Day U.S. airstrike on a jihadist target in northern Nigeria, the U.S. has deployed 100 troops, more so advisors, to train local counterterrorism forces in Nigeria. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/uIZSP3p5af #nigeria #usmilitary #geopolitics https://t.co/j1BH1u6PXG
IMF Confirms US Fiscal Boost Exceeds Estimates
People keep telling me I'm wrong about the US fiscal boost this year, but the IMF just published this.. thats bigger than our estimates btw https://t.co/HKAuw6DenI
UBS Predicts 20% Chinese Stock Rally on Inflation
Chinese stocks may gain another 20% as rising inflation expectations translate into better earnings, according to UBS Securities Asia https://t.co/X14DnpuQpY
Trump's Pressure Pushes Modi to Diversify India’s Trade Partners
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to Trump’s threats and tariffs, Modi has pivoted and opened India’s doors to Japan, Brazil, Canada & the EU. MODI IS FASTER ON HIS FEET THAN YOU THINK. https://t.co/I5SCjNBPfI